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Climb aboard the Time Machine (no, not that one) and see how Apple looks in 2010
Monday, February 25, 2008 - 06:42 PM EST

"I took a trip to the future last month, and boy, was my flux capacitor tired," Rick Aristotle Munarriz writes for The Motley Fool.

So, how does Apple look in 2010, just two short years from now?

Munarriz reports from the future, "As you probably expect, Apple continues to nibble away at the market share in the desktop and laptop computing space. Apple's domestic market share has doubled to 12% by 2010, well ahead of when market-watchers like Gartner figured this would happen."

"Apple is still the trendsetter when it comes to style, design, and pushing the technological envelope. There are actually MacBooks rolling out in 2010 that weigh less than those Air models that were all the rage in 2008," Munarriz reports. "But these come with an optical drive to watch Blu-ray flicks or experience enhanced music CDs."

MacDailyNews Take: Maybe Rick doesn't have a time machine after all. Or he took a wrong turn and went backwards. Shiny spinning plastic discs are the past, not the future.

Munarriz continues, "Apple still easily hit its 10 million cumulative-unit sales mark by the end of 2008, with the vast majority of those iPhones going to happy AT&T converts. Apple just got smarter about it. It eventually bumped the price up to $599, with an instant $200 rebate on sales tied to AT&T two-year contracts."

"Apple is still the leading player -- by far -- in digital music players. But the market's not as big as it used to be. Cell phones -- including Apple's own iPhone -- and smaller portable computers helped eliminate the need for toting around two costly trinket," Munarriz reports.

Full article, in which Munarriz proves once and for all that he's incapable of time travel by claiming that "even the second incarnation of Apple TV proved fruitless," here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader "Joe Architect" for the heads up.]


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Feb 25, 08 - 06:54 pm Comment from: ralph from berlin

by claiming that "even the second incarnation of Apple TV proved fruitless"

unfortunately he is right: the second coming of the apple tv died a silent death because of the old "no content" problem ...

Feb 25, 08 - 07:05 pm Comment from: Davsot

You guys definitely hate blu. too bad

Feb 25, 08 - 07:05 pm Comment from: LeftCoastDude

AppleTV is not going to replace Blu-Ray for aficionados, just as MP3 is not going to replace CD's (or DVD-A for real sound quality) for those same aficionados. AppleTV cannot deliver 1080p, the "extras", and the 7.1 sound of Blu-Ray. In the future, it might, but we'll be onto the third or fourth generation of Blu-Ray. I understand the need for MP3's and AppleTV, and I have both. But I also like very high quality music and video, and i always will.

Feb 25, 08 - 07:11 pm Comment from: macdaddy

@ ralph from berlin

I think we all get it, you are very unhappy with the lack of rentals in the itunes music store. Move on, quit your crying and find something new to bitch about.

Quick history lesson now. When the itunes music store first launched it was designated as a failure. Anyone remember why? I do, lack of content. It is now the largest most successful online music store. It was not a failure after all. Does this mean Apple TV is going to be successful? No, but you do have to start somewhere right?

Please Ralph, find something new to whine about.

Feb 25, 08 - 07:16 pm Comment from: KenC

Rick M of MotleyFool may not have a very clear crystal ball, but then again, he's not a tech pundit. He's an investment fundamentalist, and he likes Apple, and has for a few years now.

Feb 25, 08 - 07:25 pm Comment from: ken1w

> But these come with an optical drive to watch Blu-ray flicks or experience enhanced music CDs."

During those two years, Apple must have invented the technology that makes the inside of something larger than outside. Imagine the possibilities...

Feb 25, 08 - 07:34 pm Comment from: NeonRed

@ ken1w:
What?!! It is there in the future, and the past for that matter.
I saw it on the BBC--- Dr. Who i believe he's named, has one!
Except the new mac pro might have to look like a police call box?
lol

Feb 25, 08 - 07:39 pm Comment from: Dutch

Davsot is right. The fact that Apple is not pushing Blu-Ray does not have to mean that we all like lemmings start claiming that the movies rented through the iTunes store are superior. Why? Simply because they aren't. Blu-ray delivers much better video and audio. Don't get me wrong, I love the convenience of renting movies though my Apple TV, but I will continue buying my all time favourite movies and for that, Blu-Ray currently represents, by far, the state-of-the-art.

Feb 25, 08 - 07:39 pm Comment from: Mac Maniac

Biggest Apple fan but, the iPhone sux, sorry to say...

Saw a guy, like I was, had to have the "latest Apple toy".

Well I told him flat out that I was a over 20 year Apple veteran and found the iPhone to be a functionally failure of a device.

The laptop was much much more superior as a internet device and he made the point that you can't carry a laptop in your pocket.

I rebutted that I have a SUV that has no problem carrying 7 other people and towing over 5 tons at the same time, a laptop wasn't going to hurt it none. So basically the iPhone was only good for cities or other places where walking and carrying a laptop case would be a chore.

Then I mentioned how tiny the screen is when he cursed himself as he hit a wrong link and had to wait a few minutes to get back to the previous page over a SLOW GODDAM 2G NETWORK.

Then I said how much I love my full sized keyboard, he responded he had several laptops. I mentioned can he run Javascript on the iPhone?

Checkmate...

Now if the iPhone had a full sized keyboard and a pair of those video goggles...

...perhaps...perhaps...

Feb 25, 08 - 07:44 pm Comment from: hs

Time And Relative Dimensions In Space = TARDIS

Rick's Expected Time And Dimensions In Space = RETARD

mw: probably

Feb 25, 08 - 07:50 pm Comment from: hs

oops that would be

RETADIS

sigh... nvm

Feb 25, 08 - 07:53 pm Comment from: deja vu

Now if the iPhone had a full sized keyboard

eMate 2.0? How about with built-in wireless/wifi and a bluetooth headset for taking calls?

Then again the future has surprised us before. Still fun to go back and see the predictions from 1993. smile

Feb 25, 08 - 07:56 pm Comment from: Stenar

I haven't used my shiny plastic disc drive in ages. Those things are definitely a thing of the past.

Feb 25, 08 - 08:05 pm Comment from: deja vu again

and a pair of those video goggles...

Funny nobody's been able to turn regular reading glasses into video screens. At least until volumetric displays, viewable only by the user, are developed. The bug-eye goggles gotta be shrunk a bit more if they're gonna go mainstream.

Hmm maybe this is one area Apple could put part of that $18 billion into...

Feb 25, 08 - 08:06 pm Comment from: R

The iPhone is a phone with some unique capabilities. It's a phone. With capabilities. A phone. A phone. A Phone.

When I'm traveling to new cities on foot, I don't want a laptop. I want a phone with capabilities. Of course a laptop has more capabilities-- it's not a phone.

See where I'm going with this, Mac Maniac? They are not the same thing. Your rebuttal about your SUV really makes no sense. You could fit a desktop in an SUV, too-- maybe even a nice mainframe computer, definitely a rack. That would have more power than a laptop and you could tow a trailer.

I guess laptops suck, sorry.

Feb 25, 08 - 08:16 pm Comment from: Big Al

Why buy what you can't see.

It's just as stupid as buying what you can't hear.

If a digital audio file contains only the sound a human ear can hear then it's more than good enough, it's all you need.

Likewise, if a digital video file contains all the data you can see at 10 feet from your HDTV than it's more than good enough, it's all you need.

Don't be suckered into another round of media replacement. DRM free digital files will meet all of your needs. Don't support any other media.

Feb 25, 08 - 08:16 pm Comment from: January 24, 1984

Easy predictions:

A.
B.
C.

Very hard to do.

Feb 25, 08 - 08:33 pm Comment from: MacMental

Blu-Ray will be an option when they release the new MacBook Pros. Wait for it.

Feb 25, 08 - 08:36 pm Comment from: VintageNet

Mac Maniac

I'm writing this on my iPhone while walking through the city without my laptop. The iPhone is the best PHONE ever created! You're an idiot.

Feb 25, 08 - 08:41 pm Comment from: To Mac Maniac

"So basically the iPhone was only good for cities or other places where walking and carrying a laptop case would be a chore."

Agreed! Cities and other places (such as the country and the seabed). Those are the only places where an iPhone is useful smile

Everywhere else--the places where walking while carrying a laptop every moment of your life actually makes SENSE--the iPhone is indeed a "functionally failure."

But you are wrong about JavaScript. The iPhone runs JavaScript just great right out of the box, no hacks needed.

Check, mate.

Feb 25, 08 - 08:51 pm Comment from: Name

Optical media will be dead by 2010. The only macs that will get bluray will be in the pro line because as "pro machines" they need to have everything and the kitchen sink. Apple tv shows were Apple inc is really going. The internet will to do hd content what it did to music. Just wait. With the exception of illegal downloads Apple will be the gatekeeper. Everything from the iPod killing cds to the Macbook air is just the slow death of physical media unfolding before our eyes. MacdailyNews is right. Shiny spinning disks are the past.

Feb 25, 08 - 09:03 pm Comment from: NewYorkRules

Speaking of "Time,"
WHERE IS TIME CAPSULE???????

Feb 25, 08 - 09:04 pm Comment from: NewYorkRules

PS - PLEASE tell me Apple hasn't factored the leap year into this ...!

Feb 25, 08 - 09:37 pm Comment from: Spark

Blu Ray is great for the movies you want to keep, and right now Apple certainly doesn't have enough content to compete with established rental firms. BUT... some of the comments here, and even the article itself, seem to believe that both Apple and technology in general are standing still. No, TV can't deliver full 1080p and 7.1 sound...yet. But you can't believe that the capabilities won't be updated within the next year; this is the same hardware that they introduced more than a year ago. You also can't expect that content to rent (and maybe buy) from Apple won't get better as broadband improves. A lot of common broadband is challenged by 720p HD downloads. That is not an Apple issue. My TV can only do 720p or 1080i, and my sound system is still only 5.1 anyway, and I am ahead of the curve for most Americans. I'd be willing to bet that the current TV is perfectly adequate for 90% of current home setups. Really, the main reason to continue with hard media (be current DVD or Blu Ray) is the extras that come on the disc that are not supplied by downloaded rentals. I really enjoy listening to commentaries, especially when done by the director of the film. That why most of my rentals will still be on disc, but I am more than thrilled by the convenience of choosing a movie to watch when the desire hits me at midnight. We are rapidly getting to the point where I can cut the cord on my cable subscription. And, once again, TV does NOT begin and end with movie rentals. That is just one of its many tricks.

Feb 25, 08 - 09:39 pm Comment from: Spark

@MacDaddy: ditto
@ R : ditto

Feb 25, 08 - 09:45 pm Comment from: Ashan McNealy

iPhone does run Javascript, silly.

Maybe you were thinking about Flash support? That will be added via software update soon anyway, so the point is moot.

Now let me ask you this.

How fast can you type with your full size keyboard when you're standing up, or walking somewhere, and you're holding it up with one hand? Oh, you can't do that at all? Silly rabbit, tricks are for kids! Laptops are great, but they cannot substitute the functionality of mobile smart-phones. And wifi is getting pretty ubiquitous, which means no need for 2.5G data access.

Feb 25, 08 - 09:46 pm Comment from: Shogun

Re: Tiny iPhone Links

If you touch and hold on a link a window pops up to tell you what the link is. Of course you can also zoom first. iPhone rules.

Feb 25, 08 - 09:51 pm Comment from: Mister Snitch

You're offbase about Blu-Ray, and what you assume will be on it. Interactive games and video will be on it. These will mainly be porn, instruction and training, and games. They will contain an interactive component requiring the 'net, but most of the material will be on the disk. Because with interactivity, many choices must be offered, and the files will therefore be quite large. They will also need to be immediately available, for a seamless experience.

Yeah, Apple wants to be diskless. They also want to be portless. They did what they could with the Air, and STILL could not eliminate all the ports. You can lead customers only so far, and in the end you have to be sure to give them what they NEED or they won't buy the product. Blu-ray, if developed properly, will be a need.

Feb 25, 08 - 11:33 pm Comment from: TowerTone

I was just about to write a rebuttal to Mac Maniac, but my laptop rang and I had to run out to my SUV and answer it....

Feb 25, 08 - 11:40 pm Comment from: Name

@Mister snitch

People will download hd content (legally or not). If anyone is going to buy dvds /blu-ray discs it will be to rip them to a hard drive (something people are already doing with bluray discs- check any torrent site for proof) using an external optical drive. Hollywood will raise hell about it, but it'll be their fault for not listening to Steve Jobs.

A computer without ports? A completely wireless world is certainly attractive, and it's where we're headed. I'm waiting for someone to come out with a small high capacity WIFI flash drive powered by 1.5 volt battery. Although it'll probably be redundant because people will keep everything on their computers or backup all their data online (partly at least). Right now the only thing most people I know really need in a computer is a usb port, wifi, and a large capacity drive. An optical drive is only really needed for installing an operating system. Dvds are going the way of cds, and the same goes for bluray.

Also, who the hell wants to backup data by burning it to a disk no matter how high the capacity? It boggles my mind.
You have to erase and burn stuff every time you want to add something new. Also even a bluray disc will not function if it's scratched enough. A decent hard drive will function for years if it's only drop kicked once every other day. Burned dvds can go bad in months, and the same may be true for bluray discs (although the time period may be years). Flash is the future, and flash drives will replace hard drives before 2011. Holographic storage is also in the works and you can expect it to hit the consumer market around 2012-2013 in north america.

Want to know one thing that's certain about the future: forget moving parts. Sorry old people, but that means physical media dies. It started dieing around the time the iPod killed cds. Don't worry, you'll get used to it.

Feb 25, 08 - 11:45 pm Comment from: Alex

Spark is right. Most people own SD TVs, so they would see no benefit from a 1080p file. For that matter, most people with HDTVs wouldn't be able to tell the difference between a 720p, 1080i or 1080p picture. Why buy Blu-Ray when I can get a nice upconverting DVD player for under $100? Equipment is about 1/3 the cost and the media is less than half.

Most people who jump into digital files and/or HDTVs are going to do it piecemeal. 720p HDTV (because it's the cheapest one at Target) their 2 year-old DVD player, stereo system they bought in college in the mid-90s, so-on and so forth.

AppleTV doesn't need to be 1080p (although it can upconvert to it) because people don't need it yet. I'm sure in future iterations, as HD equipment and content become cheaper/more readily available that situation will change.

That time isn't now or even in the next couple years.

Remember when the first iMac came with no floppy? It was what, another 5 or 6 years before you saw PCs eliminate the floppy on a mass-market scale.

Feb 26, 08 - 12:18 am Comment from: MacVenom

I can't believe it??? Are you serious MacManiac? How can you call yourself a macmaniac?

I payed four times as much for my macbook and if I could only keep one of them, it would be my iPhone hands down. The only thing I can't do that I can think of on my iPhone is download and upload saved content, and copy and paste. I live in a small town and I get fast internet everywhere! I love the iPhone and think it is the greatest... I could go on... but I won't.

Good comment towertone!!!

Feb 26, 08 - 02:25 am Comment from: @mac maniac

Please sit down and think before posting crap.

The iPhone doesnt suck, you frickin idiot.

It is as tiresome to read crap as it is to have to use Windows XP, which I did tonight when a friend asked me to fix his Compaq Suckario craptop.

He asked me if I could put the Mac OS on it for him, and I had to tell him no.

So, I tried to get the thing going, but it all came back - the mind-numbing STUPIDITY of frickin windows shitware.
My wife and kids asked me why I was yelling at a laptop (we all have Macs).

Its hard to believe that anyone could be so fuc*ing dumb/numb/brainwashed/unhinged as to use windows.

I may loan the poor guy the cash to get a used MacBook tomorrow.

So mac maniac, if you dont like the iPhone, go and use windows - you'll LOVE it!

You probably think 911 was down to a bunch of guys living in a cave in Afghanistan, who learned to fly Cessnas for a week.....

Yes, my patience with windows and silly people is all used up.

Feb 26, 08 - 02:27 am Comment from: flappo

we all used to have loads of lps , then cds or tapes cluttering up our rooms

now we have itunes - all in one box

we all used to have vhs tapes , laserdiscs , dvds then blurays

now we have apple tv - all in one box

i see NO reason why apple shouldn't dominate the movie world just as they have the music world

most peeps want instant gratification as cheaply and easily as possible after a hard day at work etc

let me think , trawl round the video shops in the vain hope of finding a rental or bargain or flop on my couch and use my apple tv on my new hd tv ?

it's a no brainer

welcome to the future , an apple future

Feb 26, 08 - 02:29 am Comment from: flappo

@alex

good luck in finding a new tv that's sd

all tv's nowadays are hd ready

ie; appletv ready

Feb 26, 08 - 03:02 am Comment from: almux

There will be LOTS (an lots) of WORK burned on BR. There will be the NEED for those flat disks storage yet for number of years to go...
Once again: BR is NOT ONLY meant for movies, games or just blank entertainement.

Feb 26, 08 - 03:17 am Comment from: nobodi

"Shiny spinning plastic discs are the past, not the future."

Just keep repeating that to yourself as time goes on.

Maybe someday it will come true, but not anytime soon. Certainly nowhere near 2010 if the big ISPs have anything to say about.

In another thread someone mention replacement and displacement technologies and how the automobile represented replacement technology because cars replaced horse and buggy technology.

Except that, while cars did replace horse and buggies for general transportation purposes, the horse industry didn't disappear at all. Did you know that the horse industry does more business today than a number of, shall we say, more contemporary industries... combined?

Did you know that horse businesses today are far bigger than than when cars first appeared, and that there may be far more horses today than during the 1890's?

Feb 26, 08 - 04:06 am Comment from: fenman

I get totally frustrated by all the claptrap about "shiny spinning discs" being a thing of the past.

No way.

Several actors get in the way.

First of all a basic distrust on the part of people to give up power and capability. Not so many years ago the NC (Network computer) with no local storage and all software centrally served) was supposed to replace the PC. It failed dismally despite being backed by what was then the two biggest tech companies in the world, Microsoft and Oracle. One of the few times that Gates and Ellison have agreed. But it failed, why, the infrastructure could not cope and people did not want to give back power and capability they had.

Secondly, the underlying infrastructure cannot support it. Yes a few places in the US probably could but shock horror, the world is a lot bigger than the US. As I have travelled to large parts of the globe where US influence is very little I can assure you that there is more money out there (although spread thinner), more people, and less infrastructure able to cope with these utopian dreams of unlimited downloads.

Third add on the political scene where the ISP's want to throttle the internet for domestic customers and ramp up for corporates. Yes I believe this will fail in the short term but with bills already being proposed to Congress and the big corporates having a strong lobby group while the general population has only one vote every 4 years, it is only a matter of time.

Now take a brief look at some facts.

I have a collection of over 700 DVD's. If they were all Blu Ray (which they are not as many pre date BR) at an average content (with extras) of say 40 Gb each, that is a storage requirement of 28 Terabytes. I also know that I am not the only person with such a collection and that many people have a lot more.

Now extrapolate - it is all very well to say that in the future downloadable HD will reach Blu Ray quality, but take say the 200,000 titles currently available on regular DVD, that equates to about 8 Exabytes of storage that Apple would need. I am assuming that the compression would offset the indexing and retrieval storage needs.

I am sure that the day will come but it is a very long way off. We need some totally new storage technology and communication infrastructure technology invented first to make it feasible.

Feb 26, 08 - 06:04 am Comment from: flappo

if that's true - explain the success of itunes vs tower records etc closing down ?

Feb 26, 08 - 06:08 am Comment from: flappo

you don't need blu ray quality , believe me

unless your screen is above 46 inches 720p is more than sufficient for the average living room , i've got two bravia's a 40w2000 and a 40v3000 and 720p and 1080p look virtually identical , believe me ( gaming anyway )

1080p is a load of hyped up twaddle , unless you have a 50 inch screen or a projector that is

look at the ps3 and the 360 - all their games are in 720p and most of them look stunning

they either use their built in scalers or the tv's to get to the 1080 resolution

Feb 26, 08 - 08:12 am Comment from: ralph from berlin

ok macdaddy, something new to whine about:

the iphone: best phone on the planet, but apple doesn't want to sell it. it is only available in 4 countries after 8 month on the market. that is the slowest product introduction of all time me guess. seems to me the revenue-sharing model was a bit too much greed on the side of apple and now no new carriers want to come onboard.

p.s. 4 new movies today!

magic word: country as in "no new countries for the iphone"

Feb 26, 08 - 08:28 am Comment from: John Gee

Clearly Apple is counting on the full manifestation of the digital life as such:

Apple TV (no Blu ray...MAYBE an add on)
Desktop (that's where the Blu-Ray lives)
Laptop (some pros with Bluray perhaps....no Bluray in MacBooks.)
ultraportable (the device to come)
the phone

Why else would they invest in a feature that allows a laptop to borrow a desktop's hard drive....

Feb 26, 08 - 08:43 am Comment from: ?what?

i have a gfull size keyboard but i still szuck at typoing

Feb 26, 08 - 10:16 am Comment from: Cubert

Two years from now, Zune Tang will still be spouting his hilarious, subtle commentary.

Feb 26, 08 - 10:33 am Comment from: TexasAg03

Then I mentioned how tiny the screen is when he cursed himself as he hit a wrong link and had to wait a few minutes to get back to the previous page over a SLOW *#$%$# [my edit] 2G NETWORK.

It's never taken my iPhone "a few minutes" to go back a page on the EDGE network; I think you are exaggerating a bit. I bet you think a Vienna Sausage is 12" long, too...

Feb 26, 08 - 11:13 am Comment from: Petey

What a load of crap.

Some people have more time on their hands than sense.

Go and get a fucking job!

Feb 26, 08 - 05:01 pm Comment from: NewMac

I realize that many of you will disagree..

but Apple should work with Sony to roll out software for the PS3 that will allow it to access the Itune movie rentals.....

now before you jump on this...consider the following:

* You would have one device that could play Blu-Ray, Games and movie rentals.

* Sony would probably loosen rental restrictions covering their very large content library.

* Apple probably doesn't has thin margins on the aTV device anway...so letting Sony bear the hard costs for the rental service would be great.

Fire away!

Feb 26, 08 - 05:03 pm Comment from: NewMac

edited

* Apple probably has thin margins on the aTV device anyway...so letting Sony bear the hardware costs for the rental service would be great.

Feb 26, 08 - 09:54 pm Comment from: PS3 owner

@flappo

"look at the ps3 and the 360 - all their games are in 720p and most of them look stunning"

That's not true, you should check your facts

@ NewMac

"but Apple should work with Sony to roll out software for the PS3 that will allow it to access the Itune movie rentals....."

Why would Sony bother with Apple? They've already got 10m PS3s and 30m PSPs out there, that's a whole hell of a lot more than AppleTVs and iPhones.

Video rentals will come to the PS3 but the real war will be between Sony and Microsoft. Apple just doesn't have the install base. Besides Sony has the Cell processor which can run much more powerful decompression software the any Intel chip.

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