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Nov 21, 08 - 02:19 pm Comment from: deepdish

we better not. I have lost enough already.

Just bought some at 80...I guess I would buy more at 70...and more again at 60....eventually, however, all my money will have evaporated.

I certainly can see aapl under $60, just as I can see the Dow under $600. The situation is bad on many fronts. But Apple Inc. is on the right track, and will certainly come back, so going long, no one should lose money here.

It's called a Post Real Estate Bubble Recession.

People are paying most of their income to mortgages, limiting disposable income for other items such as computers and electronics.

This trend will continue for many years (as people have long mortgages) until several things occur.

1: More well paying jobs
2: Housing glut is down to a few months supply
3: Increase in population

The US economy is currently undergoing deflation, where prices getting lower because of low demand, because not many people have a whole lot of disposable income.

When the Democrats take full control of the government, (*shudders at the thought*), they will certainly increase the money supply substancialy to bail out everything and everyone. This will cause a sudden and dangerous HYPERINFLATION, where investments get wiped out and we all pay more for everyday items and including gasoline, which the Dems want to promote "clean" alternatives.

My advice, and Bill Gates has already put 2 billion dollars in, is buy Treasury Inflation Protected Securities and/or I-Bonds. Timing is essential, so read up on it before January when the auction is held for individuals, or you have to go to a broker. So when hyper-inflation hits, you buy those.

Or else you'll watch your saving deteriorate anywhere between 8 and 20 percent PER YEAR due to inflation and gas reach $5 per gallon early spring.

Of course the gold bugs are predicting $2000-$3000 per ounce, but when it gets that high, who's going to buy large amounts?

By the way Warren Buffet has bough huge amounts of ConocoPhillips, "skating to where the puck is going to be"

If your asleep of course your going to lose money.

Apple? Well, wait for the economic rebound when it occurs.

Nov 21, 08 - 02:33 pm Comment from: deepdish

Must learn to use my stop losses. When will I ever learn. The October drop (for the whole market) was once in a lifetime though.

Nov 21, 08 - 02:39 pm Comment from: MacRaven

I gotta go shake the old change jars for investment money.

I'm waiting for it to go down a bit more.

A fun exercise:
1. Subtract Apple's Cash & Short-term Investments position from its market cap to determine the market value of the enterprise.
2. Divide by number of shares outstanding to get market value per share.
3. Divide by consensus projected 2009 earnings to get adjusted P/E.

You get about 8.

In 2002, this value was around 5. That's the lowest I ever saw it. Over the next five years the share price of AAPL went up 20x. And in 2002, Apple was bleeding and hurting bad. Now it is growing like crazy in the face of the worst slow-down since the 1930's, if not since the Civil War.

So, best case scenario: the economy picks up a bit, and Apple continues to grow. AAPL goes up 20x from here, and in five years it reaches $1,600 per share.

I'm only half kidding.

Nov 21, 08 - 02:43 pm Comment from: 84 Mac Guy

Hey MacGenius, aren't you Mr. Sunshine.

Unfortunately, you are probably mostly correct in your analysis.

You filthy American pigs have elected a man who will destroy your country. The capitalist pigs on Wall Street are busy establishing the value of America during his administration. They see great gloom and doom when The Chosen One takes control of your country.

well it's been going back up in the last hour

you are a short with greed in your heart

stop listening to this ass hat ...........

He has no soul and his family needs diamond spoons to feel anything so zack

piss off will you please

I bought Apple at $29 and then sold at $68. Kicking myself ever since. If it goes back to $60s I can get back in the game, excellent.

Bass writes, "If we fall to the 666 level on the S&P;, then this would equate to the next level of support for AAPL which would be in the 62-64 range..."


Funny, the Chinese lowered their prime lending rate to 6.66% instead of in quarter or half points like everyone else.

Getting ready for the "Beast" to take the Oval Office I assume.

Buy gold and run for the hills.

Nov 21, 08 - 04:09 pm Comment from: Connor MacBook

I've been feeling a *little* better about passing it up at $7 (split-adjusted). Might pull the trigger if it gets much lower.

I'm not looking at where AAPL is going, but rather where the markets are going. Right now they are heading DOWN and I can see no reason for that trend to reverse right now. Bush certainly isn't doing anything to restore confidence for consumers, improve unemployment or reduce home foreclosures.

And then there is the End of Year sell off where a lot of investors will dump stocks at a loss to cut their 08 taxes.

Watch the DOW. It went into the 7000's - did we see a mass of buying? We might not see it when it goes into the 6000's. I've already read that 5,700 will be the low point. That now seems possible, especially if the Big 3 auto makers continue to have problems, or file for bankruptcy.

The sad fact is that the market is in sad shape and isn't going to get any better for a while. That leaves AAPL and other good stocks with risks of going a lot lower.

I'm staying away from stocks until the market improves AND there is a reason for that improvement. Without a reason for that improvement I can see gains being only short term.

I bought mine at 13. Now that I think about it, I guess I should have sold some when it was near 200. Dang!

Apple MacGenius wrote:

When the Democrats take full control of the government, (*shudders at the thought*)

I know exactly what you mean. The Rebublicans have been like psychopathic satanist Nazis hellbent on destruction. It's hard to imagine how bad the Democrats will be.

No need to bring politics into this. While I can point to several Republicans who contributed directly to the current economic problems, SURPRISE ... there was a Democrat or two who also contributed. And that's just the twits in DC.
The price of AAPL has never really been about the value of the company. Or its business. Or anything ELSE about Apple. It has had only to do with the price of the STOCK. The price is dropping today mainly because the entire market is losing "value". There is a floor on the price of AAPL, though. About $10. Because that is how much cash they have on hand. Most of the rest have a negative amount of "cash on hand" - generally called "debt". No floor.

Nov 21, 08 - 06:00 pm Comment from: doc

In the 1970's didn't everything trade at book, giving us about 27.50 on appl?

Just a year ago AAPL was called to hit $600.

Now it's being called to go under $60?!?!

Folks, today it's not about stock price, it's about survival. Is Apple experiencing severe losses and/or dog-begging for a bailout? HARDLY!!

Apple will survive this, perhaps even thrive, and should bounce back very nicely when rest of the market returns from the dead.

It's hard to imagine how bad the Democrats will be.

Depending how a few key Congressional race recounts go, the Democrats just might get a supermajority. THEN look out!

Bad is when ANY entity (Republicans, Democrats, whoever) gets enough of a toehold that they can circumvent our system of checks-and-balances.

Too much power concentrated in any single place (esp. a political party) is a Very Bad Thing.

Bass is talking in terms that completely shut me out from anything he has to say: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS. It's a loser's game. All the great minds in the stock market follow fundamental analysis. A stock's price can be pushed around in the short term by negative or positive market sentiment. But in the long run, a stock's price will track its earnings.

The good news is that Apple's earnings have been stellar, even in the most recent quarter. It is not earnings that are driving down Apple's stock price, but rather, fear. If Apple has another couple of strong quarters, the stock's price will take care of itself.

Remember: you don't realize a gain or loss on a stock until you sell it.

I'm not enjoying the current market turmoil any more than you. But I am convinced that Apple is a very well managed company, that Steve Jobs' health is just fine, thank you, and that the company will continue to innovate and produce exceptional quality products. In the long run, I believe my patience will be rewarded. And as I have some extra change in my pocket, I will buy more Apple stock.

Remember the sage words of Warren Buffet: "Be greedy when others are fearful, and be fearful when others are greedy."

Taken that way, these could be the best of times for a stock whose price has been beaten down way below its intrinsic value.

Apple will hit $10 a share before this is over. Hit $6 a share back in 2001. Has nothing to do with the performance of the company. Some shareholders will be forced to sell no matter what the price by the courts.

This is a double witch. Greed and Greed. The housing market only tanked because of Greed. Loans written with strange and unrealistic terms that could never be met. Buy a million dollar home at the price of a fifty thousand home.... for 3 years, then the whole amount is due.... get real... witch number two... Greed. The oil companies and speculators cranked up the price of gas to the point that the entire economy stalled. Spending stalled. No consumer could continue to spend. Everything was taken up in either an out of control balloon home loan, or gas prices that kept us from buying the goodies at the mall.

Our economy is driven by greed. That is not bad. But. It has it's price, to everyone. Even the greedy. I expect things to get straight. Gas prices are now back to where they should be. The home loan people have learned their lesson. Oh... and the car folks got spanked. Ha!

The devaluation of Apple's stock has been anal-ists fault from the beginning with there IDIOTIC tales on the web of doom and gloom.
High School kids writing STUPID stories on CNN. Nothing factual that points to such a tremendous drop and devaluation of Apple's stock. Record profits every quarter, market share up every quarter, iPhone 3G record sales. Mac record sales. Does this sound like a company that should have lost over $100.00 a share in value? I don't think so and I haven't seen any FACTUAL INFORMATION that can explain this. This really pisses me off!

Nov 22, 08 - 08:34 am Comment from: Hm...

I get a really good laugh out of all the people who try to give rational explanations or "technical analysis" for the stock market's moves.

I get another good laugh out of the people who keep spouting a every chance about the 'Dems' taking over and killing the economy.

And the ones needing to complain about the government failing at everything while they drive on the roads to work where they're protected from fires, etc., are special.

Hey, MacGenius! Make my day — insert one of your "matte screens" screeds to round out the collection in this thread.

Great comedy, folks. Keep it coming!

Nov 22, 08 - 08:35 am Comment from: chaz

@MacGenius:
Sorry; all the good paying jobs are being exported (sorry "outsourced") to India, China and Korea. In this regard, both Democrats and Republicans are to blame.

Americans keep self inflicting wounds, keep buying those Hyundais, Kias, and Volkswagens, that have 0% US content. (Yet we will all pay to subsidize the auto companies these folks will not buy cars from).

Must be the same majority that buy the PC's (Dull at that, and then start a class action suit because M$ said they were Vista capable). They aren't intelligent consumers just consumers!

China can't wait for the US stimulus package to US taxpayers, so they can restock the shelves at the "Great Wall"mart.

Where's that guy who used to boast about having his life's savings in AAPL stock and how well he was doing?

Perhaps he could add a post to this thread.

Apple is going down because it's fundamentals can't support the ridiculous price it got up to. Darker days are ahead as consumers stop buying expensive electronic trinkets for Christmas and sit around the fire sipping gruel instead.

You forgot another key piece of Buffet advice, don't invest in technology stocks. Ever.

Apple is going down because it's fundamentals can't support the ridiculous price it got up to.

Who ran the price up? Apple or the market?

If someone put a buy order in when AAPL was $199, who's really to blame?
Why is it always someone else's fault?

<i>Darker days are ahead as consumers stop buying expensive electronic trinkets for Christmas and sit around the fire sipping gruel instead.<i>

Oh please. IOW, within a year we've went from becoming billionaires to "sipping gruel"??

You want expensive trinkets? I just got a Christmas catalog that featured a $6000 coffee maker (no kidding). I'd hate to be betting on sales of that one!!

Lest we forget, Apple is a profitable company, with a solid product line nicely positioned in the market. They're almost ideally situated to survive any downturn. Compare to Dell and certain automakers, which were having trouble even in prosperous times...

Me being a dummy am already past looking at the stock market. I figured long ago when they passed on an opportunity for a 3-1 split when they were at $190 they were stupid. I am waiting for the bond market bubble to burst in the coming months. Just think of all those municipalities that issued bonds for school and other local projects that get approved in referendums and are created I'm the following months after an election. Does anyone honestly believe there are going to be returns after the stock markets downturn? First the muni's then the treasury bonds. Do municipalities ever default or lose their credit rating? You betcha! What is happening now won't be solved by throwing more money at it. Even the newly elected B.O. won't solve this constitutionally. Maybe there will be another FDR grab for gold. Just something to think about.

"Who ran the price up? Apple or the market?"

It's always the market of course, but that same market has now figured out that it was at an unsupportable level.

"Oh please. IOW, within a year we've went from becoming billionaires to "sipping gruel"??"

Yes, when you read the consumer confidence numbers, that's how people feel. That translates directly into a reduction of discretionary purchases. Not by everyone, But only 20% need to defer a purchase for a company's sales to decline 20%...

"They're almost ideally situated to survive any downturn."

They're a luxury product maker at the very top end of the market where cheaper substitutes exist. That alone should tell you that they will be the relative loser compared to makers of cheaper products. Of course they'll survive the downturn, but they won't prosper during it.

Anyway, I'm still waiting to hear from the know nothing blowhard(s) who thought Apple couldn't lose and has lost more than half their life's savings.

I've been warning about this for some time now. When growth stocks roll over they often correct 72%. Never take more than a 7% loss. NEVER.

First rule: Protect your investment.

Second rule: Read rule one again and make sure you understand it.

Seriously, IBD spells this out clearly. I've been in cash since 11/07 except for day trading and I'm glad of it.

If your not day trading, consider the CAN SLIM method as a way to swing trade. Sometimes, that means staying out of the market. Never buy and hold because you have some misguided loyalty to a company. http://www.investors.com

I think it was Gerald Leob that said the secret to his success as an investor was that he always go in too late and out too soon. What he meant was, he waited for strength and then didn't get greedy. He also wasn't afraid to take a loss because he knew that if he kept his losses to a minimum and let his winners run then he could loose on over half of his investments and still make money.

Something to think about as we watch the markets.

Nov 22, 08 - 11:11 pm Comment from: Beeblebrox

A. This started as a Democrat induced economic downturn primarily related to Congressional energy policy over the last 2 years. The cap and trade/AWG nonsense coupled with a strong anti-drilling policy by Reid and Pelosi drove gas prices to historically high levels over the last 18 months. When that happened, businesses that relied on low energy prices started going belly up. When that happened, people lost their jobs. When that happened, they couldn't make their mortgage payments.

B. We've had ARM loans for a long time. So why only in the last year has their existence brought us this economic disaster? Well, the mortgage business was already fragile with people barely making their payments due to high energy costs. Energy prices spiked big time this last summer and not only did responsible homeowners get bit but all those risky loans that Obama, Dodd, and Frank were pushing banks to make to people who could barely afford to rent, became toxic. But bigtime Democrat operated Fannie and Freddie bought them up anyway and went bankrupt in the process.

C. There is not a single Repubican who can be pinned for the current economic mess (unless you blame Bush for not vetoing all the idiotic legislation that the Dems have been pushing for the last 8 years.) The Republicans were trying to avert this disaster and the records prove it.

Yes, I do hold Bush accountable for trying to get along with the Democrats instead of growing a pair and shouting "NO" to these power hungry idiots. But he didn't and so, despite bringing a new tone of bipartisanship to Washington DC (which got him no love whatsoever), we're all screwed.

D. Any item that is typically purchased with disposable income is now going to have a hard time surviving. Whether it be Vanilla Lattés, iPhones, or new automobiles. I only wish that the only people losing jobs right now were those who voted for the Liberals who caused this mess in the first place. THAT would be poetic justice.

Instead, we all suffer. Buy hey, we got "change"™. The market started tanking big time as soon as Obama won the election, the first time that has happened since the WWII era.

Our only hope?

Someone tells Obama he now must LEAD. Bush is a lame duck. He can't make any proclamation that will calm the markets. Meanwhile, all the markets really need is to know what to expect. They need STABILITY.

Obama must tell the business community that he is not the Marxist that he told Joe the Plumber that he was. He needs to say he was kidding about that "spread the wealth" stuff and that he will veto any bill that raises taxes OF ANY KIND (especially cap gains taxes). This is what the market needs in order to recover.

Furthermore, he needs to make oil and gas exploration a cornerstone of his economic plan and tell Pelosi and Reid to find another way to screw the American public.

Finally, he needs to get out on television tomorrow and stop with the bromides and clichés and actually articulate a pro-growth economic policy that will bring companies back to America and restore confidence in the free-market.

After that we'll watch pigs fly.

The point is not the values and prices of things... the point is the value of money!

@Jerry,

"And that's all I have to say about that. Markets go down, they will inevitably come back up. Buy now and you can mock your friends two years from now when AAPL breaks $250 and you bought at $53 per share."

Markets do but growth stocks don't always recover as quickly. I'm not saying Apple won't but it's a much bigger risk until it sets up in a proper base. You could take the risk but a better strategy would be to buy leading stocks when the market turns around and make money on them vs. parking your money is a stock going down or staying flat for who knows how long.

@ Beeblebrox,

Actually the market started tanking after the Democrats took over Congress. It took them a some months to do it but B. Frank and C. Dodd lead the way down on the sub prime mess.

Also, your right about bush trying to ride the middle. To add to your point about the sub prime loan mess. Since 2003 or so Bush has tried 19, that's right 19 times to do something about it and each time it was blocked by Dodd and Frank.

They're a luxury product maker at the very top end of the market where cheaper substitutes exist.

Look at the auto market. Luxury makes at the upper end (within reason) are profitable; cheaper substitutes at the bottom end are not.

Apple is right where they need to be: not too high, not too low, profitable, and with a loyal customer base. Compare to money-losers like Dell (and certain automakers), whose price-only customers have come to expect perpetual fire-sale rebates. The party can't go on, esp. in a recession....

"Look at the auto market. Luxury makes at the upper end (within reason) are profitable; cheaper substitutes at the bottom end are not."

But during recessions, people always cut back, Not ALL people but you don't need it to be ALL people. Only 10% of those who were going to but a BMW need to buy a cheaper car instead for BMW to hurt.

To deny this is to deny one of the basic things that happen during EVERY recession. People tighten their belts and some proportion defer purchases or make do with cheaper products. Apple is not some magical company that escapes this basic economic effect.

"Compare to money-losers like Dell"

My God, Dell is losing money? When did this loss at Dell occur? 1993? I think that's it. They've been profitable every year for at least the last 4 years.