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Sat, Nov 21, 2009 - 09:22 AM EST  —  AAPL: 199.92 (-0.59, -0.29%)  |  NASDAQ: 2146.04 (-10.78, -0.5%)

Apple will outlast Microsoft
Friday, November 16, 2007 - 10:11 AM EST

"Microsoft may be Apple’s 800-pound gorilla, but Apple’s got something Microsoft will never have: fanatical loyalty. So, in this battle for the hearts and minds of computer users everywhere, who’s got the edge? The smart money’s on Apple," writes CIOUpdate columnist Richard Martin, president of Alcera Consulting.

"It is my contention that Apple is setting itself up for long-term success and even that rarest of things, corporate longevity. In short, I believe that Apple—with due regard to the authors of Built to Last, James Collins and Jerry Porras—just may be 'built to last.' Microsoft, on the other hand, has many characteristics which leave it vulnerable to attacks and threats from all sides," Martin writes.

"What sets these two giants apart is nothing other than customer experience," Martin writes. "So. You’re Apple’s competition. How do you compete against that? Do you tell customers your computer is more stable (which it probably isn’t)? Do you tell them your device is sleeker and more modern looking (hey, Apple’s is made in a hollowed aluminum casing lovingly carved by a laser beam)?"

Martin tellingly offers no answers whatsoever for Apple's competitors, just some bad news, "Simply put, Apple could probably make a lot of marketing mistakes and screw itself up silly, and it will still be around in a hundred years."

"I know this is going to sound like heresy, but I will say it anyway. Microsoft has a weak brand image. In some quarters, it even has a negative brand image. There, I said it... Users don’t feel any particular attachment to the Microsoft software they use. Many of them feel it is forced on them and dream of a more convivial workstation. Personally, I don’t see that much of a difference between the two computing paradigms, at least in terms of ergonomics, but I’m a nerd after all."

MacDailyNews Take: Almost universally, in our experience, people who "don’t see that much of a difference between the two computing paradigms," are Windows-only users. So, we're pretty confident that Martin has never used a modern Mac for any meaningful amount of time, but, yet, commendably, he still "gets it," even if he doesn't fully understand it.

Martin continues, "We live in a long-tail world, to use Chris Anderson’s phrase. Apple certainly isn’t invulnerable to an upstart device maker from way down in the tail. However, it at least has some very strong defenses in the form of strong emotional attachment on the part of users and customers and a consumer-oriented business model that seeks to please people as people, and not as workers. Microsoft, on the other hand, is extremely vulnerable to competitive pressures by any number of upstart device or software producers."

Full article - highly recommended - here.

MacDailyNews Take: Someday, the world will look back at the time when Microsoft's OSes dominated the personal computer and laugh (and/or cry) at the sheer folly of it all.

We can almost hear them now: "Can you believe that, no so long ago, 9 out 10 PCs ran Windows?" "ROTFLMAO!" "In the end, you didn't save any money, dummies, plus you lost what you thought you saved a thousand-fold!" "Bill Gates plunged a technologically-naive world into 'The Dark Ages of Personal Computing' with a rickety rip-off of Apple's Mac and then used his ill-gotten proceeds to try to buy his way into sainthood. That didn't work either; at least he was consistent." "Thank God (and Jobs) for Apple!"

Now, Microsoft may very well last for a long time, most likely by running some online ad service or as a holding company or peddling games they didn't come up with, but their dominance of the PC with a badly-executed copy of Apple's Mac, was, is, and will continue to be a nasty mistake that costs far more in real productivity, time, and money than most are willing to admit. This mistake will be corrected over time. In fact, the correction has already begun.

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Nov 16, 07 - 10:21 am Comment from: silverwarloc

"...seeks to please people as people, and not as workers."

That is the difference.

Nov 16, 07 - 10:39 am Comment from: Paul Thurrott

Hey, come on. I'm fanatical! I give myself ten Thurrott-heads for Windows fanaticism.

Nov 16, 07 - 10:44 am Comment from: Fanatical

Fanatical, yet anonymous!

Nov 16, 07 - 10:45 am Comment from: Zune Tang®

Wow the jealousy and desperation from the MAC lemmings is at a fever pitch. I suggest we e-mail this moron's editor to set the record straight. What's next? Upstanding Repulican congressmen engaging in homosexual trysts in public restrooms? Ha!

The reality is Vista is enjoying phenomenal success while Leopard languishes in obscurity like every other Apple disaster. Face it MAC dorks: Apple lost and Microsoft won.

And MACs can't play games. Losers.

Your potential. Our passion.™

Nov 16, 07 - 10:45 am Comment from: DLMeyer

Apple had a solid, committed following back when Steve Jobs was asked to leave. It took his successors just a few years to run the company nearly into the ground with their applications of "me too" computer design. Apple can certainly survive a few mistakes, here and there, but it can't afford to become "just another PC" - even if it keeps its OSX superiority.
Apple will remain a minority player - even if its status rises to #1 around the world - because it needs to be a Premium Brand, an arguably "better" design, and focused on the User Experience. There's a lot of growth left, before the Macintosh is #1, never mind "bigger than the rest - put together". We'll see #1. The Mac may already be #1 in its market segment. But ... so much depends on Jobs' vision - if not Jobs himself - leading the company.

Nov 16, 07 - 10:47 am Comment from: Fred Mertz

Love the "We can almost hear them now" lines!

Nov 16, 07 - 10:48 am Comment from: DLMeyer

ZT, the "dorks" comment was uncalled for.

The rest was amusing.

Nov 16, 07 - 10:48 am Comment from: MrScrith

There are people who have Fanatical loyalty to Windows as well... as masochistic as that may be... just look at the guy who got a Zune logo tattoo and wants to change his name to microsoft zune...

Nov 16, 07 - 10:50 am Comment from: rancher

Good morning Zune Tang, always nice to see you have time for your incisive, informative comments. Keep 'em coming. Makes may day.

Nov 16, 07 - 10:50 am Comment from: n

Apple needs to quit being scared of Redmond and do a better job at catering to their customers hardware needs.

With so many people installing OS X on PC's to meet their needs, for matte screens, toughbooks, 7" child computers etc., the market can no longer handle the limited hardware choices Apple offers.

Apple is advertising "Mac vs PC" but when people enter a Apple Store, they see just a few hardware choices.

The world is a lot bigger than that, Apple can own it if they quit being scared. Of Dell, of HP and of Microsoft.

Nov 16, 07 - 10:55 am Comment from: n

DLMeyer the MDN post NAZI.

Zeig Heil!!!

Nov 16, 07 - 11:01 am Comment from: Giggity Goo-gle

The only competition Apple will face will come from Google.

Nov 16, 07 - 11:02 am Comment from: Boult

There is two Zune Tang one has this ® attached.. hmmm so which one? Obviously not same person right?

Nov 16, 07 - 11:03 am Comment from: cuz I'm the taxman

ZuneTang,

Please refrain from referring to Republicans as engagers in "homosexual trysts". It is deeply insulting to homosexuals everywhere.

Nov 16, 07 - 11:05 am Comment from: smackman

I think in about 5-10 years you will see the market share thusly:

Apple=40%
M$=40%
Linux=20%

In my opinion, the way it should be.

Nov 16, 07 - 11:06 am Comment from: ron

"Did you mean: Sieg Heil " ron, the spelling Nazi.

Nov 16, 07 - 11:15 am Comment from: Ampar

"Outwit, Outplay & Outlast."

Survivor: Redmond.

Ballmer's secret strategy is to eat his opponents. Gates has stolen the immunity idol and will lie and cheat about it until he wins. We now join our episode in progress where we see Monkey Man braiding Turtle Boy's hair. They are whispering to each other about a plot to form an alliance with their competitors and then stab them in the back when they least expect it . . .

Nov 16, 07 - 11:22 am Comment from: NCIceman

Amazingly, Microsoft does have loyalists as well. But it's usually of the same mentality that used to drive the "Nobody ever got fired by recommending IBM" mentality, that of a follower rather than a leader. This just means the Microsoft decline will take longer, as these loyalists lack the faith that drives Apple fandom.

Nov 16, 07 - 11:24 am Comment from: Realist

Only If...

Apple wakes up and realizes that a standard of being better than the worst is the wrong standard - that will result in consumers believing what they have always believed which is that Macs are for a niche market for the sissy fringe fanatics who are driven by irrational desire for cute music players and glitzy phones.

Until then, the real world - business and personal - will continue loging on to whatever Windoze version works for them.

Nov 16, 07 - 11:45 am Comment from: Gavron

MDN won't let me register.
Is it my nationality, British?
Or my age, nearly 60?
Is it my 'religion' or lack of it? I'm an agnostic-Darwinist.
Whatever, my computer name is not Anonymous,

yours,

Gavron.

Nov 16, 07 - 12:11 pm Comment from: Big Al

Microsoft has a headlock on big business. Microsoft certified IT weenies run the show and they have all been indoctrinated into the Microsoft good, everything else evil way of thinking.

Until the IT weenies are deprogramed, Microsoft will continue to rule. Don't hold your breath on that Microsoft/Apple 40%/40% split.

Apple could get 14% to 18% of the US market and as much as 8% world wide and probably be quite happy with those figures. Let's face it, the third world will never embrace paying for an OS, let alone buying imported Macs.

Nov 16, 07 - 12:21 pm Comment from: ChrissyOne

"Please refrain from referring to Republicans as engagers in "homosexual trysts". It is deeply insulting to homosexuals everywhere."

LOLZ.

Nov 16, 07 - 12:33 pm Comment from: ZuneTang

I am the REAL ZuneTang...

Nov 16, 07 - 12:36 pm Comment from: mini mega

hey ZT,
if macs can´t run games,then i guess pcs can´t make word document sound like iwork´s pages,one advice to you ZT,think before you click.

Nov 16, 07 - 01:05 pm Comment from: Ray

This article should be on the "Chicken Little" web page.

Just my $0.02

Nov 16, 07 - 01:06 pm Comment from: MPC Guy

If Apple were to displace Microsoft, they would become the new Microsoft, but maybe worse since they've said time and time again that they'll keep the system close and be the sole supplier of software *and* hardware.

As it stands, it's already a dangerous scenario that Apple sometimes abuses. Imagine if they become the only game in town. The pressure to continually improve while offering decent prices will be gone.

Nov 16, 07 - 01:34 pm Comment from: Davidlow

I own some AAPL stock for long term growth, and my only big worry is that something might happen to Steve Jobs. By the way, Jonathan Ive is another one who should be extra carefull crossing streets and walking down steps.

Nov 16, 07 - 01:37 pm Comment from: effwerd

Actually, in the future they will only speak in leetspeek acronyms so it will be more like, "omg, cyi pc>mac? lulz"

Nov 16, 07 - 02:29 pm Comment from: Darkness

NO ONE expects the Apple inquisition! Their chief weapons are stability and design. Stability and design! And a fanatical devotion to The Steve.

wink

Nov 16, 07 - 03:25 pm Comment from: Gandalf

Fanatic: A person marked or motivated by an extreme, unreasoning enthusiasm, as for a cause.

Mac users buy Macs because they are better. Fanatic more accurately describes people who support Microsoft for they have apparently lost the power of reasoning.

I thought Built to Last was an album by The Grateful Dead.

My friend The Doctor, a Time Lord wouldn't you know - a scarce breed, informs me that the people of Via-Zest-Nu (that orbits the 'sun' known to earth dwellers as HD 69830) have a popular holotv series based upon the Microsoft domination of planet Turd (you call it Earth which is dark brown stuff that you walk upon, otherwise known as soil, dirt or zunes). Of course the Department of Via-Zest-Nu Security keeps a wary eye on Turd due to the aggressive and unethical actions of its warlike beings but with Microsoft dominating software they can relax having a laugh and quaffing Flock (an MDF based enhanced with PCP beverage) after all they use Windows as the operating system (pause for a laugh) on warships (not proper warships, they have to float on water). There is one thing they are envious of that Earth has, the coca plant, truly a nutritious and stimulating vegetal, which humorously is banned on Earth apart from the trading activities of the DEA. Another saucer is due to collect samples soon from an Andes region not previously sampled in the hope that a new genetic variation will prove suited to Via-Zest-Nu's environment. Via-Zest-Nu doesn't do genetic modification, it doesn't work, produces too many aberrations known as ballmers.

A good way for the illuminati to denigrate the wise in the general perception is to call them fanatic but that long since failed on Via-Zest-Nu as understanding is too widespread in the populace. Earthling Madness apparently is really a good show, if only we had holotvs on Earth.

Nov 16, 07 - 06:03 pm Comment from: Ian

To quote MDN:

'Someday, historians will put Gates into proper context for the masses: the ruthless nerd for whom mediocrity was "good enough," who thought business ethics were optional, and who plunged the world into the Dark Ages of Personal Computing. That history will be written on a Macintosh. And even Gates knows it.'

Nov 16, 07 - 06:10 pm Comment from: Olmecmystic

"'What really sets Apple and M$ apart? Is it the quality or type of technology? Is it the marketing and hype? Is it business strategy? The answer is none of the above. What sets these two giants apart is nothing other than customer experience.'"

Is this dude kidding? Quality/type of technology, marketing/hype, business strategy + customer experience = ALL of the above.

"'It's a phone. Remember? It's not a phaser that you can set to stun and you can't call Scotty to beam you up.'" The operative word is "YET".

Humor aside, I believe Apple's strategy is, in fact, to outlast M$. You can't take back what M$ stole, er, "appropriated" overnight. Apple is going to strengthen the brand and then leverage the brand further in ways we can't even anticipate yet.

One thing we can anticipate is Apple joining hands with Google (even if it is under the table) to defeat the beast from Redmond.

It's always been "cool" to own a Mac, even when it wasn't "cool", if you know what I'm saying. It's becoming even more so nowadays.

Order is being restored in the universe.

Peace.
Olmecmystic wink

Nov 16, 07 - 06:39 pm Comment from: Kit-N

"Microsoft may be Apple’s 800-pound gorilla, but Apple’s got something Microsoft will never have: fanatical loyalty."

We're loyal because Apple has earned our loyalty with superior products. The first sentence makes us sound like a bunch of trend-following lemmings.

Martin redeems himself pretty well in the rest of the article, however.

I agree with MDN. It sounds like he has never really used a Mac.

Nov 16, 07 - 06:53 pm Comment from: Norm

I think these things are very hard to predict. Microsoft makes a lot more money than Apple and they spend a lot buying startup companies that have innovative ideas. 40 years from now I would expect MS to still exist, and make most of their money from some idea that hasn't been thought of yet, and be led by someone who hasn't been born.

Apple currently has a wonderful innovative corporate culture and they make money on hardware, made more attractive by software that they can almost give away. As long as they are depending on hardware rather than just software, they're probably in good shape---hardware is harder to replicate so it's worth more. But they're growing very fast and that's a hard thing to do without messing things up. And as they enter new markets, it becomes harder to stick to simple strategies that have worked in the past. Are they still on the side of the consumer when they share cellphone revenue? Can they keep future products secret if they go after the business market, that needs to plan ahead?

I expect Apple to do well as long as Steve Jobs is in charge, and I hope they keep his legacy alive long after he's gone.

Nov 16, 07 - 07:30 pm Comment from: Ampar

Anonymous said,
"I think these things are very hard to predict . . ."

Damn. That's one of the most reasonable and insightful posts I've read in a long time.
Are you sure you're in the right place? (j/k)

Nov 16, 07 - 10:38 pm Comment from: macdaddy comes home

Great to see someone from IT who gets it. C.I.O.s or techwriters
who target them are usually the most vehament bashers of the Mac and Mac users.

Nov 16, 07 - 10:46 pm Comment from: !!!

The only pain in the ass in the whole tech world is the Linux RELIGIOUS-ass fanatics...

They're the one who forcefully crack OSX at bittorent sites.

Nov 17, 07 - 08:35 am Comment from: Zune Tang

WTF! Who is this "Zune Tang®" character?


Your potential. Our passion.™

Nov 17, 07 - 09:03 am Comment from: zune tatoo

WTF! Who is this "Zune Tang®" character?

a guy who seems to write far more amusing posts then Zune Tang

Nov 17, 07 - 05:32 pm Comment from: Ampar

Anonymous Norm said,
"I think these things are very hard to predict . . ."

Damn. That's one of the most reasonable and insightful posts I've read in a long time. Thanks.

Nov 18, 07 - 03:20 am Comment from: Rip Ragged

I'm not fanatically loyal to Apple. I'm fanatically loyal to superior technology.

Right now, Apple is superior to every other technology company.

When Leopard was released, FedEx brought in extra drivers to make sure they could deliver it on Friday. I'll bet you the rest of this drumstick Apple specifically requested that. Most other companies just ship it when they have to and you get it when you get and, "so what?"

If you're using Leopard, you're probably listening to music on iTunes right now. It's probably in a mini-window in the corner of the screen. Roll the pointer over the window and turn the scroll-wheel on your mouse. The volume goes up and down. That's the kind of meaningless detail that Apple pays attention to, that no other OS even thinks about. Windows guys will say, "so what?" and they'll be right.

If you want to apply for a job, are you going to attach a resumé or a resume to your application.

Hold down the Option key and type "e". Release the Option key and type "e" again, you get é. It will take you three minutes, minimum, to get that character in Windows unless special characters is part of your job description. You can do the same thing with "u" to get "ü." Option N N gives you "ñ." Meaningless? Individually, yes. A few thousand of those little advantages start to add up to a superior user experience.

It isn't emotional. It's based on the fact that I can do things with a Mac that I can't do in Windows. I'm not saying Windows won't let me do them. I'm saying I have to learn new things to make Windows do poorly what Mac does well easily.

That isn't fanaticism. That's preferring a sharp knife to a dull knife. It's preferring to have a car that runs because I'd rather not push it. It's preferring a toilet that flushes – I know how to use a plunger. I'd just prefer not to have to.

Let's not even talk about phones, music downloads, music players, or jukebox applications....okay?

Apple, right now, is doing great stuff. That could change. but I'm not fanatically loyal to anything except function. Form follows function. Apple products don't waste material, energy, or space to provide the necessary function. That's engineering – form.

Nov 18, 07 - 05:07 pm Comment from: Timbo

I dunno...out IT dept. seems to be either fanatical fans of MS or fanatically revulsed by Mac OS. I am one of six Mac users in a company with 200 or so Windoze people, and IT seems to regard us as a royal pain. They have my old MacBook Pro, so if they wanted to, they could dig in to OSX and enjoy it. But noooooooo.

Nov 18, 07 - 05:43 pm Comment from: Wintermute

Being a Mac user since '94 (thank God the friend I asked did a good enough job explaining the difference between Macs and PCs). Back then it was dark times, and I only ever dreamed of a days like today where the prospect of Apple going under is no more. I don't need every other a*hole in the world to agree or share my taste (or to have taste). Just enough to make what I want still a viable healthy option. Apple doesn't need to be number 1 in sales. Obviously that doesn't mean anything in terms of what is better.

I don't need my favorite restaurant to sell more than McDonalds. I just need them to do well enough that the only choice isn't to eat McDonalds. And well enough that it can afford to be creative and take bold risks.

I think Apple has been in that sweetspot for a while now. I used to rail against Microsoft only out of fear that the Mac would go under out of sheer ignorance. I'm not afraid of that anymore.

Let the masses buy and prefer Big Macs, Wal-Mart, and Dells. That's not so bad as long as I can be assured I'll never have to for lack of choice.

Nov 18, 07 - 06:07 pm Comment from: Road Warrior

Zune Thang and clones.... thanks for registering. I loved the insight of your last post:

"And MACs can't play games."
Of course not, they are toys.

Your games. Our toys.™

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