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I want to see a study of how iPhone sales are going post 3G launch. Also, I want to know how many people are holding off purchase until 2 yr. contracts with other carriers expire.

I want a crystal ball as well...

Off-topic post of the day:
What a great name--"Prince McLean"!!!
It can't be real, or is it?

Apple will sell between of 10 and 13 million iPhones this quarter and between 40 and 50 million iPhones in calendar year 2009.
Apple will sell (free and paid) the billionth application before the end of this year, not in calendar year 2009 as most people predict.
In five years Apple will be bigger than Microsoft unless Microsoft copies Apple’s business model: ‘the whole widget’!

Microsoft can't copy "the whole widget": they don't have enough copy machines.

Oct 27, 08 - 08:52 am Comment from: Cubert

@Jake,
It's real. He's the Hamburgler's cousin from the old McDonald's commercials.

Three fourths?

In English, is that the same as three quarters?

Oct 27, 08 - 09:08 am Comment from: jarrettdailynews

@ CourtJester,

Good queation, but actually that is quarters with a Q, and fourths is with an F. As you can see, quite different.

@jake

prince mclean is dan's pen name for appleinsider.

http://www.roughlydrafted.com/

that is his site.

"While Microsoft executives like to talk about Apple as an insignificant company with less than 5% of the worldwide market"...

Also, Dell and HP sells a lot more computer than apple does, but apple has a lot more profit from its third place that Dell (#1) and HP (#2).

Oct 27, 08 - 09:39 am Comment from: DogGone

If Apple sell 10-13M iPhones this quarter then they could earn up to $10B with them alone. That would be staggering.

I expect at least 5M. The initial sales rush is over for the first set of countries so that effect is gone. We have the Xmas effect but it will be hard to buy for someone else this time since you have to sign up straightaway.

I believe Apple intentionally let the cat out of the bag with the earning conference. By disclosing the true iPhone revenue and numbers we now have a good estimate for the price the mobiles pay for each unit (~$650). He also gave away the profit margin too. Jobs intervention in the conference call was designed to let people know a bit more about the business without making it a normal occurrence.

Oct 27, 08 - 09:40 am Comment from: Davidlow

I use OS X, but I also have Windoze installed on the same machine even though I hardly ever use it. When it comes to market share, am I in the Apple column or the Microsoft column or both? A lot of computer users have this same mixed setup.

I have a feeling that Apple counts hardware and Microsoft counts software, which not only puts me in both columns but also makes my single computer appear as if it were two computers. But the reality is I have one computer and it's a Mac.

Pretending that a hardware company and a software company are in the same market only works if the two products don't work together, but of course in this case they do. In fact, OS X runs better on a Mac than on a your-label-here box.

Oct 27, 08 - 10:02 am Comment from: Cubert

@Peruchito,

I like my answer better.

This is very misleading. Microsoft is also using GAAP accounting on several of their products making this analysis not even apples vs. bananas but closer to apples vs. bikes.
Not worth the time it takes to read.

This is bullcrap...

*everyone* knows that Micro-member has sold over 70 quintillion copies of Vista since its release!

It's *true*... seriously...

It's not MS' fault if no one actually *uses* it...

Oct 27, 08 - 11:52 am Comment from: Buster

'In English, is that the same as three quarters?'....

No....three fourths does not equal 75 cents.

The people who think the comparison is not apples to apples, because MS also uses GAAP accounting and has recurring subscription sales, don't really understand the situation.

The problem Apple is addressing is the TRANSITION time when GAAP does not approximate non-GAAP. This occurs in the period when you go from no deferred sales, to having deferred sales. After, the transition, in about 8 quarters, the GAAP numbers will look alot like the non-GAAP ones. The difference is the GAAP numbers apply a smoothing effect on sales, as they average over 2 years.

Even if MS uses GAAP and has subscription revenues, they have already gotten past the transition period. There's no significant difference between MS's GAAP and non-GAAP numbers.

So, the comparison is valid.

It doesn't really mean much. Apple has a lot of room to grow. Microsoft doesn't. Unless Microsoft comes up with new products in new to them markets, which they try and fail regularly, they can't grow by more than 10% at the most.

GAAP is doing just what it is intended to do. It is smoothing the transition. Apple's 3rd quarter should have looked much worse than it was due to the lack of iPhones to sell. GAAP made the drop in revenue much less dramatic, just like it made the most recent quarter look much less dramatic.

As KenC pointed out, the non-GAAP numbers give you some idea what Apple's GAAP revenues might look like in another 4 to 8 quarters. Although I think that they are a bit optimistic as they do not account for the pent up demand from the previous quarter before the iPhone 3G launch. If you make a conservative assumption that the growth has been linear and subtract out the estimated pent up demand, you end up reducing the EPS by approximately $0.32. That makes the revenue growth only 58 percent, which is still 6.5 times better than Microsoft.

Disclaimer: I am too poor to own any Apple stock.

It gets even better, see here. M$ doesn't even grow over time, it's sinking like a lead pickle on a pile of crap.

Makes you wonder why anyone would vote for Obama. McCain is the only reasonable one. Check him out here totally taking Obama down.