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Hmmmm. Maybe another revision...more memory maybe?

Nov 03, 08 - 12:08 pm Comment from: NCIceman

You never know...could be a new model (awful sudden though), or just a sign of the times. I don't think demand is going anywhere though, unless you think everyone who wanted an iPhone has already got one. But I don't think that's true, as there are buyers like myself who are waiting for a better deal before upgrading from Edge to 3G.

Obanalyst skews AAPL numbers yet again.

The economy can't return until the Bamacrats get full power.

Analysts are just like journalists...full of half truths targeting their best interests.

why do people respond as if this unknown analyst is correct?

Nov 03, 08 - 12:21 pm Comment from: HolyMackerel

Could be preparing for an iPhone Nano.

Also, it pays to never go cheap on things you use everyday. Save money on the things you use only periodically.

iPhones don't seem to depreciate as much as other phones. I wish someone would do a study on the resale value of cheap phones and smart phones to see how the iPhone fares…

looks like trouble. but who knows. Apple is going to hurt as much as the rest of us since we support them. I just bought a new keyboard...does that help?

Is it so awfully sudden for a product refresh at this time, though? The best way to stir up the ditherers and the undecideds at this peak sales season is to offer an enhanced model. Even more for the same money or even for less. It doesn't have to be a new model, just a few juicy enhancements and more memory for the same buck. That would do Christmas sales a lot of good. A whole lot of good.
From a logistics POV I don't see it as a problem as there needn't be any major re-tooling changes like a new form factor. On the other hand, they could just be introducing a new model that was already in the works.
Let's hope so. the analysts are so Anti-Apple that a good quarter would work wonders.

I was in an Apple store the other day and noticed they had 'iPhone gift cards'. Since they have in-store activation, I thought maybe it's possible that they expect to sell more of the gift cards and not the iPhone itself going into the Holidays. If that's the case, surely they would lower production now, and fire it back up closer to the end of the year in anticipation of all those gift card holders coming in to get their iPhones around the turn of the year. Don't know if that makes sense, just a thought I had.

Time For the 32 GIG iPhone. I can't Wait. They will drop the 8 gig and discontinue it, and bring the 16 gig to 199, and 32 to 299. I garauntee it. Well, i personally think they won't do this until after christmas, but i hope they do it now, cause i have been waiting to upgrade my iPhone to 3G. Especially since Santa Cruz just got 3G. 32Gig here i come.!

Nov 03, 08 - 12:48 pm Comment from: Snow Leopard

Pump, and dump. (the stock that is...)

Nov 03, 08 - 12:51 pm Comment from: Crazylegs

I spoke with my trader at FBR and he told me the analyst saw 10-15% cuts last week, but 40% cuts this week. Who knows? The problem may be that the almost 7 mln iphone number last quarter may have included up to 2 mln units shipped into inventory at carriers (which is when apple recognizes revenue) which is now getting worked off but required a production cut from Apple.

32G iPhone 3G(eneration), well, at least 32G

Maybe a new model is in the works at a new (read: lower) price that will blow away all other smart phone makers into oblivion.

The "analyst" who does not know when a companies fiscal year ends should. Of be trusted. Apple is already in 1Q. 4Q figures were announced on Oct. 21, 2008.

should not be trusted.

@crazylegs, inventory does not get "worked off" unless it's above the usual amount. Apple has about 5 weeks worth of inventory, which is in the normal range of 4 to 6 weeks worth. The inventory level usually remains stable, unless you are Microsoft, and have to meet shipping goals, and just stuff the channel.

In fact, the current inventory number will only grow, as Apple adds 23 more countries this quarter, and probably 10,000 more Points-of-sale. I'm guessing they'll add 500k to 1M more iPhones in inventory just to get those new locations up to speed.

If you practice what you preach, you must pay a lot for toilet paper.

Nov 03, 08 - 01:42 pm Comment from: thethirdshoe

@MikeH
You read it too fast.
First sentence: Apple has cut its calendar Q4 iPhone production...
So it appears he is talking about calendar year, not fiscal year.

another attempt at dragging down stock price before post holiday numbers come in.

If it works, time to buy some more!

They said the same thing about Q3 production. They are short AAPL. Idiots. The MSFT cartel are running scared. New crackberry rumors any day now too.

Nov 03, 08 - 03:42 pm Comment from: Roger Knights

Surely a slowdown--and perhaps a bit of overshoot--from the hectic previous quarter's production was only to be expected. If Apple only sells 4 or 5 million iPhones this quarter, it will still beat the consensus on earnings.

OTOH, perhaps this slowdown would have a worse result, and was anticipated by Apple's financial guys when they gave their low-ball guidance.

Nov 03, 08 - 04:41 pm Comment from: Roger Knights

Another possibility is that AT&T;has lowered its refresh/order rate, anticipating increased sales from the new Blackberries. Perhaps it intends to push the Blackberries.

I'm betting the cutback is because they are gonna add phones with more memory.

I wonder from what level the 40 percent cut is being computed. The analysts were estimating that Apple was ordering 10 million iPhones per quarter earlier. Sixty percent of 10 million is 6 million, which would be still quite reasonable and consistent with a "40 percent cut."

I am more inclined to believe that this analysis is suggesting a 40 percent cut from 6.9 million, which was the reported sales for calendar Q3. Unfortunately, this analysis seems to ignore that there were two exceptional aspects of calendar Q3 iPhone sales. First Apple had to fill the channel with product, which Apple freely admitted accounted for approximately 2 million of the iPhones. Second, it is not unlikely that there was some pent up demand from those who were unable to buy an iPhone the previous quarter. If one assumes that iPhone demand were perfectly flat, there was an unsatisfied demand for iPhones from calendar Q2 of approximately 1 million iPhones ( 1.703 million sold in Q1 verses 0.717 million sold in Q2). If you subtract both of these from the reported sales, it leaves approximately 4 million iPhones sold. If Apple ordered 4 million iPhones for the current quarter, it would be a 42 percent reduction from last quarters reported sales.

So there appear to be at least two ways that one could justify saying that "Apple cut its orders by 40 percent" without having it represent a meltdown of iPhone sales. Clearly one can take the numbers and draw any conclusion that you wish provided you are willing to make some assumptions.

BTW, if Apple is selling 4 million iPhones per quarter to users, 2 million iPhones in the channel only represents 6 weeks inventory, which is consistent with the goal that Apple generally reports. If sales accelerate going into the holiday season, this level of inventory may well result in shortages.

Hope the G1 by Google is not making in-roads to the Apple iPhone. I really think that with the G-Phone selling like hotcakes in China, this could be the draw-down that we are seeing for Q4.

The only good news for Apple-ites, is that when Apple is faced with competition, they stay one step ahead. Hope that will be the case this time.