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Sun, Aug 01, 2010 - 01:15 AM EDT  —  AAPL: 257.25 (-0.86, -0.33%)  |  NASDAQ: 2254.70 (+3.01, +0.13%)

Goldman Sachs analyst pegs Apple iPhone sales at up to 700,000 units in first weekend
Monday, July 02, 2007 - 03:03 PM EDT

"Apple Inc.'s initial iPhone sales may have beat analysts' top projections, suggesting Chief Executive Officer Steve Jobs will reach his goal of making mobile phones as profitable to the company as computers and the iPod," The Contra Costa Times reports.

"Shoppers may have bought as many as 700,000 units over the weekend, Goldman Sachs Inc. analyst David Bailey said, twice his projection of 350,000. Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster pegged sales at a bout 500,000, more than twice his original 200,000 estimate," The Contra Costa Times reports.

Full article here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader "Dion" for the heads up.]


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Jul 02, 07 - 03:06 pm Comment from: hotinplaya

can't wait to see Apples numbers

Jul 02, 07 - 03:08 pm Comment from: Dan

Jaysus! That's a lot of sales for a "too expensive" device with a "flakey" touch keypad. Way to go El Jobso!

Jul 02, 07 - 03:11 pm Comment from: Mac n' Cheese

Somewhere in Redmond a chair is flying...

Jul 02, 07 - 03:14 pm Comment from: Martin

the quarterly report is in about 2 weeks.

Jul 02, 07 - 03:14 pm Comment from: ABQ Peter

i don't think we will see any numbers from apple for a while; why let your competitors know exactly what is going on? let their imagination run wild, causing nightmares. what's that? their competitors have proven they don't have any imagination? oh, yeah, well, keep 'em guessing anyway.

Jul 02, 07 - 03:15 pm Comment from: Moo

Every time an iPhone is sold, an office chair dies.

Jul 02, 07 - 03:16 pm Comment from: Global Acceleration

The wave is building. It ought to come crashing down on the competition sometime this fall.

Jul 02, 07 - 03:17 pm Comment from: Dreil

250, 500, 700...

Quick, someone find an analyst quoted as saying 1 mil iphones!

Jul 02, 07 - 03:17 pm Comment from: mactricity

My guess is that they have to give some numbers to the shareholders. I think they'd give only what they are required to: June 29-30.

Jul 02, 07 - 03:17 pm Comment from: Pete

Subscription required for full article.. Wonder how they reached a guestimate of 700,000....

Jul 02, 07 - 03:18 pm Comment from: Rob

"Every time an iPhone is sold, an office chair dies."

HA HAH AH AH A

I think Apple is not releasing numbers because they are close to 1 Mil and they want to wait until then.

Jul 02, 07 - 03:18 pm Comment from: Cubert

I was actually surprised at how easy it is to type with 2 index fingers on the iPhone. These people complaining about it are trying to type with the crappy, carpal tunnel-inducing, two thumb technique of the crackberry fools. Type like a normal freakin' person and it will work. Then, stop your bitchin'!!!

Jul 02, 07 - 03:18 pm Comment from: Martin

Way to go Apple. One thing to note the iPhone sales are actual sales to the user, unlike Microsoft when they post sales for the Zune or Vista that sales figure is to the supply house not the actual customer.

Jul 02, 07 - 03:20 pm Comment from: anaknipedro

Averaging the cost of the two iPhone models, that puts weekend revenue from the iPhone only at $385M! That's 8.8% of Apple Inc's Revenue from last year's quarter that ended on 07-Jul-2006. Very impressive.

Jul 02, 07 - 03:24 pm Comment from: Jeff

Analyst A = 200K
Analyst B = 500K
Analyst C = 700K

This is so ridiculous; these guys don't even come close of each other's prediction. Why taking the risk and look stupid ... again. Just wait for the bloody Press Release from Apple. Jesus!

Jul 02, 07 - 03:28 pm Comment from: ABQ Peter

i think blackfriars this weekend said somewhere over 500K and as many as 1 million - making it the top estimate i have seen; i also remember reading somewhere an estimate that apple had produced 3 million in the initial production run.

Jul 02, 07 - 03:30 pm Comment from: No Squirt For You

MS is busy prototyping $10,000 big ass chairs with two cheek multi-touch typing. Six cameras scan your butt from all angles at all times. It's truly ass-tounding technology.

Jul 02, 07 - 03:30 pm Comment from: Steve Ball-licker

Five hundred dollars! That's the most expensive phone ever!

Hey, buy my phone for one hundred. Selling like hotcakes...honest.

Jul 02, 07 - 03:32 pm Comment from: Dave Stephens

Uh... If I got paid for guessing.... Guess what I'd do...

Go ahead. I'll give you three chances. I'm sure you're smart enough to guess it correctly...

Now, if you are NOT paid to guess such things, perhaps YOU should wait for the 'bloody press release', ok? smile)

Jul 02, 07 - 03:33 pm Comment from: Tom

So we have estimates anywhere from 200,000 to 700,000, and don't know if those include online orders or not.

In other words, we don't have a clue how many were sold.

Further, I'm not sure Apple has any interest in shedding further light on this any time soon.

Jul 02, 07 - 03:38 pm Comment from: hotinplaya

Can't stand all this iPhone talk!!!!!!!!!

I want to hold one so bad!!!!, much less buy one, My wife works in guest services at a hotel here in Playa Del Carmen, Mexico. She thinks I am nuts, but has promised to ask all incoming guest if they have an iPhone, and has promised to call me to come see the 1st one that arrives, and to butter them up, "champagne and flowers" in their room

Jul 02, 07 - 03:38 pm Comment from: nathan

Dave's got a point.

Also, if the analysts didn't guesstimate, we traders would have a hard time making money on the actual news

Jul 02, 07 - 03:42 pm Comment from: Aldebaran

Remember that Apple announced recently that they are moving to a "subscription" model for the revenue on both the iPhone and Apple TV, which means that sales revenue for these devices will be spread out and recorded over the next two YEARS. So if Apple sold $300 million worth of iPhones on Friday and Saturday (June 29 and 30), that would in effect count for $12.5 million that "month" and each of the next 23 months.

Jul 02, 07 - 03:42 pm Comment from: Rob

I think Steve is holding out information to make other providers sweat a little bit longer, biatch

Jul 02, 07 - 03:44 pm Comment from: Abdullah

I do hope Apple releases the weekend figures. The whole world wants to know! This was an event, like the opening of a blockbuster movie, even if it was the launch of just another product. Plus, if Apple does not release the figures in timely fashion, it will give FUDers ammo to suggest that the figures have been a disappointment, and that is why Apple is keeping mum.

Jul 02, 07 - 03:49 pm Comment from: mark

Because the analyst's job is to provide that number, regardless of whether Apple releases a press release today or ever about it. Because at this moment, that number is key driver of whether to buy, hold, or sell Apple stock.

In the two weeks leading up to iDay, the published predictions were in the 50K to 400K range. The whisper number was above 500K. Apple stock surged over 120 because people were buying based on the whisper number.

Today, the stock market is having trouble determining if Apple made it to or surpassed 500K. The lack of a widespread sellout on the 1st or 2nd day is causing the market to wonder if the launch fell short of Apple's internal projection. The lack of a press release can be interpreted in too many ways. And it's quite possible that big company with large holdings of Apple did measure units delivered to some Apple stores, and calculated a shortfall in sales, leading to some quiet selling, thus putting pressure on the stock price.

One thing that should be done: If an analyst puts out a number, they should explain roughly how they came to that number., so we can assess the credibility of the number.

Jul 02, 07 - 03:51 pm Comment from: PzKpfW

I predict that Apple has sold well over 500 iPhones since Friday.

Jul 02, 07 - 03:54 pm Comment from: Dvorak, Enderle, & Thurrott Consulting Gp

We estimate there were only 10 iPhones sold over the entire weekend. Apple hired actors to stand in line all over the country to create the illusion of sales. They even hired a Steve Wozniak look-alike.

Jul 02, 07 - 03:58 pm Comment from: mark

We may have to wait until October to get a good estimate if Apple doesn't want to say anything, either today or when quarterly earnings are announced in a couple of weeks.

Because Apple is amortizing the revenue over 24 months, it is very hard to see the material impact to revenues, from which one can try to derive units sold. Apple hasn't said in which category they will put iPhone sales. Or for that matter, AppleTV sales. It could be other Music/Media, or Peripherals/Hardware.

It was impossible to pull out AppleTV sales from the April filing. They'll be more iPhones sold, so the bump will show up at least a little bit more, but if its lumped with AppleTV or other sales, it will be very difficult.

Jul 02, 07 - 03:58 pm Comment from: eWorldian

@Global Acceleration

Shouldn't that be "Global Appleization"?

Jul 02, 07 - 04:02 pm Comment from: Jamie

I'll bet you don't hear a peep from Apple until they hit one million sold.

Which at this rate will be this week sometime, or next week at the latest.

Actual numbers reported--a refreshing change from the fake, channel-stuffed numbers that Microsoft, Sony and others provide.

Jul 02, 07 - 04:06 pm Comment from: JJJS

The difference between 300K and 700K units sold in one month in terms of 24 months amortized revenue is about 8-10 million dollars, depending on whether the average selling price is 500 or 600.

Jul 02, 07 - 04:15 pm Comment from: Mr. Reeee

Amazing how the critics wailed about the iPhones' cost, yet fail to mention $700, $800 or $900 "smart" phones from Nokia, Palm and Sony Ericsson. Oh yes, but they have "real" keyboards and work with Microsoft Exchange and can read Excel and Word documents.

I guess they're toeing the FUD line: Apple is too expensive. Apple products are incompatible.

Yet, look at the specs. Compare with other companies' products and Apple is comparable or sells for less. Oh yeah, AND Apple products tend to work as advertised or BETTER.

There's going to be lots of grilled crow served up in the coming weeks

Apple: Underpromise… OVERdeliver

Jul 02, 07 - 04:26 pm Comment from: wannabe

The real elephant in the room is the number of units sold through the online Apple Store, which is completely unknown to anyone outside Apple.

Jul 02, 07 - 04:32 pm Comment from: ken1w

Apple will probably release the numbers tomorrow (or very soon). It's good news. It will help sell even more iPhones. It's not like the Zune, when Microsoft was too embarrassed to give the real "sales from retailers" numbers.

Jul 02, 07 - 04:35 pm Comment from: mark

@wannabe: AFAIK, none of the online Apple Store sales have shipped (showing 2-4 weeks), so I don't think Apple would include them in any announcement of units sold. Apple doesn't include units in the sales/distribution channel either when they speak of units sold. So, you're right that it is an elephant, but not one of concern today.

Also, those online Apple Store sales will all be recorded in the July-August quarter not in the quarter ending June 30th.

Jul 02, 07 - 04:36 pm Comment from: Rudge

Nobody is even willing to tell us how many iPhones were even made available for each store. If all of the iPhones are sold out, what does that tell you as far as how many they sold?

I called my closest AT&T store. Naturally, they were completely out. I asked them when their next shipment is scheduled to be in. He hadn't a clue. However, he was more than willing to take down my information and have Apple ship me an iPhone directly to my home.

Jul 02, 07 - 04:45 pm Comment from: Rainer

There are currently about 6000 auctions on ebay for iPhones. Make that 10k iPhones that ended straight on ebay. Depending on the number of iPhones sold, that makes between 2 and 5 percent for the shelf-to-ebay-rate.
Of course, the only bigger fools than those trying to make a quick buck on eBay are those who actually buy it there.

Personally, I can't really believe the 500k number. Much less the 700k. 700k would mean about 350 iPhones for every AT&T+AAPL outlet on average. If they really sold 700k, that would mean that they got almost a quarter of the rumored 3 million 1st production run sold - in 36 hours.
That would put them in the same league as (if you like car-analogies) Porsche, who usually has the 1st-year production-run of a new car already sold even before they are even produced (their client-base is equally rich and confident concerning the quality of the product)
If google-zeitgeist shows increased searches for "ulcer" and "insomnia" - that's managers (and sales-folk) of other mobile-phone makers.

Jul 02, 07 - 05:09 pm Comment from: cheese

Give them a break.

Without them stock traders wouldn't have as much info to plan for their next move. buy or sell?

Also, without them there'd be one less item to read, rant or be glad about in MDN.

The only thing that matters right now is that iPhone is selling like hotcakes and it sure paves the way for another wonderfully crafted tech product to dominate the otherwise inutile mobile phone industry.

Go Apple. Go iPhone.

Give Ballmer some more chairs to throw around. hehehe.

Jul 02, 07 - 05:12 pm Comment from: Jocko

CNN an hour ago said 525,000 sold over the weekend!!!

Jul 02, 07 - 05:29 pm Comment from: Garry Wickerman

Great work Mr.Jobs and all the folks at Apple Inc.
You deserve it. Many thanks for an amazing product.

Keep growing the iPhone sales.

Whatever the number is at... it's a beautiful phone, that works equally beautiful. The hype is real... no doubt about it. The best phone ever.

Jul 02, 07 - 05:31 pm Comment from: iwant one...

in the iphone keynote:
-crowd-- i want one!!!
-jobs- you and a billion other people.

Jul 02, 07 - 05:37 pm Comment from: s

"Every time an iPhone is sold, an office chair dies."
Quick, which company provides the chairs? I need to buy their stock!

Jul 02, 07 - 05:47 pm Comment from: BC Kelly

Quite a weekend, eh Folks ?

100,000 or 1/2 Million - don't matter

We're now through the Looking Glass and into the New World

For all you who've just now joined the "Apple Band Wagon" - Welcome

Ain't it Insanely Great grin

BC

Jul 02, 07 - 06:07 pm Comment from: ChrissyOne

How many Moto Q phones sold in the first month?

http://www.everythingq.com/news/motorola/motorola-reports-strong-earnings-and-moto-q-sales-2006072067/

150 k.

;P

iPwned.

-c

Jul 02, 07 - 06:31 pm Comment from: O

Just came from the apple store. The two people in front of me and the one behind were all buying iPhones. If you count my purchase, that was 4 8g inside of 5 min.

I'm finding 700k a believable number.

Jul 02, 07 - 06:47 pm Comment from: ralph from berlin

apple already said that they willl break out iPhone numbers in their quarterly reports. that means we will know the june29/30 numbers in around two weeks. they will acoount it in a subscription model over 24 month but they will tell the actual numbers. other then the appleTV which is in the music related products category and for which apple denies to tell any numbers. (i hope you get what i want to say with my broken english though ...)

Jul 02, 07 - 08:18 pm Comment from: SurelyNot

700,000 phones. That'd be about 360 for each and every Cingular outlet and Apple store in the country.

Doesn't really jive with the reports that many had 50 phones to sell.

Jul 02, 07 - 09:24 pm Comment from: AppleGuy

I'd have to agree with ralph from berlin. I do not recall Apple making very many announcements about hardware sales except at the quarterly reports. There may have been a few exceptions along the way for iPods, but it seems like it was only at very large numbers like 50 or 100 million. Does anybody else recall specific instances? I think we'll get the first report in a few weeks at the Q3 report.

Jul 02, 07 - 09:52 pm Comment from: Raymond from DC

One number we should be looking for in the near future involves the number of iPhone inspired "switchers". I've read a number of reports of Friday iPhone purchasers who returned to the store on Sunday to buy their first Mac. Not that any of us should be surprised. But as the number of iPhones sold increases, we may see a new "halo effect". Watch for a bump up in the percentage of Mac buyers who are "first timers".

Jul 02, 07 - 11:18 pm Comment from: Tommy Boy

SurelyNot I can guarantee that the larger Apple stores had thousands to sell. The Manhattan stores probably had tens of thousands.

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