“Taking aim at parts of the iTunes-plus-iPod system, now that it has become a de facto standard, is unlikely to work. At one end of the spectrum are the internet services that want to outflank iTunes by finding different ways to introduce people to new music. Changing this process of discovery – usually by adopting the sort of social networking tools employed by MySpace – is at the heart of services such as MTV’s Urge,” Richard Waters writes for The Financial Times.
“At the other end of the spectrum are devices that try to outclass the iPod. Sony’s PSP may have been invented for games but it has a screen that is far better suited for watching videos than the iPod. In between are new distribution mechanisms that change the way music is downloaded to portable devices. In Asia, where the mobile phone rules, accessing music over a cellular network is already a big business,” Waters writes.
Waters writes, “Innovations such as these will find a market and Apple’s position will undoubtedly be eroded somewhat, to the relief of an entertainment industry that does not want to see it become the gatekeeper to all digital media. Its 85 percent market share of digital music in the US is twice Wal-Mart’s share of the DVD retail business, and even that is far too large for Hollywood’s comfort.
“Yet Apple is still the only company that can tie it all together. Others have set out to copy it but are far behind. Microsoft, after a false start, wants to build a rival ecosystem of its own, called Zunes, while Sony has been cleaning up its Connect service after a weak beginning. Watching these companies chase Apple, though, is like watching rival search engines take on Google,” Waters writes.
Waters writes, “For now, Apple looks well placed to absorb all these innovations into its digital media ecosystem, either through its own inventions or becoming a copyist in its own right. Recent hints by a senior executive seemed to point to an iPod phone as the next product to hit the market and no doubt social networking through iTunes will be coming soon. As long as those white headphone cords maintain their allure and Mr Jobs does not put a foot wrong, Apple should be able to stay at the head of the pack.”
Full article here.
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Why are there so many articles that talk about what Apple is gonna do after Jobs leaves?
How do we know he isn’t gonna be doing this into his freakin’ seventies?
So, many people can’t deal with Apple’s success. It’s as if they are still waiting for the bell to toll for Apple.
Weird.
This article is correct. It’s very very difficult to unseat the de facto standard.
Now all of us Apple owns the market chest thumpers can go consider this; Windows is the de facto standard on the desktop. And that “ain’t gonna” change any time soon either.
Apple has 75% of the market and you believe they are unstoppable. M$ has 95% of an even larger market and you think they are going out of business next week.
No RDF here huh?
HOW TO DEFEAT THE IPOD
Create a portable music device with it’s own integrated music store, removeable chargeable battery, FM/AM radio, a seperate charger with automatic hard drive backup and DSL modem directly to music store servers.
It’s a complete system any fool on the street could use and buy without needing this thing called a computer. Especially since Windows sucks so bad, losing people’s music.
iPods are still only good for computer knowledgable folks, the majority HATE computers.
YOU NOW KNOW HOW TO KILL THE IPOD.
everything must pass Msoft Apple even you and I guy When is the question – in the 60’s people couldn’t conceive of IBM or GM going losing market share. I’m young enough that I too will see the two major computer brands go by the way og GM
Jerry T,
iPod+iTunes don’t suck vs. the alternatives.
Windows sucks compared to Mac OS X. PCs suck compared to Macs which can run Mac OS X, Windows and Linux and all the software apps while PCs can’t run Mac OS X, iLife, 100’s of still Mac-only Photoshop plug-ins, etc.
Those are major differences that you forgot to factor into your simplistic and flawed theory.
Hey Prof.
Windows has always sucked; it didn’t just start sucking when OS X came out…In fact XP SP2 does suck a little less.
Windows sucked compared to OS 6 when they captured 95% of the market.
PC’s sucked compared to Apple machines when they captured 95% of the market.
There have always been 100’s of Mac only plug-ins for Photoshop, even when Adobe themselves suggested all of its customers switch to PC.
PC’s can run all the OSes you mention, except OS X. There in lies the problem of broader Mac adoption BTW.
So yes, I did factor these differences. It just turns out that every thing you mentioned made absolutely no difference in stopping Windows from taking 95% of the market, and likely will make no difference in them keeping the 95% of the market.
I’m an iPod, Mac using kind of person. I wouldn’t switch to Windows for anything (except dual boot for games), but those are the facts…period.
So go back to school and learn some history.
Zune will never build an ecosystem. Microsoft is going to be in the mother of all battles with Creative.
First, Creative will sue Microsoft (after the Zune ships for maximum impact) because the name “Zune” sounds too much like “Zen”.
Second, thanks to its agreement with Apple Creative will make the Zen ship with a dock compatible with any iPod accessory. Zune will never have that capability and will thus be forced deeper into also-ran status. The Zens OTOH will find a nice niche on the edges of the iPod ecosystem.
Jerry T and Prof,
It just goes to show that there is room for both Ford/GM (MS) and BMW (Apple).
No one thinks BMW is going to take over the auto world, but nevertheless it is highly successful and hugely aspirational.
And so is Apple. And a plus point is the delicious iPod, which continues to cluster-bomb pretenders to its throne, and quite right too — it is the better solution.
VISTA is near ready for release!
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2003239532_webvista01.html
Can’t you just feel the excitement?
About as excited as I get when I have to sit for 1/2 hour on the pot, straining until my face turns red and then stuck there inhaling the awful smell.
*inhales* “aahhh hasta la vista” *choke* *hack* *cough*
“No one thinks BMW is going to take over the auto world, but nevertheless it is highly successful and hugely aspirational.”
The difference is that you don’t need different BMW Roads and different BMW Gas stations dispensing different BMW fuel.
Now that the Mac can use Windows roads and gas stations (on account of being Ford/GM mechanicals in a BMW body) there’s not the incentive to keep building those Mac only roads and gas stations.
How does it end? Well it’s not rocket science to see that eventually OS X dies out and Apple puts more focus on the Windows compatible side of it’s business.
iPod is already a Windows related business, not a Mac related one. Most iPods get used with Windows and the Windows version of iTunes.
The new Macs are Windows PCs as much as they are OS X PCs.
So what really is Apple’s future? It seems to be as a vendor of sylish hardware either running Microsoft operating systems or connected to a PC running a Microsoft operating system.
DJ,
I agree 100%.
My first post was a sarcastic jab at all of the people that claim market share is meaningless when discussing M$’s 95% ownership.
But it means everything and is insurmountable when discussing Apples 75% ownership of the music market share.
You’ll see all the stupid responses like Professors. People like him/her seem to think that Windows just started to suck and will surely go out of business now. I guess they never saw Win 3.1, or 95 or 98 or ME…Talk about sucking, those dogs sucked.
Never mind the millions or billions that every government and gov. agency and large corporations have invested in the architecture and some of its proprietary software. Never mind that 95% of all computer users on the planet have invested hundreds in software and hardware. iTunes is cool, so M$ must be going out of business.
Jerry T…
“Windows has always sucked; it didn’t just start sucking when OSX came out…”
True… and your assesment of Windows competition before the release of OSX is completely accurate. But… OSX is now here and will be in it’s 4th or maybe 5th generation when Vista is released. Think about that for a minute. The bugs were worked out of OSX in rev 10.1 – 10.3. Does anyone believe that Vista will be anything but inherantly unstable until vista sp1 comes out a year or two later?
Also, all of those windows using people are going to have to BUY NEW HARDWARE to run it. And not just cheap bottom of the market machines, but good quality, with a gig of ram. They are going to experience the same sticker shock Mac users have endured for years.
Total cost of ownership is finally going to be a reality in the Windows world for the very first time.
To put it simply… no one will be able to afford to purchase a new computer every other year just because their computer gets infected with malware and viruses.
You argument that the ipod/itunes model is the equivelant in market dominance to windows is accurate. But there is a huge difference in the coming market demands for the two. The iPod/iTunes model has quality in from the start. It’s going to be difficult to unseat. Windows has a huge market share as you rightly point out. But it is flawed and the market will flow to lowest cost that also offers quality.
Apple is uniquely posiioned to provide for this.
It’s gonna be a fun couple of years.
MDN word is “Future”… you’re freaking me out with this stuff MDN.
lol… just read my last post…. now why didn’t I spell check that?
Ahhh the angry defense. Always good for deflecting “real” issues.
Windows has always sucked; it didn’t just start sucking when OS X came out…In fact XP SP2 does suck a little less.
Windows sucked compared to OS 6 when they captured 95% of the market.
PC’s sucked compared to Apple machines when they captured 95% of the market.
In ’95 the number of computers used in households was very low. DOS was the standard in the enterprise, not because of MSFT, but because of IBM. Corporate America wasn’t going to change millions of dollars of hardware to get the Mac GUI, then have to rewrite all of their DOS apps. And the consumer wasn’t smart enough to know the difference between MacOS and a badly done knock off called Windows. What they responded to was enormous advertising and price tags that were less than the Mac.
During the past few years a much more knowledgeable consumer has begun re-examining their platform of choice and in increasing numbers are choosing Mac.
Gregg,
I wasn’t deflecting the “real” issue at all. I was trying to get to it.
The real issue here Gregg, is that the average consumer is not re-examining their platform. The average consumers are the people that think the internet is that little blue “e”. The whole big internet world is reduced to that little blue “e”.
See Gregg, these people go to get a mini and see that for $599.00 all they get is a little shoe box. That’s all I get, they say. No keyboard, no mouse?
While over here they get a mini tower PC that’s expandable they’re told, with a keyboard, mouse, monitor (often times a flat panel), more RAM, a bigger HD, 4 printers, ink jet cartridges, a ream of paper, 2 tickets to Disneyland including air and a coupon for a trip to the Moon base when it opens…all for only $399.00. Plus they can play DOOM a year and a half before us.
That’s the “real” issue Gregg. Tech savvy people like you and I may re consider our platform, but the average consumer isn’t. So to think that M$ is in trouble and shutting their doors because Vista is late, is a copy or sucks is stupid at the least.
And what angry defense do you refer? I wasn’t defending M$. I’m a Mac user trying to educate another Mac user that M$ isn’t doomed because iTunes is cool. As soon as NeoOffice works flawlessly or OpenOffice comes on board without needing X11 I’ll be M$ free.
Jerry T. You say a mouthful.
But lets just look at the real world. There are always going to be people that buy crap. Cheap crap that you throw away on a regular basis. Stuff that does not work.
We have a country of people, right now, that do not want to think. At all. They buy what they are told to. OK. Apple has a challenge.
BUT, Why should Apple do things the way others are doing them. They are making tons of money, getting market placement, and producing great products.
— Let Vista come out. It will be pretty, it will be better in virus protection than NT. But it still will be crap. Let Apple build its assembly levels slowly, getting good vendors and upgrading its staff at a rate it can manage.
JMHO
Jim – the independent voter,
I don’t think Apple wants or even can unseat M$ right now. They just don’t have the capacity. They can barely keep items in stock for 4% of the market. And to say that everyone will need to upgrade their hardware for Vista is still premature at this point. Vista is still in beta, for like a decade now so we don’t yet know the final.
I don’t think Vista will be stable until SP1 either. But that won’t matter, the day that M$ releases it, it will go on every new PC sold. Instantly it will have the second highest market share.
And for TCO and sticker shock, see my post to Gregg. While Apple charges $300.00 for a gig of RAM; the PC guy can get a gig for $69.99 at their super electronics store. In fact today’s Fry’s ad has 2 gigs on sale for $129.99. That’s what people see.
I’m afraid that quality doesn’t always win. In fact cheap and good enough does. That’s not likely to change anytime soon.
I do however, think that M$’s undoing could be their own. I mean come on; they have 50 versions of Vista. And have you seen the prices?
Of course as you pointed out there have been 5 OS X releases, at $129.00 a pop that isn’t cheap either. I only bought Jag, Panther and Tiger myself though.
I do agree with you…it’s going to be a fun couple of years. I can’t wait to get a quad.
Norm,
Sorry, I do blather on so.
I agree with you. I never said Apple should do anything more or less than they are right now. I wasn’t Attacking Apple. Just the people that seem to think M$ is doomed because iTunes is cool or some silly notion like that.
These people laugh at any who dare come at iTunes 75% of the market. Yet thinks M$ is going out of business any day now. Despite a 95% market share.
I’m a Mac and iPod guy. I won’t use Windows for anything except to play games. I also won’t get pulled into a RDF.
That’s all I was trying to say…in 6,000,000 words or less.
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Was up at the airport talking to a friend yesterday about airplanes, and panel toys (avionics). Our opinions differed, in an amicable way. Then the topic of Vista popped up. He’s a True Blue XP jock, I’m on the Dark Side (from his point of view).
An educated person always maintains some portion of their mind as an objective “seer,” that tiny island of reason that stands apart from any belief system. I had trouble doing so here, though, and had to admit Mac vs PC is akin to any other charged “Belief System” struggle.
Part rational, part defensible, part irrational.
Later, after I cooled down, I still couldn’t believe this guy, a good friend, could be so blind. Comments like “Vista will be better at video creation” rang for hours.
Pass the plate.
Three things you can’t discuss: religion, politics, and which computer platform is better.
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Gregg,
I just saw that Office Depot is offering a $99.00 PC. It comes with a keyboard, mouse, CRT monitor AND a printer. It only has 256 mb RAM, 80 gig HD and the printer is a POS.
But will the “little blue e IS the internet” people suck this up? Yeah, faster than you or I can say mini.
That’s the “real” issue. This isn’t a debate on which platform is superior, I think we all agree that’s OS X, it is a Mac forum for God’s sake. Apparently M$ agrees too, they copy the Mac enough.
However, this is a price vs. good enough problem. And it doesn’t matter that a comparable Dell is $300.00 more than a Mac Pro. Most consumers aren’t buying $3000.00 computers; they are looking at these kinds of ridiculous deals.
“Windows is the de facto standard on the desktop. And that “ain’t gonna” change any time soon either.”
replace the word “Windows” with the words “Big Blue” and turn time back to the eighties.
Big who? you say… my point exactly.
CC,
It took 20 years for Big Blue to fall. M$ is at its highest point right now with 95% market share.
It’ll take 10-20 years to erode that. In the grand scheme of things I agree 20 years is nothing.
But in consumer electronics time it “ain’t THAT soon”…my point exactly.
“Big who? you say… my point exactly.”
Big Who? is still bigger than either Dell, Apple or Microsoft, and about the same as HP in terms of revenue.