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Dvorak: Apple iPhone will be duplicated by others within a couple of quarters
Thursday, June 07, 2007 - 03:41 PM EST

"If you follow the rules and sell on good news and buy on the bad, now would be time to short Apple Inc. There is no company out there with this much good news," John C. Dvorak writes for MarketWatch.

"The good news that's over the top is about the iPhone. It's going to set the world on fire once it's released, according to all the experts," Dvorak writes. "This leaves me as perhaps the only mainstream naysayer, since I remain skeptical that Apple (or anyone else for that matter) can jump into the deep end of the mobile-phone swimming pool without knowing how to swim."

MacDailyNews Note: Please see related articles:
Dvorak trolls: ‘Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone’ - March 28, 2007
Dvorak on Apple iPhone: ‘I think Apple can do wrong and I think this is it’ - January 13, 2007

Dvorak continues, "I was reluctant to revisit this subject, since the media already has beaten it to death. But the legions of Apple mavens that will buy anything bearing the company's logo demand more and more coverage."

MacDailyNews Take: Beaten it to death or beaten you to death due to morbid stupidity, John? So, where were these "legions of Apple mavens" when the G4 Cube was on sale, John? It had a big Apple logo on it. We've yet to meet a single "Apple maven," and we've met legions, who are demanding more and more iPhone or any other coverage from John C. Dvorak.

Dvorak continues, "I got a call last night. 'I think it's time to sell Apple short,' said the voice... 'The keyboard is a disaster, and people are going to return the phone in droves. I'm guessing 20% will go back... It's frustrating to use.'" The conversation drifted off and I wasn't convinced, because I do not think people are going to buy the Apple phone because they want to type on it."

MacDailyNews Take: The conversation most likely drifted off because Dvorak was having it with one of the voices in his head. If not, and someone calls John and tells him that pigs are flying around Manhattan, do we get a report via MarketWatch, too? Someone who has actually tried the iPhone for a good amount of time, Andy Ihnatko, for the Chicago Sun-Times, wrote back in January, "I think the iPhone's virtual keyboard is a huge improvement over the mechanical thumbpads found on the Treo and any other smart phones of its size." So who do you believe, Andy with hands-on experience or John's disembodied voice?

Dvorak continues, "I could be wrong about this, since Apple is emphasizing the Web-surfing capability of the device. The company has bought into the groupthink premise that people will want to surf the Web endlessly on a small device."

MacDailyNews Take: If you go to the iPhone section of Apple's site (online since January), the order of features is: "Widescreen iPod," "Revolutionary Phone," "Breakthrough Internet Device," and "High Technology." Third on a list of four; some emphasis. John, Apple doesn't do groupthink very well at all. We'd say you have Microsoft on the brain, but you obviously don't have one. Apple is simply trying to offer the best mobile web browsing experience on a handheld device.

Dvorak continues, "My unnamed friend also offered an odd anecdote that I found somewhat weird, but worth mentioning. He said that he was in the Apple store and the personnel there were showing videos of the iPhone, when a customer said, 'Wow, you mean it is also a cell phone!' What did the person think it was, a fancy new iPod?"

MacDailyNews Take: Either Dvorak's "friend" is the New York Times' John Markoff or Dvorak's been reading the NY Times recently and incorporated it into one of those voices of his. John Markoff reported for The New York Times on June 4, 2007, "During an onscreen demonstration of the iPhone in Apple’s sprawling retail store here recently, an employee, clad in a black T-shirt, of course, surprised a potential customer. Nonplused, the customer stammered, 'You mean it’s a cellphone, too?'" Pardon us for questioning the very existence of Dvorak's "friend."

Dvorak continues, "As for the iPhone keyboard leading to disappointment and returns, I'm not convinced. I'm sticking with my scenario where the phone is hugely successful for a couple of quarters until the fashion goes stale. By then, the functionality will be duplicated by others and Apple will be treading water."

MacDailyNews Take: You mean like they did with the iPod? Or iTunes? Certainly not the Mac, because as Apple CEO Steve Jobs made clear as he unveiled the iPhone at Macworld Expo 2007, "We've been pushing the state-of-the-art in every facet of design... we've been innovating like crazy for the last few years on this and we've field for over 200 patents for all of the inventions in iPhone. And we intend to protect them." Sorry, John, no upside-down and backwards fakes from Microsoft or anyone else this time around.

Dvorak continues, "In the meantime, there will be the inevitable production flaws that hopefully will not be catastrophic. If a production catastrophe does occur, call your broker."

MacDailyNews Take: If you believe that Dvorak hopes there are no catastrophic production flaws with iPhone, you need to put down the pipe.

Dvorak continues, "I can say for a fact that all the other handset players are freaked out by this device, and have contacted the independent design firms to come up with something as jazzy as the iPhone, in case it becomes a runaway hit. But what about the Big Two, Motorola Inc. and Nokia Corp. I'd follow Apple's lead -- not the lead in design and marketing, but the lead in ridiculing the competition in company advertising."

MacDailyNews Take: Motorola and Nokia should ridicule Apple's iPhone because they're years behind the highly-patented device? Idiotic, illogical advice as usual, John.

Full article Think Before You Clickhere.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Readers too numerous to mention for the heads up.]

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Jun 07, 07 - 02:44 pm Comment from: Sublime

Don't take that bait.

Jun 07, 07 - 02:45 pm Comment from: Kill Bill

"Dvorak: Apple iPhone will be duplicated by others within a couple of quarters"

Just a desperate troll for web site hit counts, please "think before you click and reward the poor sap"

Vent your rage in the posts below, obviously something has got you fuming so this is a good excuse.

My boss totally sucks.

Jun 07, 07 - 02:46 pm Comment from: wizeoldowl

I will make a copy of his remarks, and remember to look back on them in six months

Jun 07, 07 - 02:46 pm Comment from: Stephen

I nominate this cretin for Troll of the Century.

Jun 07, 07 - 02:47 pm Comment from: Rick

I hope Dvorak dies in pain with a brain tumor.

Jun 07, 07 - 02:48 pm Comment from: botox

Dork trool alert!!!

Jun 07, 07 - 02:50 pm Comment from: You Can't Handle the TRUTH!

Actually, the iPhone has already been copied.

Yea, yea I know, "troll" but it is true. Some companies have already done it, although it's no iPhone, just looks like one.

Where's the link? Why should I give you a link?

You can't handle the link!

Jun 07, 07 - 02:50 pm Comment from: Mac n' Cheese

Calling Dvorak a cretin is an insult to cretins.

Jun 07, 07 - 02:52 pm Comment from: Jim

Dvorak, what a fool!

Jun 07, 07 - 02:52 pm Comment from: MidWest Mac

Me is riter 2. May bee I can get job lyke John????
Our they hireing at PC Mag rite now?

Jun 07, 07 - 02:53 pm Comment from: Gordon

Dvorak is a victim like any other PC writer or reviewer - finding there's not much to write about in the PC world. Why? Lack of innovation and excitement. He might not have a job soon...

What do you do? Harp and rip on a company that IS innovative and exciting. Dvorak will say anything to keep his job. Mr. D you are JUST A WRITER with an opinion, and it's wearing thin because you write stupid things!

Jun 07, 07 - 02:54 pm Comment from: january 24, 1984

Such negativism has its own just desserts.

"Eat up, John."

Jun 07, 07 - 02:54 pm Comment from: Not Bill

I wonder if Steve was mean to Dvorak once, a long time ago. Why else would he be so irrational about anything Apple? Maybe Steve asked him if he had ever lost his virginity.

Jun 07, 07 - 02:54 pm Comment from: MegaMe

Dvorak is a bomb thrower. He is anti anything new and anti anything tech.

Why people still listen to him is amazing to me.

I use to think he was funny. Now he is just old. His stick is stale.

Jun 07, 07 - 02:55 pm Comment from: Gregg Thurman

Don't click the link. That's what Dvorak writes for, he cares not whether what he writes is accurate or reasonable. He just wants the hits.

Jun 07, 07 - 02:56 pm Comment from: LinuxGuy and Mac Prodigal Son

Dvorak must have felt his hold on the stupidity crown was being challanged today by Doug McIntyre. He just had to regain the title.

As Forest Gump put it, "Stupid is as stupid does."

Jun 07, 07 - 02:56 pm Comment from: Martin

Dovorak is your head up your ass, how long has the iPod been out, has anyone duplicated it. NO and that will be the same way with the iPhone.

Jun 07, 07 - 02:58 pm Comment from: Essefgy

Obviously they'll try and duplicate the iPhone. Just like they tried to duplicate the iPod; just like they tried to duplicate OS X. Sheesh.

Jun 07, 07 - 02:59 pm Comment from: dvorak is a jerk

"I hope Dvorak dies in pain with a brain tumor."

i doubt his brain is big enough to attract anything that substantial

Jun 07, 07 - 03:00 pm Comment from: Moo

"But the legions of Apple mavens that will buy anything bearing the company's logo demand more and more coverage.""

He's said some stupid things before, but this has got to be the pinnacle of stupidity. I guess he feels it's his duty to save us all from ourselves.

Its my money John you douchebag, if i want to wipe my ass with it then set it on fire that's my business.

Jun 07, 07 - 03:01 pm Comment from: John

Dvorak should eat a brown Zune, then flush him self.

Jun 07, 07 - 03:02 pm Comment from: Spit Take Warning

Must have a rent payment due at the apartment complex.

Jun 07, 07 - 03:05 pm Comment from: Global Acceleration

Dvorak is Ballmer's long lost twin. Neither have friends, just a lot of voices in their expanding heads.

Jun 07, 07 - 03:05 pm Comment from: Eric

Oh, wait till Microcrap releases something with a touch screen. Dvoass will be saying it is the greatest thing ever!

Jun 07, 07 - 03:05 pm Comment from: Bobby

When an idiot falls in the forest, does anyone care?

Jun 07, 07 - 03:05 pm Comment from: john

There's one thing that copies can't copy and that's OSX. So the copies will not work nearly as well and you'll get what you paid for with the copies, GARBAGE!!!

Jun 07, 07 - 03:09 pm Comment from: macula

MDN, you really write like a Taliban. Are you sure you aren't one?

Jun 07, 07 - 03:09 pm Comment from: Priused

Obviously another 'bait' article.

How can I be sure? Simple: Dvorak doesn't have any friends.

Jun 07, 07 - 03:13 pm Comment from: Big mac

Throw Dvorak in the trash.

Jun 07, 07 - 03:14 pm Comment from: Dvorak

A better example of an Asshat has yet to be found.

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=asshat

Jun 07, 07 - 03:18 pm Comment from: RC

Hey John,

Probably not.

Jun 07, 07 - 03:18 pm Comment from: McFly

Dvorak is drunk again, and typing.

Jun 07, 07 - 03:19 pm Comment from: MikeK

Thanks, MDN, for putting Dvorak on this site so I never have to click on his full articles. What a troll.

I love his line, "The company has bought into the groupthink premise that people will want to surf the Web endlessly on a small device."

I currently own a Treo 600, and let me tell you, I frakking LOVE to surf the Internet endlessly when I'm away from my computer. If I've got to wait somewhere for a few minutes -- a doctor's office, at a restaurant, during a traffic jam -- I check the latest headlines on news sites, read MDN, Salon, etc. My only complaint is that the Treo can barely manage to view a tenth of the websites out there. That's why the minute I heard about the iPhone I cancelled my order for the Treo 750 (which was already on order), and have waited patiently for six months to see if the hype is even close to the reality.

I'd buy the iPhone for real web access even if it had no other features beyond a basic phone. Anyone who's tried to surf the web with a browser that can't read frames, can't handle Flash, or can't manage to display a page correctly with more than simple text will cheer in relief...

I may not be there on June 29. I'm not that much of an early adopter. But I'll be there by Christmas.

Jun 07, 07 - 03:23 pm Comment from: cosmos

MDN, you are an idiot for even posting stuff from this guy... STOP already... I am sick of him and the other clowns... Seriously, you are just helping him by posting his garbage here...

So freaking stop already.... PLEASE! This is stupid!

Jun 07, 07 - 03:25 pm Comment from: Jim - TIV

Am I right in reading the stock ticker above. The Dow Jones is taking a beating, but AAPL is STILL going up?

Jun 07, 07 - 03:27 pm Comment from: oh my

Hey ... is that Dvorak in This video ?? ...
The lead singer, ...or maybe holding a sign ... or the guy at the end ?
LOL

Jun 07, 07 - 03:27 pm Comment from: richard chambers

Why not take the high road and just ignore this freak?

Jun 07, 07 - 03:29 pm Comment from: DRM sucks

"The company has bought into the groupthink premise that people will want to surf the Web endlessly on a small device."

WTF? First, why is that a "groupthink premise"? Second, what is the evidence that Apple has assumed this?

The web function is obviously not as good as a laptop or desktop, but there are plenty of functions that can be useful when away from either of those devices: google maps, movie tickets, restaurant reviews, etc. For those of use that are frighteningly dependent on the web for that kind of information, mobile web browsing is a great utility.

Jun 07, 07 - 03:32 pm Comment from: Fantastic Frank

The screen on the iPhone is rather small, and so is the iPod's for that matter, those whose vision is impaired. People who don't want a 12" or 13" laptop because they think they need a larger screen, 15" or even 17", for example. So the first manufacturer who puts an iPhone screen enlarger on the market will clean up...or the iPhone will create an enlarged market for magnifying glasses.
Especially rectangular ones. Apple will, in a next generation, bring out a large (and heavier) model with a larger screen; the main criterion will be that the screen must not be as large as their smallest laptop screen. In the next iteration, the screen will be hinged, just like a book, and finally will be two-sided and hinged. Then the magnifying glass market will collapse, by which time the high end smart fone market will do, faute de mieux chez Nok, MOT, and RIM.

Jun 07, 07 - 03:33 pm Comment from: war

MS has been trying for around 20 years to duplicate the Mac OS and has yet to do so. So, we should assume that the iPhone will be duplicated in a couple of months? Logic would dictate that it will be imitated (like windows vs. the mac) but it will never be an elegant copy.

Jun 07, 07 - 03:33 pm Comment from: King David

Ok someone should write a "Dvorak is Retarded" article and post it on Forbes around Noon Eastern time or something. I think that would make Apple's stock go up. Then send it as a press release throughout the internet. Then at the end if the day an hour before the market closes, RESEND it as another press release by Forbes. Cuz that's exactly what Marketwatch did, though the affect was negative both times on Apple's stock. I guess two words from Dvorak is what it takes to "almost" quench 1 word from Cramer.

Jun 07, 07 - 03:39 pm Comment from: macman

There's already a pretty close fake out in the wild. The HTC Touch. Some crappy WM app that sits atop WM6. You’d be surprised how quickly the anti-Apple crowd has latched onto this new phone. They tried to back the LG Prada, but it flopped, so now they’re trying to back this new HTC as the “iPhone killer”.

Hopefully Steve will send the lawyers across the pond to HTC headquarters and save consumers from this dismal hardware design with a horrid UI. Not to mention a terrible OS behind it as well.

Jun 07, 07 - 03:42 pm Comment from: SydneyStephen

"I was reluctant to revisit this subject"

He should have followed his gut instinct. Instead he has written a very shoddy article - the obvious dishonesty about his friend and the plagiarisation of the NY Times article show a journalist with no ethics - we already knew he had no talent.

Can't they do better than this at whatever tawdry publication he writes for?

Jun 07, 07 - 03:47 pm Comment from: Give me a break

Along the lines of what several posters have already noted, Dvorak must be the highest paid troll in the computer industry.

Given iPhone is OS X, Dvorak simply doesn't know what he's talking about with respect to the idea of iPhone clones.

Jun 07, 07 - 03:48 pm Comment from: Matrix3

If Dvork thought he was knocking the iPhone he actually gave it even more legs.

When he said that his mysterious friend at the Apple store overheard a customer not knowing it was a cellphone: Guess what if that customer was willing to buy it full price for it's iPod like qualities and new interface - and I'm sure there are customer out there like his example- Then the iPhone is going to sell for those who want to trade up their iPod, switch to an iPod or just get the latest iPod.

Apple will have two customer sources - for iPods and cellphones.

And, yes Dvork is right other companies will try to imitate the iPhone - it will be those who buy a Ford because it looks like a BMW.

Unfortunately, there will be a lot of consumers who will buy some look-a-like that doesn't function even half a well.
I can hear them now - look I just brought an iPhone knock0off for half the price, but when asked how does it function: oh, I'm sure its the same - NOT!
It will probably have a M$ version that tries to duplicate OSX like everything else they make, will over heat, have a 10 minute battery life and crashes during calls.

My 2 cents.

Jun 07, 07 - 03:48 pm Comment from: jackspratt

GUH
GUH
GUH
GUH

Jun 07, 07 - 03:53 pm Comment from: ChrissyOne

"Hello, Dvorak?"

Yes?

"John C. Dvorak?"

Yes, that's me.

"You're a jerk. A real knee-biter."

Jun 07, 07 - 03:54 pm Comment from: Jim Qwerty

This guy is a total biter.

Jun 07, 07 - 03:55 pm Comment from: Bill Betamax

Fer reals. I mean, this has to be a joke, right?

Jun 07, 07 - 03:59 pm Comment from: ken1w

So it goes from Apple's big mistake (pull the plug) -to- it's so good, it will be copied in a few quarters by the competition. Even if possible, by that time, Apple will have sold 20 million iPhones.

But it is not possible for the following reasons:

* Those 200 patents that Apple will enforce rigorously.
* No other copied iPhone product is also an iPod.
* No other copied iPhone product will have Mac OS X (or any OS of equal capability).
* Everyone else but Apple competes based on price. They will never match Apple's design or quality.

Jun 07, 07 - 04:00 pm Comment from: Jim - TIV

C1 - isn't Dvorak an ankle biter, I though Thurrott was the knee biter?

I'm so confused

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