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Sat, Nov 21, 2009 - 08:55 AM EST  —  AAPL: 199.92 (-0.59, -0.29%)  |  NASDAQ: 2146.04 (-10.78, -0.5%)

Cody Willard: More earnings growth ahead for the Apple Inc. juggernaut
Saturday, July 11, 2009 - 11:08 AM EST

Mac mini closeout deals"Apple’s got about 1% of that global market share for cell phones right now. They’ve sold 10 to 20 million in the last year. Since the iPhone now has a price point of $99 — and since that same iPhone will likely be given away for free with a two-year AT&T service contract in another year or so — that means Apple’s could grow their market share even ten-fold from the 1% level it’s at today," Cody Willard blogs for MarketWatch.

"Model it out yourself, if you want. Getting the iPhone platform up to 10% market share in cell phones would mean 100 million units sold, even if the cell-phone market is to contract 5% more this year and next," Willard writes. "While the price point for the iPhone will continue to come down, the unit growth still will provide outright revenue growth for Apple. Component costs for the iPhone will come down too, and that means margins for Apple will expand. That means more earnings growth ahead for this juggernaut."

Willard writes, "We should note that either or both the new Chrome OS and the Android OS from Google will take market share from the other companies — except Apple, which you’ll remember has only 1% of the market — as the cell phone and netbooks converge. The PC marketplace is only about 300 million units a year, by the way, which is why cell phones and netbooks are so important for growth in tech in the new millenium."

"I wouldn’t buy either of these right now at these levels and expect to make any money in the near term. I’m much too bearish on the overall economy and markets for that. But I’d want to own a least a toehold of both of these. Otherwise, I’d wait for both of these stocks to come down," Willard writes. "But as I’ve told everyone about these two companies for years — these are as good as it gets in long-term investments."

Full article here.

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Jul 11, 09 - 10:32 am Comment from: macaholic

Again with the netbooks?
Oh brother!!

Jul 11, 09 - 11:06 am Comment from: disposableidentity

Netbooks indicate an important trend. The public dosen't really want a netbook, but that is all a lot of them are finding for sale right now. Most likely the netbook "demand" will ultimately be met by three distinct products. A full-function but ultra slim notebook (think of what the Air could become), a mobile phone/iPod device (really the iPhone has nailed this one), and a third form-factor that I can't picture yet, but probably a larger iPod/tablet (something a little more usable than an iPod for browsing the web and watching tv/video for the 90 percent of the population that dosen't really need, or want a "home computer".

Jul 11, 09 - 12:32 pm Comment from: random

I don't see the iPhone ever being a free give-away with a service contract. That would dilute the Apple brand and make it seem like another commodity product. That's not what Apple is about.

Jul 11, 09 - 12:40 pm Comment from: Arnold Ziffel

Speaking of iPhones, I love my new 3GS after having a 2G for the past two years. The increase in speed is immediately noticeable, and I am liking the metal volume and ring/silent switches better than the 2G's plastic ones. For some reason, it's easier to feel them and become oriented. Perhaps it's because metal is more conductive of heat than plastic. Regardless the reason, I like them better than the original controls.

I use a Griffin's Wave case, which is my favorite after trying others the past two years. The Griffin is strong, light, and highly tactile...not as much as a rubber case but enough to make it grippable.

Apple is well-positioned for continued success- no debt, tons of cash sitting in their banks, well-oiled manufacturing/supply processes in place, and fantastic products.

Go AAPL!

Jul 11, 09 - 01:11 pm Comment from: ElderNorm

Any analyist that spouts numbers, number, numbers (ie market share) is an idiot. Period

Its like they only know one kind of math. And we are seeing how well companies like HP and Dell are doing right now that focus on market share vs profit.....

Apple will do great but the share price is open for debate since its controlled by market drivers not related to company quality (greedy analyst and brokers that make money by panic buying and selling not by long term investments. )

PS, just look at Apple share over a two year period vs hourly. Period.

en

Long term buyer. grin even bought a few shares at 82.. grin

Jul 11, 09 - 02:27 pm Comment from: Hotcurry

@random

I think you will find the iPhone is already ready free on certain contracts 3G & 3GS

http://shop.o2.co.uk/promo/iphoneindex/Pay_Monthly/3G_S

but I may be not in the US yet

Jul 11, 09 - 04:39 pm Comment from: silverhawk

Should the iPhone be counted as a cell phone, against give away Nokia phones, or as a smart phone?

Jul 11, 09 - 10:12 pm Comment from: David

This blogger (not an analyst) says, "They’ve sold 10 to 20 million in the last year."
Why such a range in the numeric spread. Isn't this a published number that can be researched. He's just spouting and MDN has printed it, thereby giving him some hits this week. 10-20 million what a beansprout head.

Jul 12, 09 - 07:31 am Comment from: gzero

@random,

in Germany you can get a 16 GB iPhone 3GS for €1 Euro (about $1.39 at today's exchange rate). That's a helluva lot closer to free than $99.

Jul 12, 09 - 07:32 am Comment from: gzero

With 2-year contract, of course.

Jul 12, 09 - 05:58 pm Comment from: Rob

iPhone 3Gs is available off contract via Apple and on contract form 5 carriers here in Oz 8-) Choice!

Jul 16, 09 - 01:57 am Comment from: Ares

In short term, Apple will never decline.
wmv to mov on mac wmv to quicktime on mac wmv to mp4 on mac

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