MacDailyNews - Where Mac news comes first

May 05, 08 - 09:54 am Comment from: ericdano

God, to have this ass clown's job. I could do what he does, and better, for less money.

if Wu thinks Apple is a buy, then it's probably a good time to sell.

May 05, 08 - 09:54 am Comment from: Cubert

This certainly makes Shaw Wu look stupid, but in the past he has been pretty bullish on Apple and fairly close in his sales forecasts.

May 05, 08 - 09:56 am Comment from: Not Bill

"Oops! Lost in my own reality again. It seemed pretty real at the time."

Kudos for Wu!

Oh everyone makes mistakes.
Oh, yes they do
Your sister and your brother and your dad and mother too;
Big people, small people, matter of fact, all people!
Everyone makes mistakes, so why can't you?

May 05, 08 - 10:00 am Comment from: macoverdose_dot_com

if you know apple then its easy to predict whats coming around the corner... these guys are so consumed by the numbers game of wall street that they loose track of how things really work... MDN should be the only source of apple info investors look to...lol

AAPL had gone from $120 to $160 in 12 weeks. Wu was not irrational to suggest the shares were now priced at a point whereby the investor was likely to make better than market returns with other firms which had not yet rallied to the same degree as AAPL.

He didn't say dump it. He did say there were other places where you might make more.

The extension of the run up to $185 is interesting in that the typical dump of shares after the earnings report didn't occur. As a result, the shares have traded thinly since. Simple supply and demand has driven this run.

For Wu to step in with the upgrade, it is reasonable he sees tight supply in shares which are likely to continue to drive pricing compounding against the buzz of the new phone.

Those interested in measuring their genius against his are free to do so. The meeting happens most everyday on Wall St.

May 05, 08 - 10:13 am Comment from: Jubei

Why is it these ANALyst never get fired for being stupid?

May 05, 08 - 10:14 am Comment from: ron

Mr. Wu, what shall I do.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MdHtOTaN5ic

May 05, 08 - 10:24 am Comment from: Lazy European

So the guy made some decision he now considers a misjudgement.
So he corrects it.
Seems pretty sensible to me.

More sensible than the average Apple-analyst, let alone the average MDN-reader. Wu's OK.

Wu anticipated a post earnings dump so he downgraded but now after the results he can resume his pre-reporting condition. AAPL is a buy at 240, remember we were supposed to be here by now from December's perspective.

May 05, 08 - 10:25 am Comment from: iWill

Sounds all kinda "wu-wu" to me. . .

@Gwendo - your poem should be reprinted on the cover of the WSJ once a week. Hilarious commentary, Dr. Seuss style!

@Tom - astute observation. The market sold when Wu downgraded not so much on the strength of his analysis or reputation, but because he's been bullish for so long. I don't think he was wrong in his analysis on the downgrade at the time, but it's wrong now and he promptly corrected it.

Who was the other downgrade -- was it Morgan Keegan?

This clown cried wolf to drive down the price of Apple's stock so he could buy more knowing full well that Apple's stock would go up.

Maybe next time this clown cries wolf, the others ANALysts should ignore him as he talks through where the sun don't shine. There was no logical reason for his down rating on Apple, plain and simple.

May 05, 08 - 10:33 am Comment from: ElderNorm

So people that listed o Wu lost money on this deal??? I guess that makes him a good analyst? If he has said that he expected some sell off of the stock and it did not happen, I would say SMART man, just got it wrong.

But he indicated that Apple was in for a down drop. And now he thinks it is ready for a ramp up??

I have a two sided quarter too. Can I be an anal - ist too??

en

@Steve

Unfortunately the poem is not by me:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQ7tIfWD_FM

May 05, 08 - 10:42 am Comment from: mcdeans

Or perhaps he's come into some new information about future product releases that has changed his perspective and expectations.

May 05, 08 - 10:42 am Comment from: pastrychef

I agree with John. He used his position to manipulate the price of AAPL downwards.

@Gwendo

Some edits:

Kudos for Wu!

Oh everyone makes mistakes.
Oh, yes they wu
Your sister and your brother and your dad and mother wu;
Big people, small people, matter of fact, all people!
Everyone makes mistakes, so why can't Wu?

Bwahahahahahah

WU is an idiot and any future recommendations of his to sell, hold, or buy should be framed in the context that Wu is an idiot. Fool us once, foolish us; fool us twice, foolish Wu.

May 05, 08 - 11:09 am Comment from: Predrag

This board seems to be receiving a very high proportion of teenagers. Mr. Wu is responsible for providing investment information to customers with a lot of money to invest (and a lot of money to lose). At the time, two weeks ago, when he made recommendation to 'Hold' (not 'Sell'), AAPL has just had a 40% run-up in a period of a few weeks. They were just about to announce earnings for a quarter that was most disastrous for the most of US economy for the past seven years. The odds were stacked against AAPL, which was confirmed the day after earnings, when AAPL stayed put, not going anywhere, even though the report blew every expectation out of the water: Mr. Wu was right. However, as soon as substantial rumours about 3G iPhone started appearing everywhere, AAPL continued to climb. Hence, today's new recommendation.

Mr. Wu was one of the more bullish analysts for the past year. He was bullish even in January, when everyone else was crying (and people on this board were expecting a drop to $80s, screaming at Jobs for a stock buyback). So if you listened to Mr. Wu for the past year, your AAPL holdings would today be approximately double from last year, perhaps less than 8% lower than what you would have had if you had ignored his last recommendation of two weeks ago.

It is much better to err on the safe side. Especially when the outcome of your work affects many others. Not earning potential profits (without any work) is much better than losing money you had to work for.

@Steve - yes, MK preceded ATR in both the downgrade and upgrade. The MK interval was 16 calendar days and their upgrade happened immediately after the earning call. MK more clearly read the absence of the post-earnings share dump and their clients benefitted from their view.

I'd really like readers of this page to be more at ease with the nuance of commentary by analysts. It is easy to misplace the target of their thoughts - they are speaking about the shares, not the company or it's products. It requires discipline to always focus on what they do - they trade. Every comment must be read within the context of buying and selling the shares.

Lastly, as with players in every other game, they make plays on offense and defense. Don't get angry or upset - watch, learn, practice, and profit from what you come to understand.

Gene Munster at Piper Jaffray is the only analyst that has any clue as to what is going on with AAPL. I'd suggest that if you own AAPL stock or are thinking about buying it, to read his analysis and totally ignore any of Wu's drivel.

May 05, 08 - 11:19 am Comment from: Randian

Gene Munster, and ONLY Gene Munster, knows what's going on at Apple (among the pundit crowd). Make no mistake, everyone else in the ANALytical Game is listening to EACH OTHER . . . not Apple, its customers, its product line, its sales figures, its track record, and the like.

Let Mr. Shaw, Mr. Wu, or whatever he calls himself hurl his nuggets of wisdom at those who do not know his "Johnny Come Lately" relationship with AAPL. So be it.

As for me, however, Gene Munster's LONG-TERM connection to the company and its equity will do just fine.

May 05, 08 - 11:19 am Comment from: What?

@mcdeans
I think you have it right. Wu is usually in the loop with Apple and is usually Bullish.

May 05, 08 - 11:22 am Comment from: Demon

I guess you could say AAPL P0wnd Wu!
His clients lost a lot of cash following his recommendation and rating of neutral.

May 05, 08 - 11:42 am Comment from: MikeK

@mcdeans
I think you have it right. Wu is usually in the loop with Apple and is usually Bullish.

------------------

Actually, No. Wu IS NOT "usually in the loop" with Apple. The guy is a moron.. He has taken word for word comments from users at AppleInsider in his "Analyst reports." The timing of his reports is always several days after rumors appear.

The fact that he downgraded Apple to "hold" just days before earnings with all the early reports of Mac sales doing much better than anticipated just compounds his stupidity and inability to understand Apple apart from what he reads on rumor sites.

Though he is on the opposite side of the likes of Enderle and others, his reasoning is generally wrong..

@ Gwendo
At $1M+ a year in salary and bonus, analysts like this are paid not to make mistakes like this. No one can predict the future but his is a job of knowing the industry very well and applying sound analysis principles to give probable outcomes. He missed this by a country mile and has mislead frequently in the past. Your forgiving attitude is geared more for environments like grade-school not Wall Street. AmTech would do well to dump this guy today and hope the forgiving that takes place is that of AmTech's clients.

@ Predrag

Come on. Wu is looking at the same data as all the other analysts and came up with a different conclusion. The wrong one. Either that or he's just trying to manipulate. On either count he sucks.

May 05, 08 - 11:58 am Comment from: Predrag

No, he's usually right. His clients have made boatloads of money following his advice on Apple.

His advice is not for the day-traders; it is for investors. For those that put their money in some stock and let it work for them. While Gene Munster may have gotten it right even more often, Shaw Wu is still a big champion of AAPL and if you listened to his advice about AAPL, you would be rich now as well.

@ Predrag

Wu has previously made "predictions" about Apple product releases and then when the products didn't ship on his schedule, cited Apple as being late; and the stock went down. With champions like this..., as the saying goes.

"if you listened to his advice about AAPL, you would be rich now as well"

You sound like Wu's brother or some late night infomercial loser.

May 05, 08 - 12:55 pm Comment from: Ampar

With apologies to The Kinks.

"Yeah, Wu really got me now
Wu got me so I don't know what I'm doin', now
Oh yeah, Wu really got me now
Wu got me so I can't sleep at night

Wu really got me
Wu really got me
Wu really got me"

Amtech and other firms' notes are meant to generate trading, buys and sells on which they earn commission. If they don't do it themselves, they earn kick-backs from the firms with whom they execute clients's orders, up to half the commission. Thus, they issue notes to make people switch between different companies several times a year when actually, a better strategy is to buy some of each and hold on long-term.
They might actually also tank up on a stock themselves when it is cheap, wait until it rises, then issue a buy and their clients buy from them instead of from the market. In this case they make more money.

I womder how many folks took his advise?

And how many are still clients?

Will they never learn or my Mr. Wu simply out to make a buck if he had been able to drive the stock down?

Id so his actions backed fired big time!

The real question is will Mr. Wu have a job next Monday?

May 05, 08 - 01:39 pm Comment from: NCIceman

This type of job is such a racket....they get paid to guess just like the rest of us....

@Gwendo - thanks for the info.

@Tom, Predrag - I'd say you guys get it. Thanks for the filling me in on Morgan Keegan, I hadn't heard they changed their position.

For the record, I think Shaw Wu is a pretty good analyst. And for those on this board who insist that many people "lost money" due to Wu's recommendation, I'd suggest you learn the difference between "Sell" and "Neutral" ratings. His recommendation was essentially to hold through this period, don't buy more. If you sold during this period, then you can't read or you didn't trust his recommendations. I'd say his was a sensible call (if not astute) under the circumstances, as there was tremendous downside risk not many people picked up on. He's been pretty solid, not just on Apple, but on the tech industry he covers as a whole.