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Enderle: If Apple can’t double market share it will abandon Macs
Tuesday, May 02, 2006 - 02:08 PM EST

"No one seems to talk much about Apple Leopard, the next version of the Mac OS. This is primarily because Apple, unlike Microsoft, is not talking about this next generation platform publicly," Rob Enderle writes for MacNewsWorld. "Based on comments by Apple chief Steve Jobs it was slated to roll out about the same time as Vista originally was, but if what I'm reading is right, it too has run into problems and won't show up until late 2007."

MacDailyNews Take: Whatever Mr. "Microsoft Wrote the First Mac OS" Enderle is reading is wrong. His personal fantasy-land seems to know no boundaries. Walt Mossberg, who has indescribably more credibility than Mr. Enderle, says Apple Mac OS X Leopard is due in early 2007. Needham & Co analyst Charles Wolf expects Apple's Mac OS X Leopard will ship soon after MacWorld San Francisco in January 2007. And, Apple CEO Steve Jobs, certainly an authority on the issue, has never wavered from his June 2005 World Wide Developers Conference keynote announcement that Mac OS X Leopard will ship in late 2006/early 2007. In addition, just today, Gartner says Windows Vista has slipped yet again and targets a Windows Vista release in the April-June quarter of 2007! In short, Enderle's scribblings and the material that regularly exits the rear end of a bull are genetically identical.

Unfortunately, Enderle continues, "If this Leopard vs. Vista scenario plays out this will place the most competitive Mac OS in history -- on aggressively designed Intel based hardware -- against what may be the most competitively exposed Microsoft desktop OS since Windows Millennium Edition in the market, in the fourth quarter of 2007. If Apple can't at least double its small share during this unique event it should abandon the Mac OS as a dead end, because this kind of opportunity will never come again. If it does double share, which it could do by cutting a broad swath through the consumer market with a well designed media center-like product, it could dramatically change the market and remind the Linux folks that the desktop isn't about FOSS -- it's about selling the products consumers want to buy. 2008 will be a critical year for Apple, Microsoft, and the Linux contingent. If Apple can't significantly expand its presence by then in the PC market it is likely going to be finished with this segment. Its likely path in that case will be to focus more aggressively on the consumer electronics market it currently dominates."

MacDailyNews Take: Apple is profitable with the current Mac unit sales and market share. Sheesh. This idea of mainstreaming in the field of technology "writers" really has to be rethought. It's clearly not working out.

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Related MacDailyNews articles:
Gartner: Microsoft Windows Vista slips again to June 2007 - May 02, 2006
Mossberg: Apple's Mac OS X Leopard will allow Windows Vista to run on Macs - April 27, 2006
Apple ready to take back market share; may debut Windows virtualization in Mac OS X Leopard - April 21, 2006
Apple confirms 'sneak peek preview' of Mac OS X Leopard at WWDC 2006 this August - April 18, 2006
Apple to unleash Leopard on Microsoft's Windows Longhorn; Mac OS X 10.5 due late 2006 - early 2007 - June 07, 2005

Big surprise: Enderle was wrong about Apple's holiday quarter Mac sales - January 19, 2006
Enderle admits Apple's switch to Intel not hurting Mac sales, says Apple 'has never looked stronger' - December 08, 2005
Tech pundit Enderle: 'Microsoft wrote the first Mac OS' - September 28, 2005
Enderle: 'Surveys indicate demand for Apple's products is dropping like a rock' due to Intel switch - August 01, 2005
Tech Pundit Enderle: 'This year will be more difficult for Apple Computer' and iMacs in earthquakes - January 24, 2005
For more "Enderlunacy," search for "Enderle" in the search box at the bottom of any page of the site.

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May 02, 06 - 02:45 pm Comment from: maczealot

Enderle:

Apple will double its sales of Macs if you will
increase yer intelligence by 100%. I'm not holding my breath.

May 02, 06 - 02:48 pm Comment from: andy

haha, o.k., 'this opportunity will never come again', - this opportunity will be never ending, there wont be another major windows release after vista, look how long it took, its crumbling under its own weight.

May 02, 06 - 02:48 pm Comment from: Don.

Would look a lot nicer if you fix the grammar on that first sentence in the MDN take. Gotta busta cap inna one a them "IS"!

May 02, 06 - 02:49 pm Comment from: truth hurts

I know you guys don't want to hear this, but the hated Enderle is right on.

Surprised MDN keeps putting him up. Death wish?

May 02, 06 - 02:49 pm Comment from: e

Enderle needs DEVELOPING DEVELOPING DEVELOPING DEVELOPING

May 02, 06 - 02:50 pm Comment from: Jansen

Enderle is an idiot, but so is MDN. Enderle says Apple should abandon Macs if they don't double market share, NOT Apple WILL abandon Macs if they don't... MDN always skews the headlines to fit his whims.

May 02, 06 - 02:50 pm Comment from: Wrong Again

It won't take until 2008 for this to happen. Steve has absolutely no plans to be in the OS business in 2008.

May 02, 06 - 02:51 pm Comment from: Don.

I take that back... thought there was a comma after the whatever, which made me read it wrong. D'oh!!

May 02, 06 - 02:52 pm Comment from: Macaday

Enderle is the top nutter in a sea of ignorant propagandists receiving brown envelopes from Redmond...

'Hey boys, let's try and sow the seeds of Apple giving it all up but for iPod...'

May 02, 06 - 02:53 pm Comment from: Math

maczealot - 100% of zero is still zero!

May 02, 06 - 02:53 pm Comment from: matt

Oh yeah Lepord vs. Vista
Like it's even a contest

Who says we build a big bonfire and just chuck Enderle and Dvork in it

Vista...sheesh

May 02, 06 - 02:57 pm Comment from: Ampar

"it was slated to roll out about the same time as Vista originally was"

I didn't realize that Leopard was originally planned for release five years ago. I learn new things every day. Thanks, Rob.

May 02, 06 - 02:57 pm Comment from: G-Man in B'ham

There are a lot of iffy opinions in that article. 'If' Leopard comes out at the same time as Vista and 'if' Apple can't double its market share, then Apple 'should' quit the OS business.

I wonder 'if' Enderle thought about what should happen 'if' the opposite happens? 'If' Leopard comes out before Vista and 'if' Apple can double its market share, then Microsoft 'should' quit the OS business. Now why didn't he write about that?

May 02, 06 - 02:59 pm Comment from: Ampar

Another one for the steaming death knell pile.

May 02, 06 - 03:00 pm Comment from: bobby Skinner

What an idiot.

Which OS seems to be on the way up?

Which company seems to be less troubled?

The truth is that Apple's market share has nearly doubled and will most likely more than double again. OS X Tiger is now the measuring stick by which all other OSes are judged. In the mean time Microsoft is trying to figure out how to remain profitable in a shrinking market.

Check out the chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AAPL&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=MSFT

OK, tell me which company is declining?

Which company is finally advertising their systems (OS) and which instead talks about the programs written for their OS?

The press still has not quite figured out that Leopard is in fact going to beat Vista/longhorn to the market - when they do it will get huge press. After WWDC you will find Microsoft trying to get positive news as they will be only mentioned in how they failed to beat yet another Apple OS to market.

Apple will never abandon the Mac ... But MS may discover that they can't weather the storm that lay ahead for them!

May 02, 06 - 03:01 pm Comment from: mugwump

He's simply trolling for hits -- what a whore!

May 02, 06 - 03:08 pm Comment from: ppc

Talk about twisted logic... A 4th grader could write better. No, make it a 3rd grader.
Leopard will be previewed next August.
Man, the world is full of morons, what a sad state we're in.

May 02, 06 - 03:08 pm Comment from: Das Rea Liszt

Alright, Enderle is a tool. But I do agree with his assertion that this is a unique opportunity for Apple. The facts are depressing, namely:

-XP is 5 years old, and showing it, and STILL has 90% of the Market

-XP users are preoccupied by necessity with security, and XP STILL has 90% of the market

-PC boxes are ugly, poorly designed and are backed with poorer customer service, and XP STILL has 90% of the market.

-Microsoft tops lists of least-trusted brands, and XP STILL has 90% of the market

-Vista's enhancements, modest though they may be, will be earth-shattering news to PC users, because they STILL have 90% of the market and are utterly unaware of what features Apple has. They care about what Apple has like Americans care that gas costs twice as much in Europe...in other words, they don't care at all.

Regardless of who's OS is better, Vista WILL take share away from Apple. So the challenge is to increase Mac sales now as a buffer, but to do so profitably. I'm glad they are finally moving on advertising. Keep it up!

May 02, 06 - 03:09 pm Comment from: DLMeyer

Don,
you are mistaken: break it down like computer code - which is what it really is - and you'll see each "is" is serving a function.

T.H.Troll,
you wouldn't recognize "truth" if it kissed you on the lips - or performed some other act you've never before been party to.

Enderle has two points - maybe his wife put them there? - and they are:
1) Apple ought to be able to significantly increase its market share due to this 'opportunity' created by Microsoft's failure-to-ship what was once perceived to be a competitive OS.
2) Apple ought to delay shipping its own OS update to insure they have:
- a) squashed as many bugs as possible
- b) tweaked the code to be as tight as possible
- c) included as many features as possible

Neither of these is a make-or-break benchmark for Apple, just opportunity knocking.

May 02, 06 - 03:09 pm Comment from: Al Jazzoo

If Enderle can't stop writing FUD to gain hit traffic, he will soon go offine and DIE!!!

I have forseen this.

May 02, 06 - 03:10 pm Comment from: Enderle

uhhhhh uhhh...
if I can't
DOUBLE MY
uhhhhhhh
POOOOOOOOOO
then
uhhhhh
it
uhh
won't
uhhhhh
COME OUT
UHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!

May 02, 06 - 03:12 pm Comment from: Shaun

Enderle is a tool.

May 02, 06 - 03:12 pm Comment from: Frank

Jobs is not going to exit the OS business. That's just a stupid comment. If anyone should actually exit, it's probably Microsoft. They can't ship Vista... and even when they do, I can't imagine it will be very usable. Vista will probably be the equivalent of 10.0-10.1. The problem is, Mac users knew what they were getting into when adopting 10.0. Windows users purchasing new computers loaded with Vista will not...

May 02, 06 - 03:14 pm Comment from: Al Jazzoo

Apple needs to beat it's security programmers with a board full of rusty nails right now.

I won't say why, you'll know if it makes the press tommorow.

It's bad, really bad.

May 02, 06 - 03:14 pm Comment from: Georgy Porgy

If Apple does delay Leopard until mid-2007, it will only be in order to further kick Vistas butt with yet even more features to really drive in the stake. I know nothing, but I predict a pre-Christmas release. Look at the 14 million iPods sold during Christmastime after a video iPod release last last fall. That is an opportunity too good to pass up if Leopard is ready.

May 02, 06 - 03:16 pm Comment from: JFBIII

He is a whore...I just finished in his mouth.

May 02, 06 - 03:23 pm Comment from: ndelc

Comical Rob E. would LOOOOVE that to happen, I'm sure. Geeez, I wonder why he hates Apple so much? Maybe he rode in an elevator with Jobs or something?

May 02, 06 - 03:29 pm Comment from: Jooop

What Rob "Linux users are terrorists" Enderle doesn't seem to realize is that, Steve Jobs hates talking about and demonstrating a product that isn't very, very close to release. Microsoft prefers to make wild claims about things they're working on to be released three years from now that never come to fruition bearing any resemblence to the original claims.

When Steve Jobs gets up on stage and talks about Apple's roadmap of upcoming products, you know he's on target and the product is very, very close to shipping. Sure, it's a short roadmap, never looking further ahead than the next few months, but at least it's an accurate map. Microsft provides roadmaps out years into the future, that are always completely, utterly, and totally wrong.

Go suck it, Enderle. Aren't you the same guy that said Tiger was a ripoff of Microsof't powerpoint slides for Longhorn?

Oh, and what, exactly, is "Apple Leopard"? Twat.

May 02, 06 - 03:29 pm Comment from: SirROM

Enderle (rhymes with "girlie") stated:

"which it could do by cutting a broad swath through the consumer market with a well designed media center-like product."

Well, there you have it: Apple will NEVER produce a media center Mac. He is a rumor site because everything he says is guaranteed NOT to happen.

May 02, 06 - 03:31 pm Comment from: Dave

EVERYONE is talking about Vista. It ain't happening.
NOBODY is talking about Leopard. It is happening.

May 02, 06 - 03:39 pm Comment from: mudflapper

Yes, Mac is abandoning the Mac if it doesn't double it's market share.

Just like BMW.

You know, just because there isn't 500,000,000 of something doesn't mean it's not successful. Sheesh.

May 02, 06 - 03:42 pm Comment from: S.N.A.F.U.

Enderle's unsuccessful attempt at a Jobs-like RDF, Steve should sue for copyright infringement!

wink

But seriously what is this guy smoking?

May 02, 06 - 03:52 pm Comment from: John

Enderle really needs a job at the Enquirer Magazine. His baloney stories are right up there alley.

May 02, 06 - 03:54 pm Comment from: Joseph

Who is this Enderle that writes:

"uhhhhh uhhh...
if I can't
DOUBLE MY
uhhhhhhh
POOOOOOOOOO
then
uhhhhh
it
uhh
won't
uhhhhh
COME OUT
UHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!"

Who could it be?
Could it be the real Enderle?

May 02, 06 - 03:54 pm Comment from: mudflapper

Sorry, meant to say APPLE is abandoning the Mac.

May 02, 06 - 04:03 pm Comment from: Just passing through

Hey Das, wake up a smell das roses, Windows holds 90%. Not everybody that runs Windows is running XP. Consumers do because the box comes with it pre-loaded. Business implementation is another story.

May 02, 06 - 04:08 pm Comment from: Miguel Ricarte

Apple already delivered Mac OS X 10.2, the first FAST new OS X long, long time ago.

Don´t compare Vista to Mac OS X 10.5.

We already won that race at the time 10.2 was delivered. Dot.

May 02, 06 - 04:29 pm Comment from: justified

What's the difference between Vista and Leopard?

Microsoft employees are excited about Leopard.

May 02, 06 - 04:34 pm Comment from: zupchuck

How much does MDN get paid to link to Enderle's various articles?

The guy's a paid shill. Just don't bother. Seriously, I guy who's afraid his iMac might tip over and shatter in an earthquake (but not worried about his even more expensive plasma flat-panel TVs doing the same) is just poking bees nests with sticks.

Ignore him and he'll go away. He exists because you read his crap.

May 02, 06 - 04:40 pm Comment from: TT

I hear GM is abandoning cars..

and president bush is abandoning killing innocent soldiers...

right.....

May 02, 06 - 04:48 pm Comment from: macromancer

When it rolls out in MacWorld in January I'm going to have a Leopard themed cake sent to Mr Enturdly and it will bear the enscription "won't show up until late 2007"

May 02, 06 - 04:57 pm Comment from: Rick

Y si mi abuela tuviera ruedas, sería bicicleta.

And if my grandma had wheels, would be a bycicle.

MW: Schools as in: This guy must be in all schools... in pieces, as a case study.

May 02, 06 - 05:05 pm Comment from: macromancer

"against what may be the most competitively exposed Microsoft desktop OS since Windows Millennium Edition in the market,"

Now I know this guy is a f8cktard. Windows ME!?!?! You've got to be kidding.

May 02, 06 - 05:13 pm Comment from: Non Jazoo

Hey Al Jazoo,

I wondered when your little trolling self would show up. But oyu need to try harder; that last one wasn't even worm bait...

Come on -- post again -- I need a good laugh...

May 02, 06 - 05:47 pm Comment from: MacDaddy

Leopard is being previewed at WWDC2006. So, Enderle can kiss my rear end!

May 02, 06 - 05:49 pm Comment from: neomonkey

Of course Vista is being delayed again. MS needs time to copy from Leopard, but Apple would be smart to delay Leopard so that they can't.

May 02, 06 - 05:50 pm Comment from: lbuschjr

That's right, Enderle. Apple, if it doesn't double it's market share (from which Apple profits at about 25% on it's Mac products, give or take), Apple should just shut the whole thing down.

Lay off the engineers.

No more updates to iMovie, Final Cut Pro, etc.

No more cool designs that get the tech world buzzing and Mac faithful to buy new equipment they don't need.

No more $4-$5 billion in ye ol' bank account.

That's right, just become the iPod company. How's that for long-term sustainability?

So how much Microsoft stock does Enderle own?

May 02, 06 - 06:05 pm Comment from: Candyman

MDN, can you just not post anything from this turkey? I'm more interested in relevant Mac discussion.

May 02, 06 - 06:11 pm Comment from: jo jo the dancer

Crack .... it's gotta be crack!

May 02, 06 - 06:12 pm Comment from: LinuxGuy

Alzheimers?

May 02, 06 - 06:23 pm Comment from: zupchuck

I get a kick out of Enderle's continued slight's against Apple by always tying OS X development to what Vista was originally intended to be. Don't folks get credit for what they delivered in the business world, not for what they dreamed of delivering?

Clearly the man doesn't understand software development (or even what a OS vs. application is when he MS helped write the original Mac OS, but then later changed the text after the fallout). OSes may have similar 30,000 ft views, but implementation is in the details. And Enderle doesn't really have to provide any in his position as paid shill for MS and SCOX.

I think Enderle must have had a run-in with Steve Jobs. Probably after he published his controversial paper predicting the decline in Apple's market share way back when. He's pretty much been down on Apple since.

There's a revealing comment in http://www.technewsworld.com/story/35891.html where he says:
"I don't like religious zealots either, but I'll wait until I retire to comment on them."

If anything, it shows Enderle is a survivor (and perhaps SJ has a brutal a reputation towards finishing careers as is rumored). He obviously strike a chord with a large number of folks.

If only because his opinions mattered, and not because they generate a morbid curiousity like a car wreck on the side of the road.

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