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Dvorak: Will Apple ditch Mac OS X for Microsoft’s Windows?
Thursday, February 16, 2006 - 01:13 AM EST

"The idea that Apple would ditch its own OS for Microsoft Windows came to me from Yakov Epstein, a professor of psychology at Rutgers University, who wrote to me convinced that the process had already begun. I was amused, but after mulling over various coincidences, I'm convinced he may be right. This would be the most phenomenal turnabout in the history of desktop computing," John C. Dvorak writes for PC Magazine. "Epstein made four observations. The first was that the Apple Switch ad campaign was over, and nobody switched. The second was that the iPod lost its FireWire connector because the PC world was the new target audience. Also, although the iPod was designed to get people to move to the Mac, this didn't happen. And, of course, that Apple had switched to the Intel microprocessor."

MacDailyNews Question: If nobody switched, then why are Mac unit sales and market share rising?

Dvorak continues, "Apple has always said it was a hardware company, not a software company. Now with the cash cow iPod line, it can afford to drop expensive OS development and just make jazzy, high-margin Windows computers to finally get beyond that five-percent market share and compete directly with Dell, HP, and the stodgy Chinese makers. To preserve the Mac's slick cachet, there is no reason an executive software layer couldn't be fitted onto Windows to keep the Mac look and feel. Various tweaks could even improve the OS itself. From the Mac to the iPod, it's the GUI that makes Apple software distinctive. Apple popularized the modern GUI. Why not specialize in it and leave the grunt work to Microsoft? It would help the bottom line and put Apple on the fast track to real growth."

"The only fly in the ointment will be the strategic difficulty of breaking the news to the fanatical users. Most were not initially pleased by the switch to Intel's architecture, and this will make them crazy," Dvorak writes. "Luckily, Apple has a master showman, Steve Jobs. He'll announce that now everything can run on a Mac. He'll say that the switch to Windows gives Apple the best of both worlds. He'll say this is not your daddy's Windows. He'll cajole and cajole, and still hear a few boos. But those will be the last boos he'll hear, for then the Mac will be mainstream. We will welcome the once-isolated Apple mavens, finally."

Full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Oh, come on, how the hell are we supposed to write a "Take" for this one?

Oh, alright, here: A few boos wouldn't be the only thing Uncle Steve would hear if he ambled onstage somewhere and announced Apple was dropping Mac OS X for Windows, even if it was "Windows with a Mac face." Forget about wearing full body armor and having metal detectors at the auditorium's entrance; he'd have to announce such a thing via satellite from an undisclosed location; like from high earth orbit or, better yet, from the moon. And he'd better plan on staying there.

We guess Dvorak's saying that Apple would lose the 16% of the world's personal computer users who used to have a perfect security record. But, really, where could we go? Eventually, we'd have to go with some Linux distribution or right back to Apple's Windows (Macdows? Wintosh? WindeX?), we guess, right? And Apple would supposedly gain some sort of improved shot at the 80% of the rest of the market with this "Wacintosh?" By the way, Apple's Mac sales are already quite profitable.

Oh, forget it. You guys and gals can tackle this one in the feedback. We can't get drunk enough to understand Dvorak's mindset, much less dissect it properly. We have had a few already, so we will leave it to you with this last bit: Doesn't Apple have so many other much less crazy options to try out before unleashing such a nightmare? Options like releasing a shrink-wrapped Mac OS X for x86 or licensing Mac OS X to HP, Dell, Toshiba, Lenovo, Sony, Gateway, etc. or making Darwine (running Windows apps without Windows) a working feature of Mac OS X Leopard or giving a free iPod away with every Mac purchase or vice versa or, God forbid, actually attempting to advertise and explain the Mac properly to the world first?

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Related MacDailyNews articles:
Dvorak: Steve Jobs eventually intends for Apple's Mac OS X to run on any x86 PC - August 08, 2005
Dvorak: Mac OS X is already better than Windows, Vista may be end of line for Microsoft's dominance - July 26, 2005
Dvorak: Microsoft should shutter the company - July 13, 2004

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Reader Feedback: ( = registered)

Feb 16, 06 - 01:35 am Comment from: tpd

The guy is on crack. How many times does Steve Jobs say that what's unique about Apple is they control the whole widget?

Feb 16, 06 - 01:38 am Comment from: Daniel

This is possibly the most ridiculous article I've ever read

Feb 16, 06 - 01:41 am Comment from: eyestosky

i'm sure it has been said before but....


this guy is an idiot

Feb 16, 06 - 01:43 am Comment from: Tezza

LOL April fool's day has come early this year.

Feb 16, 06 - 01:45 am Comment from: gadget

MDN speechless? Now that is shocking!
seriously- what is the good Dr. smoking to come to these concusions???

Feb 16, 06 - 01:52 am Comment from: Rory Misener

Dvorak is a tool.

Feb 16, 06 - 01:53 am Comment from: inferno10

This guy's a psychology professor. He most likely wrote the article to analyze how we Mac enthusiasts would react to such a ridiculous statement.

That, or maybe he's absolutely mental.

Feb 16, 06 - 01:56 am Comment from: DrDude

Yeah... a Mac-like shell running on top of Windoze, I would buy that, and I wouldn't have to suffer ridicule from my colleagues in finance anymore. I would buy that as long as it had a partially eaten piece of fruit on it and had a name with an X in it. Yeah.....

Nah, on second thought, USPS and an HP 12C calculator would be my weapons of choice. What, give up my Mac? Next I'll have to give up my '71 Beetle and drive a Taurus.

I do, however, like the notion of relegating M$ to the commodity manufacturer of the OS, it could then become irrelevant.

But all those driver conflicts and hardware incompatibilities would be enough to drive me to hire Al Queda to track down SJ.

NEVER!!!!!!

Feb 16, 06 - 01:56 am Comment from: clyde

Do journalists have to take random drug tests? If not, too bad... BECAUSE THIS GUY'S BEEN SMOKING CRACK!!!

(with apologies to any crack users who might be reading this)

Feb 16, 06 - 01:59 am Comment from: anonymous

12 year olds write more realistic things at Mac Rumors

Feb 16, 06 - 01:59 am Comment from: Tera Patricks

Smile. Gotcha.

Dvorak loves to pinch and all of us have just been pinched. This could leave a mark.

What differentiates a Mac from a Windows PC? Hardware? OS? GUI?

Remarkably, even the differences in hardware have been nominal for years, despite the G5, FPU, and FW800.

GUI? Windows XP/Vista et al, are really more GOOEY than a useable graphic interface.

That leaves the OS differences. Mac OS is solid, dependable, stable, durable, secure, complex yet easy to use for the average user and the geekier among us. How does that compare to Windows XP SP29?

Oh, what about applications? Let's compare Mac apps (Apple's and others) with Windows. Try AIM on Windows vs. iChat AV. See?

It's the OS. That's what makes a Mac a Mac. Make the Mac run Windows and have it look like OS X and it's still Windows, it's no longer a Mac. So, why buy a Mac?

Hence, goodbye Apple.

John Dvorak loves doing this kind of thing knowing well in advance what will happen to hits on his web site (huge) while Mac users try to put out their flaming hair.

MDN needs a take on this. Not a take on this latest idiocy from Dvorak (always a good read), but to track Dvorak's past predictions as well as those from Enderle and Friends.

John's been around a long time, pontificating on anything and everything technical, but his own track record of predictions grows weaker with age and suffers from an egomanical virus in which he's both carrier and victim. What's sad is this: all that technical experience and knowledge is reduced to an aging ringmaster, star of a three ring circus of weekly entertainment that becomes a bit more outrageous each week.

That act is tired, old, finished. Next!!!

Tera Patricks
Mac360

Feb 16, 06 - 02:00 am Comment from: SL

I can imagine it now...

"...so we have come to a decision which will benefit all our users and potential customers. This is Windows like you've never seen it. And I'd like to give you a demo if I could...
..Now as you can see, we have replaced the black aero glass look for a more mac-like white feel. The wallpapers have also been cha- whoops! seems like we have a little bug here... yes. i want explorer to close. No, i don't want to tell microsoft..............
[30 seconds later]..Okay, enough of that. So as you can see, we have implemented much of the Mac User Experience into the user interface of Windows and all of our applications have been ported over. So if I go into iPhoto... boom - change resolution?... yes, I'll go to display.... that should be fine.. yes, I'll let the screen blank.. [2 minutes later] it seems this pre-release is having a few teething problems but we're going to have it working great for our customers when it ultimately ships. moving on...."

Feb 16, 06 - 02:11 am Comment from: John C. Dvorak

Everytime I write something really stupid about the Mac I can always count on you tools to link it up and keep my clicks rolling in!! Thanks for feeding my fire!

Feb 16, 06 - 02:15 am Comment from: Mintdog

And maybe Apple will include "Virtual Mac" with every Macintel computer they sell. That way, you will boot in Windows and can emulate OS X through virtualization technology. And finally, the hardware will prevent running OS X in any sort of native install or dual boot more --- for security reasons, of course.

Dvorak, you are a total idiot and if sarcasm was your attempt, then you suck at that too.

Feb 16, 06 - 02:21 am Comment from: Steve Jobs

What the heck does he think will make Apple think different if such an idiotic plan?

His attempt to get hits on his website shows his despeartin. We haven't heard from him in months, and they must be threatening to pull the plug on his column. So now he's trying to show how many hits he can bring it to sell cars and financial services.

What a fool.

Bozo

Feb 16, 06 - 02:47 am Comment from: daddysteve

This is THE dumbest thing I ever heard!

"but after mulling over various coincidences, I'm convinced he may be right"

The only thing I'm convinced of is that Dvorak is a hit troller! Plain and simple. No resemblance to a journalist whatsoever. (speaking as a journalist myself)

Feb 16, 06 - 02:57 am Comment from: iMaki

While I don't believe the writer has any idea what the hell he's talking about, it is profoundly eery to me to even consider the tiny, miniscule possibility such a thing could occur. But given the almighty dollar usually dictates strategy, we have to give it some consideration, no matter how unthinkable. The most beautiful case in the world will not suck the ugly from Windows. If Stevo care truly about his legacy, caving in and going Windows will happen only after they pry OSX from his cold, dead hand. Nuff said.

Feb 16, 06 - 02:58 am Comment from: Rainy Day

Must have some high-grade opium to write like that.

Feb 16, 06 - 02:59 am Comment from: Alice

Im usually pretty no violent, but some people need to get shot in the face. Well first they need to get sea-water thrown in their eyes, thenn shot in the face.

Feb 16, 06 - 03:01 am Comment from: flappo

he's a troll , nothing more , nothing less

Feb 16, 06 - 03:04 am Comment from: Rainy Day

I never liked Monty Python, but this reminds me of one of their old lines: Spot the Loony!

Feb 16, 06 - 03:10 am Comment from: Chris

*reads article*

WHAT?!



then....


apt mw: HOW?!

Feb 16, 06 - 03:19 am Comment from: No switchers? Huh?

Yeah.... Right. That growing marketshare? Uh... All those Apple Stores opening up? Uh... Dang! Does he READ anything besides his own columns???!!

Put the crack pipe away, Mr. Dvorak! And pull your head out while you're at it!

Feb 16, 06 - 03:38 am Comment from: CGW3

"Windows with a Mac face."

How about OS X with a Windows face....that would XP then ;o)

Feb 16, 06 - 03:39 am Comment from: Lars H

I don't now which makes laugh the most, John Dvorak or the MDN take!

Feb 16, 06 - 03:43 am Comment from: DP

Apple has always said they're a hardware company...they also always said they weren't ever going to get into the pda/mobile/digital accessory market, and it looks like that didn't quite turn out to be the case.

Feb 16, 06 - 03:57 am Comment from: matt

reading the headline (even more so the article), only one thing crossed my mind.
Before that happens, YOU HAVE TO MAKE ABSOLUTELY SURE, that Steve Jobs is dead. Never ever will this happen while Mr Jobs is still alive.

Does anyone remember the line "They can take away my Mac when they pry
my cold, dead fingers from my mouse." ?

Right. Killing the Mac OS would mean exactly that, killing that Mac, and only over Steve´s body. (and probably over those of a few 100,000 diehard mac users

Nuff said
Matt

Feb 16, 06 - 04:19 am Comment from: Loooong wait for ShortHorn

*
*
*
There is a disturbance in the force....

Clone war began has.....


*
*
*

Feb 16, 06 - 04:33 am Comment from: Holy Mackerel

John's four great pieces of evidence:

1. The first was that the Apple Switch ad campaign was over, and nobody switched

I know many who have, so I presume they exist. The switch campaign didn't have the benefits of a very delayed & feature-reduced Vista, nor the critical mass of viruses there is today, nor the current crop of iLife apps. Switching happens not only because Apple is good, but MS is bad.

2. the iPod lost its FireWire connector because the PC world was the new target audience

True, but surely you must see this as a cost cutting operation. Saving a $1 cable per box and selling millions of boxes is Economics 101 stuff.

3. iPod was designed to get people to move to the Mac

This is the same argument as #1. It will. Once people can run Windows on their MacIntel (shudder) as a 'safe' move and upgrade hardware each 2-3 years they'll get weaned off MS. Apple selling iPods everywhere, and now Macs everywhere will cause this to happen.

4. Apple had switched to the Intel microprocessor

Even John has admitted on his TWIT Podcast that the G4 PowerBook was underpowered and IBM had no future processor of interest. Intel is stifled by MS and Apple was only 2-3%, so why would Intel court Apple to become another box-mover.

My main issue is what is the motive? What do Apple gain that is more than what they'd lose? In a few months someone (WINE, VPC, GuestPC, Emulator, Intel Virual chip, an EFI hack) will get Windows apps running at a decent speed on the Mac, so why change? If I was cynical (I am) I would suggest this is more FUD from Redmond. Apple would move to Linux faster than Windows. What does Apple gain from Windows? Only a cost saving, but a total loss of control. John needs to re-examine his hypothesis or stop listening to psychology professors.

MW: 'must' as in there must be a motive

Feb 16, 06 - 04:49 am Comment from: spyinthesky

Lets see if I remember right didn't Next put a new face on windows underpinnings? Didn't exactly take off did it. Why would anyone spend the money to try to make windows look/feel/behave different and probably make it less stable and co operative in so doing at enormous cost? After all with all of Redmonds money they can't exactly make it work properly, or even reliable on time changes for the most part. Who I wonder would actually go to the bother of paying the extra for this cosmetic add on even if it did work ok, very few I think.

This is a nightmare that could only happen after Steve Jobs leaves the arena, one just hopes that he makes that option even more stupid than it is now, before that comes to pass.

To be honest a far better option if Apple did wish to commit suicide yet survive in the after life would be to open up OSX to the Chinese government (a bit like the offer for the MITs computer but on steroids) to use in their quest to be free of Microsoft/western domination (as percieved by them) and within 10 years Windows would be a footnote in history except where it was being used by myopic western bussinesses who, like so many before them, simply can't, don't want to, read the writing on the technological wall.

Feb 16, 06 - 05:07 am Comment from: ppc

This is the most ridiculous piece he has ever written and folks, this guy has written some way ridiculous pieces...
Complete and utter bullshit.
Don't feed the trolls.

Feb 16, 06 - 05:08 am Comment from: Petey

THIS GUY IS ON DRUGS.

WHAT A FSCKING RIDICULOUS STATEMENT.

HELL WILL FREEZE OVER AND HUMANS WILL BE LIVING ON THE SUN BEFORE THAT STATEMENT IS ANYWHERE NEAR RELEVENT TO ABYTHING APPLE DOES.

Yet more fud from some 12yr old who thinks he's a trained journalist who's only reason to make that statement is so that you click on his website so he gets a 'pimp' fee from his advertisers.

End of a (NON) story.

Feb 16, 06 - 05:11 am Comment from: Macaday

Simple answer: John Dvorak and his barmy professor have NO IDEA how much better OSX is over Windows. Nor do they see that that the switch IS happening. And lastly, they don't see that the world is tired of Windows and its problems and aalready see and know that Vista is no different.

Intelligent? Not.

Good piece there Tera P.

Feb 16, 06 - 05:13 am Comment from: It's Already Been Done

The Old NextStep OS, father of Rhapsody and OS X ran on TOP of Windows and other OSes. It didn't find a large number of sales.

The guy is smoking something, and I don't think it's legal. BTW- before I'd run the 'doze I'd just keep what I have. It works very well, thank you.

20" Core Duo iMac w/ Airport & Bluetooth Keyboard & Mouse. 1GB RAM, Mac OS 10.4.5

It should be good for a very long time, thank you.

Feb 16, 06 - 05:49 am Comment from: Dave H

I don't know whether to laugh or vomit.

Have him heavily sedated and taken to Sick Bay.

Feb 16, 06 - 05:51 am Comment from: The Manual Keeper

...dear God...

Feb 16, 06 - 06:09 am Comment from: Wingsy

I don't think Dvorak is on crack or LSD or anything.

I think he's just plain ole stupid.

Which explains why is just doesn't get it, never has, and never will.

Feb 16, 06 - 06:10 am Comment from: UNIX

FUKEN GRONK WTF ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT, APPLE GETTING RID OF OS X GET A FUKEN LIFE YOU JUNKY

Feb 16, 06 - 06:15 am Comment from: Macaday

A friend of mine just got this reply from the Professor:

Q: "I was curious to know if there was any truth in the article by John
Dvorak that you have studied Apple and have concluded that it has
already started on a process in which it will drop its own operating
system OS X in favour of Microsoft Windows."

A: "No, as John Dvorak said, it is just a theory and I have no inside information. I was only trying to make sense of a pattern of events that John described. Yakov"

So, do we believe that the Professor "wrote to me convinced that the process had already begun"?

And do we assume that the observations 'Epstein made' were just Dvoraks OWN suitably phrased observations?

Using a legitimate Professor of Psycholgy for credibility, Dvorak has successfully put his name in the shit.

Not someone you want to do business with - or to be your friend...

Feb 16, 06 - 06:15 am Comment from: Jeff

He doesn't get Apple. Apple SAYS its a hardware company, but in reality its a software company that forces you to buy its hardware to use its software. I don't own Macs for the hardware. They're very nice systems, but if they ran only Windows, I'd have no interest in them. I buy Macs because of OS X. Plain and simple. And if OS X ran on other systems, I'd more than likely still buy Macs because of their style factor.

Feb 16, 06 - 06:28 am Comment from: AJ

@Tera:

"John's been around a long time, pontificating on anything and everything technical..."

Should read: "...pondefecating on anything..."

Pondefecate: n, v. Pon*de*fe*cate.The act or process of profound thinking while in the process of defecating.

Feb 16, 06 - 06:41 am Comment from: effwerd

You guys are so easy to troll.

Feb 16, 06 - 06:45 am Comment from: Matt24

This is the ultimate insult.

Feb 16, 06 - 06:49 am Comment from: Fedobako

Before doing that, Apple would release a version of OS X to run on all PCs...and maybe as an open source.

Feb 16, 06 - 07:01 am Comment from: DudeMac

It seems that the professor is not very observant!

Feb 16, 06 - 07:13 am Comment from: gregory

This idiot does not know crap!

http://www.endlesselevation.com

Feb 16, 06 - 07:14 am Comment from: Ricardo

I think Dvorak knew this was guaranteed to drive the Mac fanatics crazy! Ha!, it's funny.

Feb 16, 06 - 07:16 am Comment from: caddisfly

it is more likely that MS will switch to OS X and go back to the application and tool software company it used to be - and was pretty good at.

the idea that Apple is a hardware company is just silly - it is the only computer manufacturer that is giving *any* value add to is hardware and it is doing that via software - it is marketing the entire vertical computer experience via the hardware and software it provides. That and its software that is what distinguishes Apple from HP, Dell, Gateway, etc

I think plenty of people are switching -- but to think this is going to happen in some tidal wave shows a complete ignorance of the dynamics of corporate IT -- "aka legacy applications, duh!" or the power of MS monopoly position.

It will happen, if it does, like the personal computer happened, and it didn't start at the corporations; it started at home, when people started asking "why can't i work as easily on this stupid mainframe and do the things I can do much easier at home?" ....and in the case of Windows, without having to worry about viruses, spyware, dll hell, registry, it just stopped working, defraggin, wiping the machine once a year, high support costs, etc

Feb 16, 06 - 07:17 am Comment from: MacTypeDdde

I think it is fair to say, that Steve is more of a mac fanactic than anyone here. Can ANY of you picture him sitting at a PC runing Windows Media for his tunes? Creating music in.. some.. lower.. type.. program.. thing.. What I am getting it, is Dvorak is a tool, is smokin something different than crack that hasn't even hit the streets yet. Its called kool-aid.

Feb 16, 06 - 07:38 am Comment from: SisterOfEvil

I hope no know wrote him an email. People who take such drugs are immune to rational explanations. He would probably laugh til his head turns red and then go on writing this kind of articles to get more emails. ^^

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