“Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer on the iPhone, during an on-stage interview at the CEO Forum with USA Today’s David Lieberman,” John Gruber writes for Daring Fireball.
There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It’s a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I’d prefer to have our software in 60 percent or 70 percent or 80 percent of them, than I would to have 2 percent or 3 percent, which is what Apple might get. – Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer
Gruber writes, “Strong words, and an awful lot of competitive FUD packed into one short paragraph.”
“I’ve stashed away a slew of ‘iPhone doubter’ links over the last few months from various pundits and analysts, and the iPhone’s price, by far, is the most frequently cited reason for predictions of doom in the marketplace,” Gruber writes.
Gruber writes, “Some of these pundits and analysts are morons. Ballmer, however, is a very smart man, but what he’s saying about the iPhone is going to make him look stupid if it’s successful. He clearly doesn’t get what makes the iPhone so appealing, and his dual obsession with the price and business users is baffling.”
“Maybe I’m the moron, but the way I see it, if the iPhone’s initial price is wrong, it’s too low, not too high. Don’t compare it to other smartphones, which, yes, nearly all cost less than $499 when purchased with a plan. Compare it instead to the prices of the iPod,” Gruber writes.
Full article here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Twilightmoon” for the heads up.]
First..
LOL
MDN word “past”
Like it will all be in the past soon enough
We needed a blog to tell us Ballmer’s a moron? Me thinks that’s common knowledge!
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Ha, not my first submitted article, but the first one where I got credit…
Tho posting an article from DaringFireball is like shooting ducks in a barrel (a bit too easy).
This one quote has me scratching my head:
“Some of these pundits and analysts are morons. Ballmer, however, is a very smart man, but what he’s saying about the iPhone is going to make him look stupid if it’s successful.”
Isn’t there some sort of law against using “smart man” and “Balmer” in the same sentence? There should be if there isn’t.
The money line from this article at the end:
“We’ll see how long Steve Ballmer thinks the iPhone’s price is funny.”
Amen to that.
What’s different about the iPhone is that it is really the Mac Mobile, the mobile version of the Mac. A phone is just one of its features.
IMHO, Apple marketing missed this one. It should be selling a Mac Mobile as a new type of computer. One that scales from handheld, to laptop, to deskside supercomputer, to rack server.
My main concern is what will iPhone’s battery life be like and how long will that battery last before having to be replaced? It might turn out to be an expensive disposable item.
As someone who plans to own this phone when it comes out in June, I’m not one of the people that are worried about the battery life. Integrated batteries are harder to replace, true.. but how many of us have really replaced the batteries in our cell phones. Most of us replace the whole phone. In two years I expect the battery to still be fine, and will likely upgrade to some future more advanced version of the iPhone before the battery is an issue.
For those few that really does care about the battery, I can assure you that there will be plenty of ways it can be replaced. The iPod battery has numerous 3rd party battery replacement options. The iPhone will have the same plus if it gives out early on I have no doubt Apple will replace it for you.
Wasn’t there a report from an iPhone tester saying battery life was surprisingly good?
“Isn’t there some sort of law against using “smart man” and “Balmer” in the same sentence? There should be if there isn’t.”
Twi-
I think you just broke a law…..Damn!, Now I did it.
It’s hard to understand why Ballmer goes out of his way to set himself up for humiliation in this way. He doesn’t actually ~need~ to say that the iPhone is inevitably going to fail, nor does he ~need~ to make up misleading statistics. He could quite simply dismiss it as an interesting experiment and go on to make favourable references to Microsoft’s offerings instead, but he chooses to make specific predictions which fly in the face of what’s already known to be happening. There is an inevitability that his words will come back to haunt him and in just a few months too.
The only explanation that makes sense to me is that he must be holed up in some sort of bunker where he’s surrounded solely by ‘yes men’ who praise everything he does – however absurd. From Microsoft’s point of view, it’s good that the CEO is excited about Microsoft’s products, but it’s very undesirable to have a CEO who shoots his mouth off unnecessarily and will be shortly shown to have no understanding whatsoever about a massive change in the industry.
What Microsoft needs to be worried about is that shortly there will be ten million new devices running OS X. When all those people start getting accustomed to OS X as an OS, another perceived barrier to switching will have been demolished.
Gruber ( as always ) hits the nail on the head. He observes that the iPhone isn’t targeted at businessmen, it’s targeted at people. Some people are businessmen, so some businessmen will be using iPhones, but the point is that it’s not aimed at a narrow market. It offers something compelling to a great many different users, but all of those users will appreciate the easier interface.
Ballmer is obsessed with providing what he thinks businessmen want, Jobs is obsessed with providing what people want.
If Cingular subsidises other phones, I think they will subsidise the iPhone and everyone will win.
Seems to me Ballmer must be just plain sh1t scared of what the iPhone is about to do…
Good comment above: “Ballmer is obsessed with providing what he thinks businessmen want, Jobs is obsessed with providing what people want.”
Hits the nail on the head.
Ballmer is a smart man? Where is the proof of that. Lucky yes, I’ll give him that. Smart? Not likely. Clever maybe – but not smart. And creative is definitely Out.
I think I just broke the law.
Gary:
Apple’s marketing didn’t miss this one. It’s all about two things.
1. Keep it simple. Everyone knows what a mobile phone is, so it’s an easy concept to sell. Everything else is gravy. It’s a great phone but it also does all those other things.
2. There are still a lot of people who won’t buy a Mac, much like a lot of people who come here won’t buy a Windows PC. So, sell them a Mac, but call it something else.
I agree that iPhone is more than a phone, but I’ve read comments from people saying it should be called something like the iDevice. How the hell do you sell that? Without any explanation, you just know what an iPhone is or you can make a very good guess.
Also, as a consumer product, why would you be selling it as something that scales from handheld to rack server? Just how much demand do you think there is or would be for this?
Even while Steve was showing off the iPhone for the first time in January I thought that the iPhone was a really neat way to get OS X into Corporate offices guarded by IT idiots who veto anything other than Windows. WE all know it is a Mobile Computer AND a cell phone. But it is in our best interest to let things happen the way they will. Big shot Corporate CEO buys iPhone cause he likes the latest toys; brings it to work and TELLS the IT idiots to support it. End of story. The Mac is now in the shop. We win. Balmer as always, does not win.
“Ballmer, however, is a very smart man, but what he’s saying about the iPhone is going to make him look stupid if it’s successful.”
GOING to make him look stupid?
As if running around a stage in circles in a sweaty mess hasn’t already.
I’d hate to be a chair in his office, when he gets the first sales report.
Ballmer “A very smart man?” NO! Have you ever heard him in an interview. The man is an ass.
I’ll say one thing about the price.
The iPhone will have resale value. Can you say that about most other cell phones?
One nitpick with John’s article.
You can never take someone’s statement that they’re never going to release some certain product to mean that they really have no plans to build that product. (Steve Jobs is rather famous for this – declaring repeatedly, right up until Apple releases something, that Apple isn’t going to build such a thing.)
Has Steve ever said “Apple isn’t going to build such a thing”? My recollection is that on the rare occasions when Apple/Steve comments about nonexistent products phrases like “we have no plan to release such a thing” are used. This is 100% truthful, Apple does not plan to release things until the last minute, until they are ready for market (subject to a few factors like squashing rumors and gaining regulatory approval when they do preannounce). This is a bone of contention with The Street, pundits and partners but it keeps Apple honest, a factor overlooked by most.
Yes it is a stock phrase and yes there is room for interpretation in the word plan but whenever pressed the response IIRC has always been no (further) comment. If really pressed I am sure Apple/Steve would say something like “well I can’t say we haven’t thought about it but…..”
On the other hand Apple could say they have plans for a mid-range desktop, an ultra light portable, holographic screens, a tablet, portable screen, projector, widescreen TV, touch sensitive keyboard, remote control etc etc. I am sure all these have been considered and once considered the ‘plans’ remain in place even if ‘sitting on a shelf’ somewhere so the admittance of such plans would give no further information anyway.
@Gary
“What’s different about the iPhone is that it is really the Mac Mobile, the mobile version of the Mac. A phone is just one of its features.
IMHO, Apple marketing missed this one. It should be selling a Mac Mobile as a new type of computer.”
I disagree. For those of us that already admire the Mac this may be true. But the fact is that the over 90% of the world is still non-Mac. For much of that group there is an actual dislike of the Mac, or at least some negative perception. Apple is better off with people having no initial conception of the iPhone being a Mac dirivitive. Let the iPhone be marketed on its own merits. If and when it becomes a success and penetrates the market, then the tie in with Mac will be both easier and more productive.
The key for Apple, historically, is UNDERSELL.
Show it. Tease. Skim over a few key features.
NEVER show or tell too much.
The customers who get it, will buy it. Discover and tell their friends and colleagues. Macintosh… iPod… iPhone (maybe)
Think back on the Newton. John Sculley promised the world. Promised that Newton would do EVERYTHING…
It had perfect text recognition! It could organize, compute, link with your Mac, go online, fax, impregnate your barren wife…
As we ALL know, version 1.0 products are NEVER perfect and RARELY deliver the goods! Apple got HAMMERED by bad press and still suffers from a little Newton-itis today.
Look at Microsoft and Vista. When it was still in the conceptual stage, MS released a long laundry list of exactly what they <i> envisioned <i> Vista would do! When reality hit and they were forced to cut back… and cut and cut and cut. The Vista that actually shipped was a ghost of all that was promised. MS looked like a pack of fools. (Who am I to argue with that?)
That’s why Jobs and Co. are SO careful about how they put forth new products. if there’s trouble during development, NO ONE knows but the development team and Jobs. So whatever is released looks fantastic, because we’re all SURPRISED!
Under-promise OVER-deliver!
Sympian has more than 75% of the market share so how is it possible, that M$hit has 60, 70 or 80%??
People who think that the iPhone needs to be marketed as a type of computer are seriously missing the point.
People don’t buy computers because they’re computers. They buy a computer to do something that they can’t otherwise do. That may be surfing the Internet, playing games or creating music and images, but few people buy a computer simply because it’s a computer.
You don’t sell computers to a mass market, you sell a solution. That’s Apple’s big strength, it sells solutions. We often see people arguing whether Apple is a hardware or a software company. I always argue that they’re a solutions company and a particular solution involves varying proportions of hardware and software. The iPhone is just another solution.
I don’t understand the slam re the iPhone pricing.
The LG “Prada”, which has been closely compared to the iPhone, has a suggested price of over $700 U.S. without a carrier contract. Other similar (to iPhone) “smart” phones are also similarly priced.
A quick Google search found a free Prada phone but with an 18 month contract at 35 British Pounds / month (= $69.94 U.S.) = $1,259 total (18 months). More than twice the suggested 2 year (24 month) iPhone/AT&T plan.
I don’t even own a cell phone so maybe I’m missing something but when compared to other “similar” devices, together with the cell contract, I don’t see the killer difference in price that bozo’s like Ballmer continue to raise.
Or is it strictly raising typical FUD (re a new potential market upheaval product from Apple)?
…
@Gandalf
I believe that Jobs dismissed flash based small capacity MP3 players right up until Apple released the shuffle.
Many have noted the “halo” effect. That the positive sales of ipods have led to many people exploring and ultimately buying macs. Unlike an ipod, the iphone actually runs OS X. How much larger will the “halo” effect be when millions upon millions of non-mac people become favorably impressed with the OS that runs in macs?
DIE DIE DIE!!!!! DEATH KNELL!!!!! ARGH!! (SHANK, TWIST) DIE!!!!
MDN Magic Word: “gone”
“He observes that the iPhone isn’t targeted at businessmen, it’s targeted at people.”
Sounds hauntingly familiar.
“Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer on the iPhone, during an on-stage interview at the CEO Forum with USA Today’s David Lieberman,”
So he was “ON” an iPhone?
@ Falkirk
@Gandalf
I believe that Jobs dismissed flash based small capacity MP3 players right up until Apple released the shuffle.
Yes I believed he dismissed them too but when he did did he say “Apple is never going to……” or “Apple does not plan to….. enter the market/release such a product.”
Really it’s kinda like that phrase of advice to politicians ‘never say never’.
I could be wrong, maybe Apple did say something along more definitive at some time about some product but every time I recall seeing such a thing it has always been that the reporter has adopted the interpretation that suits their story best.
@ AlanAudio
“People don’t buy computers because they’re computers. They buy a computer to do something that they can’t otherwise do. That may be surfing the Internet, playing games or creating music and images, but few people buy a computer simply because it’s a computer.”
Hear hear. This is what the Windows Mobile Feature-Set Fetishists don”t see to be able to grasp. Sure, it can do a zillion things, but do I want to do any of those things? Do I even want to touch the device? It’s all about the Solution™. The best Solution to portable music, at the moment, is the iPod. By a long, long shot. The current crop of mobiles have lots of features… but the tool you hate to use is the last one you pick up, and that’s hardly the best solution to anything. And I bloody hate my phone, and I see nothing I the market compelling enough to change my mind.
No quite yet, anyway.
-c
MW: ‘used’ (rather than ‘promoted’)
the iPhone is not subsidised in any way. The $499 price tag is the full price. Apple has clearly said it was not subsidised.
This is very cheap, if you compare it to:
– the HP iPAQ 69×0 which is much more rudimentary (apart from the GPS antenna) which starts at $579 with a Cingular contract.
– a generic Pocket PC on the Dell website (the Asus Somo 650) which costs $520 without even having any phone features!
“Yes I believed he dismissed them too but when he did did he say “Apple is never going to……” or “Apple does not plan to….. enter the market/release such a product.”
I believe he used to say something along the lines of them being useless and that most people got them as a gift but forgot about them, because capacities were too low and interfaces were so bad. He was right about this, of course.
You can say “This sector sucks.” and mean it, if only because the right product for the sector hasn’t been created yet. You could say the same of Tablet computing, and you’d be correct. If the tablet market didn’t suck, then more people would use them. But price, utility, and interface robustness aren’t ready for most people’s expectations, so tablets are confined to professional applications and markets like medicine. Someone could certainly make a better tablet, that would appeal to these missing segments.
I think someone might.
-c
MW: ‘across’ (this antheap)
AlanAudio & Chrissy One…
Right ON!
Solutions. Solutions. Solutions!
Like the iPod or the original Palm, make the thing do a few things, but make them do what they do REALLY WELL.
Current cell phones are capable of doing lots of things, but how easy is it to actually use these “features”? If you can’t just use something easily and quickly, then you NEVER will use it.
If something has all the features in the world, but it’s difficult to access them, then what good are they?
How many people EVER learned how to program a VCR?
The promise of purpose means nothing!
“How many people EVER learned how to program a VCR?”
PERFECT analogy. And the answer is: almost no one. Not when you compare that to TiVo usage, for instance. The technology was there, the ability was there, but it was just too damned difficult to do what should have been a trivial task. TiVo created a better solution, and in turn opened up a market.
That market is now about to change again.
-c
MW: ‘and’ (the wind, it cries, Mary)
I don’t think Ballmer is a smart man. I think he was just smart enough to get something out the door that was barely functional and just smart enough to take advantage of people who are lazy and don’t do their homework. A fat wallet and does not make you smart! See http://www.ntk.net/media/dancemonkeyboy.mpg Anyone who, as CEO, jumps around like a Monkeyboy and screams “developers” and “I love this company” is also in the moron class. I will never give my money to someone who acts like that. I can’t believe so many sheep are still living on the Monkeyboy planet. Ballmer could at least use some anti-perspirant. He should buy Speed Stick!
I’ve never seen any compelling evidence of Bill Gate’s sublime brilliance, either. I’ve known a lot of software developers, and a lot of programers, and a lot of people with decent business sense. Bill has talents, but applying those talents to an emerging market at the right time hardly qualifies one as a ‘genius’. He didn’t see the internet coming. He doesn’t understand the consumer market. He can’t imagine new applications for computing, outside the smart-typewriter paradigm. He saw an empty car on the train and he jumped on, when no one else was looking. And he’s had quite a ride. Good for Bill. But calling him a genius for recognizing an opportunity is a stretch to say the least.
No tester, not even Apple, can know for sure what the battery life will be like after 6 – 12 months of heavy use with non-optimal charging.
Also comparing the battery life to a regular cell phone (which generally last the life of a 2 year contract) is invalid because the iPhone is also an ipod which suggests that it will get the usage of an ipod and cell phone combined. That is a lot of wear and tear on a battery.
You need to compare it to the price of an iPod PLUS the price of a phone, then it comes out to be a pretty decent value.
Simple answer to the original question in the title:
NO. Please, No it’s not.
> Ballmer, however, is a very smart man…
Really?
Battery life is probably not a problem as heavy users would need a protective holster (dock) that could carry the extra battery. iPhone is designed to create it’s own accessory ecosystem so who knows what people come up with.
It looks like the iPhone name could make sense after all, MacMobile type of name could fit well for a device that has a bigger screen. It could be called iMobile or something.
I should have mentioned this before, regarding price..
My xgf lost her cell phone and had to buy another one (this was with Verizon but I’m sure this is pretty much how it’d go with any carrier): 300 bux for the cheapest ones.. these were the so-called “free” handsets.
Cell phones are not “free” we just buy them with a plan, often 2 year plan. So, her 300 phone would have been “free” if she signed up for 2 year contract…. but how much do those cost? Well if you pay 50 dollars a month, and many people pay more than that, that costs you 1200 over 2 years..
Does anyone here think 1200 dollars is “free” ?
ChrissyOne:
“The current crop of mobiles have lots of features… but the tool you hate to use is the last one you pick up, and that’s hardly the best solution to anything. And I bloody hate my phone”
Chrissy, watch the reaction in the room when Steve Jobs announces that Apple is going to introduce a mobile phone. The roof practically blown off from people cheering so loud. You are NOT alone in hating your cell phone. A LOT of people really hate their cell phone, I don’t hate mine but I will NOT miss it.
One of the first things Jobs shows in his presentation, before he even goes into the features of the iPhone is the “business school 101 graph” on Smart, and Easy to Use. He puts regular cell phones about mid way on easy to use and low on smart, and so-called “smartphones” about mid way on smart but at the bottom of easy. Apple’s competitors DON’T get it, they think they are competing with the “features” of the iPhone based on what it can do, IGNORING the ease of use. That itself is THE key feature of the iPhone, and the rest of the industry ignores it at their own peril.
The iPhone won’t be 500 forever, they can count the days they have left when they can sell their crappy phones. Those days are rapidly coming to an end.
@ twilightmoon@mac.com
Agreed. I think it won’t be long before we think of mobiles as portable computers, and not phones at all. The phone is just one piece of the pie, but in the end it will be a minor one.
I think I read somewhere that Ballmer graduated class valedictorian. So he probably has a high IQ and gets good grades.
That’s not always synonymous with “smart”. Ballmer proves that every time he opens his fat mouth. We should all go edit his wikipedia page just for laughs.
Is the iPhone priced to low? No just like computers, but I pay for quality and the prices are far from to high. I wanted the features of the iPhone for a long time but all of these cell phone manufacturers and service providers cound’nt care less and now they will pay for it, except Cingular AT+T (lucky them, poor Verison LOL).
I just hope I don’t end up on some waiting list for the iPhone, 10 million phones is alot.
Steve Jobs is a one in a million and Ballmer is just typical of big business today, Dull and Boring INC.
Ballmer is the best that has ever happened to Apple. Thanks to him MSFT is like a sprinter with an open fracture in a shin. And AAPL just keeps pushing new products.
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MW: best