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He's a wanker

Shave my head and call me a ninny for asking off subject, but WHEN is Core Animation going to affect Mac software the way everyone was suggesting 8 months ago? Wasn't everything supposed to be flying around in circles on the desktop by now? </shaving head and calling ninny>

iPhone nano = 4 million during the Holiday quarter all by itself.

Feb 22, 08 - 04:01 pm Comment from: ericdano

"couldn't analyze his ass from his elbow even with a full-length mirror."

Funny stuff. But, Zune Tang can't do that, and he still seems to thrive.......

Feb 22, 08 - 04:04 pm Comment from: critic

This guy really doesn't understand the concept of the iPhone as a platform.

The release of the SDK and 3rd party applications will be a major blow to the attractiveness of unlocked phones, as this will probably drive more frequent iPhone software updates that makes dealing with an unlocked phone a major PITA.

3rd part applications will also generate more sales.

If only Apple would fix the Flash issue, then people would have much less to complain about.

before you guys go nuts and start calling this guy and idiot, you should understand that he is a very good analyst and knows his stuff. that being said, I do believe he is completely wrong about this issue.

Feb 22, 08 - 04:13 pm Comment from: Jim - TIV

Not to mention how many iphones are going to be sold when they are legally released in Canada, Australia, Japan, and oh, some little country named China. All of which should happen this year.

Feb 22, 08 - 04:14 pm Comment from: mrmikey

It's not up to Apple to "fix the flash problem" its up to Adobe to create a Flash for OSX that doesn't blow dog in terms of compute cycles and performance (ie: doesn't need an Intel Core 2 processor to work adequately).

Adobe makes Flash, not Apple. It's Adobe's problem to fix.

Is Toni Sacconaghi just abjectly stupid and really bad at his job or does he just hate Apple for some reason? Or is Toni's issue with AAPL something else entirely?

Why does it have to be either/or?

You have to take in account that the Iphone is going on sale in many new countries this year, meaning the Iphone will be available to masses of people, who don't want an unlocked Iphone they want a fully supported Iphone. This plus the inevitability of a new phone make the 10 million figure by the end of this year very possible.

You said, "before you guys go nuts and start calling this guy and idiot, you should understand that he is a very good analyst and knows his stuff. that being said, I do believe he is completely wrong about this issue."

If he is such a good analyst then why does he have his time frame off so much. He said "in 2008" where Steve says by the end of 2008.
One period is 18 months, one is 12 months. 50% difference. Just a thought and it now includes 3-4 countries as well. Just a thought.

en

I thought that Jobs originally announced a goal of selling 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008. That would include all iPhones sold in 2007 and all of 2008.

I've often seen this staement misinterpreted as Apple would sell 10 million iPhones over a period of one year (from July 2007 through June 2008). This, I know is incorrect.

But am I incorrect in my original assumption? Did Jobs say that Apple would sell 10 million phones in 2008 or did he say that Apple would sell 10 million phones by the end of 2008? Adding the 4 million iPhones already sold would make the 10 million figure look like a sure thing.

Someone should put him in jail for stock manipulation

Jobs said 10 million in 2008. I was confused for months, too, but if you check the keynote or anything that they have said since it's always been in 2008.

So, the overall demand is down on the iPhone except…

…for the people who are going through the convoluted process of buying them on the black market, going through the trouble to unlock them (and potentially creating an iBrick) and then using them on networks where the iPhone can't really exploit all of it's features?

Hmm. Maybe Apple should just sell them all under the counter.

Thanks Shogun. I appreciate the clarification.

Feb 22, 08 - 05:07 pm Comment from: Jubei

Sooo, why are there no *ANALyst* talking about the millions and millions of Zunes flying off the shelves? Hmmm anyone? Hello! Hello! How many Zunes were sold this quarter???? Anyone? Just as I thought, not a peep from these *ANALyst*.

Think of it this way. Were it not for morons like Toni Suck-on-eggy, Elmer FUD, and Eric Switchy, you would not have gotten the opportunity to buy AAPL stock at such attractive prices. Today I bought a major chunk at 116. They always seem to knock stocks down to a low at around 3:30 pm on a Friday. With $21 per share in cash, you can get one of the most innovative companies ever with huge growth potential in front of it. I am happy, happy, happy.

Well I've done my part. I bought an iPhone last week. Complete impulse purchase. I love it. My friends and family have become very intrigued by it too. To try out the iPhone is to want (despirately!) an iPhone.

Feb 22, 08 - 05:38 pm Comment from: Ampar

"the incidence of 'unlocking' has been much higher than expected"

So? Apple still makes a metric buttload on the sales. Get 'em hooked on Apple kit.

Feb 22, 08 - 05:47 pm Comment from: Big Al

Is a metric buttload that much bigger than an American/British buttload?

Feb 22, 08 - 06:00 pm Comment from: Ampar

It's 9 cheeky parts larger. Some consider it asinine.

I thought it was two butt munches larger.

Maybe I was thinking about the analist who wrote the above referenced article.

- iPhone nano:
3G
8 GB RAM
3" touch-screen
Camera
iPod+iTunes Store
Safari
YouTube
Widgets
eMail
iChat and SMS Text Msg
2 or 3 games included

$299

- iPhone
Slimmer, iPod touch-like thin-ness
3G
16/32 GB versions
3.5" touch-screen
Camera
iPod+iTunes Store
Safari
YouTube
Widgets
eMail
iChat and SMS Text Msg
2 or 3 games included

$349 or $449

The main difference between the two: ONLY the iPhone will be able to accept 3rd party application onto it, while the iPhone nano is locked down.

This is akin to an iPod touch/iPhone and iPod Classic and iPod nano - same exact business model.

If the end-user will absolutely need Lotus Notes, Exchange abilities and other 3rd party applications (gamers use, etc...) the iPhone is the device.

If the end-user is a consumer who simply wants to combine their phone and iPod into one, with a bunch of other great features, iPhone nano is the perfect device for them.

More countries, lower prices, 13 million iPhones sold in 2008 - regardless of economic conditions forthcoming (which are not as bad as the media and political parties claim - remember it is an election year...)

Feb 22, 08 - 07:11 pm Comment from: Mac-nugget

I don't know, but Apple is almost down to Laura Goldman's $111 low.

Open poll to MDN readers:

I have a relative who is an IT analyst in New York who covers GOOG, MSFT, RIMM, DELL, and other IT stocks.

This relative currently does not have an iPhone

Should I just buy him an iPhone as a birthday gift in order for him to
"see the light"?

It is a $400 bet I am considering. I hold a significant position in AAPL, with my average cost basis about $40/share. My primary intension is to expose him to the real world reality of Apple's superiority.

Do you think this would be effective, or should I buy him a Mac mini instead?

***RE: 10 MILLION iPHONES IN 2008***

Check the following link between 3:05 and 3:35...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D-X_nLCz6Hc

Tell your friends...

buy him an iPhone

Feb 22, 08 - 07:33 pm Comment from: Ampar

Buy him a Mini, an iPhone and a hooker. Then he'll be the Mac Daddy.

Me-

Buy your relative both.

China has 500+ million cell phone users. 1% = 5 million. If 1 out of 100 buy an iPhone, Apple hits its number.

Apple store to open prior to Olympics. Can Apple sell 5 million phones in 6 months, either locked or unlocked? Of course it can.

Feb 22, 08 - 10:54 pm Comment from: ken1w

> you should understand that he is a very good analyst and knows his stuff.

Come on... He took an average weekly sales figure from late 2007, multiplied by 52 weeks and somehow came up with 7.9 million. Well, except that 180,000 x 52 = 9.4 million. So either he can't even do basic math or he adjusted by some arbitrary factor to get the number he wanted to get (something that was not quite 8 million).

But If he was actually a "good" analyst, he would assess if 7.9 million is a good or bad number for Apple, regardless of whether it hits 10 million or not.

Aww, heck, I know 10 million rabid Canadians who will but the thing in a heart beat if a) price is fair and b) they can offer a service comparable to what's available in the US - e.g., unlimited data and local calls. Then we can all tell Rogers and Telus where they can shove their cell phone towers.

MDN Magic Word: Blood, as in, "Telus and Rogers are trying to squeeze blood from a stone."

@nonarKitten

I find it hard to imagine even one rabid Canadian, let alone 10 million. How did so many get that way? And, how can a person tell which have succumbed?

@me

Gift him the iPhone, as he will certainly find more use for it initialy, compared to a Mac Mini, especialy as the SDK is just around the corner, which will no doubt let it blossom further.

A worthy $400 investment for you and him.

MDN has said many times in the past that the 10mill estimate is laughably low, there will be a bloodbath etc...but now MDN is clearly on the defense.

Steve needs to adjust his iPhone-carrier policy in Europe, I doubt Apple will sell more than 300-350K iPhones in total in Germany/France/UK in Q1 which is a big dissapointment.

Feb 23, 08 - 09:09 am Comment from: -hh

@ ken1w:

"Come on... He took an average weekly sales figure from late 2007, multiplied by 52 weeks and somehow came up with 7.9 million. Well, except that 180,000 x 52 = 9.4 million. So either he can't even do basic math or he adjusted by some arbitrary factor to get the number he wanted to get (something that was not quite 8 million)."

Which obviously means that his adjustment number was:

0.844017094017

(yup, very obvious & intuitive

"But If he was actually a "good" analyst, he would assess if 7.9 million is a good or bad number for Apple, regardless of whether it hits 10 million or not."

This is really more of the key point here. A seasick monkey can crank a couple of linear extrapolations - - but that's not what we should be expecting of a **professional** analyst. The reason these guys get paid is specifically to go beyond the monkey numbers and examine the _implications_ of various trend projections.


-hh

"Impact" as a verb is a terrible thing.

In a decent market, 10 million is laughably low. In a recession, it may not be low at all.

"Adobe makes Flash, not Apple. It's Adobe's problem to fix."

I'm sure they'll get right on it when an SDK for the iPhone is released.

What I love is how goals are reinterpreted as projections. I have goals too. I'd like to loose 20lbs by June 1st. If I only loose 19, does that mean I am a total failure? Just ridiculous... I am sure Apple will sell 10m iPhones. I know that a good chunk of the folks that have it now will buy the 3g model if it comes out for the US and ATT does more with their 3g deployment.

In the old days, to be an analyst meant that you spent time on the road, meeting with the company, watching from a seat in the corner, so that you had some RELEVANT information. Today, it seems like all these so called analysts shoot from the hip and do all their research via news channels and blogs and other analysts. Has this guy ever visited Cupertino? I doubt it.