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Forget the iPod’s halo; the real Mac sales will come when people face Windows Vista upgrade decision
Monday, January 16, 2006 - 04:52 PM EST

"Some analysts think there will be as many as 9 to 10 million Macintelatoshes this year, which would be about 2.5 times as many as the 4 million Macs in 2005. That's a hell of a ramp, and Apple's never shown an inclination to flood a tight market with units," Doug Mohney writes for The Inquirer. "By the way, is Intel so desperate for increased business that 1) their CEO needs to dress up in a bunny suit to show up at MacWorld 2) Give Apple first dibs on the Duo Core in its new machines and 3) Having committed these two acts of submission, then let Apple ignore Viiv and instead say 'Hey, we've freed the chip from the box?' Andy Grove would have NEVER worn a bunny suit for Mr. Jobs. It being San Francisco, Otellini should feel lucky he wasn't handed a costume including black leather chaps."

Forget about the iPod Halo Effect says Mohney, "The real pull-through will come when people start thinking about their options when Windows Vista comes to market sometime this year. Since it's going to be the 'Largest upgrade since Windows '95,' according to Microsoft, that likely means a big hardware upgrade for nearly everything that was produced before July 1, 2005. People are going to go down to their Big Box store, look at the expensive, still-ugly PCs and the nice-looking Macs, compare the two side-by-side. They'll take a cursory look at the user interfaces between Vista and the Mac and see, well, they look pretty much alike and they have the same chips in them and the Mac can run PC software in emulation (and maybe later more directly in some fashion) but the PC can't run Mac-ware."

"A lot of people are going to realize they are going to hang onto their hardware for four to five years, so they might be willing to shell out a little more cash up front and buy the better looking Mac-intelatosh," Mohney writes. "Exactly how many will switch remains to be seen, however. There are also a chunk of people who are running Windows 98 SE and a lot of Windows XP users that have no rush to get into Vista. On the other hand, aiding and abetting Apple is a large fifth column of journalists around the globe that are unabashedly Mac-worshippers. You can spot them pretty clearly when they start talking about Windows, they've dropped 'poor security' and 'bloated' into the conversation by the second sentence.

"The real winner in all of this is Intel," Mohney writes. "While Dell, HP, and other manufacturers expand their use of AMD chips, Apple comes on board with a hotter-looking box and a 100 percent (for now) loyalty to Chipzilla. You don't hear Apple talking about AMD chips, hmm? And Intel doesn't have to share marketing money with Apple! Mr. Otellini, I apologize for the bunny suit remarks."

Mohney has more in his full article here.

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Related articles:
Is there really an Apple 'iPod Halo Effect' behind Mac sales or not? - November 17, 2005
Analyst: 'there are definitely a lot of people joining Apple Mac ecosystem for the first time' - November 08, 2005
Analyst estimates over a million Windows to Mac switchers during 2005's first three quarters - November 07, 2005
Microsoft executives acknowledge Apple's 'iPod Halo Effect' - July 29, 2005
RealMoney: Apple's iPod Halo Effect 'quite profound,' Macs taking good market share from Wintel - June 27, 2005
The Street's Wolverton: Apple's iPod halo shines - July 19, 2005
Needham & Co: Apple 'iPod Halo Effect' fueling Mac purchases; predict 43 million iPod sales in 2006 - July 18, 2005
Comprehensive survey shows 'iPod Halo Effect' is increasing Apple Mac sales, market share - July 12, 2005
SG Cowen survey shows evidence of a significant iPod halo effect boosting Apple Mac sales - July 12, 2005
Merrill Lynch: Mac sales 'appear robust,' expects futher evidence of 'iPod Halo Effect' - July 07, 2005
Morgan Stanley: Apple's 'iPod Halo Effect' is 'roughly double what the market expects' - March 18, 2005
Apple execs now see 'iPod Halo Effect' clearly paying off with higher Macintosh sales - January 13, 2005
IDC VP Roger Kay sees no evidence of Apple 'iPod Halo Effect' based on 'Apple's desktop share' - January 10, 2005

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Jan 16, 06 - 05:02 pm Comment from: DakRoland

"Macintelatoshes"?

There your WTF for the day.

Jan 16, 06 - 05:05 pm Comment from: Macs King

Come on AAPL. Papa needs a new pair of shoes.... I mean processors.

Jan 16, 06 - 05:05 pm Comment from: G Spank

Yah. Ummm, Apple better have their computers at reasonably competitive prices (+$200 to equivalent Dell) if they expect to make inroads during this MASSIVE opportunity. I wouldn't hold my breath.

Jan 16, 06 - 05:06 pm Comment from: Joe the Farmer

I have to wonder how many people reading articles about Macworld are mussing the "Bunny" vs "Intel Bunny" suit distinction...

MDN MW: "Seven"- Hmm, I guess I have my answer =P

Jan 16, 06 - 05:08 pm Comment from: jay

Enough with the bunny suit. They makie it sound like the Steve asked him to put on pink footie pajamas and a fake nose with whiskers or something. It's the suit his engineers wear to work everyday. I didn't think it made Paul look stupid or weak and can't figure out why everyone thinks they need to start their article with a reference to it. I"m afraid it's going to make him feel bitter about coopoerating with steve, when he really should just feel bitter about journalists need to start their article with something funny and unrelated to their topic.

Jan 16, 06 - 05:11 pm Comment from: RePlay

" On the other hand, aiding and abetting Apple is a large fifth column of journalists around the globe that are unabashedly Mac-worshippers. You can spot them pretty clearly when they start talking about Windows, they've dropped "poor security" and "bloated" into the conversation by the second sentence."

OK. So when journalist report the facts and tell people that Windows has poor security and is, according to most industry insiders, is bloated, then they are aiding and abetting Apple. So what did it mean when by the second sentence they were all calling Apple beleagered, and had no software, and was too expensive, and too slow and too proprietary?

Read with intelligence people. The rest will take care of itself.

Jan 16, 06 - 05:12 pm Comment from: little man

Who put the bop in my bop-shoo-bop-shoo-bop?

Who put the ram in my Mac-in-tel-a-ram-a-lam-a-ding-dong-a-tosh?

This guy's hilarious!

Jan 16, 06 - 05:22 pm Comment from: moiety5

"Macintelatoshes" ? Boy thats catchy.

[/sarcasm]

Jan 16, 06 - 05:32 pm Comment from: macpaul

what a jester.

Jan 16, 06 - 05:34 pm Comment from: Mr. Bob S.

iPodosians anyone?

Jan 16, 06 - 05:38 pm Comment from: Pierre Burton

Flawed logic.

The segment of the market that is willing to pay $$ for either a new OS and/or a system to run it are more than likely to stick with Windows.

They have their legacy software and workflows to carry over. And if all your computer needs to run Vista is extra RAM or maybe a better graphics card, then that's a lot cheaper than buying a mac and all-new software. It also means not having to learn new workflows.

Lookit, metric is a simpler, less error-prone, more elegant system than US units, and Esperanto is a simpler impler, less error-prone, more elegant language than English. Dvorak keyboards are simpler, less error-prone, and more elegant than Qwerty keyboards.

And so?

To quote the article:

"...so they might be willing to shell out a little more cash up front and buy the better looking Mac..."

Err...then why hasn't that always been true?

Apple's will be delighted profitably grow its market share a little, and to exploit new markets. The OS war is over, folks. Get over it.

Jan 16, 06 - 05:40 pm Comment from: kenh

If the comparison between operating systems happens, and I think it will, Apple had better be able to show why OSX is better than Vista.

If that does not happen, then very little will change.

They are going to have to proactively SHOW PEOPLE THE DIFFERENCE.

Whatever it takes.

Be brave, put it out in front of them in specific terms.

Steve, you started this war with OSX and the change to Intel chips.

Now finish it.

Jan 16, 06 - 05:43 pm Comment from: TDW

There were 4.75 million Macs sold in 2005, not 4 million. But who's counting eh?

Jan 16, 06 - 05:47 pm Comment from: G-ZUS

Geez, that guy is a dillweed. iPod has already led to more people using Macs and a LOT of the new iPod owners from last year got theirs for the holidays so the new switchers from that batch of iPod sales won't come until this year. I have a ton of friends who got iPods and then got Macs, but also a bunch of other friends w/o iPods, but are getting into Macs because of the heightened profile of the Mac from iPod sales and from other iPod users switching...and some of my friends got Macs because of all the hoopla over Tiger and better security than Windows.

http://musobs.blogspot.com

Jan 16, 06 - 05:48 pm Comment from: kenh

RE:"The segment of the market that is willing to pay $$ for either a new OS and/or a system to run it are more than likely to stick with Windows"

Everything I read about Vista will mean that those who want to use Vista will have to buy it all; hardware and operating system, plus probably most software.

Jan 16, 06 - 05:51 pm Comment from: Bob Denver's missing head

Agree with Burton, but for different reasons.

Most consumers didn't buy XP out of a box and install it themselves, they bought XP when they upgraded hardware.

They will buy Vista the same way. And the greater choice, lower initial cost and lower fear factor means they'll buy windows boxes.

So what? Who wants to be part of the herd of idiots?

Jan 16, 06 - 05:52 pm Comment from: Since_IIci

The onslaught is about to begin...

Fasten your seat-belt Maude, we're in for quite a ride!

Jan 16, 06 - 05:56 pm Comment from: Will

Well, as for metric almost the whole world uses it, except a 2-3 hundred million Americans. It is like with football - for more than 90 % of the world it is a game where the ball is played with the feet (hence 'foot') and to touch the ball with the hands while it is still in play, is called 'hands' and requires a penalty from the referee.

Am I off-topic?

Oops, couldn't help it:)

Jan 16, 06 - 05:58 pm Comment from: Barry

Let's just call the new Macs "InteliMac" and be done with it.

Jan 16, 06 - 06:02 pm Comment from: JAGWiRE

Where the hell did he dig up that "Macintelatosh" crap from?? WTF????

Jan 16, 06 - 06:18 pm Comment from: MacMania

I feel kind of sorry for these bitter Mafiasoft fanboys like this so called "journalist".

You better have a good deadbolt lock and shutters in working order when the sham that is Windows Pasta (a.k.a. Stillborn) is finally exposed: There is going to be pandaemonium. gnawing and gnashing of teeth in biblical proportions.

Rock on Steve!
raspberry

Jan 16, 06 - 06:28 pm Comment from: MacDude

With a purposeful grimace and a terrible sound
He pulls the spitting high tension wires down

Chipzilla!!!

Helpless people on a subway train
Scream bug-eyed as he looks in on them

Chipzilla!!!

He picks up a bus and he throws it back down
As he wades through the buildings toward the center of town

Chipzilla!!!

Oh no, they say he’s got to go
Go go Chipzilla, yeah
Oh no, there goes microsofto
Go go Chipzilla, yeah

Oh no, they say he’s got to go
Go go Chipzilla, yeah
Oh no, there goes microsofto
Go go Chipzilla, yeah

History shows again and again
How nature points up the folly of men
Chipzilla!

Jan 16, 06 - 06:30 pm Comment from: mrboma

"...when Windows Vista comes to market sometime this year..."

I'll believe it when I see it.

Jan 16, 06 - 06:43 pm Comment from: macromancer

Theres still one huge factor that he leaves out when people go to make their puchasing decision. They already have all this Windows software. Will it run on a Mac? Therein lies the rub and there you have the real reason behind the Intel switch.

Eliminating this factor is the real motivation.

Jan 16, 06 - 06:45 pm Comment from: Peter

"They have their legacy software and workflows to carry over. And if all your computer needs to run Vista is extra RAM or maybe a better graphics card, then that's a lot cheaper than buying a mac and all-new software. It also means not having to learn new workflows."

Well, sort of.

For businesses, I agree wholeheartedly. For consumers, who want simplicity, it's easier to buy a new computer with Vista than buy the upgrade, the graphics card, the bigger hard drive(?), and extra RAM and install all of it.

I remember reading somewhere that about a year after Windows XP shipped, Microsoft had sold something like one million upgrades. Most people just bought new computers--much less hassle.

Jan 16, 06 - 07:19 pm Comment from: Mr. Reeee

Yeah, Vista will arrive sometime later this year.

December 31, 2006 ... 11:59 pm.

Jan 16, 06 - 07:37 pm Comment from: axel

kenh wrote:
"Everything I read about Vista will mean that those who want to use Vista will have to buy it all; hardware and operating system, plus probably most software."

Then people might as well go Mac. APPLE, GET READY TO MAKE YOUR MOVE!

When Vista is greeted with a collective "WTF?!?!", Apple will have a limited time to land a huge number of switchers. Steve, you've done marketing before, but this will have to be your all-time coup. Make it happen. smile

Jan 16, 06 - 07:47 pm Comment from: axel

"And if all your computer needs to run Vista is extra RAM or maybe a better graphics card, then that's a lot cheaper than buying a mac and all-new software."

It's sadly hilarious to be in a PC store, and seeing a sales drone trying to sell a "Vista-ready" PC, or maybe "for Vista" upgrades.

Um, people, VISTA IS VAPORWARE!! Nobody, not even MS, knows when it'll ship or what the final system requirements will be. SO HOW THE F can anyone prepare for it?? <shaking head> At least with Mac you're buying hardware for the real thing.

Jan 16, 06 - 07:58 pm Comment from: LeopardMan (formerly Tigerman)

Secret Transcript from Microsoft HQ:

"G": So when is Vista gonna be ready for release?

"B": It's ready now. Been ready for months.

"G": So when are we gonna release it?

"B": Well, that's a bit of problem.

"G": Why is it a problem? Wouldn't be the first time we released something with problems. Heck, our beta-testers -- I mean customers -- are used to that.

"B": No, this time it's the competition.

"G": Competition? I thought we took care of that.

"B": Well, you remember how you liked to play that cat-and-mouse game with Apple instead of just finishing them off? Well, after 30 years, they've finally come out with a better product that also has the potential to take away some marketshare from us.

"G": Take away marketshare? Them's fightin' words!

"B": That 's the problem. When we release Vista, now that they're running on Intel chips, people will be able to compare their user experience to ours directly -- and we'll look like 20th Century has-beens. We'll start losing marketshare -- and our smartest customers wil be the first to go.

"G": So you're saying that the sooner we release Vista the sooner our marketshare will start declining?

"B": 'Fraid so. I'm so angry I could hurl a chair.

"G": [sighs] OK. Delay Vista -- again -- and release some new virus toolkits to Sony to keep everyone busy until we can rip off some more stuff from Tiger.

"B": Tiger? You know they're working on Leopard, don't you?

"G": Leopard? Where'd you hear about that?

"B": On a video podcast.

"G": Oh, sh--!

Jan 16, 06 - 08:04 pm Comment from: Thanks jay

You have saved me some typing and phased it much better then I could have done. Please get off this guy's case with the damn suit already. No Commander worth his salt would be ashamed wearing the uniform he sends his troops into the trenches in, he wasn't embarrassed.


/end rant.

Jan 16, 06 - 08:20 pm Comment from: Luke

I really hope that people don't just buy Macs because they are better looking, even though they are. It just seems liike you should buy one because it will be virus-free. I think it's funny that ista already has viruses and patches and it won't even be out for a year (come on folks, let's be realistic).

Jan 16, 06 - 08:32 pm Comment from: winmacguy

@ Will
You might also be aware that Rugby Football was developed at Rugby School for Boys (hence the name)when a young William Webb Ellis picked up the football and ran with it. The game of Rugby is now played all over the world including the US and during the last Grandslam Tour of the Home Countries (England, Ireland, Scotland and Wales) the Mighty All Blacks from little New Zealand kicked all of your proverbial asses of the paddock!

Go Apple.

Jan 16, 06 - 09:11 pm Comment from: KenC

The Inquirer is a Windows rag.

Having said that, I did write recently, something very similar on some Mac comments site, that Steve's plan is to attact Windows users when the Vista decision comes, and to use all of those iPod profits to his advantage.

So, while I ignore the Inquirer website, it does seem to have some good nuggets from time2time.

Jan 16, 06 - 09:39 pm Comment from: Random Coolzip

Nice homophobic "leather chaps" dig. The author is clearly an asswipe.

Jan 16, 06 - 09:59 pm Comment from: The Other Steve

So, if it was called a "space suite" or "clean suite" would writers be criticizing Paul Otellini? Keep in mind that CEO Steve Jobs wasn't wearing a suite and tie either.

Jan 16, 06 - 10:20 pm Comment from: notatotalsucker

People are sheep. They'll continue to buy Windows Pasta under the illusion that it'll give them a sense of security when it comes to having their prior apps running. Of course, that's not the only security they should be looking at these days.

My guess is that more than ever before, Apple has a decent chance at grabbing some market share back, but I think it's unlikely it'll ever exceed 15% in say the next 5 years. but it'll be nice when 1/10 of the people you know has a Mac and not a Windoze box. I for one am sick of being an unofficial help desk for many PC weenies who are too tight and ignorant to buy a better machine in the first place.

Jan 17, 06 - 12:11 am Comment from: mini

an additional issue is that most people will not have the option of comparing a Windows box next to an Apple one; not many retailers carry both.

As far as I know, the list is short: Microcenter and
Bestbuy. And both of them suck at selling Apple computers. Are there others?

Jan 17, 06 - 12:53 am Comment from: SiliconAddict

"People are going to go down to their Big Box store"

Small problem. the vast majority of "Big Box stores" don't carry Macs. Kinda hard to compare when a company like Best Buy has full blow desktops and a a lowly Mac Mini (Which will hopefully be upgraded by then.) Then you have CompUSA's that have Apple resellers tucked into some out of the way corner. Circuit City? Non existent. If Apple wants to sell this fall their need to get off their fat butts and get massive amounts of supplies out there along with advertising the crap out of the Mac on TV. Enough of the fricking iPod. I love my iPod as much as the next guy but this is the year of the Mac damn it! Apple has about a 12-18 month Window here. Once MS starts putting out a service pack or two and starts stabilizing a code base that I'm convinced is going to be much more secure then XP or even 2000 I think the "Its good enough crowd will settle back down into a Windows rutt. I hope and pray for a 7-8% market share by MWSF '07 but I'm not holding my breath.

Jan 17, 06 - 03:35 am Comment from: DJ

Don't know about 'going down to their big box stores and compare'...

...here in the UK, the average PC World (viewed last night as it happens!) has a couple of Macs in a corner, switched on but password-protected and not even a screen-saver to view.

Staff still trot out the same anti-Mac s***t they always have, so it's a pointless exercise that actually does the brand down. Anyway, much of the PCW stock looks to be either dated or pricey -- and what's the point in that kind of association?

Best thing is to pull PCW and leave to committed resellers and Apple Stores.

Jan 17, 06 - 03:45 am Comment from: chris

I really believe Vista is going to be business as usual for microsoft, they aren't going to be able to prevent the security risks associated with using Windows, end of story. Also the system may have a spotlight feature and a makeover but it's still got the same basic GUI, which personally im not keen on. I don't think the trust is there any more with microsoft, even with the great unwashed.

Jan 17, 06 - 07:56 am Comment from: clyde

I don't know. If the new Apple intel products are not able to adequately run windows legacy programs or emulate the older os's (XP, 2000, 98se, etc), then people will continue to buy dells, etc in a year with the same processors and for a couple of hundred dollars cheaper. They will not want to buy more expensive boxes that do not run the programs that they have already invested in (in the case of business, this could mean thousands of dollars) and have learned how to use.

They will believe the statements of MS spin doctors and brightly shirted uniformed mega store employees who tell them that, while XP and its predecessors were chock full of gaping security holes, Vista has 'new and improved' security features.

They will not want to learn advanced programming or download hacks to make their programs work on Apple machines, or take a substantial performance hit to run them on an emulator.

And Apple will have missed an opportunity to start a true revolution and fundamentally change the world-overnight.

Jan 17, 06 - 09:25 am Comment from: argusx

"You can spot them pretty clearly when they start talking about Windows, they've dropped 'poor security' and 'bloated' into the conversation by the second sentence."

That's probably because Windows does have poor security and is extremely bloated.

Jan 17, 06 - 09:27 am Comment from: Ampar

Gotta love poetic license. Maybe not.

Macintellahamentoshenphonopoddicfoyochippydippyspicyasianchicken!

HAH! Put that in your leather chaps and smoke it. Whatever that means.


P.S. Nice BOC reference, MacDude!

Jan 17, 06 - 09:44 am Comment from: MacMan

Apple knows their customers, for the most part. They know that the person who buys a mac will generally have: a higher education, higher technology adoption rates, higher access to broadband, actually wants to get work done, etc, etc, etc.

Apple will not be adopted by the general public because Apple is innovating and not continuing to support legacy hardware. No more modems in hardware enclosures, no floppy drives, etc.

I say Apple will max out at 10-15% market share, and that is still huge. Apple just isn't for the average individual . . . only for the individual with technological class.

Jan 17, 06 - 09:57 am Comment from: Follower

Shame on Apple for making Intel run those commercials with the disco-dancing bunny suit guys a decade ago.

Huh? Intel decided to do what by themselves...?

Jan 17, 06 - 01:21 pm Comment from: Bloke

[I for one am sick of being an unofficial help desk for many PC weenies who are too tight and ignorant to buy a better machine in the first place.]

nota,

Stop doing that.

-

Jay and Replay,

Thanx for seeing, and understanding what you saw.

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