“Fasten your seat belts,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt blogs for Fortune.
“Although Apple should report better-than-expected quarterly earnings on Monday — it almost always does — its shares could be in for a bumpy ride on Wall Street,” Elmer-DeWitt writes.
“Apple’s stock price — having bungee-jumped from $200 in late December to below $120 in mid-March and then back up to $190 in mid-May — has been drifting lower ever since, despite the high-profile launch of a new iPhone and the expectation of sharply higher earnings,” Elmer-DeWitt reports.
“These days, even 18% earnings growth from Apple is unlikely to impress the Street. The company could report its best third fiscal quarter (our calendar Q2) yet and still lose market value,” Elmer-DeWitt reports. By most accounts, Q3 was a strong one for Apple. In a report to clients issued Friday morning, Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster saw good news in all three of its key divisions: [Mac, iPod, iPhone].”
“But Wall Street’s antennae are finely tuned for disappointment. Although Apple just had a record-breaking, made-for-TV product launch — with people still queuing up for the iPhone 3G a week after it went on sale — none of that produced much traction in Apple’s share price. Investors seemed to concentrate instead on the fact that Apple’s iPhone activation servers melted down, that most of their stores ran out of product and that the new MobileMe suite of Web services is a mess that the company still hasn’t cleaned up,” Elmer-DeWitt reports.
“Finally, there’s the matter of Apple’s guidance for its fourth quarter… how conservative? If it’s the usual 9% or 10% below expectations, it shouldn’t make much difference. Anything lower could damage the stock. And if {Apple] offers guidance that’s better than expected, who knows, the stock might actually go up,” Elmer-DeWitt reports.
More in the full article here.
Uh, oh!
wow, great analyst!
“it could go up! it could go down! it could hold!”
….at least it isn’t predicted to go sideways.
Think long.
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Makes no sense, look at all the positive information: Apple has a blowout quarter selling desktop Macs. Apple increases notebook orders by 20%. Max OSX gains in market share. Apple selling iPhones by the busload… Once again analysts will focus on the minute negatives and that drives down the stock price.
Shure, 18% earnings growth is unimpressive for WallSt, when Citi Bank announces 2.5 billion loss
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AAPL is now expected to do better than WS expectations. I would hate to see what happens if they come below…
Funny, I never heard a peep from Apple fanbois decrying Microsoft’s stock slipping.
I’m with “Not That Steve”
THINK LONG.. these idiots gotta write something.. what do they know? if they were so smart they wouldnt have to write their dribble for a living. Its always good to take financial advice from these EX-SPURTS.. NOT..
I hope it goes down.. I waiting to buy more.. sell everybody..sell..drop the price..I dont care..I’m buying more..
Apple Insider post Apple’s weaknesses,
http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/08/07/17/apples_gross_margin_may_be_biggest_swing_factor_next_week.html
Yes, fanbois, there is a more intelligent community outside the fantasy world that you inhabit.
What you’ve got is a bunch of emotional investors buying and selling on a bit of news or what they see the price of the stock doing on a minute by minute basis. Fundamentals for AAPL are strong quarter to quarter, but the market’s not being driven by those who know a stinking thing about fundamentals.
I lost my shirt on AAPL in 1st and 2nd quarters of 2008 and I shall not be bitten in the arse again with the volatile emotion-driven trading found in this particular stock.
Love the products and the company though. I’m a mac man all the way.
Their stock price has been sitting right near 175, not “drifting lower”.
Anyone who does their homework will either sit or buy.
bleu dreem,
… and next month?
… and the month after?
…. and next quarter?
Oh, Great Prophet of Proctology, what does the great orifice of Apple wisdom speak of?
Unfortunately, Apple is now a target of so called investors and their partner-in-crime anal-ysts, and they will continue to manipulate AAPL. This is Street all right, Wall Street Mafia.
They’re billions in the black, I wouldn’t worry about their stock price. I might buy some if I have some spare cash when it is low again.
Look, it is going to the same thing is always is: Apple is going to announce better than expected numbers/sales/earnings and offer conservative guidance. Analysts will pick through the numbers and find something they don’t like. The stock will go down. Oh, well…
If you own Apple stock, you have to take the long view these days. While the market has been crashing, Apple is up so far this year and has been floating around the same price for a couple months. That is pretty good given the macro conditions.
As for this article, nothing to see here. Move along…
“Unfortunately, Apple is now a target of so called investors and their partner-in-crime anal-ysts, and they will continue to manipulate AAPL. This is Street all right, Wall Street Mafia.”
Apple’s biggest mistake – going public! Steve should by back all stock, dissolve the board, and assume 100% control.
Happy now?
These are all supposedly bad things:
– Apple sells so many iPhones they run out.
– Apple sells so many iPhones and Apps that servers are crushed are under the weight.
– Apple blows away their guidance and the Street’s expectations for the quarter.
– Apple sets new records (again) for Mac sales.
– Apple continues to increase its revenue by double-digit points for the ??th straight quarter (I don’t know how many quarters it’s been, but I bet you’d have to go back to 2004 or 2005).
– Great reviews on its products, and lots of talk about a brand new platform (which suggests sustainable growth).
My God, if any other company did all that I bet their stock price would nudge upwards at the very least. The way I see it, though, even if my Apple stock goes down a little bit, it’s still beating the overall market right now which continues to tank.
Owning Apple today might not be making me money, but it’s not bleeding nearly as fast as the rest of the market. Maybe things are so bad that a 5 percent drop in stock price is fantastic performance.
The company could report its best third fiscal quarter (our calendar Q2) yet and still lose market value,” Elmer-DeWitt reports.
This whole “the Street” thing is drifting into Alice in Wonderland territory. The current system/mindset must be profoundly broken in order to create results like these. It makes no sense. Doesn’t anybody on Wall Street see that???
>blue Dream wrote: Their stock price has been sitting right near 175, not “drifting lower”. [Jul 18, 08 – 01:20 pm]
Taken from MDN’s ticker at the top of the page.
Fri, Jul 18, 2008 – 01:37 PM EDT — AAPL: 166.38 (-5.43, -3.16%)
There are the reasonable Apple fans, and then there’s your type: the fanboy who blindly posts based out of emotion and fantasy.
Too bad the latter is the more vocal of the two.
Apple sells so many iPhones they run out.
Apple unprepared.
Apple sells so many iPhones and Apps that servers are crushed are under the weight.
Apple, again, unprepared.
Apple blows away their guidance and the Street’s expectations for the quarter.
Apple blows – what more can be said?
Apple sets new records (again) for Mac sales.
What records? Where are the data? No one knows! Another fantasy.
Apple continues to increase its revenue by double-digit points for the ??th straight quarter (I don’t know how many quarters it’s been, but I bet you’d have to go back to 2004 or 2005).
“I don’t know.” Hmm. that’s obvious.
Great reviews on its products, and lots of talk about a brand new platform (which suggests sustainable growth).
Sycophantic fanboi ramblings don’t count.
Summary: “Apple blows, that’s all I know.”
What kind of horsesh** is this ? It may go up, it may go down, what ? Is this the best that a so-called ” analyst ” can come up with ?
Selling out of a new product is a good sign, not a bad one.
Opening up retail stores in China, a new untapped market for Apple is a positive sign. Revenue and unit sales growth is also a wonderful sign. The fact that Apple shares rebounded as quickly as they did ,compared to the market in general, is also a good sign.
Wall Street needs to pull their heads out of their rectums. NOW !
Yawn… another ‘insightful’ analyst spewing garbage…. yawn.
Answer this analyst – for how many tech products/companies these days do you see paying customers camped out on the street for waiting to buy?
Doh. You’re about as relevant as…. [insert appropriate comment here]
I find highly amusing all the anti-Apple folks who keep going on about “Apple fanboys”. Dare I venture to suggest that we have perhaps a few “Microsoft fanboys” projecting their own illogical devotion to their company of choice onto others?
There are a lot of normal, average, reasonable people who aren’t “fanboys” of *any* side, who are choosing to buy Macs. Larger and larger numbers of them, in fact, according to recent reports. This trend is not going away anytime soon, and makes the repeated “Apple fanboy” comments come across as a bit desperate.
Just read Wu’s comments. The man is fixated on Apples profit margin. If it changes 1/2 percent the wrong way, He is for dumping the stock.
The man just DOES NOT GET IT. His “analysis” of Apple makes you think he is talking about Dell. ????????? WTF
He is looking at Apple screwing everyone to make extra pennys of profit and if they do not, …… well that is bad.
The man is a moron, or else he has a bunch of cash and wants to drive Apple stock down so he can make more. Don’t know which. 🙁
en
@Gabriel,
“There are a lot of normal, average, reasonable people who aren’t “fanboys” of *any* side” That is true. But there are lots of people that bitch about every little thing that Apple does that they do not like as if the end of the world would happen. 🙁
When someone says that they do not like Apple, I have to wonder what part of Apple the company that they do not like:
The buildings,
The lawns,
The location,
The employees,
the contracts signed by the legal entity,
—– Just what about Apple the company do they not like?????
Maybe its the idea of Apple. That a group of people could band together and make “insanely great” products that put the customer first is to me, a great thing but nothing to hate.
If you want to hate, go see the Microsoft people. They hate but have learned to just wait it out for things to get better. And they will, any time in the next 5-7 years. LOL
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PS, when my Apple computer does not run its applications correctly, I get upset. When my PC does not run its applications correctly, I get upset. The second happens a whole lot more than the first. …… . . . . . . . Just a thought.
en
What’s idiotic is that Apple is one of many companies just printing cash every quarter–along with M$, Google, IBM, Intel, et al,–and yet the Street rewards all of these companies with stock price drops if they don’t meet some retarded quarterly expectation. It’s completely counterintuitive. What exactly do they need to put these stocks in their proper perspective and value?
Frontal lobotomies, anyone?
pajhjadjx xppojfg lzkckjghokjsok zckjhkjs,
Unfortunately for you, you’re not a member of that community.
@: sdv aodf lzXFI lkxxk11
Summary: “Apple blows, that’s all I know.”
Yup…you are right….that is all you know…which ain’t much laddie!
Concerning the comment that “running out of stock” was unprepared: It is generally considered better planning in retail sales to run somewhat short of inventory rather than overstocked. It maximizes your profits.
In this case, there was a significant amount of pent-up demand. It makes little sense to construct your supply line to meet the pent-up demand rather than the sustained demand that you expect to achieve.
OTOH, these “analysts” are typical reporters. There is nothing to be gained by reporting accurately. If you report the “worst” case and accidently happen to match reality, you win. If you miss, everyone ignores you, but fails to remember how often you missed. It is unfortunate that with the arrival of electronic trading, there has arisen a significant number of “day traders,” whose actions have generated a significant volatility and who listen to these rumor mongers.
If a share doesn’t go down sometimes… how do you want people to make big gains when it rises?
Thats the name of the game: ups AND downs makes the money!
@pajhjadjx xppojfg lzkckjghokjsok zckjhkjs
Thanks for that link. Im assuming you just read the headline and not the whole article – Last sentence:” Wu reiterated his Buy rating and $220 price target on shares of the Mac and iPhone maker”
Buster,
Don’t be too hard on ‘sdv aodf lzXFI lkxxk11’.
He tries, he really does.
I mean, look at all the trouble he went to thinking up his nifty moniker. He probably spent days working on that.
these analysts are morons! they have no clue what they are talking about.
1. Some idiot troll is active today. In a sick way, it’s fun watching him make a fool of himself with desperate attempts at FUD. Note to Mr. troll: we’ve seen your kind before. You’ll keep coming back for a while, and then you’ll get bored and move on. Your kind always do. It’s not the first time we’ve been entertained by your kind here. Oh, and by the way: for the past several years, your beloved Microsoft has returned its investors an appreciation growth of two (2) percent. Deal with it.
2. Remember that when Apple announces its numbers, that sales of the new iPhone WILL NOT be factored into the past quarter. Instead, the numbers Apple will announce precede the iPhone 3G launch. The company will likely announce initial sales to appease Wall Street.
3. A company’s stock price should always reflect its earnings. To me, that’s how Wall Street should judge Apple. But they won’t. Instead, Wall Street will likely drive down Apple’s stock price based on the company either not hitting some ridiculous “whisper number” or even worse, that the company’s forward guidance might disappoint the stock price snorting analysts. Expect the typical apocalyptic articles to follow for a few days. Ignore them.
4. Remember the wise words of Warren Buffet: “Be fearful when others are greedy. And be greedy when others are fearful.” If you are a long-term investor like I am, you don’t let events like what I noted in #3 above to rattle you. What matters to smart investors is that Apple continues to see growing earnings, and consistently meets or beats its earnings targets. If you step back and watch these, the stock price will eventually track earnings. It always does. You might have to wait a bit, but eventually, the stock will reflect earnings growth. So be patient.
5. If you bought Apple stock at its 1997 low, you can only smile. I do. But the company’s growth will eventually be its biggest challenge, as the law of large numbers kicks in. That is partially what is hampering a company like Microsoft, and Warren Buffet would tell you that this could even hold back an incredible success like Berkshire Hathaway. There’s still a long way to go yet. And as long as Apple continues to innovate and execute, and create new markets, I think that eventually, we’ll all be rewarded.
So filter out the BS and keep an eye on earnings. If you do, you’ll be able to shrug your shoulders at any of the BS you read next week.
@ To all of the above
This troll has posted under “afib”, “ha ha ha”, “he he he”, and other monikers here for a while. It’s easy to spot his insults and use of “fanbois” to illicit a response. Childish.
Re: “1. Some idiot troll is active today.”
It’s Afib or Ha,ha or He, he, or Ho, ho and a few other troll handles. Now he’s just rolling his butt cheeks across the keyboard.
The surly, insulting attitude, the borderline illiteracy and the cowardly bullying are his trademarks (along with the Avril Lavigne style usage of “fanboi”).
He’s only here to pick a fight with you. That’s what gets him off.
He’s only here to pick a fight with you. That’s what gets him off.”
That’s really sad. When I was young I got off to Playboy.
I guess we have the internet to thank for this.
Is it me or has Afib had a stroke?
Note: Manipulation breeds profits for some!
Generally at the expense of Apple and it’s stockholders…. and yes it’s been awhile sence this has happened! So I guess someone on Wall Street thinks it time to make a few bucks and feels they can get away with it once again!
Besides after late January, no one on Wall Street are going to have the balls to try… with bushism flying out the door around that time!
Have fun gues while you can…
“Is it me or has Afib had a stroke?”
Or a few too many pints. The cries for attention on nearly every thread are getting more and more sad. Just as surly as ever, but sad.
They have to protect their Mutual Fund Microsoft stock holdings!
Apple has beat the street for how many quarters already. So what’s the beef? They are taking market share away at a record pace. Before the street just wanted to see the market share go up a little. Well that’s changing into market share that is rising really fast. The street doesn’t know what it wants and always expects to much. This is supposed to be a down economy, so if Apple does beat the street they should be over joyed, elated, totally satisfied that Apple could be doing so well in a down economy. Especially when everyone still has that mind set that Apple computers are expensive. Baloney!! Apple has momentum, money in the bank, 24 Billion plus in cash, and award winning products. Come on, how can the street be so DUMB!!
So Apple closed down today by $6.66
Here is wisdom. Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast: for it is the number of a man; and his number is Six hundred threescore and six.
The problem is the expectation of growth is priced into the stock. The price already assumes Apple will grow at very high rates.
So it’s not whether Apple performs well by some external measure. It’s whether Apple performs better or worse then the growth numbers already assumed and priced in.
“Thanks for that link. Im assuming you just read the headline and not the whole article – Last sentence:” Wu reiterated his Buy rating and $220 price target on shares of the Mac and iPhone maker”
One fanboi’s opinion does not prevail over the combined wisdom of many.
Why would you ever imagine that I needed your approval?
We are approaching a recession – Apple will suffer along with everyone else. Get over it mac fanboys.
As the run on Bear Stearns demonstrated, the financial markets have a deep, ugly, dark side. And analysts are their beotches.
Gen. George Custer, “It’s just a handful of injuns, boys.”
“Apple will suffer along with everyone else. “
Apple will suffer worse, because as a higher end consumer brand they are much more subject to people deferring spending or buying something cheaper that does the same job.
“or buying something cheaper that does the same job.”
I’ve had to deal with some of those $300 Dells and HPs, and I guarantee you, they do not do the same job as a Mac. I know they profess to, but in reality most are a nightmare.
But I agree, people will buy the cheap stuff. Sometimes from a lack of funds, but often simply from ignorance.
The only thing cheaper that does the same job is a cheaper Apple.
“The only thing cheaper that does the same job is a cheaper Apple.”
Untrue, for the majority of the population who want to check email and browse the web, any machine will do. And when $$ are tight, people do move to the cheaper substitutes rather than the more expensive products they might have brought in better times.
“when $$ are tight”
That’s for sure. Prices rising on fuel, food and everything else. My natural gas supplier says it will go up 50% this winter.
My income sure as hell isn’t rising to compensate for all of this. But, I guess I’m just another American whiner. At least our devoted public servants in D.C. won’t have to go without. That makes me feel better.
It could get to the point where ANY computer, let alone a Mac, is considered a luxury for many people. They would give that up before their cable TV.
“when $$ are tight”
When that happens which is very often as a student I’ll just keep using my mac forget the cheep stuff its not worth investing even that much money.
sdv aodf lzXFI lkxxk11 is a gay teenage transexual who like farm animals, ignore it
“When that happens which is very often as a student I’ll just keep using my mac forget the cheep stuff its not worth investing even that much money.”
Which has the same effect, if you’re buying something cheaper or deferring a purchase waiting to afford a new Mac, there’s still NO SALE for Apple.
“The Street” All those analysts should be thrown in the street!