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Sun, Mar 21, 2010 - 04:40 AM EDT  —  AAPL: 222.2499 (-2.4001, -1.07%)  |  NASDAQ: 2374.41 (-16.87, -0.71%)

Analyst dubiously claims no new Apple iMacs or Mac minis anytime soon
Thursday, February 19, 2009 - 08:51 AM EDT

"Apple isn't going to roll out a revamped Mac desktop anytime soon, because you wouldn't buy one anyway, analysts say," Brian X. Chen reports for Wired.

MacDailyNews Take: Hey, Brian, unlike you, we read your article. You have one "analyst" espousing that dubious claim. Singular. And he's wrong.

Chen continues, "Tough economic times, a shrinking desktop market and strong notebook sales make the idea of a sexy, aluminum Mac Mini [sic] an unwise investment for Apple, said Trip Chowdhry, a Global Equities Research analyst. 'In this environment where nobody is buying anything and you come out with a kick-ass product, you might get a lot of wows and woos, but that does not convert into sales,' Chowdhry said. 'So that's a wasted effort.'"

MacDailyNews Take: Apple will sell well over 2 million Macs this quarter. Obviously, somebody's buying something. The only "wasted effort" here is Trip's, who we suspect was living up to his name when he formulated his "analysis."

By the way, Trippy Dippy is the same "analyst" who said that "Apple is selling Cadillacs to people who can no longer afford them," back in October 2008. However, Apple then went on to sell 2,524,000 Macintosh computers during the quarter, representing nine percent unit growth over the year-ago quarter. Apple sold a record 22,727,000 iPods during the quarter, representing three percent unit growth over the year-ago quarter. Quarterly iPhone units sold were 4,363,000, representing 88 percent unit growth over the year-ago quarter. 'Even in these economically challenging times, we are incredibly pleased to report our best quarterly revenue and earnings in Apple history—surpassing $10 billion in quarterly revenue for the first time ever,' said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO, in the earning release. More info: Apple demolishes Street with best quarterly revenue and earnings in company history in fiscal Q109 - January 21, 2009.

Nice "analysis" there, genius. Surely your clients, if you have any, are quite pleased. We took issue with Trip's "analysis" then, too. Our analysis at the time, of course, proved to be correct.

And, Brian, it's "Mac mini," not "Mac Mini." We'd expect Wired to get it right by now, as it's been on the market for over 4 years.

Chen continues, "Apple's Mac desktop line is conspicuously overdue for a refresh. Typically, these computers receive at least an incremental upgrade (i.e., minor improvements to processor, memory, storage) every seven months. However, both the Mac Mini and Mac Pro haven't received an update in well over a year, and the current iMac is 10 months old."

"Richard Shim, an analyst at research firm IDC, said U.S. desktop sales shrank about 8 percent last year, dropping from 34.2 million desktop shipments in 2007 to 31.4 million units in 2008. And worldwide, PC shipments shrank about 6 percent, from 153.6 million units shipped in 2007 to 144.9 million in 2008, Shim said," Chen reports. "On top of that, Apple's MacBook sales are skyrocketing, growing 71 percent in the first quarter of 2009 compared to a year ago. Meanwhile, the company's desktop sales declined 25 percent year-over-year, according to Peter Oppenheimer, Apple's chief financial officer."

Chen reports, "Chowdhry estimates that 2010 would be a more reasonable year for Apple to release any form-factor upgrades for its desktop line, including the Mac Mini."

Full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Desktop sales are shrinking because you can't cart around a desktop like a MacBook. It's been a trend for a long time as notebooks got more and more powerful and less expensive. And, if "Apple's MacBook sales are skyrocketing, growing 71 percent in the first quarter of 2009 compared to a year ago," then it stands to reason that Trip Chowderhead's big "analysis" that "nobody is buying anything," is pure ass.

We don't know what motivating Chowdhry's "analysis," but it certainly isn't to demonstrate logic.

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Feb 19, 09 - 09:55 am Comment from: LTD

LOL . . . good for a laugh, at least.

Feb 19, 09 - 09:57 am Comment from: loloontheair

One more Anal {yst}...

Feb 19, 09 - 10:01 am Comment from: Chowda

I had doctors install vocal cords in my rectum, just so that I can be qualified to be an analyst.

Feb 19, 09 - 10:09 am Comment from: LiM

Analyst are paid to say something... anything. Unless they're paid to say something else. Then they'll say anything they're asked to say.

My iMac's fine but my Pro needs an update and so does my screen. So where's the new product? I'm here, sittin' and thinkin': Come, take my money! But the products are a no-show.

MW: miss

Feb 19, 09 - 10:18 am Comment from: Wal

Suck are these analysts but they don't represent the view of the US people, I hope.

But if most US people do think their way, then, gone will be the United States.

Feb 19, 09 - 10:19 am Comment from: MacTony

Yawwwwwn These guys are starting to bore me. Someone needs to really go crazy and predict the demise of Apple. Come on........ if the best of these guys are morons, then there's got to be someone willing to go out on a limb.

Feb 19, 09 - 10:27 am Comment from: Famous Grouse

It's dump week.

Feb 19, 09 - 10:28 am Comment from: kirkgray

I'm sticking with the Obscurity Theory.

Mac OS X is so obscure nobody will write a virus for it.

And Apple itself is such an obscure company that the recession can't find it. That's the only reason Mac, iPod, and iPhone sales are up. Once their market share grows enough to get noticed, the recession will see the company and be all over it like it's been on Dell. Then it's doom Doom DOOM for Apple.

Feb 19, 09 - 10:35 am Comment from: Phil "I'm waiting"

"Apple isn't going to roll out a revamped Mac desktop anytime soon, because you wouldn't buy one anyway, analysts say,"

I'm one who's waiting for new product line (iMac).
I do not want to pay 1299$ for dual core with 1Gb ram :(
Waiting for Quad Core and 6Gb at reasonnable price.
Sorry, but iMac is out date, please make an update!!

Feb 19, 09 - 10:37 am Comment from: -hh

I'm not going to downplay the ill health of the current economy, but the whole notion of this article is, in a nutshell: "Businesses cut back in tough times". Gosh, you really have to be a Rocket Scientist to have figured out this one!

As was pointed out by MDN, there's a far stronger trend thats influencing desktop sales, which is the rising trend in laptops. The entire PC industry is just past the 50% adoption point, and IIRC, Apple is at 70%.

As such, all desktops are in a clear decline (and Apple's more so) and as such, it makes business sense to de-emphasise them, even though we all know that there's still a healthy segment who wants that product form factor, plus it will take longer to depopulate the supply channel because of this reduced demand...kind of like how there were a lot of Hummers on car lots when gasoline prices shot up last summer.

As such, Trip can't see the forest for the trees...missing the bigger trends.

Of course, let's also not forget Trip's November 2008 predictions:

"Apple, he says, is going to start selling iPhones via Costco at $149 starting in January."

oopsie.

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2008/11/10/trippin-with-trip-one-mans-view-of-carnage-to-come/

Feb 19, 09 - 10:46 am Comment from: DLMeyer

He really DOES have a point. Why should Apple put good engineering money into a product that is losing market share? The "Desktop", not the Mac mini or iMac. Well, maybe them, too, but not within the constraints of their niche, the "desktop market".
And, were we talking Dell, it's a GOOD point. But, Dell takes all of a month to "engineer" a new model - they design a case they hope will be sufficiently attractive and fill it full of parts speced to a price point. It takes Apple a bit longer. They have been working on the upcoming models since the current lines debuted. Sure, they may have cut the daily budget when the market tightened, and made other adjustments, but they had already spent a wad of cash. The question they need to ask is not "why would Apple spend money to make a change in a shrinking market", but "would would Apple try to recoup moneys spent on new designs". The answer to the second, of course, is "good business". The answer to the question they asked is "bad business" ... but that was the wrong question.

Feb 19, 09 - 10:57 am Comment from: Wade Smith

I have a Powermac G4 gigabit ethernet as my daily computer. Upgraded RAM and the processor, and it's still going strong. The Mac Pro is too much, both in actual computing power and cost, for me. The iMac is very attractive, but I am waiting for an LED upgrade to the display, and I truly hope they keep the firewire, because lots of my peripherals are firewire. So, I'm waiting, cash in hand, and have been, for quite a while.

Feb 19, 09 - 11:03 am Comment from: MacenScott

Am I the only one that prefers a desktop over a laptop?

You get so much more for your money, starting with the most important factor, screen size. There's no way I'm running Creative Suite on a 15 or 17-inch screen after using a 24-inch iMac.

I don't get what the fascination is.

Feb 19, 09 - 11:10 am Comment from: Graham Bowyer

I have an early mini. Just waiting for an updated model. My son is waiting for an upgraded iMac - he's a potential switcher.

Feb 19, 09 - 11:10 am Comment from: KenC

My bro-in-law bought an iMac two days ago. I told him to get it at the Apple Store, just in case something came out in the next two weeks.

Feb 19, 09 - 11:25 am Comment from: AppleJack

I'm afraid I can't disagree totally with the gist of the idea that real upgrades in the basic Mac line won't be happening soon. And I think that sales will probably be relatively flat (but not declining)until the next big wave of improvements arrive.
The problem is directly related to Intel's Tick Tock. Apple definitely needs some measure of upgrade, right now, but I think they may wait until the full I7 line comes into production. What I understood of last week's Intel announcements was that they were investing in new fabs for the 32nm production, not the 45nm. They may not actual produce a full I7 line for the 45nm scale.That sounds like any new iMac, Mini, or MacBook upgrades may moved back until then. There is a server grade Penryn in production, I think, and that may be a small reprieve for the Pro, and maybe some smaller, secret headless Mac. Weighing heavy on all these decisions is the schedule for the introduction of Snow Leopard. I believe that when I7 and Snow leopard come on the market, Macs sales will be phenomenal, especially if the void between the Mini and the Pro is filled. I know I intend to purchase both a Mini and an MBP when that happens. I would probably upgrade the Mini purchase to a mid-sized headless Mac, if one is introduced. (My seven year-old 23 inch Cinema display shows no sign of deterioration, and has no dead pixels. However, my MDD Duallie is showing its age, even though it's been upgraded and is working properly.)
And I believe we can trust Apple to know how and when to introduce these products; . . . it's just that I'm having a terrible time waiting for them.

Feb 19, 09 - 11:30 am Comment from: bizlaw

The red-hot laptop sales is why Apple came out with their new display and all the bells & whistles on it. Desktops have their place and will always be more powerful than laptops, but laptops can do so much these days that it's difficult not to want one.

A MacBook Air can do pretty much everything my iMac G5 can do, and I can take it with me anywhere.

Feb 19, 09 - 11:45 am Comment from: Lurker_PC

My guess is that Apple is going to release updates to their hardware lines somewhere near the release of Snow Leopard. My wife and I are waiting for an update to the Mac Mini. At the very least, we'll wait for Snow Leopard to be released before getting a new machine.

Peace.

Feb 19, 09 - 11:49 am Comment from: Bobby

Trip is a doom and gloom Obamatard. Completely clueless just like the president.

Feb 19, 09 - 11:53 am Comment from: AppleJack

Bobby, . . . go home! Your mother's calling you!

Feb 19, 09 - 12:03 pm Comment from: john

It's stupidity like this that sends Apple's stock down for no reason.
Apple isn't going to sit on its laurels and not bring out new products.
Apple is in the best position to keep innovating while the others just try to survive! 25 Billion dollars in the bank collecting interest and no debt. There's no reason for Apple to hold back anything if it is ready to go to market. I'm pretty sure they won't like MDN says.
Just another Anal-ist with his head you know where. He should write stories about HP's 25% drop in sales. They should be worried, not Apple.

Feb 19, 09 - 12:05 pm Comment from: nytesky

I think Apple will move towards the direction of one year upgrades since they have such a large mix of products now. It makes sense to spur sales by spreading product updates throughout the year. Here's my best guess:

Jan Nothing
Feb-Mar iMac
Apr-May Mac mini
Jun-Jul iPhone
Aug AppleTV (assuming DVR capabilities)
Sep iPods
Oct MacBooks
Nov-Dec Holiday shopping season

Feb 19, 09 - 12:14 pm Comment from: HMCIV

@ loloontheair

Anal Yeast? I think they make a cream for that.

Feb 19, 09 - 12:18 pm Comment from: macaholic

I was going to trade my 20" iMac for a Mac Pro with 23" monitor. The 23 is gone now, and Mac Pro is way too much for what i need, power wise. So I am sitting on my hands waiting for 24" iMac with quad core. But since iMac is a glorified MacBook pro, not sure if that will happen. If it does not appear in next round of upgrades, at least for the 24 incher with the 'good' screen, it ain't ever going to happen. Well at least for a fair while.

Feb 19, 09 - 12:21 pm Comment from: breeze

Didn't Steve Jobs predict that portable laptops are the future cornerstone of the new computer industry just like he predicted and nixed the floppy drive?

Feb 19, 09 - 12:51 pm Comment from: Buster

Love the name...'Trip'. I can see his mom beaming down at him and turning to her husband saying 'Lets name him, ummm, Trip!'

That goes along with those other famous Hollywood names like, Bolt Upright and Rip Torn.

Feb 19, 09 - 01:09 pm Comment from: Lurker_PC

@ John - Apple's stock is down because of HP's disappointing numbers and outlook.

Peace.

Feb 19, 09 - 01:21 pm Comment from: Thomas from Germany

If you are an Analyst, it seems to be very easy for you to create a buying opportunity yourself. At least with Apple.

Feb 19, 09 - 01:22 pm Comment from: MacRaven

Myself and 3 others are waiting for new iMacs, one might go with a mini depending on the upgrade.

Feb 19, 09 - 01:30 pm Comment from: auramac

Chen's a pen name: his real name is Harvey Lipschitz. He lives up to it.

Feb 19, 09 - 03:52 pm Comment from: afib

wow this guy is an artard

Feb 19, 09 - 04:57 pm Comment from: G4Dualie

Like you AppleJack, I held on just long enough.

My MDD carried me through to Tiger and while I could have gone faster, I couldn't do better.

When Leopard showed, I bought the top-of-the-line intel iMac and suddenly I was wicked-fast and better.

Anyone, who's bought a next-gen Mac knows what I mean. Suddenly, the value of the software you've been using for the last couple of years has become renewed. More fps, faster run-times, and more importantly the workflow you adopted twenty-five years ago hasn't really changed at all and translates to the new Mac very nicely, thank you very much!

Bring out the short stack tower! Don't worry about cannibalizing Mac Pro sales, the short stack is the new Mac Pro!

Let's get small.

Feb 19, 09 - 05:50 pm Comment from: gedboy

I just ordered a 24" iMac. If a newer one comes out next week then good for Apple. Unlike other companies an Apple product is always useful.

Feb 19, 09 - 05:59 pm Comment from: Road Warrior

Well this makes me think of Gretzky the hockey player. Skate to where the puck is. Right not the puck is deep into perhaps the thralls of a recession or depression. Take a longer time to research and develop, add input into that sector and bring out an innovative product to blow people away. That has nearly been Apple, save that they had a time constraint put on them....new products at MacExpo. With that gone and the move to release products when they are ready is going to be great. I would rather wait a few months for a product that is ready than the rush out half baked ones that the industry seems to be caught up on.

You hear is from the users, even here..."I still run on ...{insert model here} and it works fine." Sure is a lot better than "I updated, installed a new component and next weekend I might actually do some work."

Feb 20, 09 - 12:33 am Comment from: SKY LARK

@Buster
-
If Yoko Ono married Sonny Bono, she'd be Yoko Ono Bono.

If Dolly Parton married Salvador Dali, she'd be Dolly Dali.

If Bo Derek married Don Ho, she'd be Bo Ho.

If Ella Fitzgerald married Darth Vader, she'd be Ella Vader.

If Oprah Winfrey married Depak Chopra, she'd be Oprah Chopra.

If Olivia Newton-John married Wayne Newton, then divorced him to marry Elton John, she'd be Olivia Newton-John Newton John.

If Sondra Locke married Elliott Ness, then divorced him to marry Herman Munster, she'd become Sondra Locke Ness Munster.

If Bea Arthur married Sting, she'd be Bea Sting.

If Tuesday Weld married Hal March III, she'd be Tuesday March 3.

If Liv Ullman married Judge Lance Ito, then divorced him and married Jerry Mathers, she'd be Liv Ito Beaver.

If Snoop Doggy Dogg married Winnie the Pooh, he'd be Snoop Doggy Dogg Pooh.

How about a baseball marriage? If Boog Powell married Felipe Alou, he'd Be Boog Alou.

If Ivana Trump married, in succession, Orson Bean (actor), King Oscar (of Norway), Louis B. Mayer (of MGM), and Norbert Wiener (mathematician), she would then be Ivana Bean Oscar Mayer Wiener.

Feb 20, 09 - 12:42 am Comment from: SKY LARK

Not to mention that -

If Whoopie Goldberg married Peter Cushing, she'd be Whoopie Cushing

If Annie Oakley married Don Juan, divorced him and married Ian Holm, she'd be Annie Juan Holm.

If Faith Hill married Dr. No, divorced him and married Dudley Moore, she'd be Faith No Moore

If Kaye Umansky married Wally Schirra, divorced him and married Georges Seurat, she'd be Kaye Schirra Seurat.

Feb 20, 09 - 03:47 am Comment from: justme2

I'm one of those who's going to "buy something" this year -- I want to upgrade my Mark I Intel iMac (2 Ghz Core Duo) up to a Core 2 Duo before June, mainly for the Sims 3 release but also because I'm planning on doing a lot of photography this spring. I'm holding off till April or May though (should have my tax refunds by then now that California's got a budget) in case there's an upgrade. And March/April would make sense for an announcement, for all the schools that need to start their budget planning if they're going to upgrade their computer labs next year. Let's see what happens then.

Feb 20, 09 - 03:52 am Comment from: justme2

MacenScott -- We have both desktop (iMac) and laptop (MacBook) in our household; the MacBook is my workhorse computer for my writing and when I travel, while the iMac is where I do my gaming (mostly Sims) and most of my photo editing, as well as where I keep most of the household info. It's also where my husband does most of his computer stuff (email and Web surfing) especially when I and the MacBook are away from home.

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