MacDailyNews - Where Mac news comes first

Aug 11, 08 - 08:10 am Comment from: Occasional Poster

Let the games begin!

The snow ball is rolling!

Aug 11, 08 - 08:13 am Comment from: TowerTone

As a witness from Nokia said "That's sixty million, with an 'Oh!'".

Aug 11, 08 - 08:17 am Comment from: John

.... and how do those folks that claimed the iPod games Apple put on iTunes (obviously a test-bed for this platform in hindsight!) was a silly side avenue and would never amount to anything feel now? Pretty damned stupid I'm guessing!

You could see this one coming over a year ago....

Aug 11, 08 - 08:27 am Comment from: HMCIV

Hmm... well putting my Jim Cramer hat on for a minute, that must mean...

that Apple's having supply chain problems!! GASP! Short the Stock!!!!

if, and when...

Aug 11, 08 - 08:46 am Comment from: madgunde

I wonder if they are counting initial download of an app to a unique user account, or all downloads, including updates? Because if it's the latter, than I think I account for probably 10% of their total downloads because of the busted update mechanism in iTunes that kept reporting some of my apps as needing an update, no matter how many times I downloaded it.

Oh, and for those who had this same problem (iTunes reporting that there are updates available and installing multiple copies in your ~/Music/iTunes/Mobile Applications folder), here is the solution:

http://artofgeek.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=57&t=1178&sid=d6572e9f9cfb575f917679f4aded3cae

The pace of download will slow down in a while. Just as any blockbuster movie.
'Cause right now, people download whatever... it's a very very childish behaviour

Don't get me wrong, there's still be lots of downloads.
However it'll only be for the most important apps.

Just like in the nature, only the useful apps will survive the rest.
Slowly, app store will be a serious success, not as the current immature one.

For comparison, how long did it take for iTunes music downloads to reach $1M per day?

I'd say Apple hit the cover off the ball.

I bought Netshare and complained about loss of updates when it got pulled - Apple gave me a full refund, and I get to keep the app! (But no updates, sadly.)

Aug 11, 08 - 09:04 am Comment from: phantasmosxmagnum

John said:"You could see this one coming over a year ago...."

That's true and you can see that even when the competition is given a clear warning they still have that "deer in the headlights" look and WTF happened?! An Apple App store where did that come from?! Doe!

Aug 11, 08 - 09:10 am Comment from: Mel Gross

I don't understand why MDN thinks that Apple made a bad call in removing "I am Rich", and refunding the money to those who asked for it. At least a couple of people said that they didn't even mean to buy it.

If you dont own Apple stock, buy it now..

it"ll never be much cheaper..

Refunding the money to those that didn't intend to buy it is fine, but pulling the app for no reason other than that it was tacky was ridiculous. This is still a free country the last time I checked after all. If someone is stupid enough to waste their money on something useless like that, it's still their free right to do so.

Aug 11, 08 - 09:19 am Comment from: jarrettdailynews

@Mac+

How will the pace slow down? Did Apple already discontinue the iPhone and iPod Touch. Because, when I think of snowballs, as they are rolling down the hill they are collecting more and more snow along the way. So along the way the get bigger.

Oh, you meant that developers have made the last App.. Well then I stand corrected.

Look, Apple will sell more and more Touch devices, which we and others will be in droves. Developers will create more Apps which we and others will buy.

My prediction, 100 million Apps for the 2nd month.

@ jarrettdailynews

"they are rolling down the hill they are collecting more and more snow along the way"

This is not the way it works. There's a fact: Tons of the apps aren't useful at all
Today people download just for the sake or the fun of it, because it's all new.

Tomorrow most of the customers will realize they use only 1 or 2 of their 20 downloads.
And this is where the pace is going to slow down big time in the upcoming months.

Now my theory is that slowly, the real useful apps and cool games will emmerge above the rest.
It'll be about the top 10 games, the top 10 productivity apps, etc, and the rest will be crap, crap, crap.

When that happens, and only when it's happen, we'll know what's the real pace of download.
I trully think that basing analysis on people downloading non-useful stuff is totally unrealistic.

Where are all the nay-sayers from last year who said that anyone who wanted real apps on the iPhone was a whiner?

MDN, where are the links to your takes from last year saying that no apps, or later, web apps, were all that anyone would ever need?

Anyone willing to admit that people pushing on Apple to provide what they want is a good thing?

Daniel, the whiner

Aug 11, 08 - 09:44 am Comment from: Fred Mertz

DanielN,

Apple planned the App Store all along. Anyone who know anything at all about OS development knows this. The iPhone OS was designed for an eventual App Store. Apple is merely rolling out the next great platform in measured steps. Copy-and-Paste is next.

"Cause right now, people download whatever... it's a very very childish behaviour"

How dare you! "More Cowbell" is the best app ever.

Aug 11, 08 - 10:15 am Comment from: SteveJobsAllergy

It would be awesome if Apple would let us make and distribute our own music through iTunes in the same fashion .... ............ ........

And my downloads only account for 1.5 million of the total.
Backing them up in iTunes is a bitch.

It's gonna to take a while for this ball to stop rolling.

First, the number of iPhones will be going up exponentially over the next 5 years.

Second, the number of apps will be going up exponentially over the next 5 years.

'Who knows, maybe it will be a $1 billion marketplace at some point in time.? Maybe? Maybe!! Sure the downloads will slow for the stupid apps, but all you need is a few more "Super MonkeyBalls" to pick up the slack. This thing is barely off the ground and mainly supplied by small developers. Just think what will happen when the big boys get involved—Oracle, IBM, Adobe, Id software. Just think what happens when Apple revamps its iPod touch and offers a $199 version. PSP and Nintendo DS could be in for a world of hurt.


I bet it will be $1 billion within the year.

"all you need is a few more "Super MonkeyBalls" to pick up the slack."

You could start by harvesting Ballmer's.

Aug 11, 08 - 12:41 pm Comment from: zmarc

To the doubters, look at it this way... those 300,000 Monkeyballers are just 10% of the iPhone 3Gs sold in the first month...

That means Apple's already got a HUGE market for their apps. Developers are going to flock to iPhone even more. Just imagine how it will be when Apple's selling 40 million iPhones per year!

jarrettdailynews,

I agree with you, and consider Mac+'s arguments only valid in a more or less static market. But it isn't static.
Twenty-two new countries in a few days are going to get the iPhone and before the end of the year it's going to be another twenty odd - probably including China!
But that's not all. The sales of iPhones will probably maintain momentum or increase in the countries where it's now selling.
That means the number of iPhone (and iPod touch) owners will dramatically increase in the coming months, which means, of course, that the number of sold 'apps' will also dramatically increase.

Aug 11, 08 - 01:14 pm Comment from: Micro Me

You're still wrong on the "I Am Rich" issue MDN. Apple made the correct judgement call in deciding that they would not knowingly host and endorse a scam.

Aug 11, 08 - 02:11 pm Comment from: BC Kelly

Don't know the author of this article, Wall Street Journal's Nick Wingfield, and don't have anything against him

But he shows the *typical* Computer-Tech-Analyst-Guru-Expert-Writer-Commentator in himself when he says:


"I've never seen anything like this in my career for software."


Well, duh

Unless he was writing about VisiCalc way back when

Is doubtful his "career" could be more than 10 to 15 years

And 10 to 15 years ain't squat






Thanks, BC

Aug 11, 08 - 02:19 pm Comment from: BC Kelly

Hey Nick Fury


Ha ha ha ha - now THAT's a Good One™


But can't imagine his are truly "Super"

So we'll just have to take your word for it


BC

"So we'll just have to take your word for it"

There's a super secret club underneath Mount Rushmore where billionaires gather to bounce their super balls at each other. Super Ballmer always brings cupcakes, extra chairs and towels.
Every meeting ends with a spirited rat-tail chase in the locker room.

I think people are underestimating the rate that Apps will continue to be purchased downloaded. Without a doubt there was an initial surge because of the novelty of the platform. But here are some reasons why the App store will continue to grow at phenomenal rate:

1) More phones means more App store users. There were 6 million phones available before the 3G and it's estimated that another 3 million have sold for a total of 9 million. Some analysts have projected that Apple will sell 45 million iPhones next year. That's 45 million new customers who haven't yet gotten over the "novelty" of the app store.

2) the OS will continue to improve and allow for new and better programs.

3) The hardware will continue to improve and allow more more powerful feature laden programs.

4) Programmers have just touched the tip of the iceberg. Epocrates is a truly useful program for doctors. But now that the iPhone and App store are a reality who knows what vertical applicaitons may arise? The potential for a mobile computer platform is limitless.

Aug 11, 08 - 03:40 pm Comment from: BC Kelly

Nick Fury


Didn't Nicholas Cage make a movie about that a couple years ago ?

To BC Kelly:

Yeah, but in this case, the billionaires are the freebase sons.

Aug 11, 08 - 03:51 pm Comment from: BC Kelly

Ok, now, back to the subject at hand


Concerning Nick Wingfield saying:

"I've never seen anything like this in my career for software."

My Bad, d'oh


Lost track of MDN's " " and ' '


Tracked down the original article in WSJ

It wasn't Nick Wingfield who said that

It was our iJobs

Who WAS messing around with software at the time of VisiCalc

So, reckon that IS an honest and valuable statement


As much as we all love MDN, it does help to read the original article sometimes, and especially before we start jumping to conclusions


Ok, now if you'll excuse me, I have to take my foot out of my mouth in preparation of eating some crow







BC

Aug 11, 08 - 05:18 pm Comment from: Sir Gill Bates

Nick Fury,

" "all you need is a few more "Super MonkeyBalls" to pick up the slack."

You could start by harvesting Ballmer's."

Good luck finding someone to do THAT! I'd bet even Mrs. Ballmer wouldn't touch those shriveled nads of his.