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Thu, Jan 07, 2010 - 03:32 PM EST  —  AAPL: 209.90 (-1.07, -0.51%)  |  NASDAQ: 2296.81 (-4.28, -0.19%)

Apple’s notebook computer business more valuable than HP’s and Dell’s combined
Saturday, November 07, 2009 - 04:39 PM EST

Apple Store"Based on our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis of the notebook PC businesses of Apple, HP and Dell, we've estimated that Apple's notebook business is more valuable than that of HP and Dell combined. Apple's higher valuation is driven by three factors: (1) higher average notebook pricing compared to HP and Dell (2) growing market share (3) higher margins (making Apple notebooks more profitable)," Trefis.com, a new financial platform that lets you see how a company's products impact its stock price, reports via Seeking Alpha.

Notebook PC Valuation
• Apple: $22 billion
• HP: $12 billion
• Dell: $6 billion


Key Valuation Metrics


Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Here's what we wrote last April in response to the cavalcade of fools calling for Apple to produce a low-cost "netbook" to "compete" with all of the other low-cost "netbook" peddlers out there:

Little Mikey had a lemonade stand. Okay, it was a kiosk. He sold 100 (8 oz.) cups yesterday for 10-cents each. He spent 11-cents per cup for artificial lemon flavoring, corn syrup, and the paper cups. He used tap water because it was free. Threw it all together in a big plastic pail. He's out a buck for all of his trouble. Boy, that was a lot of work for less than nothing!

Around the block, little Steve runs a lemonade stand, too. It's all blond wood and very clean. He sold 50 (24 oz.) glasses yesterday for 50-cents each. He spent 20-cents per glass on fresh-squeezed lemons, pure cane sugar, spring water (mixed with the utmost care), and some very nice glassware (he buys in bulk and gets a good price). He took home $15 yesterday. He's currently building his newest stand right where Mikey's used to be.


Macintosh. You get what you pay for (and part of what you're paying for is a healthy Apple, able to conduct proper R&D in good times and bad, that produces innovative, high-quality personal computers that satisfy customers like no other).

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader "GetMeOnTop" for the heads up.]

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Unregistered users: Feedback from multiple usernames are subject to deletion. Off-topic and posts from suspected astroturfers will be removed.

Nov 07, 09 - 05:11 pm Comment from: hotinplaya

The guys an idiot

"Pricing: We expect pricing to continue to decline for all three notebook makers.

Apple: $1,200 in 2009 to $699 by the end of the forecast period

Nov 07, 09 - 05:42 pm Comment from: An Optimist

It sounds like Dell is losing money on each unit sold. They've traditionally lost money on the low-end units, but made it up with increased purchasing-power with component suppliers and better margins on the more expensive models. Now it's just a net loss for the whole product line.

Nov 07, 09 - 05:47 pm Comment from: Wall-e

Some one once said online a while go, "stack 'em high, sell 'em cheap!" that mentality is dependent on high volume sales that are not always present; that's why apple has remained strong and isn't as vulneriable to recessions as other companies.

Nov 07, 09 - 05:50 pm Comment from: Zune Tang®

Nonsense. Another MAC astroturfer is playing with numbers to prop up a dying product. Computers are just tools to get the job done so it doesn't matter whether you use Windows or a Windows-wannabe like MAC. Besides, Windows is just like MAC so why would anyone spend hundreds of dollars more for the same thing? Smug elites who don't know anything about REAL computers, that's who.

Your potential. Our passion.™

Nov 07, 09 - 05:52 pm Comment from: An Optimist

Oh, now I see that Dell's margin is prefixed with a tilde for approximation, not a minus sign for a loss. Still, a five percent margin isn't very good.

Nov 07, 09 - 06:01 pm Comment from: Bolleke

Apple computers are pricy, but when you sell them you get a nice price for used models too. I purchased my PB G4 1,67 dual layer (second hand) 2,5 years ago for 900€, I've sold it recently for 400€, still a nice price for a nearly 4 year old PB. The same with my previous early 2006 IMac, sold for 800€. People should take that in account and subtract the possible rest values for the mac computers.

Nov 07, 09 - 06:07 pm Comment from: bobchr

The missing part of MDN's analogy is Steve also did more research into different types of lemonade (pink,strawberry blend, kiwi, raspberry blend); invested in lemon groves and bypassed middle men lowering costs while improving quality and variety.

Nov 07, 09 - 06:08 pm Comment from: x

Looks like Dell's profit is a rounding error. They need a frigging tilde.

Nov 07, 09 - 06:22 pm Comment from: Good News

Mac tablet soon?

Nov 07, 09 - 06:23 pm Comment from: DH

Zune Tang just doesn't understand the concept of“ total ownership costs of a product ”. This involves buying the product, antivirus software purchases, maintenance over the life of the product, and costs associated when the product is broken. Macs last longer, have zero problems associated with malware & viruses, which means more uptime. A tool that's broken is a useless tool when it's broken. I've often wondered how many high priced sales people wasted hours of time when a PC got infected with malware/software or just crappy operating software. What does that cost ???

Nov 07, 09 - 06:45 pm Comment from: qka

ZT, good to have you around. We'd so much rather hear from you than that retard "I'm a FeeCee".

@DH - ZuneTang is our resident satirist. Like your weird uncle, you learn to love him despite his flaws.

Nov 07, 09 - 06:52 pm Comment from: troy

Dell and HP are losing money because they just copy (like microsoft) everything apple does. So apple says :"I'm going to sell my laptop a little lower because I will profit in the software", so dell and HP do the same, but they never noted they don't make software to profit on. smile

Nov 07, 09 - 07:13 pm Comment from: Ampar

There will be a Mac tablet. It's a larger Touch.

Nov 07, 09 - 07:33 pm Comment from: alsoran

ZT is a bore. Those who enjoy his satire are probably very simple bores themselves.

Nov 07, 09 - 07:58 pm Comment from: geo

Hi Chrissyone, I mean Zune Tang.
For every netbook sold, a Windows laptop
purchase either gets postponed or never sold.
The Windows laptop market is undercutting itself,
regardless of how many zillion they sell. They are
pcs of junk with very low specs.
Apple, THANK YOU so much for not making a netbook.

Nov 07, 09 - 08:04 pm Comment from: DogGone

We all know this - Apple notebooks are way more profitable per unit.

What the article is not mentioning is that Apple are increasing sales. Just like with the iPod, Apple are beginning to be able to get better component pricing since they are selling more Macs every quarter.

This gives them two advantages. One - cost per unit will decrease. Two - they can slowly drop the price without affecting margin.

The result is that Macs get more affordable over time and customers that would have balked at the price may be more willing to switch. At the same time, low cost vendors get squeezed even more because the higher end units were where they made their money. With each Mac price drop, the lower end market profitability gets hurt.

Nov 07, 09 - 08:08 pm Comment from: bobchr

When you commoditize your product there is little else you can do after you have wrung every last dime out of your supply chain and support staff to create a paradigm shift unless you start to create your own operating system to help you differentiate your product. HP used to be a vibrant engineering company with thousands of patents and thousands of the best minds working for them. It's sad to see them plagued by the great MBA pall that has come over US corporations. For Dell there was never any hope. They were always a one trick pony and will always have to rely questionable marketing ploys to sell products of questionable quality to the uninformed masses. I'm glad in the 90's when they raided my company for manufacturing engineering talent I didn't get sucked into that scam.

Nov 07, 09 - 09:41 pm Comment from: Cem

Hi,
I'm an employee at Trefis.com - the site that conducted the analysis in the article. If you want to see more about how we forecast and over what period, you can request an invite for access to the site (it's free) at Trefis.com. On Trefis, you can also modify our forecasts for the analysis (e.g. pricing, market share, margins) and see what the value of Apple, HP and Dell would be based on your own beliefs.

Nov 07, 09 - 09:48 pm Comment from: auramac

"Windows is just like Mac?" Is that why the sociopath still lurks here? No friends among his peers? What a combination- arrogance Plus ignorance. 'Nuff said. Get a Life already!

Nov 07, 09 - 11:30 pm Comment from: Jim - TIV

By my count ZT snagged another two minnows on this thread.

Never ceases to amaze.

Nov 08, 09 - 01:56 am Comment from: disposableidentity

@alsoran, what are you talking about? Zune's last post reads like hiku.

Made my day.

Nov 08, 09 - 02:56 am Comment from: marko

No, I really don't think Chrissy One is Zune Tang...

she is a MAC DORK, like the rest of us.

Nov 08, 09 - 06:41 am Comment from: Ampar

Nice catch, Jim.

Nov 08, 09 - 01:15 pm Comment from: twilightmoon

Hey Ampar how ya been?

Nov 08, 09 - 02:38 pm Comment from: I knew it

chrissy uno is zune tang. it all makes sense.

Nov 08, 09 - 03:26 pm Comment from: I'm a PC

Who wants to pay more for a MAC when you can do everything on a PC. I'm sure this article is done by a Mactard that wants to bash against Windows. I feel sorry for the Mactards out there who doesn't seem to understand that Mac and PC's are the same but CRAPple rips those people who thinks Macs are better therefore STUPID.

http://www.bing.com When it comes to decisions that matter, Bing & Decide

Nov 08, 09 - 03:32 pm Comment from: TowerTone

TowerTang is Amp One
TowerTang is Amp One
TowerTang is Amp One....damn you voices...CEASE!!!

Nov 08, 09 - 03:48 pm Comment from: Ampar

Good, thanks. twilightmoon.

Easy there TT.

Nov 08, 09 - 04:21 pm Comment from: silverhawk

The real Ampar is a registered user. This one is dotless!

Nov 08, 09 - 06:11 pm Comment from: berrylium

Too bad there aren't more companies concerned with quality like Apple. It's a shame; we have some of the best engineers, scientists, and technicians in the world and yet we build such junk. I blame it on the overabundance of 3 piece suit MBA executives whose only concern is short term gain, share price, and their stock options, bonuses, and salaries. What do you mean--a 10 cents costlier part will last longer and be more reliable?! Screw that; let 'em suffer.

Nov 08, 09 - 08:36 pm Comment from: Ampar

Better, silverhawk?

Nov 08, 09 - 10:40 pm Comment from: MacSmiley

@I'm a PC

Forget the computer. Just buy yourself some Apple stock so we can listen while you change your tune.

Nov 08, 09 - 11:07 pm Comment from: MacSmiley

BTW, MDN, your little Mikey/little Steve story reminds me of that every so clever, ever so prescient fable from 2004,
The Perfect Chocolate.

Nov 09, 09 - 12:52 am Comment from: techprodave

Add up the market shares for all 3 and you get 39 perccent.
So who makes up the other 61 percent?

Nov 09, 09 - 04:08 am Comment from: Rainer

@techprodave:

Lenovo, Asus, Acer and a large number of whitebox manufacturers who re-label cheap ODM/OEM-notebooks built by MITAC or other such companies.

Nov 09, 09 - 06:04 am Comment from: Mr. Reeee

Hmmm... Methinks "I'm a PC" is ZuneTang's retarded little brother.

Hop back on the short bus and head back to Trollville.

Nov 09, 09 - 07:15 am Comment from: Road Warrior (nli)

Hey it's the Zune Thang moron. Gosh, talk about losing it more and more. That satire must be penetrating you a bit too much.


"Besides, Windows is just like MAC so why would anyone spend hundreds of dollars more for the same thing?"

Hey dildo brain, Windows are just like Macs? Really now. So tell us about the specs of a Microsoft computer. How much RAM? How big is the Microsoft hard drive, oh excuse me I forgot they can't get it up. What's there processing speed, oh right they don't have a brain, just disembodied software, emphasis on soft.

Morons like you might do windows but smug elites who know anything about TRUE computers.

Ya strayed from the herd turd.

Is your fan club around too, can't wait to let them apoligize for you....Oh Zuney is satire, Oh Zuney is funny. Well then looks like you can dish it out, but you don't take it or talk with people. So this fan thinks on top of all that, you are also a bully.

Nov 09, 09 - 08:33 am Comment from: disposableidentity

@ Road Warior... or it's straight-up satire. Comedy. Read carefully. The claims are so over the top. The language so perfect. If Zune is a bully, when did he/she ever attack anyone?

Zune Tang is more of a "set it, and forget it" kind of poster. If you fall into the trap, that's your problem.

Nov 09, 09 - 10:04 am Comment from: that's three

Cool Zune Tang, you got 3 today. Awesome

"I'm a PC" is retarded. he/she reminds me of the Shrek DVD Menu screen when the donkey is jumping in the back "Pick me! Pick me! Pleease! so desparate for attention and no one is biting (except me I guess.... damn it...)

MDN word 'irrelevant' as in what "i'm a PC" is

Nov 09, 09 - 08:39 pm Comment from: happytrails

When I read this article about getting higher profit margins, and increasing sales, the thought that comes to my mind is that Apple is doing good at finding more suckers to buy their high-margin goods. I have both PC's and a Mac at home and they all are having a good long life, the idea that PC's don't last and constantly have virus attacks is sheer nonsense. I have one PC that only the kids use with no virus software for over a year now, it's running like a charm. Can't get them to use the Mac sitting right next to the PC- go figure....

Nov 09, 09 - 09:08 pm Comment from: MacSmiley

@happytrails

Stockholm Syndrome is a persistent bugger. Put the PC away in the attic and make the kids use the Mac for a couple of months. Then put the PC back on the desk and see what happens. Report back.

Nov 10, 09 - 06:19 am Comment from: Road Warrior (nli)

Hey disposable identity read carefully.

You said" it's straight-up satire. Comedy. Read carefully. The claims are so over the top. "

I gather you are talking about Zuney. Well I said the same thing: "Oh Zuney is satire, Oh Zuney is funny."

So great agreement.

"If Zune is a bully, when did he/she ever attack anyone?"

First of all, if you read carefully I said I think he is a bully. It's an opinion, not a statement of fact. And if you can't see the attacks from Zuney's posts ("Windows wannabe like MAC" for this particular one, and "MAC lemmings/sheep" is another popular one) I ain't even going to try to point that out.

Now the thing about Zuney, is that you can't really set a trap for him per se cause the poster is most of the time too cowardly or caught up with himself or has a style that talks at people. There is no intelligent discourse, just a one way broadcasting. That in itself can be perceived as bullying.

However you can set quite an effective trap on the fan club folks that go around apologizing or explaining (on behalf of Zuney) with the "Oh he's just funny satire." Bait them and sure enough sooner or later one will fall into the trap.

It's not a problem though, I always do catch and release.

Now wasn't that funny?

Nov 11, 09 - 01:12 am Comment from: MacSmiley

@Road Warrior

The reason we know Zune Tang is writing "straight-up satire" is because he's been doing it for quite some time now. He happily filled a gaping hole left by Sputnik, if you go back that far.

Nov 11, 09 - 06:07 pm Comment from: Road Warrior

You may know that Zuney is writing "straight-up satire" is because he's been doing it for quite some time now.

You may know that Zuney is writing "straight-up satire" because the fan club shows up and explains it as such again and again.

However, you do NOT know that Zuney is writing "straight-up satire" because Zuney himself told you so. If he has, show me the post.

The last point being the case leaves a number of possibilities and opportunities to play with.

Nov 23, 09 - 05:33 am Comment from: Ting

I'm in Sydney, Australia and I just saw an ad on TV about a slim laptop called the HP Envy.

It's a knock-off of the MacBook Air.

Aptly named I thought...

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