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What is that guy smokin'?

Heh, crazy like a fox.

But yeah, from a marketing point of view it makes much more sense to give an older version such a Jaguar away than your next-to-current OS.

in 10 years we're gonna look back, and either Apple, Google, or MS is gonna be standing, and the other two are gonna be gone. Thank God for Steve Job's doctors, let's go Apple!

The biggest threat to Microsoft right now is Windows.

Apple certainly does things nobody expects - but seems to guard it's operating system closely since it is the essence of the "Mac Experience." Personally, I give the above idea about a 30% chance...

What a bizarre idea.

But I like it. Distribute the previous version of the OS for free. And have it run on standard Intel/PC hardware.

It's mad, but...it...might...just...work!

I was talking about iPods as bootable drives ages ago.. the only problem is that you would have to have your software on the iPod too..

That way all PCs are just thin clients.. dummies that 'become' your home computer

Things like Firewire speeds become very important...

His basic premise is right, but the OS X on iPod is way out there. No, the OS wars will re-ignite in earnest when Apple licenses its OS to other box makers. Which may never happen. In that case my prediction is that Apple will level off around 10% marketshare. Still not bad...

Leveraging a monopoly to prop up other divisions... interesting.. has it been done before?

Nope. I'd like to see the bridge Apple is probably setting up for their online movie store. For the movie store to work it needs to have a way to transfer the movies from computer to television. Currently the best guess would be to use the next gen iPod 5G which could possibly plug into another piece of hardware that is currently existing, or released by Apple. The problem with a piece of hardware released by Apple is that it will be harder to rope people into downloading the movies the same way they download music since the music doesn't require anything but the hardware you normally use. I'd rent movies to my computer if I could download them, it would be ever so convenient, but not very useful if I couldn't move to my tv in the living room easily, so yeah we shall see what's coming forth.

This idea, while interesting, is not going to happen. It would create too much confusion in the marketplace with multiple versions of OS X running around.

Microsoft continued to sell obsolete versions of Windows for years. Even after XP was shipping, you could still buy Windows 2000 in various permutations. There was an article recently on News.com that said there are millions of people still running on Windows 98. As a result, innovation occurs much more slowly in the Windows world when it comes to the OS.

In contrast, Apple has done everything to keep the masses moving forward. Whether you think it's a good policy or not, Apple continually introduces new technologies that are not supported by older versions of OS X. Just look at Tiger. What doesn't run on Panther and Jaguar?
Spotlight, Dashboard, and Safari 2.0, to name a few.

When you get into under-the-hood technologies like Quartz 2D, CoreImage, CoreVideo, CoreData, etc. then you start to realize that there is no way Steve Jobs would let Apple be held back by millions of unwashed PC users running Panther sans Tiger technologies. The scenario gets even more ridiculous if Apple is shipping Leopard with brand new technologies and features that people can only guess at, and Apple has to deal with possibly tens of millions of PC users running an even more obsolete Panther. PC users who hear about the great features of Leopard and end up wondering, "Hey, why is Spotlight so slow in Panther? I thought it was fast? And I thought Safari had RSS built-in?"

Sorry, Cringely, but this idea is totally wacko. Nice speculation, though.

Some of the pieces of the puzzle that could make this a reality are described by Neo in this article:

http://www.macsimumnews.com/index.php/archive/6665/

It's not just Apple here, it's IBM too -- and Intel.
Perfect Storm, Tsunami, whatever, microsoft could be hit by some big new trends in technology.

Cringely is more likely to be right than wrong on his scenario, except that we should be talking at disk drive based iPods; not the new flash based minis and shuffles, because flash ram is too slow to serve system and home folders efficiently in the soon to be announced flash based iPod minis.

As a follow-up, I think Apple would be much more effective porting key apps over to Windows, like it did with iTunes.

Consider what would happen if they made iLife for Windows. Since there is nothing equivalent on the Windows side with the features and the level of integration, Apple would make a killing, especially if it piggy-backed on iTunes' name recognition to get people to download and install the software.

Apple gets PC users hooked on iLife. When it comes time for a Windows user to replace the machine, they suddenly realize, "Hey, 80% of the software I use already comes free with a new Mac! Switching will be pretty painless after all!" In one stroke, Apple will have severely undercut the software argument.

This is the basis of the iPod halo effect. Windows users get used to the Apple experience, and when considering a switch, they have some comfort knowing that their iPod will work on that new Mac and iTunes is the same familiar piece of software. Except that as an incentive, the Mac versions always does more, better (iPod on the Mac supports things like address book syncing, for example).

With iLife for Windows, Apple has the potential to dramatically increase its software revenues while getting millions of Windows users to dump Microsoft software and regularly start using Apple software. The Switch becomes a trivial issue then.

iPod & video? Remember the iPod photo could display a slide show on a TV. So Apple already knows how to connect iPods to TV's. So the iPod as DVR with DRM isn't too far fetched. No need to bring the computer to the TV, just your already protable iPod.

--------

Jaguar was still a work in progress

Panther was "a very fine operating system"

Printing in jaguar was a sometimes iffy proposition. As we all know, if it's not written down, it doesn't exist. And "written down" really means printed on paper, and just as likely, photocopied numerous times.

But Panther on a generic PC? Sure, that'd be great! But I'm not holding my breath.

Zero chance.
Boy, Cringely hasn't called one right in a LOOONG time. Maybe he should just pack it in...
Jake

Is Cringely talking about the same Apple that is iPod dependent, with a limited enterprise strategy, minimal presence in business, just lost the deal of a lifetime with Henrico schools, ya da, ya da, ya da...if so then he'd better get his meds changed asap.

The best part of this is that Google distracts Microsoft, just as Linux has. Microsoft doesnt consider Apple a serious competitor, and that's fine, but remember even increases in marketshare by one percentage point at a time is huge money for Apple and a big loss for M$. This is going to get real interesting in the next few years.

Apple doesn't have to replace every PC, all they have to do is just increase the margin to about 30%. That would be a large enough market that no one would or could ignore it. Macs would suddenly have even more software titles, most would be crap, and more product support.

Windows would not be as relevant.

NewType

The problem with porting the iLife apps to the windows side is that unlike iTunes, they are MUCH more complex, CPU intensive, and may not support the huge base of peripherals, iTUnes really only works with iPod variants, but start having windows people working with iMovie and iDVD and you'll have probably be getting suuport calls galore on incompatabilities

NewType:

iLife for Windows: great idea. iPod halo effect to iLife halo effect.

Zero chance.
Boy, Cringely hasn't called one right in a LOOONG time. Maybe he should just pack it in...
Jake

-----

Check again, he called the Mac mini and he outlined the reasons for announcing the switch to Intel (a trick that would let hackers do an x86 version) long before Dvorak came up with the idea.. and look what's happening..

Pack it in? You are out to lunch

M$ doesn't consider Apple a threat because half of all MacIntel systems will still be sold with a Windows license in the form of either dual-booting or Virtual PC.

NewType:

iLife for Windows: great idea. iPod halo effect to iLife halo effect.

---

These aren't great ideas.. sheesh.. doing Mac only software for Windows... gah! talk about one less reason to buy Mac hardware (Apple is a vertically integrated hardware company)

iLife is already integrated into the OS, doing a Windows version would be subpar on so many levels, and kill an excellent Mac-only talking point

Dave wrote: "The problem with porting the iLife apps to the windows side is that unlike iTunes, they are MUCH more complex, CPU intensive, and may not support the huge base of peripherals."

Dave, this is a legitimate argument. But note that these were the same arguments used within Apple by the camp that was against porting iTunes to Windows. Whether or not Apple should fully support iPod on Windows by porting iTunes was a seriously contentious issue within Apple.

As it turned out, it was the most brilliant move Apple made in the last 5 years. Apple went from selling a hundred thousand iPods per quarter to selling millions of iPods per quarter in about a year. The only reason the halo effect exists today is the simple fact that Jobs made the call to port iTunes (remember "Hell has frozen over?")

By now, Apple has built up a considerable amount of experience with Windows programming, as they successfully maintained version consistency from iTunes 4.0 to 4.9 for both Mac and Windows.

With iLife, Apple could further reduced complexity by only supporting XP. Apple got a lot of criticism for making iTunes run only on XP and 2000, but cutting Win2K out will greatly reduce complexity.

Mike wrote: "gah! talk about one less reason to buy Mac hardware (Apple is a vertically integrated hardware company)"

Again, this was the argument against porting iTunes for Windows. But contrary to conventional wisdom, Apple software running on Windows increases the likelihood of a switch happening.

A typical Windows user with an iPod is using iTunes and a host of other non-Apple apps. When that user considers a switch, he thinks, "Well, at least my iTunes and iPod will run the same on the Mac. But I have all this other Windows software to worry about."

Sometimes, the user decides to make the jump, but it's clear the mass of non-Apple Windows software is a big disincentive to making the Switch.

Now consider that typical Windows user with an iPod who also uses iLife. Suddenly, it's likely that 80% of his app use comes from Apple apps. A switch to the Mac becomes trivial step rather than a big leap.

Readers of MDN know that there is still no equivalent of iLife on the Windows side. For $79, Apple would make a killing in direct software sales. When those Windows PCs reach the end of their lives, their owners will realize that 80% of all the software they've been using comes free with a new Mac. Instead of the halo effect resulting in 10% of iPod-owning Windows users making the Switch, you'll see far greater number of users making the jump.

As for preserving the Mac advantage, it still would exist. iLife on the Mac would support technologies like Spotlight, CoreImage, and CoreVideo, whereas iLife for Windows would be more "conventional." Pro apps like Final Cut Pro and Motion would remain Mac only.

But just as iTunes for Windows opened up the spigot to full, iLife for Windows would be the equivalent of opening up the floodgates.

I also don't have to mention that even if Apple ports iLife to Windows, the biggest advantage to switching to the Mac remains unchanged, i.e. Mac OS X.

Except when a Windows users begins to count the apps that he uses ("Let's see, iTunes, iPhoto, iMovie, iDVD....."), that user will discover all that software will come free with his new Mac, and he already knows how to use them. Except he doesn't have to deal with viruses, spyware, and paying the anti-virus software tax.

Wow. That would be so awesome. 10.5 on an iVideoPod for free. MS wouldn't stand a chance. Talk about a Trojan horse.

I'm still waiting for "Home on iPod", that feature that was pulled from Panther that would've let you carry your Mac desktop in your pocket.

Actually, that would be a killer feature Apple could add for both Mac and Windows. I guess the potential for piracy has kept it in the "too hard" basket.

"M$ doesn't consider Apple a threat because half of all MacIntel systems will still be sold with a Windows license in the form of either dual-booting or Virtual PC."

I have a couple of friends who'll only now consider a Mac because it will also run Windows. But both admit they'll hardly ever boot into Windows - they just like to know it's there as a security blanket (hmmm, maybe not the best choice of words).

Mike wrote: "gah! talk about one less reason to buy Mac hardware (Apple is a vertically integrated hardware company)"

Again, this was the argument against porting iTunes for Windows. But contrary to conventional wisdom, Apple software running on Windows increases the likelihood of a switch happening.

Apple answered that question by stating the iPod would no longer be used as a Switch draw...rather, and profit center unto itself.

The idea of getting people to buy Macs after installing iTunes for Windows, buying an Apple iPod, is having your cake and eat it too.

In other words, originally the iPod (iTunes' raison d'être) was a Switch mechanism, but Apple saw the profit potential and started developing iTunes for Windows.


Therefore, unless you think Apple is raking it in selling photographs in iPhoto, there is no point to porting to Windows (okay, iLife revenues).. I think it does more harm than good.

You can't exactly claim your OS is 5 years ahead, and yet, are able to write the exact same bundle of software for both OSes.

More realistic idea of this is Apple will make the long rumored "Home on iPod" a reality. Once they release OSX on x86, you will be able to sync your Home folder on your iPod to both your PC and Mac. Once this happens, say goodbye to MS!

MDN Magic Word: through - as in M$ is through, over and out

I dunno, it might work but you do realize that a sizable portion of windozers are still on Windows 98, don't you. A lot of of them are the ones that will do almost anything to try and not spend a buck. Give em Jaguar for free and they will be on Jaguar forever. AND they will never have to buy a Mac. Interesting, out of the box thinking but I think there are WAY too many variables involved for this ever to become reality.

justified:

The biggest threat to Microsoft right now is Windows.

It's not often that I actually laugh out loud, but your statement made me do just that.

Sorry to put a damper on theis OS Xon iPod idea, but Apple DOES NOT RECOMMEND putting an OS on iPods, because they overheat VERY quickly.

When using the iPod as a music player, you'll probably know that it spins the HD, gets the info it needs and then spins it down again. For OS X to run it would have to be spinning all the time and that would very quickly wreck your beloved iPod.

Good idea, but it's not gonna happen.

Well, probably noone will read this this now but what the hell...

It's an interesting idea, but it's still aimed at CONSUMERS....for Apple to massively increase their market share, they need to get big companies locked in. That means first and foresmost we need Mac versions of the ERP suites like SAP, Peoplesoft, Siebel etc and we need companies to buy into these big system implementations...

This is huge and risky corporate change, more fromm the size and impact on productivity from the inevitable f*ups business analysts and developers make, even when transitioning between Windows systems. But if a few compaines changed over and showed how it could be done, it could start a domino effect...

I think the whole ecosystem of Windows only applications would definitely start to change overnight.

Ubnfortunately, there's a lot of work to be done, and Bill can still sleep soundly...

thanks Jamie for that.. it does sound dangerous, now that you mention it.

Why does it need the iPod anyway - make it an iTunes download and let em burn the DVD. Make sure that this free 'old os' version of OS X carries an obligatory introduction advertising/selling iLife et al...

One question I have is this...will there need to be the awful Windows type phenomena of Drivers for all the ad-ons like printers and portable drives etc etc.?

On the Apple will lose hardware sales front..this is absolutre nonsense. I'd bet my (attractive) wife and my house on there being a MASSIVE increase in Apple hardware sales. There is no possible way that Windows users would switch to OS X and later stay with Dell/HP et al. Vast numbers would want to swtich to the real thing - Apple hardware.

Said before and said it again. Times are a changin' big time for Apple.

I pray that Apple will license OS X for the intel boxes. It would be like dropping a hydrogen bomb on M$.
A lot of people that I talk with don't know they have a choice; they think that Windows is all there is and they have to put up with a crummy, insecure OS and apps.
We'll just have to see how things shake out though….

Apple is the biggest threat and compliment to Microsoft. I mean, Apple is the basis for Microsoft's R&D;, without that, Microsoft would have to create and invent things on its own.

What the hell is GOOGLE? Search right? Stupid names like GOOGLE and YAHOO will never sustain success. By the way, Steve Balmer is a YAHOO and Bill Gates is a GOOGLE HEAD! Ok, I feel better now

iMaki.. of course, the truth is the exact opposite of what you said, since using REAL WORDS means fighting dictionary definitions (confusion) brand names that don't really have clear definitions (made up words too) work best.

You already know what a Google is. Yahoo was an ACRONYM for Yet Another Hierarchically Organizaed O_______ (anyone know the last one?)

Then again, the wink lets you sit on the fence.

Jamie, is this for real, or FUD? iPods are also external hard drives, and people transfer gigs of data with them now, with no heat problems that I've heard of. Do you have any references or links?

Apple is nothing like Microsoft; they are NOT in competition!!!
Apple sells HARDWARE!
Apple sells the BEST hardware because Apple also makes the software to operate is hardware.
Apple designs their hardware from their own imaginations, not some photocopied circuit boards in a fancy case, thus Apple's new Intel-based Mac will have NOTHING in common with existing Intel boxes from the Dull-Dell factory.
Apple has ALWAYS produced hardware that was subliminal in the user's experience, with newer generations always producing awe and amazement to the computer industry. This will continue to hold true.
Just because Apple's new Porsche uses an internal combustion engine doesn't mean that it will be anything like the Ford everyone seems to be driving.

And they say Apple is a cult. The Intel cult seems to be very desperate for a new pedestal for their god which currently resides on a MS pedestal weaken by the onslaught of worms, and they think Apple will be their salvation to raising their god higher than before. Bad news, boys, you're in the wrong temple. Besides, the god you pray to is an old and inefficient one. If you visit Temple Apple, you will see a completely different god and a congregation with absolutely no interest in building you a strong pedestal for such a weak god.

Apple and Google should get married. Then MS will slowly fade away.

Mike B from Italy... Apple didn't always make great hardware. Especially during the dark days before the return of St. Steven.

Kiosk Computing? Think about it. We all carry our hard drive and drop it in a kiosk computer and boot up!

For now, it looks like Apple switches to Intel. Hopefully, years from now, it will look like Intel switched to Apple. I am sure Intel made a very wise decision to welcome OS X to their CPU. Just in case Windows Vista becomes the next Copland (a Mac OS project that Apple killed), the Intel dual-core CPU still has a stable, virus-free OS to run instead of wasting clock cycles on Windows spyware. AMD should talk to Steve ASAP, if they have not already done that. Don't depend on only one OS developer to sell your chips, because if that OS developer goes down, your chips come along for the ride. By the way, Linspire (previously Lindows) comes with a sticker "Powered by Linspire." Apple should make a similar sticker for all those Intel boxes that will run their OS...if they ever allow Mac OS X to run on non-Apple systems. Those Microsoft and Intel engineers better switch to Apple if Vista is a flop.