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Fri, Nov 20, 2009 - 10:36 PM EST  —  AAPL: 199.92 (-0.59, -0.29%)  |  NASDAQ: 2146.04 (-10.78, -0.5%)

Analyst: Sprint’s Palm Pre sales are slowing
Thursday, July 02, 2009 - 03:03 PM EST

Apple Online Store "Pali Capital Research analyst Walter Piecyk this morning reports that his store checks show the company’s rate of Pre sales at Sprint stores slowed last week from 50,000 to 60,000 the week prior to just 40,000," Tiernan Ray reports for Barron's.

"Piecyk offers the view that this is not because of a slowdown in supply, but rather that demand is adequately matching supply," Ray reports.

Full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: 40,000 per week x 52 weeks = 2.08 million units per year. In other, more harrowing, words for Palm: At current rates, and very generously assuming no further falloff in demand, Palm will sell fewer Pre units in its entire first year than the number of iPhone 3GS units that Apple has already sold in under 2 weeks.*

No wonder Apple has all the mobile app developers.

*And, we're not even counting iPhone 3G units.

You know the beautiful thing: June 29, 2009, is the two-year anniversary of the first shipment of the iPhone. Not one of those people will still be using an iPhone a month later. - Palm-backer Roger McNamee, Elevation Partners - March 05, 2009

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Jul 02, 09 - 02:11 pm Comment from: Jersey_Trader

Also not counting the iPod touch units either.

Jul 02, 09 - 02:12 pm Comment from: Bread

How can Pre sales go any slower?

Jul 02, 09 - 02:13 pm Comment from: judy

I'm amazed they sold any at all with the huge publicity the iPhone gets.

Like I said earlier, I think it's the 1200 price difference between the two phone carriers 2 year plans that is really is the reason for Palm selling anything at all.

So Sprint is taking the hit and Palm is along for the ride.

With Apple it's AT+T along for the ride.

Amazing...now imagine if we had a choice of competing carriers...like RIM does.

Jul 02, 09 - 02:15 pm Comment from: LE Studios

How can Pre sales go any slower?


Easy just got get a iPhone.

Jul 02, 09 - 02:19 pm Comment from: Mac Daddy

The iPhone has killed again.

Jul 02, 09 - 02:22 pm Comment from: spyinthesky

What was it again Palm said, within two weeks of the Pre launch no one will be buying an iPhone again, how very Balmeresque which reminds me of when the iPhone was first launched how that particular man of the night claimed how it only had a handful of applications while Windows mobile had near 20,000. That particular boast was equally shown to be delusional within a month or two.

Jul 02, 09 - 02:35 pm Comment from: Roger

How many analysts are there in the world. Who ever heard of this clown and the many others that abound every day. Geez I think I will get some cards made up so I can be an analyst. Maybe Palm can get the puke ad that M$ has just discontinued. That could help.

Jul 02, 09 - 02:35 pm Comment from: qka

Maybe it was because of the reported production bottle-necks getting worse. Probably their parts suppliers have cut them off because financially strapped Palm hasn't paid their bills.

Jul 02, 09 - 02:37 pm Comment from: ken1w

Exactly why they had to announce that "almost 400,000" Pre's have been sold a few days ago. They could not wait until they actually sold "more than 400,000" (half a million would have been a better milestone). If they did wait that long, it would be too late to generate any more interest; it may not even make it to half a million (unless you count the defect-related exchanges).

Jul 02, 09 - 02:40 pm Comment from: Ben Dover

Er... folks... what were Apple's original iPhone unit sales in the first month?

Jul 02, 09 - 02:43 pm Comment from: Mr Numbers

+/- 2 million. PATHETIC!

Jul 02, 09 - 02:45 pm Comment from: dave

Well, Palm will be able to offer a whole bunch of cheaper Pre's soon. Evidently, there should be a significant number of refurbished unit's available, as people are trading in their Pre's one, two, or more times to get a reliable unit.

Jul 02, 09 - 02:46 pm Comment from: Flip

MacDailyNews generally stinks, but this post of yours today is the crappiest I've seen yet, as is the cheering from the morons on the site. Contracts generally terminate at the end of the month, and subs buy their replacement handsets in the early part of the next month. So sales slowed in the last week of June and are likely to rebound over the next two weeks as replacement units are purchased by Sprint subs. Sorry, guys, but I don't think Palm dies just because you clowns don't like competition and don't understand the timing of sub add ebb and flow.

Jul 02, 09 - 02:47 pm Comment from: ilaugh

Ben Dover:
1. Was the Pre Palm's first phone? wink
2. The number of original iPhones sold was still a lot higher...

Jul 02, 09 - 02:53 pm Comment from: January 24, 1984

They're still shipping quite a few units, just not selling them.

Returns will do that.

Jul 02, 09 - 02:55 pm Comment from: Bizlaw

@ Flip

Uh, generally people upgrade BEFORE their contract expires, as carriers will allow you to upgrade in the last month or so of your contract without paying any prepayment penalty (sometimes even after 18 mo if you sign a new 2 year agreement). That's because they want to make sure they keep you as a client.

Palm has had some positive Pre reviews, but since the Pre's release it's been far more negative reviews concerned with hardware problems which have overshadowed the positive reviews over the webOS.

Palm simply has too much of a mountain to climb. They would have been much better off releasing the Pre a month or so before the iPhone 3GS, or even a month after, but the week before was just too close together.

Jul 02, 09 - 02:58 pm Comment from: Jubei

Another Anal-lyst still over estimating Palm Peepee sales. Even if it's news about it slowing down, those numbers are too generous. Where are the real sales numbers Palm? It was said that all first gen iPhone users will switch to the Pee. So let's see that weekend and up to date sales numbers. Were tired of listening to Anal-lyst and your paid blooopers on the net.

Jul 02, 09 - 03:00 pm Comment from: flip

Have you any real data on returns or just blowing that out of your ass like everything else you guys write? I doubt you do, as I've had a Pre since the day they have been available and have had no issues with it. No one else I know with one has had any problems either. Stick to facts.

Jul 02, 09 - 03:11 pm Comment from: Jubei

@flip

"No one else I know with one has had any problems either. Stick to facts."

I think you made a mistake there. It should be

"No one else I know has one of these...."

Jul 02, 09 - 03:35 pm Comment from: _Bill_

The Pre sells b/c people on Sprint can get a new phone w/o breaking their contract (they do pay more). Will the iPhone ever have real competition? IMHO, the Pre is the closest thing to a real competitor for the iPhone, close in the same way the Earth is closer to the Sun than Jupiter is.

Jul 02, 09 - 03:44 pm Comment from: Demon

They are also not counting the returns and the replacement units are being counted two, three and four times.

A very good source at Sprint tells me that Palm Pre sales are only about 25% of most of the lowest reported guesses. Even opening weekend sales were only about 50% of the lowest reported numbers. The Sprint stores have been told to up the quantities of Pre's sold if anyone asks and they've been told to not comment on Pre returns or replacements.

Jul 02, 09 - 03:44 pm Comment from: KingMel

@Judy
"Like I said earlier, I think it's the 1200 price difference between the two phone carriers 2 year plans that is really is the reason for Palm selling anything at all."

$1200 over 24 months is $50 per month on average. Are you seriously saying that you can get the same voice/data service from Sprint for $50 less per month? That would be less than I am paying just for cell phone service...that does not seem reasonable.

Jul 02, 09 - 03:49 pm Comment from: jarrettdailynews

@ flip,

I am unsure if there has ever been a person more pissed about theiray choice in phones than you yourself. It's okay that you made a bad purchase, it happens. The hard part is to say " I made a mistake and I need to just accept the fact that I should have bought an iPhone." You can also admit that your newly purchased "oreo cookie" is quite possibly the worst implementaion of hardware ever. I know, you are awaiting that hardware update over the internet to fix your stationary keypad. Once installed that update will allow the fixed keyboard to slide out of the side of the phone instead.
Being the "New Palm" though, the keys will probably end up stuck sideways.
You are right though, the iPhone isn't for everyone. The iPhone is only ment for people who want the "just works, and stays together" product. It is also for people who don't want limits to what they can accomplish. It is also for those who appreciate a company that will constantly update their software.

Oh yeah, almost forgot, some people like third party applications also. Good luck with that last one.

Jul 02, 09 - 03:55 pm Comment from: glorfindel

I am becoming a little more than worried about the iPhone. With this behavior, do you think it is becoming a serial killer?

Jul 02, 09 - 03:56 pm Comment from: glorfindel

ohh

Jul 02, 09 - 04:04 pm Comment from: surfcity

@Judy

You should qualify your figures rather than making it sound like a statement of fact. Since so many of my friends have a;ready and are planning to upgrade into an iPhone (because I have the kind of friends that can afford an iPhone) I've been able to cut back my voice minutes (due to more free in-network calls), so my AT&T;iPhone plan will only be $240 a year more than my previous plan over 2 years.

Let me repeat that for you...
My new iPhone plan will now cost me $240 MORE in 2 years, NOT $1,200. And for the $240, I get an iPod touch, unlimited Internet, a GPS device, a Flip Video replacement and a handheld gaming device. Hmmm I'm sure I left out a few other things, but you get the point.

Jul 02, 09 - 04:11 pm Comment from: jarrettdailynews

@ glorfindel,

I was going to say cereal killer, but I can't. Apple is eating the industry's lunch, and all their other meals and snacks. What a horrid feeling, knowing you are being outclassed and outmatch by an outsider to your industry, errrrr the new leader of your industry.

Reminds me of my younger days when i would tell guys to pack a lunch before they even thought of applying for the ass kicking they were going to receive.

Jul 02, 09 - 04:15 pm Comment from: Predrag

to Judy (again...):

Where on earth did you find those $1,200!!!??? The basic plans for Spring and AT&T;are IDENTICAL ($70 per month). You could theoretically get to the $50 per month if you cranked up AT&T;'s voice and text plans to unlimited, but who in their sane mind would need to do that when there's rollover minutes (not to mention free mobile-to-mobile calls)?

The argument is preposterously weak. AT&T said that the average iPhone plan is around $82 (google it up; I don't have a link right now). That means that for every one person who pays $150 that you so preposterously claim to be the price of the iPhone plan, there are six others who pay the minimum $70. Since the most common (by far) add-on feature on the iPhone plan is texting ($5-20 extra), the number of people who pay the absurd $150 is obviously significantly lower yet.

Sometimes I have a feeling Judy is yanking our collective chain here...

Jul 02, 09 - 04:26 pm Comment from: Predrag

If Palm manages to sell 2 million PREs in one year, that will generate over $1 billion in revenue. In 2008, Palm generated $1.3 billion in total revenue (not enough to make a profit, though). They've been losing money for the last two years straight. If they manage to rake in a billion only through PRE (not counting their treos, centros, tungstens and other crap), they have a solid chance of turning profit for once. In fact, that chance may as well come in the next quarter, when the number of PREs sold in a single quarter will be the biggest. We all know that they ain't going to repeat a quarter like that ever again.

The point is, Palm doesn't need to sell anywhere near the number of iPhones in order to turn profit. That's how lame and small the company is -- a few PREs sold and they're safely in the black.

Jul 02, 09 - 04:29 pm Comment from: Kirk

@Ben Dover

Well, in the first two days of the iPhone's launch in 2007, 146,000 units were sold. Estimates for the Pre are between 50,000 and 100,000.

So, the Pre, operating in a robust market created by the iPhone, couldn't match the original iPhone's sales when the iPhone had the added task of creating the market in the first place.

The iPhone 3GS sold more than a million units in its first two days.

Jul 02, 09 - 04:36 pm Comment from: Predrag

..."Contracts generally terminate at the end of the month, and subs buy their replacement handsets in the early part of the next month.

This makes absolutely no sense at all. Contracts begin and expire on any date in the month (mine expires on 21 May). People upgrade phones whenever they get to it; sometimes weeks or months after expiration, sometimes right after become eligible for the upgrade, but NEVER on any one specific date, like the beginning of month. I'm sure women's cycles would correlate more with the upgrade patterns than the beginning or end of month.

In my case, I had set a reminder in (Google) calendar when my contract becomes eligible for a subsidised update (21 May) and I got a new free phone exactly the next day. I didn't want to give AT&T free money (which is what you are doing of you aren't subsidising a free phone anymore). I signed for two years again and will become eligible for the next subsidised update on 29 January 2011. So, it's around 20 months of waiting (or transferring the contract to someone else).

Jul 02, 09 - 04:41 pm Comment from: jarrettdailynews

@Kirk,

That is not the correct number. That is how many iPhones were activated the first weekend of iPhone Gen 1. The actual number sold was 247,000. That is according to Apple. Att only releases the numbers they activate. Apple releases the number they sell.
Kind of like Sprint will announce the number they activate and Palm will announce how many were sold, but probably not how many were returned and how many of those returns are re-returns.
Good reading over at precentral.net on all the returns and digging through boxes to find a pre that doens't have the oreo cookie effect. Funny stuff.

Sorry to all of you Pre owners, your company will soon be owned by another company. And that company is even worse for your phone futures than your current company.

Jul 02, 09 - 04:46 pm Comment from: T-Man

Contrary to others, I sincerely hope the Pre does well enough to keep the company alive. The iPhone is the gold standard, but I don't want the employees at Pre to have to find new jobs in today's economy and I don't like to see companies disappear. It happens, but it's really sad. Of course, I'll buy the iPhone in a couple of months. I used to be with Sprint and now I'm with AT&T;. Far superior experience, believe me. Hats off to Apple. Now if the rest of the country's corporations could become just as innovative, we would all be better off.

Jul 02, 09 - 04:50 pm Comment from: HotinPlaya

Well I have seen a Pre, but never a Zune

Jul 02, 09 - 05:07 pm Comment from: Demon

Based on the comments on some of the Pre Boards About 90% of Pre sales have been to Owners of pervious Palm Devices and a quick check of the comments on some of the posts you can quick see most (I estimate 60 to 75%) all the Pre owners will be returning them with-in their 30 day return window and going back to their old Palm device.
Unless Sprint plans on selling used Pre Devices as New someone is going to end up blowing out a large number of Refurbished units.

Jul 02, 09 - 05:16 pm Comment from: Wade

"Well I have seen a Pre, but never a Zune"

Just the opposite for me- I'm in a repair shop, and a guy actually brought in a Zune because he'd broken his earphone plug inside it, and wanted to see if I could get it out. I took one look, exclaimed, 'Hey, first sighting! Zune here!' but had to tell the poor bastard I couldn't fix it.

Jul 02, 09 - 06:07 pm Comment from: Davewrite

Yesterday one 'analyst' estimated 400,000 Pres sold.

TODAY JPMorgan 'analyst' says 270,000 in first month,

Notice how super different their estimates are?

More significant is that Palm hasn't said how many they've sold. Apple announced 1 million soon after launch. If sales are hot won't Palm have crowed about it?

Jul 02, 09 - 06:11 pm Comment from: @MDN take

You are ignorant or stupid to extrapolate that number like that. is it possible the Pre will show up on GSM networks soon, starting in Europe? Think before you write.

Jul 02, 09 - 06:37 pm Comment from: @jarretdailynews, et al

isn't enough that Pre is nothing more than iPhone junior with crappy hardware and a barely more than usable keyboard (if it doesn't cut you first)? Kirk is on to something, something huge: peyote. The numbers will not "rebound" next week due to contract "ebbs and flows". This is just made up crap. Let those who want a Pre go for it. It's their choice. MDN commenters, you guys are little bitches. suck it.

Jul 02, 09 - 07:33 pm Comment from: apus

@flip

If you want to base your conclusion on anecdotal evidence, at least use a bigger sample.

@Kirk

146,000 was the number AT&T;provided for activations in that quarter, not sales. That wasn't even the first weekend, since the Sunday was already the next quarter.

Jul 02, 09 - 08:55 pm Comment from: Alex

Roger McNamee was right -- everyone has quit using the iphone and moved on to the iphone 3GS. ; D

Jul 02, 09 - 09:11 pm Comment from: Mister Snitch

What's that sound? It's the Fat Lady. Time to throw some dirt over those arrogant assholes (and their clueless backers).

Jul 02, 09 - 11:44 pm Comment from: Tommy Boy

@Alex: You beat me to the punch, I'm using an iPhone 3GS, my shop manager has my old iPhone 3G, and my niece has my old iPhone. Roger McNamee was 100% correct in stating that on July 29, 2009 we won't be using iPhones, we've already upgraded twice.

Jul 03, 09 - 07:26 am Comment from: cbascue

Sorry liberal glory chasers, I have had both and the Pre' is a better phone (smaller, multitasking, keyboard, FREE GPS...on and on and on) and quite unreal for the first units shipped. My god if I bought a car and sat on the porch pointing at other cars and said that’s no good, that’s no good, that’s no good compared to my car then what would I be? , An arrogant idiot defending a decision. It seems very insecure to me and quite pathetic. A phone is a phone. I would be more concerned about keeping Steve healthy.....

Jul 03, 09 - 07:59 am Comment from: apus

@cbascue

The pre has very limited multitasking: If you are on the phone with somebody and suddenly feel the need to send him an e-mail – and that's a pretty common thing people do – you have to hang up, send the e-mail and then call again. That is so dial-up ages. Actually, it's a joke.

There is a difference between making buzzword bullet point lists and creating a useful device.

Jul 03, 09 - 08:38 am Comment from: cbascue

Why do apple people care if Palm Pre sales are slowing? Ask yourself. I got a new Ferrari and hope Porsche goes out of business. Does that make sense? Only to wack jobs I’m afraid. This site is loaded with them. Remember I have both phones in one household and compare them daily. I like my Itouch but its no phone. I come here for updates regarding Mac's which I own and love, I don’t want Dell to go out of business though..... God it’s pathetic.

Jul 03, 09 - 09:17 am Comment from: kevt

Agree with cbascue, it is pathetic.

And rather inconsistent.

iPhones outsell Pres. Ha! It just goes how superior iPhones are. Only a troll would buy anything else. We rule the universe.

PCs outsell Macs. Ah ... rather different conclusions drawn.

Jul 03, 09 - 09:20 am Comment from: silverhawk

@cbascue
If it is that bothersome to come to MDN then perhaps you should not visit the site.

Jul 03, 09 - 09:29 am Comment from: cbascue

Wow, this guy wears a helmet (kevt).... Just another example of a wacko!

I come here for Mac news not insecure propaganda. The Mac's are superior to window machines hands down but I disagree about the Iphone and other devices. I am just shocked to se the writings of such insecure radicals that say things like ...Ha!. Give me a break and move out of your parent’s basements.

Jul 03, 09 - 12:46 pm Comment from: Predrag

Cbascue:

There is a very valid reason why many here are so vindictive. You may have noticed that there wasn't much negative noise about G1 (Android). Most of that noise centres around Pre and MS. A few days ago, I googled and pulled about three of four quotes, from Palm executives or major venture capitalists, some from three years ago, some from six months ago. They all had one thing in common: they were extremely arrogant and condescending about the iPhone (without googling, one comes to mind in particular -- Ed Colligan: "We've learned and struggled for a few years here figuring out how to make a decent phone," he said. "PC guys are not going to just figure this out. They're not going to just walk in." (in the end, I had to google it...).

There are very many statements like this (Michael Dell's from 10 years ago, about Apple "Sell the company and give it back to the shareholders" is legendary on these forums). These are the reasons many here seem to be anxious to see Palm and Dell in particular fail miserably -- they believe in karma and support it wholeheartedly. Feeling is similar about RIM and it Storm, since RIM people also kept disparaging iPod, claiming their superiority with Storm. You will be very hard pressed to find any kind of disparaging statements about competition from Apple's executives (Microsoft excluded, but that's understandable -- rivalry goes back twenty years). Jobs & the gang is very careful to be reserved about Android, Storm, Pre. For the most part, they ignore them; if they say anything, it is just very cautious ("Google's mobile operating system Android is a bad idea. Having created a phone, it's a lot harder than it looks. Larry Page, Sergey Brin, and Eric Schmidt should be happy with the apps they've created for the iPhone. I actually think Google has achieved their goal without Android, and I now think Android hurts them more than it helps them. It's just going to divide them and people who want to be their partners.").

You see, there is a reason; it isn't pathetic, nor inconsistent; it's actually very consistent, if you take a moment to think a bit about it.

Jul 03, 09 - 06:19 pm Comment from: cbascue

Wow, thats a lot of writing (you need a hobby). I seem to remember a company who cant even write a decent operating system (windows) almost put apple out of business, I would be a little more humble myself if I were you people. Oh and I think I hear banging on the floor geekies, your mom has your PB&J;'s ready upstairs. The new Palm Evo is on the way for 99 bucks running mobile OS and by then the SDK will be alive and kicking. God forbid another Iphone alternative.... and I still have my Ipod touch and thank god its not a phone.

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