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Thu, Mar 18, 2010 - 09:05 PM EDT  —  AAPL: 224.65 (+0.53, +0.24%)  |  NASDAQ: 2391.28 (+2.19, +0.09%)

$800 MacBook rumor knocks Apple stock for a loop
Tuesday, October 14, 2008 - 03:49 PM EDT

"Blame Duncan Riley," Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune.

"Last Wednesday, he posted an 'exclusive' on his blog — The Inquisitr — under the headline: 'Apple to launch $800 laptop.' Although his scoop was unsourced, the news that Apple was set to announce its cheapest notebook computer ever was picked up by Apple blogs and mainstream publications around the world — including the New York Times. Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi even published a spreadsheet calculating how much an $800 laptop would increase Apple’s available market," Elmer-DeWitt reports.

"So when Steve Jobs unveiled Apple’s new line of laptops on Tuesday with starting prices of $1,299 for the MacBook and $1,999 for the MacBook Pro, you could almost hear the sound of Apple’s (AAPL) shares falling," Elmer-DeWitt reports. "What this means is that Apple is not — with one exception — lowering prices in order to grow its market share... The one exception is the original white MacBook — the best-selling MacBook ever, according to Jobs — which sold for $1,099 when it was introduced two years ago and will now sell for $999."

"'Apple is very good at pricing,' says Stephen Baker, vice president of industry analysis for The NPD Group, who believes Apple was right to hold the prices of the new MacBooks steady. 'They haven’t run out of headroom yet. I expect they will eventually find a way to build out a line that will come in at $799, but they’ll do it in their own way and at their own pace,'" Elmer-DeWitt reports.

Full article here.

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Oct 14, 08 - 03:52 pm Comment from: Macromancer

OR maybe that the entire NASDAQ rally has fizzled today could be the reason.

I find it a little hard to believe that the entire investment community watches Steve's keynotes and makes buying and selling decisions based on price points.

Oct 14, 08 - 04:01 pm Comment from: The Dude

Macromancer... you beat me to it. The whole stock market is shaky.

"Sometimes you hit the bar, and sometime the bar hits you."

The Dude abides.

Oct 14, 08 - 04:02 pm Comment from: Me In LA

FSCK-ing ANALysts are the death of our free market.
Dishits with blogs and "news"
Oh if AlGore was dead, he'd be turning in his grave...

Oct 14, 08 - 04:03 pm Comment from: Andrew

I might be mistaken...but it seems to me that Steve announced the $999 MacBook plastic version. While it is not the aluminum and glass, the MacBook line starts lower than $1299.

Oct 14, 08 - 04:06 pm Comment from: jjjj

and of course, turned out the 899 price point was for the new LED cinema display... damn rumormongers!

Oct 14, 08 - 04:09 pm Comment from: TowerTone

"Apple stock for a loop"
does that make it a fruit loop?....

Oct 14, 08 - 04:10 pm Comment from: Predrag

Today's drop of AAPL is a little bit of both; all the market indices started high and went down from there, finishing the day submerged. Tech much more so than the rest. AAPL, with its high Beta, had a more pronounced swings, ending down som 6%. A year ago, such a daily move (in either direction) would be enormous; these days, when DOW can tack on 10% in a single day (or lose as much), 6% no longer generates news reports.

In general, it has been a habit of AAPL to go down on the day of Steve's keynote, so today wasn't much different. For AAPL share holders, we have the earnings report coming up shortly, which has some chance of lifting the stock up. While normally it tanks after they announce low guidance, October may be an exception, since they may guide well for the December quarter. They did last year and stock took off. But then again, last year, we sill had Washington Mutual and Lehman Brothers doing business as usual...

Oct 14, 08 - 04:11 pm Comment from: Jimbo von Winskinheimer

In all, these are only temporary speed bumps in the AAPL pps. They went up a bit on the rumor and went down a bit on the news. Unless you are trying to time an entry or exit into the stock, it won't make much of a long term impact. Further, we have a week until earnings, which will have a much larger and longer lasting impact.

Oct 14, 08 - 04:11 pm Comment from: PaKo

And had the price been announced as low as rumored, we'd be hearing fretting about how lower profit margins might reduce revenue.

Oct 14, 08 - 04:19 pm Comment from: ken1w

The Apple Store refurb page has the White MacBook for $849 (but it has a combo drive instead of a SuperDrive). No doubt that price will drop to $799 before Apple is done selling them as refurbs.

Oct 14, 08 - 04:21 pm Comment from: Maconymous

Consumers will let Apple know with their wallets this holiday season as to whether the company can keep doing what it did to consumers and its base today.

Oct 14, 08 - 04:22 pm Comment from: Demon

Actual the price of AAPL is in line with the market today. Investors don't follow product pricing. There has been some profit taking in the market today, and Profit taking on AAPL as well. Some of the stock blocks that sold last week for under $100.00 have been re sold for a profit. The Shorts have been on the sideline with Apple sp far today, which has allowed the stock to remain over $100.00.

AAPLs earns report is scheduled on Tuesday 10-21-08 at 2PM, This is going to be the big indicator on how investors feel about Apple Strategy for the going Christmas Quarter and for weathering the Economic down turn.

I think Apple is going to do what the did last time innovate their way through the down with little to no reduction in sales or growth. If they can make it on that strategy I think we'll witness a major revolution in Apple's business.

The Questions are can Dell survive? Will Microsoft dump their Software Businesses in pursuit of beating Google or will they abandon dreams of out doing Google? What other software companies will be borged by Oracle? What new innovative tech does Apple have up it's sleeve for Mac World 2009? Can AAPL prop up the entire Tech sector for the next few years?

For answers to these burning Questions and much, much more stay glued to the internet.

Oct 14, 08 - 04:23 pm Comment from: Storyboard

Today Apple did a milestone and dipped below a grand with their super selling laptop. $799 is a pure Fortune fantasy, and the guy who wrote the article should apologize for writing something so ignorant.

Oct 14, 08 - 04:33 pm Comment from: JRA

I'm ready to track down the bloggers and the wack-job analysts that establish baseless rumors about Apple that has added to AAPL stock volatility - and give them a good swift kick in the nuts.

Oct 14, 08 - 04:37 pm Comment from: Cubert

Did anyone else notice that all the new notebooks have an option for a glare-free screen (not matte, though)?

Take that anti-glossy crusaders!

And, stop polluting our forums!

Oct 14, 08 - 04:38 pm Comment from: EvilMonkey

Tell him what you think.

Go to his blog:

http://www.inquisitr.com/4834/exclusive-apple-to-launch-800-laptop/

And rate the article ONE STAR.

Show these fuckers that they need to source and research their "rumors".

Oct 14, 08 - 04:44 pm Comment from: Old Guy With A Beard

The fact that the MacBook now lacks firewire cuts off millions of potential buyers who own firewire-based video cameras.

Unless there is something I'm missing here, I believe this decision to abandon firewire on the most popular Mac is just a plain bad decision.

Oct 14, 08 - 04:45 pm Comment from: papasmack

a $2000 MBPRO?????? WTF. Come on Apple!. I predict that in 2010 the price of the next MBPRO will actually go be $2500

Oct 14, 08 - 04:53 pm Comment from: Jersey_Trader

The Mac Tablet will be below the $999 MacBook and above the iPod touch. I am looking to see it in the $400 to $800 range.

If there was a $800 MacBook, why would you limit yourself and get a smaller screen. Apple needs about a $200 spreed between the 2 product lines.

Oct 14, 08 - 05:02 pm Comment from: chaz

Have to say it, price points are too high, it will show up very soon in the Apple share numbers, schools and students (college) are going to be priced out due to housing market fiasco. Schools due to falling tax revenues and students due to loss of home equity and student loans.

Apple hasn't assessed the impact in the consumer market from the financial melt down over the last 2 weeks.

Oct 14, 08 - 05:13 pm Comment from: HD Boy

Hey, don't overlook the fact that this white MacBook now will sell for just $899 with a standard, 10% student/teacher or corporate discount! It's not the $799 price many of us hoped for, but it is closer to that $799 price point and a considerable drop for Apple.

Oct 14, 08 - 05:19 pm Comment from: Roger Knights

It wasn't just that AAPL was following the NASDAQ in exaggerated fashion. Instead, as soon as the $999 announcement was made, the stock dropped noticeably in relation to the market. You can see this on the daily chart on MarketWatch by comparing the trendline of NASDAQ to AAPL, here (click on "Compare AAPL to Nasdaq"):
http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/aapl

Nevertheless, I think a $100 price cut will help, and may bring the company the most revenue over the next year or two.

However, I fear that the company may be overlooking the long term. Once users adopt the Mac, they rarely go back. It would be wiser to sacrifice a bit of profit for the next two or three years in order to double their user base. MS isn't stuck with their current OS forever. It could come back, within three years, say, with a powerful, modern OS superior to Unix. The cost would be partial incompatibility with Windows, which would deter most Windows users from adopting it. They'd stick with Windows 7, etc. But many potential Apple customers would be tempted by it. Apple needs to watch its back and not assume its current edge over MS will last. There are lots of really top-flight people at MS, Ozzie can provide the leadership needed. I can see Apple riding for a fall. "Only the paranoid survive."

Oct 14, 08 - 05:23 pm Comment from: MikeR

Kill the Shorts and hang Duncan Riley. Same for Toni.

Oct 14, 08 - 05:32 pm Comment from: Roger Knights

Oops--I meant to say, in the post above the one above, that the current lack of a low-budget MacBook "will bring the company the most profit over the next year or two."

Oct 14, 08 - 05:47 pm Comment from: Roger Knights

PS: This modern OS from MS would not be a continuation of the Windows line, but an alternative to it, for those customers who want an alternative. MS would continue to update Windows.

Oct 14, 08 - 05:55 pm Comment from: TheRealist

I'm out. Bought an HP 17" with TV Tuner, Nvidia 256MB, Blu-Ray, 4GB, Bluetooth, etc. for under $1000. Apple is CRAZY with their prices. I'll dual boot Ubuntu & Windows. As a consumer, it's irrelevant how many pieces the insides are made of.

Oct 14, 08 - 06:19 pm Comment from: AllAboutTheBenjamins

They have the PC/Laptop line hammered out, they have the music line hammered out, they have wireless communications hammered out. What could be next?

The next big thing will be mo-bettah Apple home entertainment gear.

IMHO

Oct 14, 08 - 06:21 pm Comment from: pocketRocket

@TheRealist

Good for you. If that's all you need then great. When my Dell laptop died on me I took the opportunity to get a great MacBook Pro. I dual boot with Vista and Leopard and virtualize XP. In fact XP is definitely snappier. Perhaps due to the 7200 hard disk, 2.4Ghz Core 2 duo and 4Gb of memory. Booting XP in under 15 seconds can only be described as a plus after switching.

Oct 14, 08 - 06:29 pm Comment from: MikeR

@TheRealist
Good for you. Now get out of here and go play in a hp forum.

Oct 14, 08 - 06:32 pm Comment from: Grifterus

Well, you want cheap?

Apple will build top of the class machines.

How much can you build with $800?

I can't say I'm dissapointed. But I don't find a strong reason to switch from my current 15" MacBook Pro (even though the new trackpad looks cool!)

Oct 14, 08 - 06:35 pm Comment from: ZachCube

Uh, Jobs is an ahole and Ives needs someone to help him pronounce aluminum. What the hell was that anyway? Crap what a lame keynote. And quite frankly a little creepy. The laptops are cool though......I guess

Oct 14, 08 - 06:36 pm Comment from: Gabriel

@TheRealist

And with your sub-$1000 machine, what kind of value-added software are you getting? OS X? iLife? Are you getting a built-in iSight camera? Are you getting a multi-touch trackpad? What kind of quality hardware are you getting for under $1000, will it last for 4-6 years? How much crapware will you have to uninstall from it before it's a useable machine? What version of Windows are you getting with it, Vista Basic? Will you have to shell out extra money for a better version of Windows on top of things?

Granted, if the hardware specs you listed are *exactly* what you're looking for, and you're willing to do a lot of extra work to make the machine usable (wipe the HD, partition, install your OS's) then yeah, Apple isn't the company for you. But I don't believe you represent the majority of consumers who simply want to buy a quality laptop that works out of the box without all that hassle.

If you'll pardon the pun, you're comparing Apples to oranges here. wink

Oct 14, 08 - 06:40 pm Comment from: ZachCube

Who here would like a matte screen? ME. Glossy screens suck on laptops. Does Jobs even use this stuff? It's irritating with screen glare.

Oct 14, 08 - 07:33 pm Comment from: jaytee32

I really hope for Mr. Elmer-DeWitt's sake that he doesn't purchase a large block of Apple stock subsequent to his "reliably sourced" rumor of an $800 laptop. One would hate to think that an analyst came up with this story in an attempt to suppress the stock's value.

SEC?

Oct 14, 08 - 07:33 pm Comment from: Martin

very very boring new products, zzzzzzzzzzzzz

Oct 14, 08 - 08:07 pm Comment from: steve516

Well, I am happy that one of my predictions came true grin Now, it remains to be seen, but I would anticipate a 15" Macbook or Macbook Air...

Or, the Macbook Pro 15" will come down in price perhaps....

Oct 14, 08 - 08:11 pm Comment from: macaholic

As i said on a different news item on this forum:
so called analysts are getting a bit tiring to listen to. They pontificate on what Apple may or may not with prices and products, and it always seems to be in excess of what will actually happen, so after the announcement the stock tanks because of unmet "phony" expectations, and the parasites make their money on the sell orders, and then buy for their buddies. Shakespeare was wrong, the lawyers should come AFTER the stock brokers and analysts. They are the true parasites."

Oct 14, 08 - 08:23 pm Comment from: Zune Tang®

MACs are too expensive. I can build a PC any way I want for less than half the price of a MAC. And it plays games. And Windows.

I'm a PC.

Your potential. Our passion.™

Oct 14, 08 - 08:26 pm Comment from: Liopa

"The fact that the MacBook now lacks firewire cuts off millions of potential buyers who own firewire-based video cameras."

IOW, OLD. Stop being a cheapass and buy a new camera. Sheesh.

Oct 14, 08 - 08:58 pm Comment from: Rampant Speculation

"Investors don't follow product pricing."

You could just see the movement in the stock to each announcement Steve was making. Some speculators were following exactly what Apple was doing and assessing it's long term prospects based on that.

"How much can you build with $800?"

A 15" notebook with a 2GHz+ processor, 320MB disk and 4GB memory if you're anyone else but Apple. That seems to be the problem. Apple's 15" and 17" notebooks start in price about where everyone else's high end notebooks end.

Oct 14, 08 - 08:59 pm Comment from: Old Guy With A Beard

We have ten cameras, four of them the latest HiDef Canons only a few weeks old.

Once again, millions of people own the latest HiDef cameras and other fairly new cameras that the Macbook cannot transfer video from.

Bad decision on Apple's part IMHO.

Oct 14, 08 - 09:13 pm Comment from: Mike

Yep, Apple stock drops because a potential rumor, started by someone outside of Apple, is false, that makes a hell of alot of sense. Like I said before, did you hear the rumor Steve Jobs is going on the next Russian Space Mission? What... that means he could be killed, tank the stock. Oh it was it different person with the last name Jobs, so what tank the stock. Oh the last name wasn't even Jobs, too bad, the rumor that was never even close to the truth was false, tank the stock. What a bunch of dumb-shit investors!!!!!

Oct 15, 08 - 02:11 am Comment from: RIP Firewire

"Once again, millions of people own the latest HiDef cameras and other fairly new cameras that the Macbook cannot transfer video from."

The writing has been on the wall for Firewire for years. Why would anyone have brought a firewire only camera in the last few years? Most of the new ones have USB2.

Oct 15, 08 - 02:36 am Comment from: Mister Snitch

"Apple stock for a loop"
does that make it a fruit loop?....

Yes it does. Now make something up about Apple Jacks.

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