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Jan 23, 08 - 09:12 am Comment from: TowerTone

" AAPL is a steal"

That's what Eve said....

Jan 23, 08 - 09:12 am Comment from: JadisOne

Finally an article with some sense and not panic, speculation and fear mongering.

Jan 23, 08 - 09:13 am Comment from: January 24, 1984

Buying more today.

Jan 23, 08 - 09:13 am Comment from: silverhawk

Having 18.7 billion in the bank is a wonderful hedge against a recession.

Jan 23, 08 - 09:19 am Comment from: iSteve

"Having 18.7 billion in the bank is a wonderful hedge against a recession."

Yeah, that is what I was thinking too. Combine that with being debt free and they are in the best position to ride out any recession.

recession, yeah, right...

I could have told you that. Maybe I should become an "expert".

Jan 23, 08 - 09:50 am Comment from: MCCFR

I'm still trying to work out what parallel universe I'm living in where a forecast (at around 8:40 of yesterday's conference call) of 29% sales growth ($5.264 billion growing to $6.9 billion) is considered weak, especially when the growth between Q2 '06 and Q2 '07 was only 20.76%.

We appear to now be in a situation where the level of expectation on Apple is becoming totally unrealistic: they could have announced that Apple had solved the problem of cold fusion yesterday and the bears would still have found a reason to cause havoc.

Jan 23, 08 - 10:00 am Comment from: Rich Apple person

Apple stock took a beating yesterday despite the best quarter in the companies history. Why? Well if you read between the lines there are not going to be any major new products this year from Apple and there will be no new software for OSX. Leopard is it for 2008 although there might be updated patches with minor improvements. This is what happens when you become more of a media company then a computer company and should send up a warning flag to all Mac users.



The Mac has been gaining in market share over the last 12 months and why not? Windows Vista is a major disappointment and a lot of people are switching to Mac's rather than upgrading their PC's. Leopard was released late primarily due to lack of resources as Apple concentrated on the iPhone. That should have been a major warning alarm to the people at Apple but it now seems that the next major release of OSX will not happen in 2008. This of course is great news for Microsoft as it gives them a chance to play catchup with the new Windows OS which is due in 2009. Leopard may see some minor updates but it seems that there is no major update planned at all for 2008.


True the iMac's were just updated with a new look and slim keyboard but if Apple is to continue to make inroads into the PC market share then they are going to need to continue to innovate and that means that OSX will also need to continue to evolve. I guess I was expecting a new OSX every year but then that would have required resources and a devotion to the Mac base rather than to the studios and AT&T;. I read this morning that one analyst, after a call with Apple, now feels that there will not be any new additions to the MAC product line this year or to OSX for all of 2008 and early 2009. "We expect upgrades periodically to Leopard but we don't see any major upgrades to OSX within the next 14 months....

In a bad bear, Apple is not insulated from anything: it will fall as hard as any other stock. There are many reasons why "good" stocks are sold in a bear market. But, when the market turns up, AAPL will be among the first to skyrocket.

For those getting giddy about buying AAPL now because it is a "steal," just be careful: to paraphrase, "if it looks like a steal now, imagine how great a steal it will be when it's at 100."

Any chance AAPL hit $100? Imagine that... an opportunity to triple your money in the next 2 years. You feel like yelling at wall street "C'mon guys, just keep on panicking!!!!!!!"

That only proves that numbers have nothing to do with it.
Brokers manipulate the market and they need an excuse when someone asks why did you dump Apple shares. They wait till stock gets high, then dump it to cash in, no matter how good company does, then they come up with excuses, oh, outlook is bleek, oh, analyst expected more, oh, housing market is bad, oh, my ass itches. Then they wait for all that got scared to dump their shares and they buy back really cheap. F$#@ bastards.

Exactly. Apple will do very well when the market legitimately turns up. But it's the old adage of catching a falling knife.

IF this really is the beginning of a bear market, AAPL has further to fall; there may be rallies, but there's still a LOT of downside potential to this market.

Look, I owned the second Mac model ever sold -- the 512K Mac released in 1984; I've only bought Macs ever since; I bought a Macbook last month, and I just ordered a Mac Pro with a 23" cinema display, so I'm hardly an Apple basher. I'm just saying that we are in a very weak market now, possibly a longer term bear (not the mention the horrendous mismanagement and appalling state of our economy), and where the market goes, so goes the vast majority of all stocks.

Jan 23, 08 - 10:14 am Comment from: dd

I hope AAPL keeps dropping for at least a few more months, so I can buy some handfuls of shares. AAPL will head back up eventually. Wall Street is full of morons.

One more thing, the only ones who are loosing are regular Joes like us.
Brokers make money anyways, sell or buy. They have first hand information and they use it.

Jan 23, 08 - 10:21 am Comment from: Ampar

"Well if you read between the lines there are not going to be any major new products this year from Apple and there will be no new software for OSX."

What lines? Cite your sources or STFU.

And WWDC, June, 2008 will be what then? A concert? A Star Trek movie marathon?

"I read this morning that one analyst, after a call with Apple, now feels that there will not be any new additions to the MAC product line this year or to OSX for all of 2008 and early 2009."

Yeah, that's convincing. Maybe he was referring to Media Access Control.

Apple is a Steal?
What is it a joke of what, have you seen the quote market, it's -10
c'mon

Apple has no new blockbuster products in the foreseeable future.

At MacWorld it´s big announcement was a very high-priced, designer notebook computer for a very, very small group of buyers. (And Apple TV - no matter how they try to re-invent it is a small market product.).

Apple is now in coast mode and the market sees it. Nothing new and exciting going to happen at Apple this year so better to put the money somewhere else and get a better return.

@Rob

But nobody seems to complain when manipulation drives the market up. There are many styles of trading, some people are in for the long haul, and some have a shorter horizon. Why NOT ride AAPL up and then sell when it looks like its topping (buy low, sell high...)? There are many technical traders who do just that.

And, despite what our government says, our economy really is in appalling shape. If this is a bear market, it's probably overdue, and it will have to run its course. No "stimulus package" will have any lasting effect. We've gotten so greedy and desperate for instant gratification that we seem to have forgotten that markets have cycles, the root of which is credit expansion and credit contraction. And if we haven't had horrendous credit expansion over the last few years, then I don't know what you'd call the housing mess, the 9+ trillion dollars in debt we're facing (much of it to Asia, and many nations much poorer than we are). Even the "stimulus package" everyone keeps talking about will be financed by other countries, adding to our national debt and increasing inflation. This country needs between two and four billion dollars each day in foreign money to keep our economy afloat. And when we drop interest rates (which seems to make everyone so giddy) we reduce the incentive for foreign nations to invest in our country, which is something we desperately need right now. Our investment banks are in such bad shape that they're selling themselves to the highest foreign bidder. And with the roughly two trillion we owe to just China and Japan, how much autonomy do we still have over our own economy? The dollar has lost about 40% (I think that's the number) of its value since Bush took office, and about 99% of its value since the Federal Reserve Act became law in 1912. We've removed ourself from the gold standard in a quest for easy money and exorbitant spending, the sources and reporting of which can be easily hidden and manipulated... The final cost of the Iraq war is estimated to be about $2 trillion after all is said and done, all of which has been financed with borrowed, foreign money that we will be paying back for the rest of our grandchildren's grandchildren's lives... And this is just part of our whole mess.

I hope this is not a bear market, but there are plenty of reasons why it might, and should, be.

Jan 23, 08 - 10:45 am Comment from: Ampar

"Nothing new and exciting going to happen at Apple this year . . ."

Your FUD schtick and baseless trolling about the future is getting old.

You are obviously a very desperate astroturfer.

"a very high-priced, designer notebook"

Sounds like Ballmer isn't paying you enough.

Here's to hoping the 2008 WWDC will be a Star Trek Movie Marathon!

Jan 23, 08 - 11:36 am Comment from: Ampar

JTK: Or Clint Eastwood.

Ampar - Wowza, you getting a tad bit excited or what?

What great new, products - potentially equivalent to an iPod or iPhone in sales success did Apple announce recently?
Answer: None.
Apple TV has been out for quite a while new. It got a software update and a drop in price (less revenue for Apple) because it was a dud.
A new notebook (MBA) is just an evolution of its other new notebooks. Looks nice, but Nothing new, exciting that the masses want or can afford.
The MBA is high priced and a designer notebook for people with lots of money to spend for a thin notebook that looks cool. What is your problem with that? You don´t think it is high priced? You don´t think it is nicely designed?

The bottom line, Ampar, is that Apple stock has dropped $60 because lots of people don´t think Apple can maintain the buzz that it had to get the stock to nearly $200. (Did Microsoft or Dell drop that much in the same time period?)
----------------
Personally, I think Jobs made a mistake by not splitting the stock when it was up in the stratosphere. When it was at $150 he should have split it 3 ways.

Who are all the losers posting nonsense on this thread? The economy will most likely NOT enter a recession (see the CBO analysis released today) and, in any case, Apple is well-positioned for AT LEAST 25%-30% annual growth for the next several years. The Mac Book Air will be a very profitable niche computer filling a gaping hole in the Apple line-up (sub-notebook for road warriors). The Mac will continue to gobble up market share, which can drive growth even if overall computer sales stall. Further, renting movies will be HUGE for Apple, driving large sales of Apple TV boxes. Apple is now poised to take over the living room--the holy grail for tech companies for the last 5 years--don't you guys get it?!?!

Jan 23, 08 - 12:00 pm Comment from: shen

"Who are all the losers posting nonsense on this thread? The economy will most likely NOT enter a recession (see the CBO analysis released today)"

well, i married an economist, and guess who she hangs out with. even more economists. and guess what. out of hundreds of PhD's in the field, many from places like Harvard, the outlook i am getting from them is not all that certain. don't count on it.....

having said that, Apple is sitting well, and as Appleinsider pointed out, the MBA is far nicer than the gloom and doomers are saying, and will likely sell very well. the Apple market is growing, almost faster than it should in my opinion, and movie rentals may very well take off. i agree, they are winning the war for living room, something a lot of companies have tried and failed spectacularly at.

but Apple is NOT the entire economy. and the entire economy looks bad from here.

Jan 23, 08 - 12:06 pm Comment from: Ampar

Paul H.:

You missed the point entirely. Let me explain. You may have been unimpressed by the recent MacWorld. I disagree but that's your prerogative. I have already enjoyed iTS movie rentals.

Here's the point. Pay attention.

The bullshit FUD statement and obvious astroturfing is the clearly stated implication that Apple has nothing planned for the rest of this year (like WWDC 2008) or the foreseeable future.

That's just psychotic. And a troll.

We are all given a new last chance.
Hurry while stock lasts.

Yared: Last chance to buy Apple shares under $175
Sunday, November 25, 2007
http://macdailynews.com/index.php/weblog/comments/15603/

Yared: Last chance to buy Apple shares under $150
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
http://macdailynews.com/index.php/weblog/comments/14948/

The nasdaq index is down 3%, AAPL is down 17%. This is a panic. I think this is being driven by programmed trading (currently 40% of all trades). Hedge funds love volatility. They dump AAPL, small investors get out, then they buy back low. Pump the money out of the small investors.

Jan 23, 08 - 01:08 pm Comment from: Dialtone

I'm very satisfied with my Apple products, new and old. The only new product I can't wait to see this year is a Democrat elected to the White House.

You said, "What great new, products - potentially equivalent to an iPod or iPhone in sales success did Apple announce recently?
Answer: None."

You really are missing the point aren't you. Thats OK. Microsoft and others have been missing the point for years. Go check out their stock. I hear that they have a great new Media Center (Home Server) computer thats just like their old MCC but it has a "new" sticker on it. You would like that.

For those that do not see whats coming:
Apple is slowly and carefully (but not perfectly - hey, Steve is human too!) putting together the home/small business computer center of the future and its mostly here today.

EVERY THING JUST WORKS!!! You do not need an IT dept to make everything talk to each other. Get video here, run it there, and there, and there. Get a DVD and get a free iPod movie with it, automatically. Run it on any tv or computer screen.

MUSIC, Video, TV, cell phone (everything from ring tones to music and video), computers, Google maps, Youtube, e-mail, homemade videos, -------
In short ----- E V E R Y T H I N G --- you want and need to use will just work together. Just buy Apple / iTunes and go to town.

The tide has already changed and its coming in fast.

Nuff said.

en

MDN = large. As in "This is going to be Large"

Jan 23, 08 - 01:24 pm Comment from: DLMeyer

OK, Apple has nothing "big" in the wind for 2008. 10.5.2 isn't "big", is it? Well ... maybe middle-sized. How about a new iMac featuring the Core2Quad chip? If Gateway can put them in ~$600 desktops, Apple can put them in ~$1,600 iMacs. Or $999 Mac minis. Or was that ad I read all fluff and half the cores?
And, what about the MBA-inspired updates to the MB and MBP? The better trackpad and LED screens?
Don't forget ... the MBA may not sell like hot-cakes (or, maybe it will) but it will draw people in to the Apple Stores where they get to test-drive the more cost-efficient models - and perhaps buy one. The MBA doesn't actually have to sell any MBAs to drive profit, it only has to drive SALES. If it can do that, all this Cube2.0 talk is just so much wind ... wind in OUR "sales".
Dave

I think what the Rich Apple Person might be referring to was a question from an analyst, asking for how CFO Oppenheimer came to his 1st Q guidance. Oppenheimer basically said it was similar to last year.

In other words, he didn't hint at any new product disruptions which might affect earnings. Of course, this was only referring to Q1, so it does not mean that Apple won't introduce new Macbooks or Powerbooks or MacPros in future quarters like Q2 or 3 or 4.

Personally, I think Apple is in a consolidation phase. It needs to keep rolling out the iPhone to new markets, and bring the 3G version. It needs to intro the MBA, and refresh its other lines. It may be a bit of a bore compared to the iPhone release last year, but consolidation of gains is important to show sustainability.

Do these people realize Apple gets $450 for each phone it sells? Selling 8 million more of those this year, will add $3.6B in revenues. Do they realize Apple has deferred almost $1B of iPhone revs from this quarter? Add that on top of the $9.6B in sales and you get a blowout number.

I forgot to mention Apple has strong international sales, which has the double benefit of insulating a domestic downturn, but also you get the exchange rate benefit as the USD continues to stay low.

"...but it now seems that the next major release of OSX will not happen in 2008"

Wow, and I thought Steve Jobs had a reality distortion field. Apple has said previously that they are targeting an 18-month cycle for releasing new versions of Mac OS X, which would put the successor to Leopard at around May 2009 by plan. It's unlikely the market would support a faster release schedule than that.

But you should think about becoming an analyst. Their main job seems to be to pull expectations out of their butts with no basis for supporting them, then scream gloom and doom when they aren't met. Good start.

Apple needs iPod sales, they account for almost half their revenue. The risk is that in a slowing economy people aren't so keen to update their iPods every year.

Let me sum up the stock crisis in a few words:

We're no strangers to love
You know the rules and so do I
A full commitment's what I'm thinking of
You wouldn't get this from any other guy

I just wanna tell you how I'm feeling
Gotta make you understand

* Never gonna give you up
Never gonna let you down
Never gonna run around and desert you
Never gonna make you cry
Never gonna say goodbye
Never gonna tell a lie and hurt you

We've know each other for so long
Your heart's been aching
But you're too shy to say it
Inside we both know what's been going on
We know the game and we're gonna play it

And if you ask me how I'm feeling
Don't tell me you're too blind to see

(* repeat)

give you up. give you up
give you up, give you up
never gonna give
never gonna give, give you up
never gonna give
never gonna give, five you up

I just wanna tell you how I'm feeling
Gotta make you understand

(* repeat 3 times)

Jan 24, 08 - 09:26 am Comment from: AlanAudio

@Rich Apple person "Well if you read between the lines there are not going to be any major new products this year from Apple"

How can you possibly come to that conclusion when we're still in January ?

Reading between the lines is something that is notoriously unreliable for observers of Apple. I could just as easily read between the lines and claim that there is every chance of major new products such as a tablet Mac, a new PowerBook range, new iMacs and of course new iPods after the summer. There is also the next version of the iPhone to look forward to, particularly for sales in Europe where 3G is more widespread. Then add in the potential for revenues from movie rentals, together with the on-going revenue from the iPhone and you could come to the conclusion that Apple has many exciting major product launches to come during 2008.