MacDailyNews - Where Mac news comes first

Feb 23, 08 - 11:18 am Comment from: Jay-Z

I'm yearning for an alternative to cable. I HATE Time Warner in New York, and there are some shows I like to watch live, so I don't want to rely on BitTorrent to just download them. I would love to be able to download HD shows from iTunes if they were available.

Feb 23, 08 - 11:25 am Comment from: Macintosh

I have rented a few movies. No complaints regarding speed here. It takes maybe 30 seconds before I can start watching. But usually I am aware I want to watch a movie well before I sit down and watch it, so it's half done or more before I hit play.

I rented one to watch in a hotel recently, on my Mac, not Apple TV. It was crappy wifi from the hotel, and it still started playing in 30 seconds or so.

Written on my iPhone while on the toilet.

The Blu-Ray vs HD-DVD battle took too long. They were to preoccupied to see the likes of AppleTV getting a foothold.

Sorry big media, disks are obsolete.

Feb 23, 08 - 11:35 am Comment from: MikeK

For most people with a standard 1.5 to 3.0 broadband service, SD movies will begin playing from Apple TV within several minutes.. However, HD files can take 3-5 hours.

As long as the FCC and legislators stay in the pockets of the telecom companies the kind of broadband required for the transfer of HD video content is going to be a dream for most Americans. It is 2008 and I live in Seattle and I cannot get fiber-optic broadband. There are some neighborhoods downtown where cable isn't even available. The telecoms have a strangle-hold on everything lest a penny might not fall into their pockets. And governments are hopelessly inept on this issue. Maybe the Swedes and the South Koreans will be skipping the blu-ray experience. But many Americans will be buying DVD and BRD movies well into the next decade.

Are they kidding?!? What is the percentage of current US households with broadband fast enough to do this? 1% or less?

Until virtually everyone has at least 10-20Mbps broadband, plus huge multi-terabyte hard drives to store of all this material on, downloads will never even come close to threatening Blu-ray. We're talking 5-10 years down the road from now at least.

You got style. Plucking away a response in the middleof a logging operation! Watered my eyes! Log on brother.

Crap article. Women should not write about technology.

@Macintosh

Glad you didn't poo poo the article!

Feb 23, 08 - 11:53 am Comment from: Hm...

After the giveaways to the bandwidth providers by Congress for the last decade, what we have is a disgrace. Compare US connectivity to the EU and to Korea, Japan, &c; they are an order of magnitude ahead of the US. Many places in Japan have 100mb speeds as the norm, while the typical US user is lucky to see 2mb. So Blu-ray has nothing to worry about for the next decade.

Is she any relation to Ogg Vorbis?

Feb 23, 08 - 11:59 am Comment from: It's About Time

The future direction of Disc vs Download lies in the hands of whoever controls bandwidth.

Simple equations - Increase speed and allow large downloads = Cable. Limit bandwidth (or charge excessively for it) and no speed improvement = Disc.

my apple tv does just fine over an old g type wifi router. I started to watch F4-SS in HD in about 2 minutes after purchase. the disrupted industries should be very afraid. the movie moguls and rental guys are dead center in Apple inc.'s crosshairs.

I'm surprised nobody has thought about the possibility of just downloading a movie while you sleep.

Yeah, instant gratification for renting an HD movie over the innertubes is out of reach for most people. But not if you rent it a day or so ahead of when you want to watch it.

Think about it. I see iTunes has the new Coen brothers movie out, so I start to d/l it, knowing I won't have a chance to sit down for another day or two. By that time, my HD movie is 100% d/led and I don't sweat my relatively slow connection.

What I really want someone to work on, however, isn't movies but TV shows. Let me subscribe to 5-10 of my favorite shows, download them when my connection is normally idle so I can watch them whenever I want and I will be all over it like flies to honey.

What about those of us that want to watch all the extras and commentaries on a 5 disc set like Bladerunner? There is definitely a place for downloads. I have been watching HD movies for years through pay-per-view, but there are still many titles I buy because I need long term access. We are still talking about renting at this point with AppleTV, and like Stevie says about music subscriptions, people like to own, and I think this will be a split market for some time to come.

I hope you guys don't have anything against blu because it's here to stay. I'm a Mac power user and a blu fan.

Feb 23, 08 - 12:30 pm Comment from: DLMeyer

Tom Strong ... your name obviously refers to your back, not your brain. Lay off the steroids and the radical religious right services and try something enlightening. As sexist as you are, you and Pat Buchanon(sp?), you may never conclude that most women are pretty close to "as good as" most men in most things ... falling short in such essentials as lifting engine blocks with their teeth or writing their name in yellow in the snow ... but you might learn to shut your mouth when your true nature starts to show.

@Macintosh
Read on my iPhone while sitting on the toilet.

Feb 23, 08 - 12:32 pm Comment from: Cubert

A LOT of people are going to want to hang on to a tangible object. Blu-Ray will still be here and going strong 10 years from now. It's going to take a whole new generation of computer users (mainly under 30) to see download sales surpass physical sales.

Feb 23, 08 - 12:36 pm Comment from: Cubert

Erica Ogg should search far and wide for a guy to marry with the last name of Vorbis and then hyphenate her last name.

That would be sweeeeeet.

Anybody who thinks downloads look better than Blu-Ray doesn't have their HDTV set up right. No way a 5GB download is going to look better than a 50GB disc. Downloads might replace discs some time in the future, but definitely not soon.

Every tech generation is different. The VCR revolution was different than the DVD revolution that followed. LP records had different repercussions than cassette tapes that followed, and they were different than CDs. So, the story of Blu-Ray will be different than what came before.

However, most of the importance of Blu-Ray will be for storage. OK, we have faster delivery of big media files than ever before. But that means at least SOME of those file will be kept. Not all those movies zipping around the web will be rented. Where will they be kept? On hard drives. But hard drives break, and that breakage means the loss of greater and greater amounts of data. One could lose one's entire video collection.

There's a need to store data in a manner not prone to mechanical breakdowns. Tape is too slow and too unreliable. Blu-Ray is IT right now, it just has to arrive at the right capacity (at LEAST 30GB per disc, though more will always be desirable), with the right backup software (Time Machine seems like a good start) and of course at the right price (which seems inevitable).

Feb 23, 08 - 12:50 pm Comment from: Mr. Reeee

@ carson chang & Rob... You couldn't be more right.

While the government and cable industries are busy paying each other off, it'll be YEARS before there's sufficient bandwidth speed and coverage, to retire physical disks. The cable company monopolies were created to limit choice and maximize profit. The US and local governments... inflicted with rampant and limitless calcification, inertia, stasis, petty squabbling and greed... they were more than happy, or completely clueless, watched it and enabled it to happen.

Places like Korea, much of Europe, Japan are physically small with centralized village culture, so wiring the entire country up for fibre is not such a daunting task. Unfortunately, the United States has massive landmass and scattered population, with single-family homes widely spaced... except for perhaps the Northeast.

Plus, the wired infrastructure (the entire infrastructure) of the US is a mess. Renovation and restoration are far more costly than starting from scratch. That's why some of these supposed third-world countries are so far ahead technologically: they never built 19th century robber baron inspired infrastructures. They jumped from horse carts and head baskets straight to late 20th century technology.

We're choking on our own success.

Rob, I know its hard to fathom, but Apple found a way, I have no idea how, to make this work beautifully for anyone who has a dsl/cable connection. That's most people right now.

Feb 23, 08 - 01:06 pm Comment from: The Other Steve

If you mean by "downfall" a disastrous failure (like HD DVD) then Erica is wrong. (hey, words like "downfall" gets clicks)

Blue-ray will sell tons of players and discs . . . & make a nice profit.
But like newspapers, radio, and network TV (ABC, NBC, CBS) they will have to live with a bigger pie that has smaller slices.

Feb 23, 08 - 01:07 pm Comment from: Ampar

Tom Strong said."Women should not write about technology."

You are a misogynist asshole. Fsck off and go away.

Feb 23, 08 - 01:10 pm Comment from: The Other Steve

10 - 20 years from now?

Blue-ray just won't be big enough to hold my holodeck programs.

Feb 23, 08 - 01:11 pm Comment from: The Other Steve

"The biggest roadblock is of course bandwidth. . .But that will change"

Yes, but MDN will still load just a slow.

Feb 23, 08 - 01:12 pm Comment from: Mr. Reeee

People like to collect things: coins, stamps, CDs, videos, ex-girlfriends, cars, you name it. Downloads won't kill that any time soon.

Besides, Blu-ray just plain looks better!

People are replacing their old analogue TVs with HDTV. The price and SIZE of Full-HDTV has dropped quite a bit, just in the past year!

The model that replaced the 40" HDTV I bought last year, is almost $1000 cheaper, with better specs!

You can get a 32" Full-HD set for about $900. More and more 23"- 27" computer monitors are Full-HD and come with HDMI ports in addition to standard DVI/VGA ports... for around $400 and up (if you look around). AND they're double-duty.

Once people start seeing what these new monitors can do, they'll want better source material.

Watch something like a football or hockey game in HD, then watch the same thing in standard def. After a while you will seek out HD content. Pretty soon you'll demand it.

Upsampled DVDs can look pretty good (like anything from Criterion Collection), depending on who did the mastering. A Blu-ray player that also upsamples DVDs, will start to look pretty attractive.

Feb 23, 08 - 01:24 pm Comment from: VintageNet

I have $329 in Christmas Best Buy gift certificates that I am desperate to spend on an AppleTV, but Best Buy does not have any AppleTV units and are not scheduled to get anymore until March or April! What is going on with that?! Come on Apple get with it!!!!

I am so suprised that so many of the pundits miss the need for a simple, easy to use, removable storage media that can be used to archive critical data off site. Sure, online backup exists, but there are many of us who want something we can stick in a safety deposit box. Hard drives are getting cheaper, but they are not reliable enough in my opinion. Oh, how I wish Apple would include a Blu Ray recorder so I could back up more than 4.4Gb of data at a time!!!!!

@ Tom Strong

Why don't you move to Afghanistan where they hate women as much as you do. Better yet, change your name to Tom Weak or just plain Lame!

Feb 23, 08 - 01:40 pm Comment from: neomonkey

Is Tom Strong on to something?

"Mr. Wizard, I don't understand."

"Well, that's because you're a girl, and this is science."

"Oh, right."


Some people are just humor-challenged, surprising from Ampar, as he usually does funny posts. Woke up on the wrong side of the bed?

Feb 23, 08 - 01:56 pm Comment from: Spudly

Good to see Erica kept part of her name when she remarried. I wonder what happened to Vorbis? Last I heard he was living in cars and bumming change on the streets. Nice move Erica!! Welcome to AAC!! I hear he's better in bed anyway...prolly why you made the switch!

IT's THE RESOLUTION, STUPID.
IT's THE COLOR BIT DEPTH, STUPID
IT's THE AUDIO BIT RATE and BIT DEPTH, STUPID

In the lemming-esque rush for digital video downloads
these three criteria are getting lost.

This download cart is way, WAY before the bandwidth horse
and way way WAY before the customer demand horse.

AUDIO downloads have already effectively ruined the
concept of HIGH FIDELITY in recorded music . . .

. . . . so let's not be in such a rush for movie downloads
until the bandwidth for these Big Three easily available . . . .

. . . . or the concept of High Definition Video will go the way
of High Fidelity Audio.

My opinion: Downloads is the innovation,the next one is how to storage it.

Feb 23, 08 - 02:23 pm Comment from: BC Kelly

Consider the current auction for that 700mhz(?) spectrum

If Google (and Apple/together?) wins

And gets that puppy runnin' full speed

We can Change the World™

BC

Feb 23, 08 - 02:26 pm Comment from: BC Kelly

P.S.

Storage is nothing

Let the 'cloud' hold it

Or, if want, burn your own disc

Or fill up hard drives/flash

For the 'stuff' really worth having

BC

BC Kelly: "Consider the current auction for that 700mhz(?) spectrum

If Google (and Apple/together?) wins

And gets that puppy runnin' full speed

We can Change the World™"
==============================

That's exactly what I have been hoping for. When Comcrap, Verizon, AT&T;, Time Warner et. al. see how well iTunes/AppleTV downloads are working for us, they are going to F*ck us over. No doubt about that.

Well, hopefully Google/Apple can serve up the bandwidth on the old 700 MHz spectrum right into our homes, and we can tell the cables and telcos to f*ck off first!

I even have a nice antenna on my roof to welcome Apple/Google as my new ISP overlords!

It's crazy how much DVDs or BRs are considered only in termes of selling movies!
Damn, i ONLY use those for backups... and that a BR keeps more datas than a DVD is my best motivation to embrace this technology.

They use a 5GB show as an example -- a very bad example that they admit is pretty much outside the current envelope of deployed technology.

Blu-ray delivers 50GB 1080 video instantly.
Apple TV delivers 720 video after a slow download.
The performance/technology gap between the two is still too big.

When AT&T;provides the masses 10 Mbps or better, then this fairy tale might come true. Otherwise, I agree, women, which are notoriously bad at math, shouldn't write articles on technology.

The answer is VERY simple. Apple should offer a package deal. Allow the customer to download a low resolution version of the video for instant gratification, and ship them a Blu-Ray with full 1080p resolution and all 50 GB of extras. Very simple solution that fulfills all requirements.

Feb 23, 08 - 05:36 pm Comment from: Mr. Reeee

Captain Celluloid.... Right On, Bro!

Respect and appreciation for Audio and Video Quality are being lost in the quest for instant access. The mentality of 'I can get every song ever recorded by any and every artist whenever I want' is threatening to kill quality Hi-Fi and video.

But, then, most people don't know what real, unamplified music, played in a real concert hall sounds like. What a shame! I'm not talking about what the music is, but how it's presented.

Go to your typical concert and you're listening to a PA system, NOT the musicians. yes, you can see them and hear what they're playing, but it's not a direct listening environment. The sound is filtered and stripped away and made really loud.

AM radio quality samples are good enough for the tin-eared herd, I suppose

Feb 23, 08 - 05:40 pm Comment from: Darth Avenus

Although people can still give gift cards for a birthday or Christmas, some still like the idea of wrapping and giving a tangible gift, like a DVD, or later this year, a Blu-Ray disc movie. I don't think digital downloads will really take off until Apple TV sales go through the roof and broadband speeds increase.

Feb 23, 08 - 05:41 pm Comment from: Connor MacBook

George, the movie content itself is closer to 20GB.
Captain_Celluloid, SACD and DVD Audio showed the market for high-fidelity sound is limited.

EVEN if I had unlimited bandwidth and could watch the video instantly it's ridiculous to think I'd want it as a digital download that has time limits on how soon I have to watch it and how many other places I can take it. What about the car, the kids room, loaning it to my brother or parents if I like it?

Downloads may replace going to the movies IF it was available to download at the same time as it was released, but it wouldn't replace buying a movie I like.

Downloads just are NOT the same quality as a BD transfer, just watch them on your 46" or bigger 1080P flat panel or a 100"+ projection setup and it is obvious. Way TOO much compression.

I belive that the disk formats WILL die. I've rented "300" in HD and was able to start watching it almost imdiately after it started to download. I have a 46 inch TV and the quality was very good. I'll admit that the disk would have been better. Streaming HD is definately the way to go for rentals... at least.

@Hm

Stop America bashing when you obviously don't know what you're talking about! Just go to the global bandwidth test site; http://www.speedtest.net/

It shows you the average speeds for regions & countries around the world. The US is typically near the top from tests by actual users! Most of Europe is on DSL..... and the EU has made a big deal about falling BEHIND the US in terms of fiber to the home deployment.

BTW, the writers of this article show that they are complete morons on this topic... I have Verizon FiOS and get almost 20 Mbps on the downlink (I pay for the 20 Mbps speed, but the SLOWEST speed on FiOS is 15 Mbps and the HIGHEST is 50 Mbps, so it's obvious that these reporters haven't done their job... surprise, surprise... b/c of their great research abilities and commitment to accuracy, they went on to report on McCain for the New York TImes... LOL!)

Data will be kept on hard drives or flash drives kept in external usb enclosures. Physical media is dead.

It doesn't make sense to backup data on dvds or bluray discs. Regular dvds (not pressed) tend to go bad with time whether they're scratched or not. Even with improved technology I seriously question how long blurays discs will last. If you only use a hard drive for backing up data and viewing data it should last a lifetime. Keeping that drive in an external usb/firewire enclosure makes it very portable too (especially if you get a 2.5inch laptop drive).

Also, there's an issue with cost. You can get a 500 gb hard drive for just over a hundred dollars. Flash is becoming insanely cheep too compared to what it was a few years ago.

Another problem with backing up data to bluray discs is that you have to erase the disc and burn all the data again when you want to back up something new. All you have to do on a removable drive is copy/paste/cute and delete.

The moment flash drives become mainstream, physical media will die with the exception of usb keys and SD cards.

Captain_Celluloid said

"IT's THE RESOLUTION, STUPID."
"IT's THE COLOR BIT DEPTH, STUPID"
"IT's THE AUDIO BIT RATE and BIT DEPTH, STUPID"

Go to any torrent site and search for 1080p. An average 2 hour bluray-rip is 8gb-10gb and is the same quality as a bluray movie on a disc. High quality rips are high quality.
Best case scenario is that those blu-ray rips actually look better than bluray discs, due to deinterlacing.

I have yet to see a blu-ray rip (and I've seen dozens thanks to binaries) that looks bad. x264 is delicious

A bluray rip should have a slightly higher resolution. There is no other difference.