Cringely’s 2006 predictions for Apple and why many products were held back from Macworld

“Apple will eventually announce all the products they were supposed to have announced at this week’s MacWorld show, but didn’t, including a bunch of media content deals, a huge expansion of .Mac to one TERABYTE per month of download capacity per user, a new version of the Front Row DVR application, and two new Intel Macs with huge plasma displays, but with keyboards and mice as options — literally big-screen TVs that just happen to be computers, too,” Robert X. Cringely writes for PBS.

“The reason Apple changed its MacWorld announcements at the last minute was because the company sued little Burst.com a few days before, trying to invalidate the Burst patents. But since Apple sued Burst, Burst shares have gone UP by 30 percent. The market is rarely wrong. Suing Burst was an enormous mistake for Apple, casting a pall on their video strategy and potentially costing the company strategic alliances with networks and movie studios. Apple realizes this now and is struggling internally to find a way to change course and put a positive spin on the course correction. Apple will lose and Burst will win, and Apple won’t be able to afford to wait for the courts to decide anything, since time is critical in staking out Internet video turf. I predict that Apple will eventually take a license from Burst, that is UNLESS SOME OTHER COMPANY (Google? Real? Yahoo?) doesn’t snatch up Burst first,” Cringely writes.

“Apple WILL make some inroads against Microsoft. The new Intel Macs will run Windows XP unofficially, and Apple Support acknowledges that they are only days from running XP officially, too. So Apple finally has a solid argument why Windows-centric companies and homes should consider trying a Mac. The best case, though, says that Apple sells an additional million units, which aren’t enough for Steve Jobs, so I see him going into a kind of stealth competition with Microsoft,” Cringely writes. “Here’s how I believe it will work. Apple won’t offer versions of OS X for generic Intel hardware because the drivers and the support obligation would be too huge. But just as you can buy a shrink-wrapped copy of 10.4 for your iMac, they’ll gladly sell you a shrink-wrapped Intel version intended for an Intel Mac, but of course YOU CAN PUT IT ON ANY MACHINE YOU LIKE. The key here is to offer no guarantees and only limited support, patterned on the kind you get for most Open Source packages — a web site, forums, download section. and a wiki. Apple will help users help themselves. With two to three engineers and some outreach to hackers and hardware makers, Apple could put together an unofficial program that could easily attract two to three million Windows users per year to migrate their old machines to the new OS.”

Much more, with many more predictions and a good read in the full article here.

Advertisements:
Get Free Shipping on Top-Rated iPod and Mac Accessories
The New iPod with Video. The ultimate music & video experience on the go. From $299. Free shipping.
Connect iPod to your television set with the iPod AV Cable. Just $19.00.
The New iMac G5. Built-in camera and remote control. From $1299. Free shipping.
Apple USB Modem. Easily connect to the Internet using your dial-up service. $49.00.

Related articles:
Report: key products missing from Steve Jobs’ Macworld keynote due to Intel Core Duo supply issues – January 12, 2006
Burst.com plans countersuit against Apple alleging iPod, iTunes patent infringement – January 06, 2006
Apple Computer sues Burst after negotiations over iTunes, iPod patent licenses breakdown – January 06, 2006
Is Steve Jobs prepping ‘The Cupertino Project’ – Intel-based Macs that will run Windows apps, too? – December 27, 2005

34 Comments

  1. “The new Intel Macs will run Windows XP unofficially, and Apple Support acknowledges that they are only days from running XP officially, too.”

    That’s the first I’ve heard of this. Interesting.

  2. Told you guys so, (that Apple HAD to hold stuff back due to the Burst lawsuit) in a previous post a couple of days ago. There was just way too much missing from this much hyped MWSF. I expect the suit to get settled (if Apple is smart) and a ton of goodness to come forth from Apple this year.

  3. According to NASDAQ, you can buy Burst for around $26 million.

    I say: buy out their venture capital backing with Apple “paper”, nothing talks like money especially money that grows.

  4. I suppose Apple would buy Burst if they wanted too, but somewhere in Apple someone said Burst was full of crap and Apple decided to fight. Perhaps Apple has prior art to invalidate the patent? Who knows….

  5. some nameless idiot said:

    See how patents improve all of our lives and spur innovation?

    Just because someone thought of something ahead of Apple does not make the patent system wrong – grow up

  6. I think there is a lot of crediblity to the Burst thing and why Apple most likely held up lots of products and news at MacWorld.
    The last minute lawsuit before the start was obviously a result of Steve throwing a hissy fit -“Sue ’em! Sue ’em!!! They are ruining my grand presentation at MacWorld!!!”

    I am guessing the minimac was held back along with a new video iPod (screen going horizontally along iPod), & iPhone (which could show movies and stuff).

    —-
    Wonder why no press people are not getting an interview from the Burst people in regards to this?

  7. “See how patents improve all of our lives and spur innovation?

    Just because someone thought of something ahead of Apple does not make the patent system wrong – grow up”

    How does that refute my assertion?

    “some nameless idiot said”

    Ha. You are just all kinds of stupid, aintchya?

  8. “Somehow I think that if The Steve were to drop a few hundred million on Burst’s doorstep, its owners might reconsider their “not for sale” stance.”

    Well, that’s the point of Apple’s dispute. If they can avoid wasting that money then they should.

  9. But not if it means giving Microsoft or Google a chance to grab those patents. If Apple snatches up Burst, they’ll certainly make their money back by licensing the IP.

    Yes friends, this is the reason software & business method patents suck. Write to your congressperson.
    Not likely that Senator Disney and Representative Sony are going to care what you say, though.

  10. “But not if it means giving Microsoft or Google a chance to grab those patents.”

    And that’s the risk Apple is taking. Evidently, they think it’s worth it. Time will tell.

    Actually, I would be of the same mind as you, were I in the situation. I think buying Burst would be viable. And I think the risk of not acting asap is a bit too much for my mettle given the numbers, market, and position. But I don’t have all the intel Apple has, so I reserve judgement on their decision.

    Nonetheless, if this is the reason Apple delayed certain product announcements, then I’m just bitter about the modern application of patent law for the sake of my consumer impulses.

  11. Burst just settled a dispute with MS over hte summer ot the tune of $60 mill for some reason I don’t think $100 mill would really give them any incentive to sell. Plus if it were just as simple as buying them to shut them up why didn’t MS do that?

Reader Feedback

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.