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If Kenny estimates Palm will sell 11 million units in 2012, then how can the rest of his predictions be credible. I can't imagine such a miracle happening for Palm given the current numbers.

Oct 07, 09 - 03:52 pm Comment from: iQuack

I think Apple is on track for Number 2 But that's just a biased response

The world is going to end in 2012, so who cares?

Oct 07, 09 - 04:01 pm Comment from: ken1w

Apple has about 13% of the market in smart phones right now. Obviously, the overall market for smart phones will grow significantly by 2012, but Apple's portion will be more than 13.7%. Also, how does he justify making these predictions to 0.1% accuracy (and down to 100,000 on units sold); that's ridiculous.

> Windows Mobile will finish fourth, with 66.8 million units sold, or 12.8% of the market.

Now that's funny... WinMo will have 5% if Microsoft is lucky.

Apple behind Android in 2012?

NOT . . . GONNA . . . HAPPEN!

Oct 07, 09 - 04:02 pm Comment from: zmarc

The guy predicts 66.8 million WinMo phones to ship in 2012? He's delusional!

Oct 07, 09 - 04:15 pm Comment from: JAYGEE

Androids market share can only go up. I can see Android having a higher market share, than the iPhone, if Android gets on more hardware.

lame projection

That should not have seen the light of day by Computerworld - just an Apple bashing fest by an organization that is finding itself on the wrong side of this renegade company called Apple that has all of a sudden breached their radar - ridiculous

How in the world can they make these projections? Move along.

What has Kenny been smoke'n?

"Gartner Inc. predicts", Gartner can you predict my future? Can you tell me how many finger(s) I'm holding up? I have a better idea, lets bet Kenny's job on it and see if he's still employed in 2012.

Doh!

A lot of things in this "forecast" just don't make sense.

1. The market share report by Canalys indicated that Apple currently had something like 13 percent of the market. Assuming that estimating market share is the one thing that these analysts get correct, it would seem to imply that Apple's market share is going to be flat for the next 3 years. Not likely, IMHO.

2. RIM is currently at something like 20-25 percent. Microsoft is at something like 9 percent. Also, RIM sales are actually growing still (although their profits are being squeezed) while Microsoft sales are falling. The only chance M$ has to turn this around is WinMo 7 - which is still a year away. In spite of this, the analyst thinks that Microsoft will grow market share while RIM's share will drop by half!

A couple of things make some kind of sense. I guess Android's share will climb (though I'm not sure it will climb by 400 percent) and Nokia (no matter how well they do) can't go anywhere but down. Given the kind of competition they are facing, a 50 percent market share is not sustainable.

Still, the guy seems to have engaged in some kind of wishful thinking exercise. I wish I got paid to come up with fantasies like this

- HCE

Oct 07, 09 - 04:58 pm Comment from: Big Als MBP

For Android to hit those numbers, Windows Mobile will have to disappear off the face of the Earth.

Not that there's anything wrong with that.

Oct 07, 09 - 04:59 pm Comment from: LTD*

@ HCE:

Who knows. Send em a resume!

I wouldn't put any money on it... with Apple expanding their sales channels as we speak... and non-exclusivity become the norm I would expect the iPhone to bloom in the next two years.

I have such a big problem with analysts. The implied assumption is that none of these OS's are going to evolve/improve. I can guarantee that Google, Apple, Microsoft, etc. are going to be making changes to improve their product and respond to competitive pressures. Unless you can predict what these companies will be offering in 2012, use the paper the prediction is printed on for toilet paper.

Oct 07, 09 - 05:32 pm Comment from: Dave H

Can't see that myself. Symbian will tank at the expense of Android, and both Apple and RIM will see sufficient gains to virtually force WinMo out of the market.

Seriously, nobody buys Windows Mobile phones anymore. After the thread the other day I asked around a few colleagues, and out of six people only one Windows Mobile device has been spotted recently. Even that was in a train carriage where it seemed everybody else had Blackberrys or iPhones.

WinMo is already dead. Version 7 will sell in small numbers for six months before handset manufacturers drop it in favour of Android.

I would suspect that if Android takes off it will be difficult to see phone manufacturers producing great numbers of WinMo too. Sitting on the fence is one thing but if the former is seen as being successful I see little reason to commit to another platform in a big way too especially one very much less open and from a company that is likely to stab you in the back should you be successful in selling its products. Browsing is the big asset now for phones (as unsurprisingly MS didn't notice) and Google services there will be so much more useful than anything MS can offer.

Wow, the guy figures there will be over half a billion smartphones sold every year by 2012.

Seems a bit high.

Oct 07, 09 - 06:08 pm Comment from: silverhawk

Is Symbian only sold in Europe? You never hear of it in the USA.

"I think Apple is on track for Number 2 But that's just a biased response "

Even if they are, Android is a FREE OS. Google makes money on ADS.

You know how much damn Money Apple makes from the iPhone, the Carrier and the iTunes store residuals???

He might not be talking about the year 2012, he might be talking cumulatively from 2010-2012. Just a thought.

No. The number 1, 2, and 3 spot will belong to the
Asteroid Phone

It will be a new phone I plan to create that will copy
the look of all the iPhones and mini-tablet phones
that Apple will have develop and will be selling in 2012.

But I will license my copycat OS to Verizon and
Sprint and T-Mobile and everybody that wants to
sell iPhone lookalikes. And the name rocks.

Asteroid. The Rock from Space delivered to you.

Oct 07, 09 - 08:31 pm Comment from: TheConfuzed1

This is amusing.

While they're at it, why don't they go ahead and tell is who will when the 2012 Superbowl so he can put our bets in now for a huge return?

@iQuack

Yeah the world is going to end in 2012 but not 'til it's almost over. So we should still get a chance to see if these predictions are right....of course just before we all die. I predict the world will end with a giant blue screen of death.

Ok...that last post was meant for MacMental not iQuack. But it's still correct. We'll get to see if this guy is correct just before 12/21/2012

I plan on buying the special Mayan Apocalypse Edition iPhone in 2012.

Oct 07, 09 - 11:10 pm Comment from: Jim - TIV

Sounds like a rounding error to me...

Say what you want about Gartner but, as a company, they aren't stupid at all and are usually right on the money. But, nevertheless, I don't have any respect at all for Ken Dulaney who has panned the iPhone ever since it was released. I can only assume that he is biased again Apple because I can't think of any other possible reason for his overly negative opinions about the iPhone. Regardless of how it may appear, though, none of the Gartner analysts just pull numbers out of the air. And I know.

Oct 08, 09 - 12:15 am Comment from: John E

The pinpoint nature of the predictions is absurd. Two years away, a margain of error is mandatory for any professional quality work. For shame. At least + or - 5%. Which would put all platforms except palm is a tie for second behind Nokia. And palm could be zero (not unlikely). The only thing probably wrong with that properly qualified prediction is win mobile, which is clearly in deine now, falling behind the pack. Win mobile 7 could halt the decline but by then it will be too late. It will be down to single digit %.

Oct 08, 09 - 04:12 am Comment from: Macdoc

How Gartner Inc. stays in business is beyond me...they Never get anything right. Their track record in predicting IT trends etc..is Zero point Zero.

While I think that his numbers are out to lunch, I think that there is some decent reasoning as to why he is putting Android ahead of the iPhone -- because Android will be available on multiple phones in different configurations, while whatever iPhones there are will only be made by Apple. Thus even if the iPhone is the most popular smartphone by far, its operating system will be behind an OS that is more widely available. This is the same pattern that we now see in computers -- the fact that you cn only get OSX on Apple computers means that it will never acheive market domination even though it is manifestly superior in every way. And Apple wants it that way. They may feel the same about the iPhone and would be happy making the #1 smartphone as opposed to the #1 smartphone OS.