MacDailyNews - Where Mac news comes first

 MacDailyNews Poll

Deal of the Day

5 Day Most Commented

Opinion Archive

Current Headlines

Latest Joy of Tech

  • Latest Joy of Tech!

MacNN

AppleInsider

Macworld UK

TUAW

MacRumors

Yahoo! Finance AAPL

iTunes Top 10 Albums

Mac OS X Downloads

Sat, Nov 07, 2009 - 08:13 PM EST  —  AAPL: 194.34 (+0.3099, +0.16%)  |  NASDAQ: 2112.44 (+7.12, +0.34%)

Has Steve Jobs become too much of a liability for Apple shareholders?
Wednesday, December 17, 2008 - 01:36 PM EST

"Several analysts rushed out overnight updates after Apple’s surprise announcement Tuesday that Steve Jobs won’t be delivering his usual Macworld keynote next month," Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune.

But Yair Reiner at Oppenheimer & Co. did something we’ve never seen before," Elmer-DeWitt reports. "Not only did he downgrade Apple (AAPL) to 'perform,' or neutral, but he withheld his 12 - 18 month price target for the stock — replacing it with a big NA — until he gets some questions answered."

"'Six months have passed since Jobs appeared at the Apple Developers Conferences looking drawn and unwell,' Reiner wrote in a note to clients entitled 'One Scare Too Many,'" Elmer-DeWitt reports. Reiner wrote, "It’s past time for Apple to either disclose the state of his health or elaborate a viable plan for eventually transferring power. Until such time, we can no longer continue to recommend Apple as a long-term investment.'"

Elmer-DeWitt reports, "Reiner isn’t the only one unnerved by the Jobs news. Investors sent Apple shares down nearly 7%, to $88.95 a share, in midday trading Wednesday."

Full article here.

MacDailyNews Take:

By SteveJack

Let's face it: the way things are today, short of Jobs retiring, or God forbid, dropping dead, nothing is going to change the pattern of Steve Jobs health scares, regardless of whether they're real, imagined, or invented manipulations intended to affect the price of Apple stock.

Jobs could walk on water this afternoon and some people would voice "concern" that he only accomplished it because he's lost so much weight that he's about to ascend into heaven.

There's only so much Apple shareholders can take. An extremely well-positioned, successful company having its share price driven down artificially whenever some short seller desires to cry wolf, er... "gaunt" is not something serious, or even casual, investors welcome. Those who are charged with keeping order (SEC) in the markets are obviously incompetent, AWOL, or both. Perhaps, Jim Cramer and many others (see below for one example) are right in calling loudly for reinstatement of the uptick rule?

The chairman of the SEC [Christopher Cox] serves at the appointment of the president and has betrayed the public's trust. If I were President today, I would fire him... Mismanagement and greed became the operating standard while regulators were asleep at the switch. The regulators were asleep, my friends, they were not working for you. [The SEC has allowed abusive short-selling, to turn] our markets into a casino. - Senator John McCain, September 18, 2008

So, the headline asks the ultimate question: In this current climate, with stock-price-affecting health "concerns," real or not, that can only be alleviated via retirement or death, and in the absence of the uptick rule, has Steve Jobs become too much of a liability for Apple shareholders? With his "health" sitting there as ammunition to be used whenever the shorts desire to fire off a few rounds, can Steve Jobs remain as Apple CEO without the uptick rule in place?

We get email here. Some AAPL shareholders are not happy with what they consider to be obvious and uncontrolled manipulation.

In an attempt to achieve utter clarity, here's the Either/Or statement: Either Steve Jobs has to go or the uptick rule has to return. Without one or the other, Apple shareholders are at the mercy of forces that have absolutely nothing to do with the company's current and future performance. AAPL stock simply cannot be recommended, if its performance has little or nothing to do with the company's actual results. Cancel or Allow?

SteveJack is a long-time Macintosh user, web designer, multimedia producer and a regular contributor to the MacDailyNews Opinion section.

Bookmark and Share

Always -- Free ground shipping with orders over $50 at the Apple Store.

Reader Feedback: = registered.
Unregistered users: Feedback from multiple usernames are subject to deletion. Off-topic and posts from suspected astroturfers will be removed.

Dec 17, 08 - 01:40 pm Comment from: dan

oh brother! first Sculley gets Steve booted by the board, and now this: kicked out because the company relies too heavily upon him. madness

Dec 17, 08 - 01:42 pm Comment from: deepdish

not of steve's doing. the media has created this problem.

Dec 17, 08 - 01:44 pm Comment from: cptnkirk

The problem is not Steve Jobs or the end of MacWorld keynotes. It's the #$%@ing anal-ysts!

Dec 17, 08 - 01:47 pm Comment from: cptnkirk

Actually I hope they bash a bit more right now. I need the stock to drop to $80 so I can afford to buy 10 more shares.

Dec 17, 08 - 01:47 pm Comment from: swing geezer

I think he should just ascend into heaven and run Apple through a couple of prophets. I nominate me.

Dec 17, 08 - 01:50 pm Comment from: clue-by-four

Oh please. What a crock, MDN. Are you guys becoming link whores too? If you read other news, you would have noted that CNBC's Jim Goldman reported that informed sources made it clear to him that Apple's pull-out from MacWorld is a business decision, and DOES NOT have anything to do with Steve Job's health, good or bad.

If you work on trade shows as I do, you would be apalled at the cost charged by show organizers, and the hideous costs related to doing business at a trade show. From union fees for drayage, to the obscene charges to exhibitors for electrical services or Internet (a simple T-1 share for two days can cost even a small exhibitor over $1,000 at a big trade show for one connection) and more, trade shows are a very expensive proposition these days.

As it is, Apple has trade shows daily across the world. It's called THE APPLE STORE. And the company may have learned that they can generate an equal amount of media coverage via smaller special events and at a lower cost. So why spend all the money on MacWorld?

If you are an Apple employee, you might be thankful. The savings on MacWorld might save your job.

Meanwhile, you have dickheads like Yair Reiner attempting to hold Apple hostage until the company capitulates, apologizes and gives some two-bit analyst what they demand. Um, who the frick appointed this frigtard to be God? And why doesn't this dipshit drop a similar bomb on Warren Buffet, who has for years stated that he has a succession plan, and that it will remain an absolute secret until the genial Mr. Buffet either retires or dies? Can you say, "double-standard", boys and girls?

Frankly, I am tired of this crap. Judge a company on its earnings, not rumors, lies, assumptions and innuendos. And shame on SteveJack and MDN for this garbage. You are becoming the very link whores that you despise.

Please wake me up when real news comes around. Otherwise, you'll just continue to be fodder for the short sellers and hedge funds waiting to prey on your fears and ignorance.

Dec 17, 08 - 01:51 pm Comment from: clinicaltechmaster

Yair Reiner at Oppenheimer & Co. is an idiot... his company is a train wreck (their muni funds dropped 40% this year!!!). He is probably part of the manipulate- Apple -stock group. I wouldn't hit a dog in the ass with his crappy opinions.

Dec 17, 08 - 01:55 pm Comment from: Cascadians

Ha! the ultimate artificial construction to bash a brilliant genius. Make up a bunch of hooey, illegally manipulate the stock, then blame Jobs: utter media corruption.

It's so bad and ridiculous it's funny. Ppl are not THAT stupid.

Dec 17, 08 - 02:01 pm Comment from: Superior Being

clue-by-four,

Congratulations, you've missed MDN's point entirely. Whoosh! Right over your tiny pea brain.

Please apply the "clue-by-four" to your head repeatedly until you achieve basic reading comprehension skills or until you pass out whichever comes first.

Dec 17, 08 - 02:03 pm Comment from: Gabriel

In short: NO.
In long: NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO...

(yes, I stole that bit from Zero Punctuation yet again)

I am beyond frustrated and annoyed with these same know-nothing idiots waving the "Jobs health" card around to easily manipulate the stock price for their own profit. It's not Apple's fault that the SEC are either not doing their job or are in on the scam.

If "Apple shareholders" (including, apparently, some at MDN) are more concerned about what other people think, than they are about having the best person possible as CEO of Apple, then these "Apple shareholders" are complete morons.

Dec 17, 08 - 02:06 pm Comment from: Jubei

ANAL-yst. geez

Dec 17, 08 - 02:07 pm Comment from: Pat Murphy

I for one am very concerned. Apple has recovered and prospered because of Steve. I don't think see a combination of vision, business savy, and asshole-ness that drives people to give their best anywhere on the horizon. Apple will try to hang on the way Disney did, but as CEOs come and go, the company will become more and more managed by committee.
It looks like to me, despite MDN's ranting, that Steve is sick again, and that time may be short.

Dec 17, 08 - 02:09 pm Comment from: KingMel

He is too important! We must get rid of him because that makes him a liability!

That is complete crap. Let me recap that illogic - a few Chicken Littles are squawking that Steveo is going to die early because he doesn't resemble Buddha, so get rid of him now...

Relax, friends. Hakuna matata is the phrase that pays. Steve's situation will take care of itself over time.

Dec 17, 08 - 02:18 pm Comment from: The Balcony

Yes, lets throw him under bus since he's not doing well. Losers.

Dec 17, 08 - 02:18 pm Comment from: iWill

Many think that Steve Jobs IS Apple. So naturally, w/o Steve there is no Apple, or so the faulty logic seems to go.

Apple is the approx. 32,000 people employed by the company, AND the millions of customers around the world.

Its a symbiotic relationship that just happens to currently be headed by a wunderkind of the computer age. Cap'n Steve has righted the listing Apple ship, and now has a very able bodied crew in place to sail on to points yet to be discovered. Are you with the ship or not?

Dec 17, 08 - 02:21 pm Comment from: DH

Any body here old enough to remember " COMDEX " ? It was the largest computer trade show in the U.S. Eventually, exhibitors dropped out of the show because of costs and alternative ways of advertising their products. The Internet has changed the need for trade shows, not to mention the high costs of travel and manning these shows. The time has come to " put a fork in it ".

Dec 17, 08 - 02:25 pm Comment from: jtc

@iWill
Look at Apple when it started... then look how it was when he got canned.... then look at his success without Apple.. then look at the success Apple has with him back. Him leaving again could be bad. But who knows, last time he was canned maybe this time he will leave or die. I'm sure he has a plan for someone to take his place but im sure he wont tell until he says he's leavin.. assuming he leaves.

Dec 17, 08 - 02:29 pm Comment from: Broker

Cox is an incompetent buffoon.

The experiment failed completely.

Bring back the uptick rule.

Without it, Jobs' "health concerns" have been and will continue to be used to manipulate the stock at will.

Dec 17, 08 - 02:35 pm Comment from: in the pits

Bravo, SteveJack!

It's about fscking time somebody said it!

Without the uptick rule, Jobs' health is simply there to be used by whomever wishes to artificially drive down the stock that day.

AAPL investors should be apoplectic as they own shares in one of the richest and best positioned companies on the planet and are seeing no rewards due to stock price manipulation by the short sellers.

Dec 17, 08 - 02:38 pm Comment from: Tired of Retards

clue-by-four,

Do you take off your helmet when you go to sleep or just leave it on 24/7?

Dec 17, 08 - 02:41 pm Comment from: ken1w

Perhaps Apple's stock price will be 70% of what it should be because of investors who care more about Steve Jobs's health than actual company performance (present and future). That's fine with me. I'd rather have Apple at 70% potential stock price now with Steve Jobs at the helm for as long as he wants to do it. Eventually, when Steve Jobs is still around after a few more years, investors will become less paranoid. Or Steve Jobs will retire sooner rather than later, and investors will get used to seeing that Apple is doing just fine. Either way, it is best for Apple to have Steve Jobs as CEO for as long as possible.

But I have a feeling Steve Jobs will be calling the shots at Apple for a long time. The MacWorld keynote date is really early this year, January 5th. Steve Jobs does not just get up there on stage and read off a tele-prompter or cue cards. He carefully prepares for and rehearses the show. He probably decided that it was more important to him that he spend the time between Christmas and New Years with his family, instead of preparing for the annual "MacWorld Show and Tell." Let Phil handle it; he delegated. He'll probably be sitting in the audience.

Dec 17, 08 - 02:44 pm Comment from: buliguo

You Americans will never learn! Giving again to one man (Reiner here) to make and break handle to communicate to greedy stockholders whether Apple is doing well or not. Do not blame Jobs, do not blame Apple, blame the Reiner dude and the panting crowds for the posted disappointing figures. Or do you need another warning and trillions to go to incompetent or evil "captains" of your industry?

Dec 17, 08 - 02:51 pm Comment from: kenh

Just more of the silly attitude that we have in this country about the so-called "key man", whether it is business or politics.

No question Steve Jobs was, and maybe still is the driving force behind Apple.

But IN NO WAY do I get up in the morning and plan my day around
Steve Jobs' health. I do use my Mac, but that is me working individually. Things will change when he passes, but....we all go on.

And the idea that my day would substantially change because of what the President-elects mood is today is just pathetic! Some of you are willing to throw away what you could accomplish on your own because of who is or is not president? Yikes! Scary!

The ONLY reason that any society works, whether it is the Apple "society" or the nation works is because each of us individually gets up in the morning, goes to work and does his job. It is not because of what the "collective" does. That is just an obstacle that the talented and motivated individuals to work around. As it always was and shall be.

Steve Jobs does that, but he will not always be there, and someone else will step into his place or not. 30 million copies of OSX out there plugging away used by individuals. We all get replaced someday, but the momentum is there if we keep it up.

End of Wednesday afternoon philosophy rant.

Dec 17, 08 - 02:54 pm Comment from: alansky

The system that determines share prices is broken, pure and simple. When a successful company's share price has virtually nothing to do with its performance, the system is doubly broken. When Steve Jobs retires, whenever that may happen, Apple will instantly become a different company because a man like Steve Jobs cannot be replaced just like that. It may be that he can't be replaced at all and Apple will return to being just another seller of uninspired electronic gadgets. Who knows? Meanwhile, long live Steve Jobs!

Dec 17, 08 - 02:55 pm Comment from: FUDsucker Proxy

Anyone who thinks the Stock Market has ANYTHING to do with reality is delusional.

Just think, the ones who are doing the best financially are the ones who stuffed their money in a mattress! I have lots of friends and family who lost 20% or more of their retirement savings with the latest crash.

My girlfriend, following my advice, cashed in all her investments and paid off her mortgage just a couple of weeks before the meltdown.

To all the little players out there: if you play with the big boys who pull all the strings you WILL get burned, that's why they want to you come play you are a revenue source.

Dec 17, 08 - 02:58 pm Comment from: @ Superior Being

You said:

"clue-by-four,

Congratulations, you've missed MDN's point entirely. Whoosh! Right over your tiny pea brain.

"Please apply the "clue-by-four" to your head repeatedly until you achieve basic reading comprehension skills or until you pass out whichever comes first."

To which I reply:

Thanks for your rousing endorsement. I want to note for the record that the MDN take HAD NOT been added when I filed my posting (clue-by-four) above. Taken in that perspective, my original points were valid. Once SteveJack added his/their posting at the bottom of the article, the perspective of their reporting changed 180 degrees. That gave you an opportunity to humiliate someone you will never meet, and make you feel superior and self-important. I hope you feel warm inside.

Now that you have insulted someone, I would please ask you to get a life.

Happy holidays.

Dec 17, 08 - 03:00 pm Comment from: ndelc

clue-by-four said, "If you are an Apple employee, you might be thankful. The savings on MacWorld might save your job."

Umm, Apple has over $20 billion in cash and no debt. No one at Apple would lose their job because the company decided to go to MacWorld. That doesn't mean that it makes good business sense to go, I'm just pointing out that it wouldn't cost anyone their job. Some companies today are certainly in that type of situation, but Apple isn't one of them.

Dec 17, 08 - 03:00 pm Comment from: One guy from Finland

Who the hell is selling? They should be buying more. I am.

Dec 17, 08 - 03:02 pm Comment from: CourtJester

Who needs trade shows these days?

I for one would always prefer an Apple store within 100 miles than an annual event within 7000.

If SJ wants to announce he can do that many ways either from Apple stores or from iTunes.

Dec 17, 08 - 03:02 pm Comment from: FUDsucker Proxy

BTW

I never have and never will play the Market, and don't see why it has suddenly become so important. It wasn't so in your face even five years ago. From what I have seen its the best way to part with your money.

Also, the GF, you can imagine was VERY grateful, if you know what I mean.
wink

Dec 17, 08 - 03:06 pm Comment from: Logic

if all were well, Steve would do the last keynote and announce they're not coming back.

The other way around makes no sense unless there's a problem with Steve doing it. Anyone but an idiot would understand that non-appearances by Steve are going to drive the stock down. Steve knowing that and being no idiot would make the engagement if he could.

Dec 17, 08 - 03:11 pm Comment from: jon1

Obviously Apple is not concerned about the price of their stock or they would make a more complete statement instead of dodging it. If health is not the issue, they could just say, "Steve's health is not the reason for the change in modus operandi" - But instead, they leave it as a mystery - they should expect the stock price to take a hit. So it probably is his health.

Dec 17, 08 - 03:22 pm Comment from: mike farr

All it would take is Steve to make a 2 minute video, perhaps to have made the announcement himself.

Dec 17, 08 - 03:43 pm Comment from: Berrylium

I think Apple is smart to limit Steve Jobs' public appearances. The less he is seen the less photos the journalistic jackals will have to use as ammo in their efforts to manipulate stock prices.

But I am in favor of the return of the Uptick Rule. If I were the S.E.C. commissioner, I'd go further and prohibit short selling altogether.

Dec 17, 08 - 03:46 pm Comment from: I Me Mine

@clue-by-four

very well said.

Dec 17, 08 - 04:04 pm Comment from: Gregg Thurman

Philip Elmer-DeWitt is just one more idiot that pushes the myth that Jobs is exclusively responsible for Apple's rise.

Jobs took a rudderless ship and gave it direction. He also insisted on excellence in everything that Apple does, not unlike the theme of Tom Peter's management books of the '80s, "In Search of Excellence". But that is all. He does not create the ads, he does not design the product, he does not design the electronics, he does not develop the software.

The most important thing Jobs has done at Apple is create a culture of excellence. That culture will not go away when he steps down. It is in the people that he has recruited to make the Apple management team, and with the stock grants just given, they will be there for the next 5 years.

DeWitt's article massively re-inforces my view that financial journalists are the most ignorant of people's.

Dec 17, 08 - 04:48 pm Comment from: Connor MacBook

I'm with Logic. Jobs's absence from the final Macworld is a legitimate concern, not some media beat-up. And the Apple spokesman's cageyness only makes it worse.

Dec 17, 08 - 07:42 pm Comment from: ralph from berlin

i am with connor. this is some of the worst press anouncements of all times. it only raises questions instead of giving answers. all this speculation and the beating of the stock price is only apple's fault. bad move apple, very bad move. just plain stupid.

Dec 17, 08 - 07:51 pm Comment from: orlando

just let what happens, happen..

buy some more stock everytime these rumors come up..


dont forget..analysts change ratings to make money for their firms...why else do you think they upgrade..downgrade stocks at the most random times...usually its cas their firms trading revenue are drying up.

Dec 17, 08 - 09:24 pm Comment from: rickw

I hate to chime in on this with Big Al on the prowl for my posts, painting me a (heaven forbid) Microsoft lackey, but this whole matter could have been cleared up if Steve actually gave the keynote and explained why it was going to be Apple's last. Instead we're left with this cryptic announcement, with no explanation. So what else would one think about other than the big guy is not up to delivering this?

Steve Jobs is one of my heroes. Without him, it is obvious that this company, the only company worthy of praise in the Nasdaq for the past 5 years, will never be the same. So, if he knows everything's fine and he's doing okay healthwise, then come out and say you're fine. What the heck worse can happen? The stock drops 60% from its high of a year ago....Oh wait, it already happened!!!

Look, I'm a truck load down with this stock from last year's high. I bought in at 38, I have no plans on retiring and can make the money back in covered call writing over the next 3-4 years, or even jump ship and buy other stocks that will cover infrastructure. The only reason I held on, despite the drop was the certainty that this company would outperform! If Jobs is seriously ill, then uncertainty looms and that's when stocks fall.

I consider myself to be an Apple Fan Boy, but it's time that Apple showed some leadership on this issue and started acting responsibly. We cannot have 6-8 point gyrations on a stock of this magnitude.

/rick.

Dec 18, 08 - 06:26 am Comment from: Need to Worshop

"Perhaps this is just the first step in deemphasising the cult and returning rationale thought to all things Apple."

Like that will happen. The fanboys will just move on and find some other piece of consumer electronics to venerate.

Dec 18, 08 - 09:23 am Comment from: MacRaven

As much as I am disappointed about everything this week, I think it was necessary.

-- Media was over obsessing on Steve's appearance EVERY time he stepped on stage.
-- Apple got so it was difficult to top ITSELF every time a Keynote is held. (Though most times it did, when it didn't the media was merciless).
-- The stock value of the company is too vulnerable to the Media reaction to all of the above.
-- Apple is one of the most successful, profitable, forward moving company in existence today, and the stock price is not reflecting that because of all of the above.

Something had to be done to:
-- Begin to separate the perception of Steve and the market's perception of Apple's viability for the future (NOT an easy task as we Mac Faithful from early years and "Steveless Years" well know).
-- Stop the hammering the stock is taking all over Steve's health.
-- Stop the rumors of new product inventions that were often so far-fetched and futuristic that even Apple couldn't technically always live up to the mega-techo-dreamer hype. The rumor sites, and magazine product dreams created unfair disappointment—even when Apple delivered products better than others, but not living up to techo-dreams by these sites. (though sometimes Apple still managed to surprise us).
-- Prepare the public's mind to accept, and have faith, in those surrounding Steve. Hopefully he has trained them well, and we need not fear "Scully Clones" this time around steering the ship when Steve is no longer there.

Advice: Wait for the stock to drop some more, invest as much as you can afford to risk, and wait and see what happens. You might be pleasantly surprised this time around.

Picture a hologram of Steve saying "Jonathan, use the force!" to Ives, and Schiller and company after he's gone. And someone needs to place a bumper sticker on every Apple employee car that says "WWSD?" (What would Steve do?).

The problem with Apple when Steve was gone years ago, was they tired to do the OPPOSITE of WWSD? believing they knew better. I think a lesson was well learned from those failing years.

Dec 18, 08 - 06:01 pm Comment from: Speculation

"I think Apple is smart to limit Steve Jobs' public appearances. The less he is seen the less photos the journalistic jackals will have to use as ammo in their efforts to manipulate stock prices."

Actually the reverse is true. If Steve is healthy it'd be good to see him doing something every month so people got used to an active but gaunt Steve. Now if he's unhealthy, hiding him away would be a good thing, since a convincing demonstration of poor health will be much more damaging than speculation about poor health.

Reader feedback page 1 of 1 pages:

Always -- Free ground shipping with orders over $50 at the Apple Store.

Add Your Feedback:

Register or Login

Name:

Email: (optional)

Emoticons | Allowed HTML Tags

Remember my info   Notify me of follow-up comments?

Please enter the "MDN Magic Word" you see in the image below: