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Mon, Sep 08, 2008 - 12:02 AM EDT  —  AAPL: 160.18 (-1.04, -0.65%)  |  NASDAQ: 2255.88 (-3.16, -0.14%)

Apple’s massive iPhone 2.0 rollout: 42 countries, 575 million potential customers - and counting
Friday, May 16, 2008 - 05:45 PM EDT

"Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster summarized the flood of recent iPhone deals in a note to clients on Friday," Philip Elmer-DeWitt blogs for Fortune.

The key numbers in his report:
• 46 carriers announced to date (up from 6 currently)
• 42 countries covered (up from 6)
• 575 million total available market (up from 153 million)

Elmer-DeWitt reports, "The recent announcements give Munster “increased confidence” that Apple will meet his published sales target of 12.9 million iPhones in calendar year 2008. Well they should, since 3% of 575 million is 17.25 million iPhones. For 2009, Munster is sticking with his estimate of 45 million iPhones — a target that represents the high end among mainstream Apple analysts."

Full article here.

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Reader Feedback: ( = registered)

May 16, 08 - 05:52 pm Comment from: ChrissyOne

Hazzah!

May 16, 08 - 05:56 pm Comment from: iWill

Think Locally - Act Globally.

May 16, 08 - 06:00 pm Comment from: Keith Moon

AAPL going to $500.00 !!!

May 16, 08 - 06:05 pm Comment from: Largo von Busenhalter

Well if the sales ratio for those added populations is the same as in Germany (100,000 iphones for 82,000,000 population) then Apple will sell about 500,000 more phones in the next 6 months or so....

May 16, 08 - 06:07 pm Comment from: Lord Byron

Where's the idiots that said Apple will never hit 10 million by end of '08?

They would like you to believe that the current iphone and 2 countries would be all apple was working with. Could they not see that a new one was coming along with adding more countries? how stupid do you have to be to think like they did?

May 16, 08 - 06:08 pm Comment from: dave

Rogers in Canada should count as -1, given how ridiculous their data plans are. Yes, even their idiotic 'limited' web surfing plan.

May 16, 08 - 06:12 pm Comment from: 84mac

Its not the total population Munster reports. Note that in India alone the population is 1 billion and Munster's total customer base is 575 million. So the number is 100,000 out of Germany's total customers, a lot less an 82 million. And don't forget 3G.

May 16, 08 - 06:21 pm Comment from: Spark

@ Largo,
It's not surprising that the original 2G iPhone is selling poorly in Germany; as a cell phone it is very antiquated by European standards. What's surprising to me is that Apple was able to sell 100,000 iPhones DESPITE being 2G technology. I don't think you can apply sales adoption of the first gen iPhones to what can be expected when the gen 2 iPhones, with 2.0 software AND the SDK application development. It is easy to expect a much higher adoption rate all over Europe.

May 16, 08 - 06:40 pm Comment from: Register or Login

Keith Moon is dead, hope that's not a premonition.

May 16, 08 - 06:44 pm Comment from: Wish I Was Here

Obviously, the last 11 months has seen Apple experimenting and learning about what it means to be in the mobile 'phone' business. From the time I watched the iPhone unveiling a year and a half ago, I knew that I had seen mobile device future. I DON'T believe that the Nokia, RIM and the others will just roll over, nor do I want them to. However, I DO believe that the next 6 months will really see Apple catapult to an undeniable lead in the smartphone market. Like I said a few days ago, once they get deals in place for China and Japan, they'll probably sell them as fast as they can make them, for a while anyway.

May 16, 08 - 06:51 pm Comment from: currently unavailable

Now if Apple had iPhones in stock, they'd really be making sales. raspberry

May 16, 08 - 06:58 pm Comment from: ChrisM

Aren't these the same "analysts" who get verbally bludgeoned on MDN every time they say something negative about Apple?

May 16, 08 - 07:04 pm Comment from: Journo

ChrisM,

No.

Please show us all where MDN has ever "verbally bludgeoned" Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster.

We'll wait...

May 16, 08 - 07:39 pm Comment from: Olmecmystic

Apple's gonna sell 20 million iPhones in '08. I know Steve said 10 million, but Apple always sets numbers that they KNOW they can blow right through.

What's new for Macworld '09? I say quad-core iMacs, etc. By the time this next six months unfolds, the "analysts" will never doubt Apple again.

We've still got the back-to-school season coming up AND the holiday season; are you kidding me?

Peace.
Olmecmystic wink

May 16, 08 - 07:39 pm Comment from: RC

Umm no, Gene Munster is the only analyst that has a brain, therefore he has never been bludgeoned on this website.

May 16, 08 - 07:59 pm Comment from: Nokia FTW

Nokia will totally own the market by next year with they they bring out the 'N196b slide-zero', thingy. Coz it runs BimbosMobile

May 16, 08 - 08:14 pm Comment from: Anders

@ChrisM
@Journo

I confirm, MDN has never verbally bludgeoned Piper Jaffray analyst Gene "2 million AppleTVs in 2007, 4 million AppleTVs in 2008" Munster. Because he's a genious with a Full HD crystal ball.

Piper Jaffray expects 2 million Apple TV units to be sold in 2007
http://www.macdailynews.com/index.php/weblog/comments/12982/

May 16, 08 - 08:26 pm Comment from: Macromancer

"Aren't these the same "analysts" who get verbally bludgeoned on MDN every time they say something negative about Apple?"

Usually MDN is quick to bludgeon any analyst or reporter that gets their facts wrong. Besides, you must realize by now, this is not an impartial website. It's a site about Mac news for Mac fans. If you want impartiality, you are looking in the wrong place.

May 16, 08 - 08:51 pm Comment from: rwr

Anyone even a bit concerned that part of Apple's ability to keep quality high is linked to demand being below a certain threshold?

Here's my thinking. Corporations are basically amoral, neither good nor evil, rather its the people who comprise them that make them tilt one way or another.

When you start to sell "too many" of something then you are tempted to shave a corner here or take tuck in quality there. Why, because that 82 cent savings is multiplied by 20 million units.

Here's one example. I have both the 20 and 24" aluminum iMacs and the screen quality on the 20 is just ok. The 24" is lovely. My bro-in-law has a white 20" and its screen looks as nice as my 24." Hmmm...what's up with that?

So what's this mean for iPhone? If the consistent rumors are true, then the nice heft and accompanied strength of the metal components are gone in lieu of more plastic. Given that plastic is antithetical to both the direction of Apple's brand (glass + aluminum) and its commitment to green, one can only assume that expected massive demand helps drive such decisions.

Oh well...I'll get off my soap box now. I just think Apple has done a great job making lovely products and would hate to see it fall victim to its own success.

May 16, 08 - 09:20 pm Comment from: MacDoc

APPL=$1000+ Come on and buy!!!!!!!!

May 16, 08 - 09:22 pm Comment from: MacDoc

I mean AAPL...sorry..but you know what I mean

May 16, 08 - 09:25 pm Comment from: BC Kelly

Remember this time a year ago ?

Well folks

Here we go, again

Something Wonderful is About to Happen wink


BC

May 16, 08 - 10:28 pm Comment from: Zune Tang®

Can you smell the fear coming out of Cupertino? I can. It smells like… like… the ZunePhone running Windows Mobile 7! If I were Crapple I too would scramble to line up as many carriers as possible because 97.5% market share can't be wrong.

The tantalizing prospect of running a small and nimble subset of Vista in the palm of your hand will be too good to pass up for any reasonable person. Mmmmmmmm, Zune with a touchscreen and Microsoft's awesome Live technologies packed into a communications device. You can use your points anywhere.

It's over, Apple.

Your potential. Our passion.™

May 16, 08 - 11:10 pm Comment from: Jubei

"Can you smell the fear coming out of Cupertino?"

All I can smell is Ballmer/RIM farting like crazy from nervousness with what Apple is doing. *furp*

May 17, 08 - 01:36 am Comment from: Mark

@Zune Tang

Falling off your game a bit. You forgot to include contradictory doublespeak that spreads FUD. Mention the seven years of Microsoft mobile experience, so their UI must be more mature than 1-year of Apple. Or how you can get cheaper WM phones, or WM phones with more (unusable) features, but conveniently don't mention you can't get both at the same time.

May 17, 08 - 02:20 am Comment from: ZuneTang®

The Fake® is indeed slipping somewhat, as below:

Quote:

Can you smell the fear coming out of Cupertino? I can. It smells like… like… the ZunePhone running Windows Mobile 7! If I were Crapple I too would scramble to line up as many carriers as possible because 97.5% market share can't be wrong.

The tantalizing prospect of running a small and nimble subset of Vista in the palm of your hand will be too good to pass up for any reasonable person. Mmmmmmmm, Zune with a touchscreen and Microsoft's awesome Live technologies packed into a communications device. You can use your points anywhere.

It's over, Apple.

End quote.

However, I totally agree with his basic premise, i.e., a ZunePhone running a version of Vista or Moblie 7 - yes, the fear is palpable in Cuperstinko... Micorsoft is a company that cares for its customers. Even we admit to a few glitches along the road, but they are here for us, and will be in future. Yes, Apple, it will be over sooner rather than later. MAC lemmings, you will be welcome back into the fold of Windows users when Apple fails, as it is certain to do. Come back to a real man's computer, Windows.

Your potential. Our passion.™

May 17, 08 - 03:01 am Comment from: TheMyth

Ohh gee thanks Steve, one year from launch date and the iPhone is still not available in my country, how long will I have to wait for it?

This is real customer service at it's best - NOT!

May 17, 08 - 06:15 am Comment from: TheMyth's Vestigial Brain

"Ohh gee thanks Steve, one year from launch date and the iPhone is still not available in my country, how long will I have to wait for it?"

Because it's entirely Apple's fault and it has nothing to do with international politics, regulations, technical obstacles, tariffs and thousands of other possible technicalities outside of Apple's control?

Think before you spew.

May 17, 08 - 06:57 am Comment from: TheMyth

No such "regulations" prevents the launch of the iPhone here in Sweden, Apple just has'nt been able to extract enough money from any carrier here, nor does Apple think this is a primary market.

It all boils down to greed when Apple is not willing to sell an unlocked phone as is.

So no restrictions and I still cant purchase my iPhone..I have waited almost a year now, bad..VERY bad customer service IMHO, greed before customers hmpf!

May 17, 08 - 09:12 am Comment from: R

Apple doesn't sell to me. They are greedy.
Apple wants to sell in my country but hasn't made a deal yet. They are greedy.

Apple is clear about their intentions to sell unlocked phones. They are greedy.

I have been waiting long than I want to. Apple is greedy.
I use the term customer service to describe this situation, though I am not yet a customer. Apple is greedy.

Apple has also not yet sold me that headless Mac, acne cream, or Apple branded pie-tins. Apple is greedy! C'mon Apple!

May 17, 08 - 09:14 am Comment from: Used Apple Stock Salesman

"Umm no, Gene Munster is the only analyst that has a brain, therefore he has never been bludgeoned on this website."

Gene Munster has never said anything bad about Apple until after it's happened, that's why. That kind of "analysis" is just as useless as somebody predicting bad things that don't happen. Gene's lips are so firmly sealed around Steve's pecker that you can't take anything useful from anything he says.

May 17, 08 - 10:05 am Comment from: bildad

@One guy form Finland
After watching the Again and Again video done on the Mac watch the XP version. Hilarious.

May 17, 08 - 02:05 pm Comment from: Roberto

Keith Moon: "AAPL going to $500.00 !!!"

Dr Evil replies: "Why should AAPL go to five hundred when it could go to.... five trillion?!?"

May 18, 08 - 03:45 pm Comment from: Mad Mac Maniac

Sorry

The iPhone 2 better be a HELL of a lot better than iPhone 1.0 for it to compete successfully with the rapid new phone devices appearing on the market.

1: Open carrier
2: GPS
3: larger screen
4: real keyboard
5: user battery replacement
6: lower price
7: better software
8: security
9: much larger storage

May 18, 08 - 03:46 pm Comment from: Mad Mac Maniac

For instance, how about a word processing software with email/fax capability?

just to mention something...

May 18, 08 - 05:12 pm Comment from: MCCFR

In the new multi-carrier world of iPhone 2.0, be prepared for Visual Voicemail and other iPhone genius to be tied to a .Mac membership.

Of course, it'll be sold as a brand-new concept in online services: namely, the first time unified messaging (e-mail, voice, fax, etc.) have been made available in an online software as a service model, but the agenda will be to prop up Apple's network operator commission margins (not that I have an issue with it in any way).

One of the advantages of going down this route is that Apple will be able to roll out new enhancements to voicemail and other services globally at its discretion. In addition, your voicemail will stay with you no matter which carrier you are attached to - if you migrate from Optus to Vodafone or Telefonica to Orange, it won't matter.

With all the other benefits, you'll also be able to access your unified messaging from your Macintosh or <shudder>WinDell PC</shudder>! Macintosh users will also probably get the benefit of a 10GB+ file storage subsystem that will be accessible from iPhone as well as the ability to back up over the air.

May 18, 08 - 06:57 pm Comment from: Predrag

to Mad Mac Maniac:

<div>..."Sorry

The iPhone 2 better be a HELL of a lot better than iPhone 1.0 for it to compete successfully with the rapid new phone devices appearing on the market.

1: Open carrier
2: GPS
3: larger screen
4: real keyboard
5: user battery replacement
6: lower price
7: better software
8: security
9: much larger storage"</div>

The statement above would make sense if the present iPhone had miserably failed to gain traction. Since it hasn't, the statement represents personal desires of exactly one person. To begin with, Nos. 1 and 7 seem to be coming in v. 2 (not that the lack of each posed any barrier to the existing one). Battery has been discussed to death here, but I'll say it again; nobody on these boards (or anywhere else) knows anyone who has ever bought an additional battery for their ordinary cellphone to swap them when drained. Nobody. Our Mr. Mad Mac Maniac is one of the the first people I've heard of to (claim to) do this. Real keyboard? You need to get yourself a Blackberry; they have real keyboards. iPhone will NEVER (let me rephrase that: NEVER) have more than one single physical button. You seem to be missing the point here. Lower price? They seem to have found the sweet spot where they're flying off the shelves without people brawling over them. $400 is an excellent price. It's possible for it to go down eventually, but for now, there's no need. If you can't afford it, there are several options: a paper route seems quite popular among your generation; a gig at McD, or Dunkin' Donuts for a while will also pay for one. Once you get a real job with a real, decent paycheque, price won't be that high anymore. Larger storage (much larger storage)? I have yet to see a competitor with larger storage (in the same price range). As we all know, memory pricing is coming down. Therefore, over time, you'll get your wish, depending on how (un)realistic it is.

Feel free to shop around if you don't think iPhone is competitive.

May 19, 08 - 07:15 am Comment from: Hanz und Franz

@84mac who sez: "So the number is 100,000 out of Germany's total customers, a lot less an 82 million. "

In Germany there are more cell phones in operation than the population. There are over 82,000,000 activated cell phones in operation in Germany.
So of the over 82 million cell phones in operation in Germany only 100,000 are iPhones.
Not good.

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