Enderle admits Apple’s switch to Intel not hurting Mac sales, says Apple ‘has never looked stronger’
Thursday, December 08, 2005 - 01:40 PM EST"Apple will face increasing competition next year, but the company has never looked stronger. The iPod and related offerings are almost unchallenged in the market and they appear to be weathering the Osborn effect of pre-announcing the Intel stuff incredibly well. All indicators are that their Intel-based products will kick some serious competitive butt when they show up and some are rumored to be showing up right after the new year," Rob "Microsoft wrote the first Mac OS" Enderle writes for TechNewsWorld.
MacDailyNews Note: In August, Rob Enderle wrote for TechNewsWorld, "Recent surveys indicate demand for Apple's existing products is dropping like a rock as a result" of Apple's announced switch to Intel-based processors in Macs. Full article here. In a subsequent article later that same month for TechNewsWorld, Enderle wrote, "Several folks questioned my comment that Apple demand was dropping like a rock and referred to past sales performance to refute this. Demand is measured by surveys of buying intent and I rely on surveys done for the financial firms who follow Apple. Unfortunately I don't have the rights to share the results. But the financial reports you have seen are based on sales before Apple announced the Intel move -- and the impact of that development won't show up in the financial reports until after this quarter ends. If the studies are to be believed, the fourth quarter, in particular, should be ugly for Apple. Granted, forward-looking studies are often unreliable, but the study I'm now using did accurately predict that last quarter would be very strong." Full article here. For the record, Apple shipped 1,236,000 Macintosh units in Apple's fiscal Q4 05 ended September 24, 2005, following up strongly on the 1,182,000 Macs shipped in Apple's Q3 05, and showing 48 percent growth in Mac unit shipments year over year.
Enderle continues, "I forecast Apple's decline accurately in 1995 but since that time Apple has changed dramatically. They moved into the MP3 space and these products now largely carry the company. They revitalized their leadership and gave what was always a very strong marketing organization something to market, and they renewed focus on the user who rewarded them with increased sales. Granted they are at war with their channel and one of the most visible players, Wal-Mart, has begun to move against them. But Wal-Mart isn't exactly widely loved and this fight may only benefit Apple long term. I'm no psychic, so I want to point out that while the trends look bad for all firms on this list [Sony, Google, IBM, Oracle, RIM] besides Apple, all are capable of avoiding disaster if they act in time -- as Apple has demonstrated."
MacDailyNews Note: Apple is no longer "at war" with Wal-Mart. Apple won. Wal-Mart also won, since the result was that they got iPods to sell. As James Covert reported for Dow Jones on November 29, 2005, "Wal-Mart was in a 'philosophical argument' with Apple Chief Executive Steve Jobs over whether the iPod player should play music from more varied sources, Wal-Mart Senior Vice President and Treasurer Jay Fitzsimmons said. 'He won, we lost. Now we have Nanos in the stores,' Fitzsimmons said, referring to the latest, smallest version of the iPod." Full article here.
Enderle's full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Rob Enderle is a buffoon. His choice in "surveys" which supposedly indicate demand is obviously poor, his ability to forecast anything is questionable, and his knowledge of current news is dated, as the Wal-Mart comment indicates. He's always good for a laugh, but news (supposedly non-fiction) publications that quote him and/or publish his articles (at least where he mentions Apple Computer, Inc.) should be questioned as to why they continue to use Enderle as a source if they wish to be regarded as credible. Now that Enderle is predicting Apple's future success, we're now a tad nervous for Apple. We're heartened to remember that even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then.
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Related articles:
Enderle: '2006 should be a very powerful year for Apple' - October 27, 2005
Enderle: 'Some people got really excited by the new iPod, but a growing number of people did not' - October 19, 2005
Judgement Day waits for Rob 'fourth quarter should be ugly for Apple' Enderle - October 11, 2005
Apple Q4 05 earnings report: best quarter & best year in company history - October 11, 2005
Enderle expects black Apple Macs to debut on Wednesday, not convinced of video iPod debut - October 10, 2005
Tech pundit Enderle: 'Microsoft wrote the first Mac OS' - September 28, 2005
Anti-Mac FUD, the impact of Windows Vista on Apple, and Rob Enderle - September 22, 2005
Tech pundit Enderle incorrectly compares Apple's Mac OS to iPod licensing - September 01, 2005
Enderle: 'Surveys indicate demand for Apple's products is dropping like a rock' due to Intel switch - August 01, 2005
Tech Pundit Enderle: 'fourth quarter should be ugly for Apple' - August 09, 2005
Rob Enderle's latest Windows Vista article is 'vapid and incomprehensible' - August 01, 2005
Enderle: 'Surveys indicate demand for Apple's products is dropping like a rock' due to Intel switch - August 01, 2005
Enderle: 'iPod Halo Effect is just a myth, same thing as having Paris Hilton visit Apple stores' - May 02, 2005
Tech pundit Enderle: Apple's Mac OS X Tiger's main features 'borrow heavily from Longhorn' - May 02, 2005
Tech Pundit Enderle: 'This year will be more difficult for Apple Computer' and iMacs in earthquakes - January 24, 2005


That's what happens when you do a little too much knee-jerk reaction reporting without looking deeper into the story.
So much for The Osborne Effect huh?