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Sheesh, everybody decides to sell and take their profits and THIS is what happens !

Come back, APPLE !

Last Chance.

Take your profit.

Wait until the median housing prices have stabilized for a few to several months and start heading upward then start buying longterm stocks again.

We are going to see a lot more "adjustment" in the housing market.

With bubbles, what goes up, must come down. That's why it's called a bubble.

Unfortunatly if the credit markets are bad, so does economic growth and people don't buy much, especially non-essentials.

G. Bush had little impact on this coming recession, it was brought on by the Fed reversing the rate of inflation so long that it was in danger of going into deflation.

So the Feds gave cheap money to the banks, which loaned it to everyone, which created the real estate bubble, which created rapid economic growth and got the US economy back on a increasing inflationary trend.

So now comes the reccession, which is better than deflation. Where you have to pay banks to hold your money as it increases in value and prices of goods fall.

Imagine that?

Keyword: Macro Economics

Are you saying I should I sell my AAPL today?

Thanks for your perspective.

Apple doesn't need the market to grow in order for sales to accelerate and market share to increase. We're taking away sales from Windows PCs.

The money is made on the buy. It is trading at a 20% discount. Poor StockTrader wanted to be a professor when he grew up, but ended up just being a whiner.

The shares of this company will trade cyclically because of the very nature of their market and their role within that market.

Understand the cycle, dismiss the whine, enjoy the money.

"G. Bush had little impact on this coming recession, it was brought on by the Fed reversing the rate of inflation so long that it was in danger of going into deflation"

Agreed. The Fed has a huge impact but also look at the greed of the housing lenders for their haphazzard lending policies that led us into this credit crunch we are in.

I'm not convinced we've seen the end of this aapl dip, even looking short term. In August, I believe it was, when aapl dipped from 150 to 113, that was pretty irrational, but reality nonetheless.

There was a real estate bubble in Hawaii about 10-15 or so more years ago.

It was brought on by the US government asking the Japanese government to increase the value of their currency to match the US (the reason I guess was to thwart Communism in Asia?)

Anyway it created a flush of money for the Japanese which then took a liking to buying Hawaii and California real estate.

A real estate bubble occured in Hawaii, Japanese were riding around in limos and pointing to properties they wanted. The demand went up and then so did prices. People flipped properties just like what happened here in the US over the last few years.

The Japanese even bought up Hawaii hotels and renovated for the Japanese tourist, who could spend $300 a day compared to only $200 a day the American tourist could spend.

When the Japanese government couldn't match the US currency, the Japanese economy blew out, taking the real estate bubble in Hawaii with it.

It also hurt the hotels, which basically shut out the American tourist with their measly $200 a day spending previously and no more $300 a day Japanese tourists.

In Hawaii, a lot of buisnesses went completely dead within a month. No customers nearly anywhere.

Lots of people were out of work. It wasn't pretty.

I can certainly imagine this on a national scale.

This is why I warn you. I could be wrong like anyone, but it doesn't hurt to be safe for the next several months.

Don't bet the farm. Only gamble with what you can afford to lose.

I think it'll stay lowish until January 2008 since we we don't have any pre-announced Apple products and the rumoured tablet Mac is not exactly a world-changer. But I hope to be proven wrong and get my funny-money back.

"Agreed. The Fed has a huge impact but also look at the greed of the housing lenders for their haphazzard lending policies that led us into this credit crunch we are in."

Except it was the Federal government and sad-sack feel-good pukes like Hillary and Fat Teddy other Dems who years ago were actually encouraging (in other words, threatening) banks and other lenders to go and make risky loans to "underprivileged" and otherwise non-qualifying borrowers. You know, people that wouldn't ordinarily have qualified except for the government's pesky, left-leaning interference.

Our over-reaching, insidious Congress is as responsible for this sub-prime mess as anybody else, but are they standing up and taking any of the blame? NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!

And some people will actually end up voting for that skank for President . . .

Don't be irrational ... Apple is in great financial shape and the Xmas season will be a good one, maybe not a great one, for Apple.

Hang tight ... the stock will rebound as the economy bounces back from his sub-prime problem.

Stock Trader,

You said it all. I think the market had been inflated for awhile, but now with this housing (and oil) crises, I believe it's far from over. The retail season is upon us and it will tell a more definitive story. If this holiday season is as bad as they say, we have a long way to go before things hit rock bottom.

But given this is a forum dedicated to all things Apple, I will say this - although I don't believe Apple will be affected significantly by the economy in terms of sales (nanos will be flying off store shelves) it was clear when the stock hit $190 that it was a reaction, not a true stock price. The stock was overly inflated. I think it has the potential for over $200/share, just not now. Seems to go in hand with Apple NOT splitting the stock at this point - I think they realize the same thing. Maybe I'm off on that one but in the past Apple seemed to split every time it hit $100.

BTW, that Hawaii example you pointed out was brilliant. Funny how we haven't seen significant effects on the job market but I'm scared shitless about when it does hit. This is going to be one of the worst recessions in a long, long time.

Never, never put all of your eggs in one basket. Spread the risk among a portfolio of stocks. Yes, Apple has been exploding, but it doesn't last forever.

peace out
ferf

I believe the Fed had fucked it up here. Can't blame Georgy Boy, Congress or any of those stupid fucks. Greenspan was mostly a genius but I think he missed the boat on this one BIG TIME. The Fed dictates the rates charged to banks and they allowed this to happen.

My real question is how the fuck did our fabulous government, brilliant economists, banks and finance companies possibly think that when rates on these godforesaken ARMs adjusted that there would be no impact on the market? I live in an upper-middle-class neighborhood and people I have known for years are losing their homes everywhere around us. They were not all people with bad credit - they were people enticed by ARMs. Then salaries never increased and when rates adjusted, they were screwed. To me, all ARMs are subprime. Forget about the rates, credit scores, etc. - it's the adjustment to the monthly payments that are killing this market. Picture this - a family around the corner from us picked up and moved out and handed their keys to their lender and said, "You fucked us, so just take the damn thing".

Oh and @ Open Your Eyes,

Just to confirm - wasn't Congress controlled by the Republicans for all of those years the subprime market was building? Ypu betcha.

Funny how we haven't seen significant effects on the job market..

Holiday help.

After all retail businesses make half their total sales of the year during this time.

But come the new year...

And a elections season on top of that?

Remember, the stock market doesn't like uncertainty.

@ Open Your Eyes

When Thinking Fails, Blame A Clinton™

{this message brought to you by the Rush Limbaugh School of Not Actually Thinking®}

Except it was the Federal government and sad-sack feel-good pukes like Hillary and Fat Teddy other Dems who years ago were actually encouraging (in other words, threatening) banks and other lenders to go and make risky loans to "underprivileged" and otherwise non-qualifying borrowers. You know, people that wouldn't ordinarily have qualified except for the government's pesky, left-leaning interference.

@ Stock Trader
"Last Chance. Take your profit."

Pass The Savings On To Institutional Ownership! (which went up a percent today!)
Keep shaking the tree, boys, I need to buy more!

Greenspan was mostly a genius but I think he missed the boat on this one BIG TIME.

You do know he retired just before this all occured.

He knew what was going to happen and didn't want to ruin his reputation.

New monkeys running the Fed now, but at least they are listening how to reduce this recession.

I'm worried about a run on the banks like what occured on one in the UK recently.

Banks can and do fail, with all the sub-primes they gave out (Bank of America and CitiBank anyone?)

That's why I'm under $100,000 at each bank. Sure the FDIC pays up, but the Goverenment just can print up more money to pay you with, the purchasing power is lost. And they could take several years to pay it all back, there is no guarranty you'll get your full $100,000 value right away.

The Swiss and gold seem like safe bets right now.

Jerk Slutmaker wrote:

Oh and @ Open Your Eyes,

Just to confirm - wasn't Congress controlled by the Republicans for all of those years the subprime market was building? Ypu [sic]betcha.

"Control" is a little different from actual strong-arming, douchebag. The committees in question were all filled with old-school, "feel good, do nothing" liberal pantywaists. "Give money to these people over here who can't afford it in reality", WAAAHHHH! "I strongly suggest you increase your loan approval rates to middle-class Americans, Mr. Banker", WHINNNNEEEE!!

"But, Madam Congresswoman, if we do that then in a few years what are we supposed to do when these people start to default on all these loans?"

"Just do it. I've got to go back to my district and have something to show."

Screw the Future! (Which is what you'll be doing if you elect another uber-left wing fool as President.)

@ Open Your Eyes

Please cite your sources. This is very interesting.

Do I really sound that stupid? God, I'm so embarrassed.

and his happy fanboy slurs?

@ Open Your Eyes

Keep up the good work!!! Conservatives like you are wonderful for the Democratic party. Please, post messages like this everywhere you go. Especially when there are churchy people around. Or smart people.

"Control" is a little different from actual strong-arming, douchebag. The committees in question were all filled with old-school, "feel good, do nothing" liberal pantywaists. "Give money to these people over here who can't afford it in reality", WAAAHHHH! "I strongly suggest you increase your loan approval rates to middle-class Americans, Mr. Banker", WHINNNNEEEE!!

I've owned more AAPL in my 50+ years than any of you 12-year-olds ever will.

Oh and @ Open Your Eyes,

You are an ultra-conservative shithead no-brained douchebag. I consider myself privileged that I was just labeled a simple "douchebag".

Keep it up, and you will have to deal with Hillary in 2008. You really think the GOP has a chance? Are you HIGH? Or just a moron? Both, I think.

@ Stock Trader,

You do have a point about this coming out after Greenspan exited the building. He was smart enough to get out at the right time. But at the end of the day this did happen under his watch, right?

Look, the guy is a mastermind. But no one is infallible. And I certainly don't blame him for all of this. Heck, the lenders are the real criminals here. They have lots of commissioned sales guys that will sell their first born for a measly commission. That alone just drove everything. Sell, sell sell and get rich on those commissions.

Interesting and intelligent banter. I love it.

@ Shoe Man,

Even with the recent drops in Apple stock, I'd like to be in your shoes. Nice to see someone who believed in a company like Apple even with its peaks and valleys. I bow down to you. Oh, I am almost 50, but I do act like a 12 year old most of the time (at least that's what my wife tells me, he he he).

This economic activity is the result of FED action, which has no party loyality.

Mind Wide Shut wrote: Please cite your sources. This is very interesting.

Sure. Here you go -- and this is just to get you started:

"Nearly half of House Financial Services Committee members, including chairman Barney Frank, have received money from New Century Financial Corp., the subprime lender that recently collapsed. Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Chris Dodd, head of the Senate Banking Committee, have been some of the largest beneficiaries of the mortgage banking industry, whose dollars have provided a strong incentive for Congress to sit tight and hope the subprime bubble wouldn't burst.

Mortgage bankers gave 40 percent of their $6.6 million in contributions to Democrats in 2006, before the party gained power, and eleven of the top twenty recipients were Democrats, including the top recipient, Clinton, who took in $108,100. Senator Dodd joined Barney Frank in a vague call for legislation but added that he is "a strong advocate of subprime lending." New Century has given Dodd $15,000 since 2003, and Frank ranked ninth on the list of mortgage banking contributions, with $54,550 in 2006.

Congress now has a decision to make: Should those thousands of dollars be in their pockets, or in those of the millions losing their homes?"

Garrett Ordower, The Nation, "The Loan Shark Lobby"

- - - - -

"In other words, the House bill [Democrat Barney Frank's proposed legislation] would effectively give borrowers the ability to renegotiate the terms of their mortgage without penalty and without increasing the risk premium that they have to pay to get the loan.  Furthermore, it would require lenders to take extraordinary steps to verify each borrowers “ability to repay” — an amorphous concept to begin with and one that is hard to verify outside of relying upon the credit ratings and verifications of employment that every lender relies upon. Finally, the bill seems to extend liability for these actions to secondary holders of mortgage-backed securities; an idea which makes no sense whatsoever given that the secondary holders had no role in the original transaction.

The ultimate impact of legislation like this is easy to see. Credit, whether or mortgages or any other types of loan, <b>will be harder to get for people at the fringes of the economy. Some people may argue that this isn’t a bad thing, that it was loans to people like this that created the subprime mess to begin with. And they have a point.

But there’s where politics becomes involved. Today, the left complains because supposedly predatory lenders took advantage of people with bad credit by offering them the only loans they could qualify. Twenty years ago, they were complaining about redlining and alleging that lenders were discriminating against the poor and minorities by refusing to lend to them because they were bad credit risks.  If legislation like this passes and the credit markets dry up again, that’s exactly what we’ll be hearing ten yeasrs from now, if not sooner."

Doug Mataconis, The Liberty Papers, "How Not To Fix The Subprime Mortgage Crisis, Part II"


Jerk Slutmaker wrote: You are an ultra-conservative shithead no-brained douchebag. I consider myself privileged that I was just labeled a simple "douchebag".

Thanks, fool. Now get back to ninth grade Special Ed. class.

@ The Liberty Papers

Ah, Libertarian bloggers who love Ayn Rand. Just my kind of people.

@OYE

This is fun to read.

Are you actually trying to argue that incumbent Republicans, as the majority party for over a decade, with majority control of every committee and chairmanship, were somehow thwarted in their valiant efforts to avoid this crisis? You just quoted an article stating Dems received 40% of New Century's contributions. Who do you think received the other 60%? Must have been the Green Party.

And the "Liberty Papers" article makes what point exactly? That conservatives are fighting for fair lending practices for minorities in opposition to the dangerous legislation sponsored by well-known minority haters like Barney Frank and the Congressional Black Caucus? Your concern is touching.

The only persuasive argument you did (inadvertently) make was a strong case for public financing of elections.

Gasser, stop acting like your foul-smelling name. I especially love this part:

" . . . Republicans, as the majority party for over a decade . . ."

Don't be a (gassy) tool. When the foundations for this debacle were laid, it was at the feet (when they and other parts weren't getting sucked off by skanks under his desk) of the Clinton administration. As in, years ago. That's sometimes how long liberal societal creep takes to come out in the wash (so to speak -- another Lewinsky reference there).

Mind Wide Shut, you demonstrate true close-mindedness in your perfunctory dismissal of liberty. Go vote for more big government Democratic societal-engineering liberalism in next year's election. You deserve what you get . . . and your moniker suits you.

dinner bell rang when i got home from work. put in a 153 extended market buy. why was i not worried about a further slide? apple is not like any equity out there. people, including analysts and institutional managers don't understand its price behavior. apple's strengths are:

1) it is a global company and benefits from a weak dollar like proctor and gamble. it leverages its component costs by long term contracts and sells at a higher margin than competitors, so weak dollars are offset to some degree by enough margin to not sweat it. making insanely great products is not going to hurt them.

2) cache/brand is premium. behaves like coach more than samsonite. hard economic times do not affect its core customers as the bottom price feeders.

3) people actually want apple's products and they are on a global upswing in marketshare in whatever market they chose to be in. they are in the process of innovating new markets while stealing marketshare in established markets-like google in search.

4) apple's secretive mood leaves the bears doubting the next product will be a hit and the bears equally sure it will be a home run. how about a sub-laptop, gonzo ipod touch, movie rentals/appletv/in an imac at moscone center.

these all play together to make rapturous music. look for apple to beat estimates, beat competitors senseless and leave them clueless on what to do.

There are so many questions that my Anti-Randian heart would love to ask you, but it's late at night, so let me ask you just two: Have you read Greenspan's book yet?, and if you have, is there any correlation between your Libertarian theory of guilt and Greenspan's Objectivist comparison/appraisal of the last two administrations?

@ OYE,

Hey, Dickhead, do you know anything about arithmetic? Gasser may have a smelly name but he can count, you fucking right-wing slob! Who gives a shit who got contributions - and where did the other 60% go?

But the real question, which you and others in your dumbass camp always avoid, was who was running Congress when all of this happened? Hillary? Barney Frank? Chris Dodd? Oh yeah, that's who was in charge, right? Wrong, moron. It was the moronic Republicans that morons like you voted into office that controlled Congress, remember?

And I love when you quote "The Nation", a fucking rag that my dog uses to shit on. Those clowns are brilliant - at being morons.

I hate having to write shit like this on MDN, because this is a great Apple site. But it's crap like this that really burns my ass. So I am forced to tell it like it is.

Your President in 2008 will be Hillary. Face up to it.
The GOP blew it for backing an asshole like Bush. Face up to that.
There will be investigations into Bush and Cheney after their time is up. And there may be people going to prison as a result.

@ Jerk Slutmaker;

Newsflash, dipsh!t -- the surge is working.

You and your sycophantic, defeatist losers Pelosi, Reid and Hillary have no chance in 2008. No . . . friggin' . . . chance.

You're as dumb as your mother said you were.