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Sun, Mar 21, 2010 - 10:30 AM EDT  —  AAPL: 222.2499 (-2.4001, -1.07%)  |  NASDAQ: 2374.41 (-16.87, -0.71%)

Apple analyst smackdown: Bernstein’s Toni Sacconaghi vs. Piper’s Gene Munster
Tuesday, January 20, 2009 - 02:14 PM EDT

Apple Store"It continues to amaze me that analysts who specialize in Apple (AAPL) can look at the same data and come to such different conclusions," Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune.

MacDailyNews Take: It's only amazing if you naively believe that analysts exist purely to explain what they think is likely to happen rather than move the price in whatever direction would benefit their paying clients.

Elmer-DeWitt continues, "Case in point: Reports issued Tuesday morning by Bernstein Research’s Toni Sacconaghi and Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster. Both analysts examined the latest NPD data — released a day before Apple’s fiscal Q1 earnings call — but they didn’t see the same thing."

"'Sales Weak,' begins the headline in the report by Sacconaghi, who has a history of bearish predictions for Apple. Based on the latest data, he is lowering his earnings and revenue estimates for both the quarter and the year," Elmer-DeWitt reports. "'iPod & Mac Appear Solid,'counters Munster, one of Apple’s strongest supporters. Munster is sticking with his price target of $235 per share. The stock opened Tuesday at $81.97."

Bottom line, unit sales for 2009 Q1:

• Mac: Munster: 2.5 million to 2.6 million. Sacconaghi: 2.57 million
• iPod: Munster: 18.6 million. Sacconaghi: 18.1 million
• iPhone: Munster: 6.4 million. Sacconaghi: 3.5 million to 4 million


Much more in the full article here.

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Jan 20, 09 - 03:21 pm Comment from: iStepchild

Let's start analyzing the analysts and give heat to the ones who continually get it wrong undermining Apple. If they skew it, skew them publicly...make them think and work harder and give the real numbers. The media needs to stand accountable to the public in every category. With their ratings going thru the roof over TV shows because of pooping the economy and negatively influencing the average Joe's investments, they will not stop as long as concerned people are tuning in. Hold them accountable. Steve Job's health is the tip of the iceberg...our investments are greatly affected by skewed newz.

Jan 20, 09 - 03:22 pm Comment from: Demon

AAPL is so under valued at this point that their should be a feeding frenzy in the stock no matter how lukewarm Apple's results are.
Apple has the strongest balance sheet in the industry and can't make any head way in the market, which means their is still too much of AAPL Stock in the portfolios of retirement funds and hedge funds whom are selling it off a little a the time, just as the price starts to get some upward traction, to just cover their redemption payouts.

Jan 20, 09 - 03:31 pm Comment from: ericdano

Hasn't Munster been more correct than the other guy?

Jan 20, 09 - 03:33 pm Comment from: Demon

I'm Still of the opinion that the FTC needs to regulate and restrict what these so called Analysts can say. The facts are they are mouth pieces for investment companies and what they say and how it is said is designed to move the targeted stock in the direction that will best benefit their clients and their interests. The markets will be better off without the so called Analysts adding their influence to the market. If the FTC does not act to muzzle the so called Analysts the markets are going to get much much worse in the coming year or two.
The FTC needs to regulate and license all so called Market and Stock Analysts.

Jan 20, 09 - 03:49 pm Comment from: Rob

Don't you see what's going on?
They are playing their game the day before Apple will announce financial results.
I bet that Apple will surprise everyone with higher than expected numbers, and those anal-ysts already know that. They are trying to bring the price down so they can buy it low today and sale tomorrow.
So what if they "miss," few bad articles about them and few hundred $s in their pocked. Hmmm, tough decision, cheat and retire in style, or be accurate and honest and work till your 80's (new retirement age.)

Jan 20, 09 - 03:51 pm Comment from: R2

6.4 million in iPhone sales would be a miraculous feat.

Jan 20, 09 - 04:04 pm Comment from: KenC

Why would the FTC need to get involved? Are they talking on the radio? And, I think all of these people you are talking about are SEC regulated and licensed.

Jan 20, 09 - 04:08 pm Comment from: WriterGuy

@KenC

Actually, it would be the FCC if it involved the radio. But you're right -- the agency involved with insider trading and stock manipulation is the SEC.

Jan 20, 09 - 04:20 pm Comment from: CD

Noone trusts the banks anymore, and it is easy to get into a credit union now. I hope credit unions rack up bigtime, as the people invested in it, own it. The SEC is murky water, and needs to become transparent also, like the banks.
Bail out the banks, but don't dare ask them to bail you out. Right now banks are only agreeing to refinance the cream of the crop, not the average Joe, and never at a ballpark closing cost. Just like the IRS, consumer confusion makes them money. People are getting smart, and it is time to kick their butts.

Jan 20, 09 - 04:37 pm Comment from: Nutcracker

Bernstein’s Sacconaghi vs. Piper’s Gene Munster....

Catfight on 3... 2...1...


GO!!!!!!!!!

Jan 20, 09 - 04:46 pm Comment from: doc

Munster told every one, after the fact, that aapl was "going to 130, no matter what", down from 180?

Jan 20, 09 - 07:40 pm Comment from: Amazing

MacDailyNews Take: It's only amazing if you naively believe that analysts exist purely to explain what they think is likely to happen rather than move the price in whatever direction would benefit their paying clients.

It IS amazing.

Wall Street finally realizing that Apple is horribly undervalued?
Tuesday, February 12, 2008 - 11:33 AM EST
[AAPL $124.86]

"Apple shares are off 37 percent so far this year. The stock is inching back as the clouds on Wall Street begin to dissipate, and the Apple story re-captures a kind of clarity missing these past few months," Goldman reports. [Yes, that Jim Goldman]

MacDailyNews Take: The clarity of Apple's story was never obscured for those not easily blinded by the rather transparent manipulations of others.
http://www.macdailynews.com/index.php/weblog/comments/16368/

Jan 20, 09 - 09:51 pm Comment from: TowerTone.

Gene Munster:

Gene Munster explains why Apple will have larger market share than Microsoft

Jan 20, 09 - 11:57 pm Comment from: Always Right

TT, are you serious?
Click on your link.

Jan 21, 09 - 12:03 am Comment from: bobchr

@ Demon
You may have a point as Apple stock is 67.9% owned by institutions at this time and it generally takes them 6 to 18 months to move into or out of a position so they don't influence prices. My calculations state that from a fundamentals view point they should be buying stocks like Apple so the sell cycle should have bottomed out already. Apple has a P/E ratio between 13.5 to 14.5 right now and a strong balance sheet.

It's the hedge fund managers that are the real worry. When this trend reverses they will have to cover a lot of short positions so it's in their interest to keep the stock in a channel , from 75 to 95 . Open interest in 100 and 110 calls for the month of April is around 18000 for each and currently the most actively traded. This represents controlling 1.8 million shares of stock current value at $5.7 million for the 100 calls and $2.3 million for the 110 calls if sold today. Two weeks ago each value might have been double todays prices.

Since most hedge fund managers tend to use little actual cash, they would probable sell a bunch of long term out of the money calls to buy fewer close to the money or in the money puts. This way they make money on both ends without having to expend their own capital but if the technical analysis which is trend based starts to go against their position they would be out like a flash.

Jan 21, 09 - 02:03 am Comment from: Roger Knights

TowerTone's link goes to a porn site. It should be removed.

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