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Analyst: Windows Vista may still impress many consumers because they have not seen Apple’s Mac OS X
Thursday, January 05, 2006 - 02:03 PM EST

"Microsoft Corp., which has found a foothold in the consumer's living room with its Xbox video game consoles, will be making a broader push in 2006 to help realize the elusive dream of a digital lifestyle for the masses, Chairman Bill Gates told a packed house in Las Vegas on Wednesday night," Matthew Yi reports for The San Francisco Chronicle. "A key ingredient will be the release of the software giant's next-generation operating system for personal computers, called Vista, which the company promises will start selling later this year, said Gates in his kick-off keynote address at the Consumer Electronics Show."

"2006 will be a crucial year for Microsoft, which has had enormous success in selling office productivity software but has made little progress in consumer electronics," Yi reports. "'There's a lot riding on Vista,' said Michael Gartenberg, an analyst at the market research firm Jupiter Research. 'Vista must be successful if they want to be an important player in the digital home.' Microsoft... is facing stiff competition on a number of fronts, analysts say. The list of its opponents ranges from consumer electronics giants such as Sony, which already rules the consumer living-room market, to its longtime nemesis Apple."

"The new Vista operating system will provide a sleeker, 3-D user interface, such as translucent windows that let users see what other programs are running in the PC. The software will also have an improved digital photo archiving system that allows consumers to store, search and edit photos," Yi reports. 'A lot of what we've seen in Vista has similarities with [Mac OS X] Tiger,' said Gartenberg, referring to the operating system on Apple Macintosh computers. Vista may still impress many consumers, because many of them may have never seen Apple's operating system. Apple's PC market share represents only about 3 to 4 percent of the industry, said Tim Bajarin, an analyst at the market research firm Creative Strategies."

Full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Apple needs to tell people via television (where you can still reach those who have no idea of Mac OS X) that Apple's already done it long ago and has it available today. We hope they start soon. It would be criminal to continue to keep the story of the Mac from the average consumer. We firmly believe that short 5-10 minute video explaining what Mac OS X can do the the average personal computer users should be shipped on every video-capable iPod sold. Why this isn't currently the case is baffling. Apple is squandering a huge opportunity to inform Windows iPod owners about Mac OS X. Apple doesn't even need to Think Different to do such a thing, they just need to think.

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Related MacDailyNews articles:
Why in Jobs' name doesn't Apple advertise the Macintosh? - October 27, 2005
More would switch from Windows to Mac if Apple advertised more effectively - September 04, 2005
Forrester analysts: Apple should advertise Mac OS X Tiger on television and in movie theaters - April 29, 2005
Mac fans line up for new operating system as passberby asks 'what is a tiger?' - April 29, 2005
Apple posts QuickTime movies of Mac OS X Tiger features in action - April 13, 2005
Why doesn't Apple advertise Mac OS X on TV? - April 12, 2005
Why doesn't Apple show its patented Mac OS X 'Genie Effect' in TV ads? - October 07, 2004
Top Ten things Apple needs to show the world about Macintosh - July 30, 2003

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Jan 05, 06 - 02:22 pm Comment from: eric

I think we'll see ads once they get an Intel mac shipping....

Jan 05, 06 - 02:23 pm Comment from: WizeGuy

Great Idea!

Straight away millions of people will find out what they are missing!

Jan 05, 06 - 02:26 pm Comment from: Hemorrhoid Rage

I can't help but think that maybe Apple doesn't want to grow its base by such a huge margin! Sudden spikes in growth are very unhealthy, especially for a company that manufactures physical products (unlike just software or services). Yeah, it would be great if all those Windows Grannies out there threw out their Del Taco PCs and switched, but would Apple be able to adjust to a suddenly higher demand? It seems to me they can't keep up with current demand.

Everyone is obsessed with market share, and I keep saying "F-ck market share." What's important is that a company shows profit and stable, consistent growth. Apple is doing that. We have our macs, the doofuses don't, and all is well with the world.

Jan 05, 06 - 02:29 pm Comment from: Jonahan

I still think Apple is waiting for something. Perhaps some final piece of the puzzle, or some last stumbling block before taking on the Redmond giant in a slugfest. Maybe it's the Intel Mac, or maybe it's some iLife Apps just in case MS pulls the plug on Office.

<shrug>

It's the only answer that makes sense to me.

Jan 05, 06 - 02:32 pm Comment from: Ampar

Demand can have downside if you're not prepared. Let's not forget the past.

From apple-history.com:
"Apple's worst problem wasn't selling computers--it was building them. By June 1995 Apple had $1 billion dollars in backorders--and did not have the parts to build them. Apple's problems were added to by the late-summer release of Windows '95, which mimicked the Mac GUI better than ever.

Apple took its worst plunge ever in the winter of 1995-96. Misjudging the market, Apple pushed low-cost Performas over mid-range PowerMacs, and failed to make a profit at all. Apple posted a $68 million loss for that quarter. In January 1996, Spindler was asked to resign as CEO and was replaced by Gil Amelio, the former president of National Semiconductor."

Spindler had evidently missed the classes on forecasting in business school.

Jan 05, 06 - 02:36 pm Comment from: Shemp

H. Rage is right on the money! Well-stated.

Jan 05, 06 - 02:36 pm Comment from: typhoon

i think Apple could keep up with demand. they only make what they need now, i don't think they're short on parts or anything. if dell makes their money in volume, then Apple should do what it can to sell more units. dell can crank out PC's, apple could too. it's really a shame that iPod ads really sold the iPod, but mac ads, when you can find 'em, don't tell you what the heck you're looking at.

Jan 05, 06 - 02:40 pm Comment from: MacDude

Apple needs to tell people via television (where you can still reach those who have no idea of Mac OS X) that Apple's already done it long ago and has it available today. We hope they start soon. It would be criminal to continue to keep the story of the Mac from the average consumer. We firmly believe that short 5-10 minute video explaining what Mac OS X can do the the average personal computer users should be shipped on every video-capable iPod sold. Why this isn't currently the case is baffling. Apple is squandering a huge opportunity to inform Windows iPod owners about Mac OS X. Apple doesn't even need to Think Different to do such a thing, they just need to think.


Problem is Apple did advertise for the PowerMac G5 and demand was so great that IBM was unable to keep up with demand.

Apple has always had a problem with supply, except in the case of the iPod where they made dam sure to suck up all the parts way in advance.

Now switching to Intel chips Apple will no longer be restrained, because for every Mac sold would mean one less PC sold as they both will be using the same processors.

No more supply problems, so really expect Apple to pull out all the stops next year.

TV advertising, radio etc. One linch-pin of course is compatibility with Office on Windows. M$ could hobble OfficeMac, but then Apple could retaliate and come out with thier own version and better compatability with M$ files.

I suspect this is being worked on at the moment.

Jan 05, 06 - 02:45 pm Comment from: carlo

it is damn criminal, I actually can't beleive that Apple isn't advertising more. It's such an obvious mistake. I often think steve jobs has a bet with bill gates that he will win the os war without advertising.

I mean they're opening a lot of quality stores to get exposure. thats what advertising is. so its not that they dont want more market share. that is a ludicrous statement. Jobs wants to beat the nerd from redmond make no mistake about that.

but they basically do not advertise on tv for the mac.
i saw maybe 2 commercials featuring macs last year.

its the one thing i cannot fathom with Apple.

Jan 05, 06 - 02:47 pm Comment from: Stompin' Tom

The reality is, the windows masses are wholly ignorant of Mac, and will drool like starving dogs over Vista's semi-plagarized ersatz eye-candy. This is why SJ refers to 5% market share as a "glass ceiling."

Apple is into innovationg, making great products and services, and making loadsa dough on all aspects of its business. Worrying about the dominant OS is so 1992--it's yesterday's war. Apple lost it, and has moved on. Get over it.

Jan 05, 06 - 02:47 pm Comment from: dogfriend

I understand that some consumers are impressed by the Chevy Vega because they have never seen a Lexus.

Jan 05, 06 - 02:52 pm Comment from: calm down

just calm down, take it easy and never panic. We'll make it work (everywhere i read everybody is freaking)

Jan 05, 06 - 02:53 pm Comment from: Jake

Mac ads are awaiting MacTels. That will be the best timing:
1) Intel chips will eliminate the GHz myth (which is still widespread)
2) MacTels will permit the use of nearly unlimited industry-standard parts to handle demand
3) MacTels will (hopefully) provide switchers a "security blanket" in that they'll be able to run Windows
4) The iPod phenomenon has created an opportunity of millions if Winblows users who will be open to another pitch from Apple
5) Vista is late to market, while Tiger TODAY does much of what Vista promises it may eventually do
QED--Perfect timing.

Jan 05, 06 - 02:56 pm Comment from: johnnyd

it makes me wonder if we are going to see any apple commercials during the superbowl...

Jan 05, 06 - 02:56 pm Comment from: theMacDude

Ampar is correct.

I worked for Apple in the 90's when Apple had US manufacturing. I was there at the tail end of Scully, had 2 years of Spindler and eventually got sacked by Amelio. Parts shortages were also common with the ASICS on the PPC motherboards. Not only could Apple not keep up but engineering was going in all kinds of different directions which hurt big time. I would like to see Apple grow but not too fast. A controlled burn...yeah, that's it.

Jan 05, 06 - 02:57 pm Comment from: Mac4lfe

Have no fear everyone, the masterplan will be in play a few days from now. Steve and company knows why they did not advertise OS X up until now. There is no way a group of such talented people would not think about advertising at all. They are just waiting for the right moment just like with the iPod with video. It had good timing.

Now, all that said. I rather have a rock solid OS and good innovation over market share anyday as long as Apple is profitable.

Jan 05, 06 - 03:01 pm Comment from: winmacguy

@ Ampar
Thanks for the Apple history link. It will be very useful

Jan 05, 06 - 03:04 pm Comment from: qka

Maybe Apple should give away DVDs of your suggested video - just like AOL, EarthLink, etc. does with their software CDs.

Over the holidays I noticed many stores - drugstores, grocery, etc. - selling iTunes gift cards. Through some of the DVDs in with the iTunes cards and get retailers to have them out. Or do whatever AOL, EarthLink, etc. are doing.

FREE is always a powerful inducement.

Jan 05, 06 - 03:09 pm Comment from: Andreas

MacDailyNews..

.. on the one hand, a great idea, seriously! Good thinking! I wouldn't have thought about that at all and I loved the idea immediately!

... but then, on the other hand.. do we need that? Are we (speaking as Apple) so needy that we need to show "look, look, we are better, look!"? What does that say about us?

It's a simple thing. Is Porsche running TV spots? Apple should keep being simply amazing. Their PC business is showing consitent growth and a profit. That's enough. Keep it running like this and the bomb *will* drop. On it's own. Like the iPod before, the iMac will one day spin heads and drive the world to madness. Soon.

Jan 05, 06 - 03:15 pm Comment from: notatotalsucker

Are we all naive enough to presume that if a) Apple advertises, and b) they can keep up with demand, that the consumers will rush out and buy a Mac?

I really doubt that, at least in the short term.

Apple has a major pricing perception problem. I think this is their most severe issue which needs to be tackled. The second severe issue is the perception of the lack of compatibility with software/hardware products.

Most people believe Apple's computers are simply too expensive; they don't want or need Firewire ports, or separate graphics cards for their video (unless they play games), or want to pay for reasonable quality.... they just want to buy a computer for the cheapest possible price because it's only going to last 2 years. The list of "why nots" when buying a Mac is very long and most of the time revolves around the money issue in one way or another.

The compatibility issue is a myth (FUD?) perpetrated by PC vendors and has become so ingrained it's hard to turn it around. Also remember that 20 years ago, Apple's products were very different and weren't compatible with most PC hardware (evidently Apple saw the light, or the writing on the wall, take your pick.)

However, since about the mid 90s, Apple's machines have used fairly standard PC components (memory, disk, video etc.), so it's fairly easy to buy Mac components from PC vendors (although this has required some research on the net first - to ensure that DVD burner x will work on a Mac, or that memory chip vendor y makes chips which are to the appropriate engineering specs Apple adheres to.) With the move to Intel, it'll become one of software driver support more than anything.

The software issue is also generally easily sorted - most have file format compatibility across the Mac & PC. However, I don't believe people realize this is the case, which is why Apple is overlooked and it's thus easy to say "They're too expensive. Oh, and besides, I can't run my existing software on the machine" (which is often pirated in the case of home users, but that works both ways... it's just you have to go to some effort to pirate Mac software since the neighbor likely hasn't got a Mac. Maybe they haven't yet heard of a little thing called the Internet?)

At least these are the two issues I hear about the most often. I don't really hear "I can't get one coz of supply issues" or "Apple? Aren't they out of business? I haven't seen them advertise a Mac recently."

Jan 05, 06 - 04:08 pm Comment from: Jeff

The sky is falling. I totally agree with MDN about a video on the iPod. Take a look at the videos available at the Ruby on Rails site. That video alone has sent Ruby on Rails skyrocketing in popularity as a web framework. I think something similar on the iPod or even on Apple's site would have a similar effect.

Jan 05, 06 - 04:11 pm Comment from: LordRobin

I don't what everyone finds so dang mystifying. Apple doesn't advertise Mac OS X because Steve Jobs doesn't think it's worth it. If you'll remember, they advertised quite a bit during his exile.

Jobs' preferred method of marketing Mac OS X is to build hip retail stores, stock them with iPods to attract customers, and let them try the OS. It seems to be working, albeit not as fast as some on this board would like.

And I really doubt there will be much excitement among consumers about Vista, any more than XP generated excitement. People will stick with what they have until they buy a new PC, same as always.

Jan 05, 06 - 04:14 pm Comment from: billysmom

the faithfull will refrain from criticising Local Leader Steve J's marketing plans. HE knows the exact moment when the evil troll of redmond will be rendered irrelevant. be patient.

Jan 05, 06 - 04:16 pm Comment from: OzzysCross101

I smell commercial previews next week- and for once in a long time, theyre NOT iPod ads!!!

Jan 05, 06 - 04:24 pm Comment from: MacDude

Look if you want advertising look no further than this site.

Plenty of Apple videos

http://www.esm.psu.edu/Faculty/Gray/movies.html

Jan 05, 06 - 04:51 pm Comment from: meatofmoose

PC users will have to be happy with whatever Microsoft feeds them regardless of how long it take Microsoft to deliver it.

Jan 05, 06 - 04:56 pm Comment from: mark

If a new mac mini is Apple's digital media center for the living room, I would expect a marketing campaign around that, which could include TV ads. It would show music and video - possibly ending with the line: mac mini + iTunes.

If there is a newly designed iBook that includes a built-in iSight and Front Row, I can see ads for that. But I don't expect any ads to trumpet Mac OS X or iLife or iWork specifically.

By the way, I haven't seen any iPod ads that emphasize the video part of the iPod. Have there been any?

Jan 05, 06 - 04:58 pm Comment from: Davidlow

Jake, That's a good list. I'd like to add to it:

Your List:
1) Intel chips will eliminate the GHz myth (which is still widespread)
2) MacTels will permit the use of nearly unlimited industry-standard parts to handle demand
3) MacTels will (hopefully) provide switchers a "security blanket" in that they'll be able to run Windows
4) The iPod phenomenon has created an opportunity of millions if Winblows users who will be open to another pitch from Apple
5) Vista is late to market, while Tiger TODAY does much of what Vista promises it may eventually do

My two Additions:
6) Apple now has it's own retail distribution network. People forget the days when Steve Jobs was furious with the other retail channels because the sales people tended to steer every customer away from Macs and toward PCs, even when they came in to see Macs. That was his motivation for creating the Apple Retail Stores in the first place.
7) Apple has been putting together their own suite of office-type products. A new spreadsheet called "Numbers" is expected next week, the FileMaker datatbase app is nothing less than astounding, and Pages is extremely well refined for a version 1 app, hopefully to be improved upon next week also.

***
By the way, Pages is a very good word processor. But Mac users seem to think of Pages the way PC users think of the Mac. If you own a Mac and haven't tried pages, then you can examine your own reluctance in order to gain an understanding of why people aren't flocking to the Mac.

Try Pages, and not just with the built-in templates, but as a word processor starting from a blank page. There's a learning curve and a different paradigm to get accustomed to, but in the end it's worth it. Sound familiar?
***

Jan 05, 06 - 05:03 pm Comment from: mac dude

One hypo-thing...

After apple rolls out their Macs w/ Intel they provide a free 5 minute video Mac commercial download on iTunes.

No advertising dollars spent on TV or print adds.

smart eh?

Jan 05, 06 - 05:28 pm Comment from: MacDoctor

MDN has it right again. However I'd like to see Apple have two or three TV ads for Mac OS X and one or two each for each of the portables and desktops.
Apple is under much better management now, and if proper planning is executed the Company could handle spikes in demand.
Dell does it, HP does it and Apple could do it too if it just would.
Perhaps after the intro of Intel into the Apple lineup we'll see some TV ads…and larger market share.

Jan 05, 06 - 05:49 pm Comment from: ron

MS has some great ads. Their product may not be the best but you can't tell that from the ads. Apple, on the other hand, has great products but NO ads. What is the guy on the street going to do?

Ads work, so he's going to buy MS. Pity.

Jan 05, 06 - 06:13 pm Comment from: Macaday

What I want is the uncontrolled and complete destruction of Mycrowsoft!

When their bug riddled pc's don't work anymore make the buggers wait in line to buy Macs - and give priority to people who are upgrading so we can sell our used machines at a great profit!

Jan 05, 06 - 07:09 pm Comment from: hammer

Apple doesn't need to reach the masses, just the people who aren't currently using Macs who would be good Mac users. Face the facts, Joe Nascar doesn't give a crap about the added benefits of an Apple product. They don't get it. They would rather have a McDonalds hamburger because it's cheap instead of a steak. They would rather be able to buy software at any store, linculding off the counter of a rest stop gas station because the windows market is big enough to allow crap like that to survive. It gives them comfort to have a choice of 325 different word processors and any crappy game that two kids in their basement can patch together.

To people like these 'just good enough' is all they need and that's what they get with Windows.

There are a lot of people though who do use Windows that would be great Mac users, those are the ones Apple needs to go after.

Jan 05, 06 - 08:01 pm Comment from: Cubert

I agree Apple needs to advertise more (some?), but to put a commercial for the Mac on each iPod sold, as MDN suggests, would just turn off the average consumer to Apple and its "intrusive" ways.

Jan 05, 06 - 08:28 pm Comment from: mike

you can't say they don't advertise.. Apple is seeing about, 2 million people a week or something in it's stores?

2 mil a week are looking at actual macs, and maybe even playing with them.. that's a lot better than an ad

Jan 05, 06 - 08:29 pm Comment from: Loooong wait for ShortHorn

There bound to be some pc idiots who would still claim M$ comes out with this super innovative features before Apple!

Jan 05, 06 - 09:40 pm Comment from: Sean

I don't see what the big deal is with getting all these people to convert to macs is all about. As long as we know whats better then who cares I mean I would like more people to realize that there is a better OS and a way better computer, but as long as I am a Mac owner I don't care if the kid next store is gonna use one for the internet. I think that the people who are gonna be a mac user are gonna be one anyway reguardless of a commercial or not. If your a musician, artist, or designer your gonna use a mac anyway for obvious reasons. Any design school, or recording school is already teaching with the mac those are the people that matter not the people just surfing the net and checking there email. Macs are used for designing and for being innovative thats what counts and thats what they are best at doing. The average email user isn't going to pay for a good computer reguardless they are only using it for simple tasks.

Jan 05, 06 - 09:43 pm Comment from: chadseld

I agree with Davidlow, Pages is far better than I thought it was at first. Upon first glance, it looks far too simple and lacking in needed features. However, once you take a look at the users manual and try it out on a project, a grin begins to form on your face. Still, it's a 1.0 and (just like Keynote 1.0) there is a lot of room for improvement. Here's hoping for 2.0 next week smile

Jan 05, 06 - 11:40 pm Comment from: Someone who's Bored

I think apple is waiting for something. Either they're gonna take over this year or 2008.

Why 2008?

In 2008, over 80% of americans are expected to have HDTVs in the household, and every tv network will be practically forced to broadcast in HD. The entire mac line-up will by then have amazing performace with Intel chips. We'll probably even have tv tuners in every desktop mac too.

The commericals start rolling on our tv showing of the mac mini coming with a remote, containing a 250 gb flash drive, 2 gb memory, and dual-core processor running at 4 ghz.

Maybe I'm just babbling. I honestly want the mac to start slowly taking over this year, then get the non-believer in 2008......

Jan 06, 06 - 05:43 am Comment from: MacRaven

Hammer--
"Face the facts, Joe Nascar doesn't give a crap about the added benefits of an Apple product. They don't get it. "

Guess my extended family are exceptional NASCAR fans--we all have Macs and portables! : ) But I agree with your point. For most it's word processing and games. The put down on Macs has always been that it's not a "real" computer. In my opinion, MS is more the featureless toy (to non-business users). There is the problem though because the non-business sector wants CHEAP.

I agree with the MDN pust to advertise OSX. The person who gave the CD tour of it to enclose with EVERY iPod is sheer genius--go appy for a job at Apple marketing please.

On Tuesday if Steve previews an OSX and or iMac TV commercial with iLife you will probably see a crowd on it's feet cheering like the final point in a tied Super Bowl was just scored for our team and I will be the first one shooting out of my chair and jumping up and down.

My opinion is a commercial on how OSX and iLife totally rocks for the average consumer is what is needed at this point with Vista in the near future. It's comparison importance to the non-Mac public has arrived. Keep your fingers crossed this week.

Jan 06, 06 - 05:45 am Comment from: MacRaven

Sorry for the numerous spellling errors above. I'm typing in the dark, and iBooks don't light up the keys like Powerbooks.

Jan 06, 06 - 09:24 am Comment from: WWJD

Apple isn't a computer company anymore, it's a consumer company. The iPod helped Apple make the switch. Microsoft continues to sell itself as computer company because it's their OS and Office that makes them money. That said, why would Apple waste time on advertising X, when it's the iPod that making them own and generating money. People don't care about computers anymore (that is 90's stuff), it's all about consumer products..iPod.

Sep 08, 06 - 04:45 am Comment from: Andre

YOU and ME, have the same idea, the movie in every ipod video capable, even i think a single mp3 in every ipod, im sure many out there, think the same... why the marketing of apple dont come with the idea, i would hope at least one of marketing guy sons share the idea.

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