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Sun, Mar 14, 2010 - 12:57 PM EST  —  AAPL: 226.60 (+1.10, +0.49%)  |  NASDAQ: 2367.66 (-0.80, -0.03%)

Dvorak predicts Apple among 2010’s ‘winners’ and Microsoft, Dell among ‘losers’
Thursday, December 31, 2009 - 10:12 AM EST

"The biggest hint of things to come in 2010 and beyond are tied up with three specific pieces of information that appeared near the end of 2009," John C. Dvorak writes for MarketWatch. "The first two were the iPhone sales figures and the iPhone Internet usage rate. The third was the fact that Amazon.com Inc.'s Kindle was the No. 1 high-tech Christmas gift."

MacDailyNews Take: Amazon's charade, er... Kindle was Amazon's "bestseller based on units ordered from November 15 through December 19" in their electronics category, followed by Apple's iPod touch 8 GB, with the Garmin nuvi 260W 4.3-inch GPS in third place. As always, no specific sale figures were provided by Amazon, so we have no idea if Kindle, which available only via Amazon, outsold the specific 8GB iPod touch model on Amazon.com by 1 unit or 10 million during the Nov. 15 - Dec. 19 period. Perhaps tellingly, Amazon has never given any meaningful hard numbers regarding Kindle sales. Anyone who swallows Amazon's Kindle PR is a rube.

Dvorak continues, "2010 will probably be a moribund year for the likes of Dell Inc. and Hewlett-Packard Co. insofar as PC sales are concerned. And I suspect continued success for Apple Inc. if and when it rolls out a tablet computer which seems to be a giant iPhone of some sort."

Here are my predicted winners and loser [sic] for the upcoming year:

Winners
• Intel Corp.
• Apple Corp. [sic] "The company is on fire and will continue its hitting streak if the Apple pad computer has the same impact as the iPhone. This winning streak should take the stock close to $300 if not higher."
• Nintendo Ltd.
• Google Inc.
• ValueClick Inc.

Losers:
• Dell Inc.: "Dell cannot get a break and I cannot see the company righting the ship next year. Its entry into the phone business won't help since the company has no core competency in this area. It has tried to follow Apple's lead before with a music player and got nowhere. The company tried to spice up its image buy buying Alienware and could not manage to integrate the operation and let it languish. Its ultra-thin notebook looks great when closed but ridiculous when opened. More recently the acquisition of Perot will tax the management to an extreme as most weird mergers do."
• Oracle Corp.
• Microsoft Corp.: "Once the bloom is off Windows 7 and the stock tails off I cannot see the company doing much more than squandering its cash reserve while continuing to milk the cash cow. The executive judgment at the top that would have paid Yahoo Inc. $35 or so a share is unsettling. That deal could have broke [sic] the company for good. Other dumb deals lurk to entrap this company."
• Yahoo


Full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: "Microsoft executive judgment" is an oxymoron approaching the level of "Microsoft Works."

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Dec 31, 09 - 10:17 am Comment from: Think

Why MarketWatch pays Dvorak to write articles that someone in junior high could write is beyond me.

Dec 31, 09 - 10:17 am Comment from: Jubei

I think Kindle sales are BS. Amazon has yet to provide any hard numbers with any of their BS press releases in that POS.

Dec 31, 09 - 10:25 am Comment from: Spark

I think I've seen a Kindle in the wild. Maybe one.

Dec 31, 09 - 10:26 am Comment from: Connor MacBook

Dvorak shares my view that the tablet should be referred to as a pad, as in iPad (not to be confused with max-i-pad!)

Dec 31, 09 - 10:26 am Comment from: Spark

Oh, wait a minute... That was a Candle in the Wind I saw.
Never seen a Kindle.

Dec 31, 09 - 10:31 am Comment from: Big Als MBP

Amazon says Kindle e-books outsold paper books this Christmas, implying that all Kindle e-books were sold to Kindle users when the vast majority were sold to iPod touch/iPhone users.

Every trick in the book to make Kindle sales look much better than they are in reality.

Dec 31, 09 - 10:37 am Comment from: Figurative

Wow.... I actually agreed with the majority of Dvorak's statements. Looks like 2010 will be a weird one.

Dec 31, 09 - 10:45 am Comment from: rws

Predicting that Apple will do well? Gees, he really went out on a limb with that one.

Dec 31, 09 - 10:48 am Comment from: Demon

I think, Amazon is faking the Kindle sales ranking. By making their product the top seller it gets them press and free publicity. If I were in charge of Sony with a competing e-book reader I'd be screaming fraud and unfair competition until Amazon was forced to become transparent on the real Kindle sales numbers. By Amazon claiming the Kindle was the #1 selling electronic device on Amazon and then not providing transparent data to backup it's claim, Amazon is basically doing the same thing cereal makers do when they claim that a cereal is heart health because it's made of whole grain and then forget about the fact the cereal contains 5 times the recommended sugars, 9 times the recommended salt and 24 times the recommended fats for a breakfast cereal. Tastes good, but is not really heart healthy or a dietary winner either. Lier, lier pants on fire!! Jeff.

Dec 31, 09 - 11:02 am Comment from: Lucky Dog, Silicon Valley

I have friends, colleagues and wife who are Apple shareholders, Mac users but use Kindles too. The common denominator is that they travel extensively. One carries about 20 book titles per trip.

Dec 31, 09 - 11:06 am Comment from: Gabriel

It can't be a coincidence that "Kindle" rhymes with "swindle". I also call BS on Amazon's Kindle claims.

Dec 31, 09 - 11:17 am Comment from: Britney's Postpartum Sister™

i've been surprised by the number of Kindles i've seen—it's averaging about 2 a month. i'm on the east coast and take the bus and subway to and from work, so that's a pretty wide pool to sample from.

at any rate, i'd welcome to ability to read a text book and use a workbook. i do so now with my phone and the kindle app, but it's definitely less than ideal. at least while i'm back in school i'd want an Apple tablet, and can see why others may want a Kindle.

Dec 31, 09 - 11:17 am Comment from: zmarc

The problem with Amazon's sales ranking is two-fold:

1) The Kindle can *only* be bought on Amazon and nowhere else in the world. All the other electronics (including iPods) are so at tens of thousands of retail outlets and hundreds of other web stores, so sales are split between many vendors. That makes it seem as though the Kindle was hot stuff, but compared to just about anything else, it is would be selling in handful amounts of spread among a much of vendors.

2) Things like iPods are given different product numbers for every model, even color differences. Thus it's less likely a single model will outsell Kindles, though if you gathered all the iPods together Apple's selling far more than the Kindle.

Dec 31, 09 - 11:18 am Comment from: zmarc

@Lucky Dog:

Only 20 books? I have ten times that many on my iPhone!

Dec 31, 09 - 11:23 am Comment from: NHL

I looked up "Bandwagon Jumper" in the dictionary, and there was a picture of John C. Dvorak.

Dec 31, 09 - 11:26 am Comment from: MCCFR

Ooooh, an opinion from John Dvorak.

Sadly, our corpulent (not that I'm in a position to talk) Hawaiian shirt wearing hit-whore friend has written too much utter baloney in the past for me to take him or his day-to-day opinions seriously.

And please don't use the "broken clock being right twice a day" thing at me: that's not skill or intelligence, that's luck (or a badly maintained clock).

He was a fsckwit in 2008, he's been a fsckwit for most of this year and he'll still be a fsckwit tomorrow.

Dec 31, 09 - 11:26 am Comment from: Rankin, NS Canada

The only point I disagree with would be Oracle. I may be wrong or simply wishing but... As a DBA for a mid-range IT firm in Halifax Nova Scotia, I see Oracle having a major impact on the database sector in the coming years.

With the acquisition of Sun Microsystems, Oracle now controls the top choice high end enterprise/business RDBMS and Sun's MySQL, along with ZFS, Java, and Solaris Oracle has more guns at it's disposal to turn the company around for the better.

Just my .02 cents

Cheers,

Dec 31, 09 - 12:15 pm Comment from: dave smith

Dvorak is correct? Weird, this coming from the same person who said iphone would be a "dud".

I guess the windbag smells the writing on his ass..

Dec 31, 09 - 12:20 pm Comment from: Harvey

Apple has not announced that it is introducing ANY product in January, be it a tablet, a pill, a slate, or a paving stone. It's all rumors.

If they aren't planning on introducing a tablet, they'd better whip one up in a hurry, or they are doomed!

I bet they are relieved that there are no rumors that they are going to terraform Mars.

Dec 31, 09 - 12:22 pm Comment from: KillBill

Dang!

Dvorak says Apple will do well in 2011... sell your stock fast, this guy is always wrong.

Sad day when conventional dumbdom is taken seriously!

Dec 31, 09 - 12:29 pm Comment from: Mr. Reeee

It's so obvious that even a bloviating dinosaur like Dvorak couldn't be wrong.

Dec 31, 09 - 12:39 pm Comment from: ZachCUBE

Dvorak Can Suck It! Too late A**Hole

Dec 31, 09 - 12:48 pm Comment from: x

Dvorak is a seriel dumbass and moron only exceeded by that clueless bitch Pelosi. He is accidentally right this time about 'Apple Corp'.

Dec 31, 09 - 12:52 pm Comment from: trex67

He's still a whore, and I refuse to click on his link. Apple's flourished despite all of his predictions and advice - he simply has no idea what he's talking about. He should retire.

Dec 31, 09 - 12:58 pm Comment from: qka

Dvorak's next gig will be weather forecasting.

He will predict that the winter will be cold, and that the summer will be hot.

Dec 31, 09 - 01:15 pm Comment from: Grifterus

Oracle?

I don't see it. I mean, they have marketshare, some good technology, and so does Sun (I see Java as the crown jewel).

MySQL? I don't really think Oracle gives a damn about t, other than increasing market share. It's open source, regardless, so the community will work on it.

I personally hate MySQL. I like Oracle DB, but it's way too expensive. My personal choice is PostgreSQL

Now again, it's Dvorak....

Dec 31, 09 - 01:57 pm Comment from: Peter

I'm amused that when Amazon's sales figures show the iPod stomping on everything, they're gospel. When that's not the case, Amazon's sales figures are questionable at best.

C'mon, kids. Let's try to be consistent.

My boss has a kindle and he likes it. His biggest complaint is that he can't conveniently search for information in a book. Since he has lots of reference-type books, this can be a problem.

But for straight reading, he loves it.

Dec 31, 09 - 02:02 pm Comment from: Road Warrior (nli)

Gee, Dvorak must have gotten a flashback. Don't be fooled guys this isn't a Enderlere here. 90% of his stuff is a knee jerk jolt, but as they say even a broken clock tells the correct time twice a day....unless of course it is digital or 2400 h, then it is once.

Dec 31, 09 - 02:18 pm Comment from: Bandit Bill

The Kindle is the most GIFTED item. Meaning people wouldn't actually buy one for themselves. Same as digital picture frames. Highly gifted, seldom purchased for personal use. It's highly a seasonal (Chirstmas) product.

Dec 31, 09 - 02:29 pm Comment from: jonricmd

Along the lines of Dvorak almost always being 180 degrees off of predictions, I guess it's time to buy Microsoft and Dell stock.


NOT!

Dec 31, 09 - 02:39 pm Comment from: TRRosen

Oh crap we're screwed now!

Dec 31, 09 - 02:45 pm Comment from: Ray

Let's declare Dvorak a loser.

Just my $0.02

Dec 31, 09 - 03:00 pm Comment from: iSteve

I know one person with a Kindle. She had an iPhone for a week before going back to a BlackBerry.

Dec 31, 09 - 03:43 pm Comment from: G4Dualie

Chris Seibold of Applematters predicted there would be no more Macs in 2010.

"The era of the all-in-one hardware and software solution has been gone for at least the last ten years, even though Apple hasn’t quite caught on yet. Here are five reasons why Apple will catch on and abandon Mac hardware by the start of the next decade." — Chris Seibold March 7, 2006

1. Vista
2. No more cat names
3 The switch to Intel
4. The iPod
5. Dollars and Cents

Dec 31, 09 - 04:01 pm Comment from: MarkyMark

Its the ol' stopped clock, right twice a day again...

Dec 31, 09 - 04:27 pm Comment from: Ting

I saw a new Kindle on Boxing Day. It was the smaller one. Very thin, well built but disappointing display.

Felt really sorry for the owner given Apples' impending tablet launch...

Dec 31, 09 - 04:53 pm Comment from: derekcurrie

What pad?
What tablet?
Has there ever been a more inane conversation in the history of Apple?
And I wouldn't want one even if every cute little wish list item was packed into the vacuous thing.
It's a lousy idea, a lousy rumor.

Dec 31, 09 - 05:31 pm Comment from: edward

well, what can I say? he is a journalist or blogger. he was once long time lover for MS. now, he applauses for Apple because this company is doing very well unlikely he predicted before? he was Apple hater. it is so weird how this guy suddenly turned to Apple. you know, all journalists are cowards (they are depended on advantage what they could get. I hate these kind of people. even though we know that MS is not doing well. but who knows? the situation will be on its side in 2010.

Dec 31, 09 - 06:31 pm Comment from: Ampar

John C. Dvorak: "The Macintosh uses an experimental pointing device called a "mouse." There is no evidence that people want to use these things."

Dec 31, 09 - 06:32 pm Comment from: Ampar

P.S. Dvorak once squatted at the ground determined to crap and missed.

Dec 31, 09 - 07:06 pm Comment from: Ankh

I have a kindle…er, kindle app on my iPhone. And didn't pay a penny for it. Hahaha.

Dec 31, 09 - 07:17 pm Comment from: Why Wait?

That already happened in 2009.

Dvorak doesn't have to wait for a year to say it.

Dec 31, 09 - 07:57 pm Comment from: Bolleke

Bad news for Apple, Dvorak predictions are always wrong!

Dec 31, 09 - 11:07 pm Comment from: Macrelated

@derekcurrie
"What pad?
What tablet?
Has there ever been a more inane conversation in the history of Apple?
And I wouldn't want one even if every cute little wish list item was packed into the vacuous thing.
It's a lousy idea, a lousy rumor."

(.....cute little wish list item......) Even if it had teddy bears on it's frame?

vacuous? Really?

vacuous |ˈvakyəwəs|
adjective
having or showing a lack of thought or intelligence; mindless : a vacuous smile | vacuous slogans.
• archaic empty.

Exactly what do you base that judgement on?

Jan 01, 10 - 12:21 pm Comment from: Webmasters apprentice

Why did they Choose 11/19 thru 12/19 to arrive at tip seller for these dates? Shouldn't they just post for a month, say November? Because the had to slide sort the date rang to find a period where it actually did lead in sales. What's the old saying? Statistics figure.

Jan 04, 10 - 09:38 pm Comment from: Blitzteh

Add Nikia in the "loser" category

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