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Apple continues to improve its market position, introduce and succeed with important and elegant products and continually exceed earnings expectations. The low ball guidance this past week should deter no investor. The panic that has overtaken the market is badly placed when it comes to Apple. People seem to have overlooked the prospective dominance and prominence that Apple is gaining in the tech space if not globally amongst large well respected companies.

Jan 26, 08 - 02:28 pm Comment from: marko

and then there is the potential for a completely derailed economy that cannot gain traction, completely falters and leaves apple stock in the dust, in spite of Apples phenomenal success...

are we doomed yet?

Don't quote anything from HISTORY..
HISTORY is saying we should have a huge run-up from the new year to the MacWorld conference, which didn't happened.

When you see press like this, analysis are trying to push some good news in order to unload their shares.

If you see ipod sales are slowing down, that's a warning sign. Also, look at their new product, only Macbook Air is worth talking about. Seriously, I was planning to upgrade my Macbook, but after looking at Macbook Air, I am not going to do so. iPhone is getting old, and might not have that spark anymore.
If you go to Japan, China, and India, people are already using UNLOCKED iphone few months ago!

Those are my comments only.

Jan 26, 08 - 02:49 pm Comment from: blucaso

Or as another way of looking at it, the economic worries, general stock market decline, and investors getting nervous about sitting on the peak of nearly $200 a share probably would have found a cloud in any silver lining at the Expo.

Frankly, short of producing the Second Coming in a saleable form, I'm not sure anything could have prevented a sell-off in today's market.

The Macbook Air is significant because it's a NEW niche. The iPod Touch is a NEW market beyond traditional iPods. The addition of rentals to the Apple TV, iTunes, iPod & iPhone is a NEW (and huge, in my opinion) long-term win. Time Capsule is a NEW niche for Apple.

Do you see a pattern here? This was not the Jobs keynote of 2 or 3 years ago, where "ho-hum" we'd show off an iLife or an iWork update. Preview the next update of the OS. This was a keynote full of EXPANDING the market for Apple. The Apple TV now has a serious chance of becoming a big seller. The iPod Touch, only a few months old, now has a SIGNIFICANTLY improved feature set. And Apple has entered new markets to compete in.

This is all good news, even if it's not a blockbuster surprise announcement like the Apple Car or something. And all of these markets should have tremendous growth potential.

At first, I thought it was just a so-so keynote, but the more I look at what is happening, the more I see the plans unfolding. Apple cannot (obviously) continue unlimited vertical growth in any one market. The iPod is maturing, so Apple changes the game. The online stores are getting more competitive, so Apple changes the game (again). The laptop market is exploding, so Apple introduces a third line to its already blockbuster mix.

I think Apple is greatly positioned, and I only wish I had about a million dollars to pour into stock at $130 now.

Jan 26, 08 - 03:31 pm Comment from: Wingsy

Wait a big fat minute. iPod sales have not slowed at all. What has slowed is the rate of increase in sales. They still sold more this quarter than they ever have, so you can't call that a slowdown.

Jan 26, 08 - 03:35 pm Comment from: MadMac

If any one of the "know-it-all" commentators had something worth listening to, they would be off making money rather than spouting off such pap.

I have made tens of thousands from trading this stock over the past few years. I thought I had a great handle on things. Then...

I have lost over $100,000 in the last few weeks. So much for experience. Get lucky or get out. The performance of the company has 5% to do with the performance of the stock in the short term, and 95% to do with it in the long term.

If someone says they have it figured out, turn around and run. They don't.

Jan 26, 08 - 03:44 pm Comment from: ElderNorm

@Jack:

"Don't quote anything from HISTORY.. " ABSOLUTELY. Apple makes history so anyone quoting it is looking in the rear view mirror.

"When you see press like this, analysis are trying to push some good news in order to unload their shares." Then maybe you should buy Microsoft .

"If you see ipod sales are slowing down, that's a warning sign." ---- FUD FUD Alert This is either proof of fud or just lack of understanding.

People, Apple sales of iPod increase. The "RATE" of increase is acceleration. We do not want run away acceleration of iPod sales, just constant steady GREAT sales numbers. Use what little brain power one might have. 140 million units sold. --- And how many Zunes have sold.?????

PS. one more small note (even thou I told my self that I would not do this for a while :-( ) Please remember that EVERY iPod sold is one less Zune or Creative or Sony music player sold. So, given 22 million iPods sold recently, just how many other players do you think sold???? And how many will they be able to sell, given that they can only sell one "other" music player for every 4 iPods. !!!!!!!!!

Apple still rocks big time.

"...... Seriously, I was planning to upgrade my ........... I am not going to do so. iPhone is getting old, and might not have that spark anymore. " -------- LOL LOL LOL

Actually I was going to buy 1000 ( )or so Dells cause they are so great, but given the fantabulous (is there really such a word) new MBA, why, of course, I will have to buy those instead.

Hmmm, maybe I should go over to a Dell or MS site and post that.

You know, I feel better already.

"Those are my comments only." --- and given my desire to read real information rather than FUD, I guess that makes me feel better.

PS. the above was written with fun in mind. ( well mostly !) Every one should buy the hardware and use the software that they choose. I am just so glad that there is an Apple hardware and software for me to choose.

en

I have lost over $100,000 in the last few weeks.

I think you were warned Apple was going to tank with the rest of the US stock market. Post real estate bubble recession.

*scratches ass*

*calls broker to sell gold and platinum at 300% profit*


*pinches Frenchies sweet laptop*

man...i would love to see apple's shares dropping down................

Jan 26, 08 - 05:35 pm Comment from: Connor MacBook

I'm waiting till the price gets back down to $7, which was when I shoulda a few years back!

Wait a big fat minute. iPod sales have not slowed at all. What has slowed is the rate of increase in sales.

Correct. And Wall Street, right or wrong, is reading it as a portend of flattening sales in the future.

Remember, whatever anyone does is never good enough for The Street. Heh if Apple had 200% iPod sales growth last quarter and forecast "only" 198% growth for the next, AAPL would still get hammered!

If history holds true, whatever Apple stock does next will be a surprise to everyone.

I'm starting to believe that The Street is the same as blood sucking lawyers. Peoples lives, hopes and financial futures are changed drastically by people who only care about putting money in their pockets. They twist the truth, leave out facts, lie and manipulate facts to benefit themselves.

After hearing Cramer talk about how they start false rumors, and watch the stock tank even though most experts say hold I find myself despising The Street.

Now on the radio there are commercials about Oil energy manipulation and the Enron Loophole.


Why can't there be laws in place to prevent this?

I feel like I'm living the movie "Boiler Room"

Jan 26, 08 - 07:24 pm Comment from: doc

Not to me. Apple will rise to about 145-150 range and then tank. This will happen between now and March. Bottom below 120, may go as far down as 100. Will not rise above 125 after that until next year. Maybe June 09.

Wow, people are bored with the iPhone already?!? Are they nuts? Don't they realize the iPhone can be constantly renewed with new apps? Did they download v1.1.3? I've got a whole 2nd page of webclips now. I use the web twice as much as a month ago. The iPhone SDK is coming soon. People don't get it, until Apple steamrolls them.

Jan 26, 08 - 07:41 pm Comment from: KingMel

@Jack - what about the new Mac Pro eight core machines? And the luster has not worn off of the iMac 20" & 24", iPhone, iPod touch, iPod nano, or Leopard. In addition, the Apple TV plus movie rental iTunes service is essentially a new product.

The Air is but the latest release in a string of great ideas/products. The sky is not falling, it's supported by Air and a lot of ground beneath it.

iPod sales have *not* flattened, nor has the *rate* of iPod sales flattened either if you include iPhone purchases in the equation. The sales numbers of iPhones (which include an iPod *inside* don'tcha know), almost exactly match the "missing" iPod sales numbers. If I wasn't poor, I would buy Apple stock hand over fist right now.

They say that youth is wasted on the young, but it's also true that wealth is wasted on the rich. All these rich dimwits selling off Apple stock, and the similarly rich but stupid "stock analysts" telling others to do the same don't deserve their millions.

If they had to try making those millions again from scratch, they wouldn't have a hope. F*ck all you upper middle class jerks and your stupid ideas about what the market would or will do in the future.

Anyone with even half a brain can should know that the price on the stock has almost nothing to do with whether you should hold it or not unless all you are after is milking small-scale short term market fluctuations. If you want a good stock for your portfolio, you look at the company itself, how it's set up, the margins it can maintain and it's liabilities.

Apple, in that light, is one of the best managed, high margin, booming companies out there.

Jan 26, 08 - 08:18 pm Comment from: TowerTone

good post, blucaso.
It's what I have been telling my investment partner for awhile.

Jan 26, 08 - 08:55 pm Comment from: BC Kelly

Time to roll this out, again


Lest you forget, Grasshopper



If you just want to make money

Stick with the 'sugar water' business



Steve - and the rest of us - with Apple

We don't have time for such non-$en$e

We're too busy Changing the World™





Thanks, BC

I got in at $72 and I have lost nothing because I haven't sold anything. I only wish I had the resources to double my holdings at today's prices, which are a year behind where we already know we are...!!

Madness amongst the sheep in today's financial markets is what it is..

Yes Apple is a great company, but the market is getting slammed. Slammed! No matter how great a company Apple is, no matter how many iPods are sold, if the Dow drops a few hundred points next week, chances are, AAPL will go with it. How much more can AAPL fall? Depends on what the overall market does. Potentially, both could fall a lot.

All the indices have exhibited major topping patterns. If the patterns are valid, this market is in serious trouble and all of Ben's horses and all of Ben's men won't be able to put the market together again. As others have noted, a healthy economy doesn't require government bailouts, the Fed panicking and suddenly slashing rates by 3/4 of a point the week before it is scheduled to meet, the possibility of the already-screwed investment banks trying to bail out the bond insurers so that $2.4 trillion dollars worth of bonds (including municipals) don't get downgraded, forcing the investment banks to write down even more losses... We are in a very bad place, folks, but the politicians dare not tell the public just how bad, possibly because they are either in denial or simply don't understand it themselves. We are in this mess because of low interest rates and easy money, so what does the government propose? Lower interest rates and easier money... And this is just a part of the overall mess we're in.

As I've posted before, I'm far from an Apple basher, having bought, in 1984, the second Macintosh model ever (the 512K Macintosh along with an Apple Imagewriter), having bought nothing but Macs since then, and having just bought a Macbook, a Mac Pro, and a 23" Cinema Display (and my wife and I have three iPods between us).

I hope I'm wrong about all this, but our economy really is in trouble.

The market was due for a correction..Good buying op..If your in long, everything will be fine.

@willyboy

So you think the "correction" is over?

correction or bear market? the problem is apple is selling at like too many times its p/e ratio--not a problem when everything is going well but if you miss a quarter or if the market is re evaluating then a growth stock like apple gets hit hard. so apple has some way to go and it has to beat this guidance soundly. I am not excited about the macbook air--i think its slow and expensive--but i think that cause i think of it as a macbook when it should be like a bigger iphone--it should be like an ipad--smaller than a macbook--not just thinner--i would change my mind if it was like 900 dollars --but it isnt--it should be an ipad and it should be under 1000.

Just tried to hook up my Comsec account today, but they are closed till tuesday. Bloody Australia Day.

By the way I'm having a party and you're all invited.

Jan 27, 08 - 07:48 am Comment from: LinuxGuyAndMacProdigalSon

According to my monthly brokerage accounts report, I have lost a lot of money on AAPL -- on paper. I'm not particularly worried.

I realized a long time ago the total disconnect between the con man/swindler Wall Street cult dominating most days of trading and the business fundamentals of the companies behind those stock symbols. I bet long term on AAPL and ride it like a roller coaster. Sure, I give up the opportunity to take short term profits by trying to outguess the crooks with their FUD designed to chase me out of my AAPL holdings. However, I am immune from margin calls and options expiry dirty games. But that way I do not miss the run upward that great performance in the real world -- making money -- makes inevitable.

Now, if I only had more cash to invest, I would load up on AAPL.

We are in a very bad place, folks, but the politicians dare not tell the public just how bad, possibly because they are either in denial or simply don't understand it themselves.

The politicians dare not tell because it's an election year.

IMO they know exactly what's going on & how bad it is. Why else would they so readily hand out billions of unfunded dollars as a "stimulus" or "rebate"?

Maybe we should all use our $600 checks to buy AAPL.

IMO they know exactly what's going on & how bad it is. Why else would they so readily hand out billions of unfunded dollars as a "stimulus" or "rebate"?

Japan went through a post real estate bubble recession about 15 years ago, taking Hawaii's economy with it.

They are still there right?

Things will work out, it might take some time though. Just like it did in Japan.

The US has the benefit of lots of open land space, so a simple increase in the population that will naturally occur is all that's in order.

This whole economic scenario has been run Federal Bank supercomputers over and over again until they got it perfect.

What would make things worst is a bunch of tax and spend liberal criminals in the White House like the Clintons again.

Mrs. Clinton is buying people's vote with a $5000 per child education grant. where does one think that money comes from? Yea, your pocket in much higher taxes, the worst thing that can happen in a recession.

You see it's easy to have a budget surplus when the economy was on a decreasing inflationary trend like it was since the 70's.

When inflation was in danger of going into deflation the Fed made cheap money available to banks which created the real estate bubble in order to get the US economy back on a inflationary trend. It worked.

It was these bad loans, sub prime and otherwise that's causing a lot of problems, but it's only a small segment of the whole housing market. Most people who are losing are just losing their second homes in Florida and Arizona.

Eventually the population will increase and these housing will be needed.

The reason why Bush ran out the illegals in the US was because they KNEW what was going to happen. Post real estate bubble recessions ARE NORMAL and EXPECTED. Jobs were needed to be free for Americans who are part of the economic computer system. On the Social Security "books".

I'm quite confident everything will be just peachy, for those who know history and saw this coming.

The ignorant, the ones who were last to sit in this game of real estate musical chairs, will lose.

What's good is we will have a steady low inflation rate, not that crazy 15-20% inflation rate seen in the 70's.

People who believed that housing prices would continue to spiral an kept borrowing on that "fake equity" and spent the money, are fools.

The stock market is going down because it was artificially high to begin with with the real estate bubble. It will stabilize and when it does is the time to buy stock.

Again just remember, THE CLINTONS ALREADY SERVED AND NOTHING HAS CHANGED!!!

So they have absolutely nothing to offer, they proved themselves by letting tons of convicted criminals, most of the Jewish faith, completely off for their crimes against innocents people.

What kind of shit is that?

This is how I think (as a general consumer):

Ipod Classic / Ipod Nano - Boring, it's the same old ipod from previous version. Nano is too fat compare to previous version.

Ipod Touch - not going to buy it since I can get iPhone for $100 more and $20 more to unlock it.

IPhone - Wait for the update since it has been out since summer 07. If I really want one, I could have get it after the price drop. Why buy it NOW?!? (I got one, and planning to sell it since it's getting a bit boring, especially when everyone seem to have one already).

Macbook Air - Lack of built-in DVD-Rom, how can I install programs with it? Forcing me to download illegal programs from the internet?? It looks good but I have to carry extra external DVD-Rom around, huh... I'll pass. What's the point of laptop if you have to carry pieces around?

Macbook - I got it, and it's the best bang for your bucks. Still using it and nothing worth upgrading at this moment.

Macbook Pro - Hmmmmm... I would buy it if I am into editing video/pictures and gaming. If I am an average daily user, why do I have to spend that much for something I don't use very much?!?

Leopard - Hahahaha~ I got a copy of it, and realized it's not so much difference from Tiger! But then, we (among 10 other friends) shared the same copy and we got it for $60 (education discount). So, it's cost us $6 each, which is not bad.

Apple TV - I don't even know how to use it yet. Why bother since I have a blu-ray DVD player hook up with my home theater system already. I don't think the quality you get from Apple TV can beat Blu-ray's power!

Time Capsule - No biggie. I know how to use external hard drive to back up my stuff. It's just a fancy name for external hard drive which cost you $150 more!

Seriously, Apple needs to start exploring into other things, like TV, LCD Monitor, All-in-one entertainment unit for your living room . . . I have tons of ideas ...

Apple's price will be $120-140 range before they announce something better in the summer 08. Seriously, I got everything from Apple already and has not been to Apple Store for almost 3 months. Apple has to do something to make me going back to their store and shop.

Jan 27, 08 - 01:17 pm Comment from: ChrissyOne

This thread is really getting weird. Where the hell did these people come from?

"So they have absolutely nothing to offer, they proved themselves by letting tons of convicted criminals, most of the Jewish faith, completely off for their crimes against innocents people."

This reads like something from your suicide video, my friend. Do yourself a favor and just blow yourself up now, before you hurt any children.

One thing I notice about people who say they haven't lost money on a stock because it's only "on paper" will tell how much money they've made on a stock they're still holding: they don't say, "it's not a profit because it's only on paper," but a stock that they're down on is only a "paper loss." You can't have it both ways. If you think a stock you paid $100 per share for, that is now selling at $50 per share, is not a loss, try convincing someone to buy it from you for your original $100 per share price. It's still a loss, but with the possibility of it becoming a gain should the stock go back up.

It's either not a loss--or a gain--until the stock is sold, or it is a loss--or a gain--regardless of whether the stock is sold.

did i hear someone mention the words "profit-takers" + "apple stock" in the same sentence?

pwnt...

This info is coming from a cow rancher blog. LOL.
RESPECT!

And why is MDN removing people´s posts? Yesterday there were a lot more in this thread and now there are fewer.

@ChrissyOne

Here's a link for you girlie about the disgrace brought to Jews in general with the criminal Jews being pardoned by Clinton.

http://www.beth-elsa.org/be_s0427.htm

So the Clintons ARE BAD PEOPLE!

and more

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4158/is_20010224/ai_n14374331

and more

http://archive.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2001/2/23/190239.shtml

Perhaps you would be so nice to let me steal everything you have and then just let me get away with it?

Clinton is bad news for this country.

If pardoning criminals was the worst our politicians did, things would be easy.

How about the hair-brained policies (from ALL sides) that have brought us to the brink of socialism, economic ruin, another world war, etc etc?

And would someone please tell me what any of this has to do with Apple stock. Other than global anarchy might be kinda hard on Apple's sales...

MW: voice

Jan 27, 08 - 05:12 pm Comment from: MacFhearghaile

Where did this stupid nut case Not Drugged come from? Come on MDN block this freak he's beyond weird.

has anyone noticed that the iPod touch dock is now the same as the iPhone unlike it was at first? I just noticed that on mine. It uses to be a black reflector thing and now it is the silver one from the iPhone

The US (and the world as a result) economies need a better president than Clinton or Obama.

Apple's stock will RISE or FALL further based upon the economic decisions of the newly elected PRESIDENT.

The correlation is clear.

@Marty

Let's not underestimate the damage/carnage done to our economy by the CURRENT president.

It amazes me how little people know about economics and when things are good or bad economically.

Mark, you're a dipshit. God help you if things do actually get bad. If the sky is falling now, the minute that we hit unemployment like Europe has seen in the last decade, you'll be jumping from a bridge.

Oh, and I had an opinion... once.

@ not drugged. Actually this is not really like the Japan crash of 15 years ago. Japan refused to deal in a sharp and protracted way with their real estate bubble bursting so their pain was lon and drawn out and even today their banking system still have not set things right. Here in the US we are taking the approach of calling time of death on a hibernating creature.
With the fed raising rates to fend off inflation early last year, Sub-prime lenders that were writing sleaszy baloon realestate loans to people who could not afford it got caught with their pants down as thoise loans balooned and record defaults started to happen. Many of thes. loan were already sold on the seconday loan market but their were probably only a default on 10% of them. The conpanys that facilitated the buying or bought those loans are now starting to see bits of this early effect from last year hit their portfolio. They take a guestimate and to the total possible fall out (how many bmillions of dollars may default on the comming months) and immediately write down the losses aganisat last quarters profits.
An economist on Front Line(PBS) said these companies are writing down up to 40% of their loan portfolio. So what happens in the next quarter where olny say 5% of the loans in that protfolio tank. Well you will see a lot of back room analyst with golden eggs on their faces as all of a sudden there will be record profits from the likes of CIti Bank , Merril Lynch and JP Morgan Chase. The employment rate is still strong but as the Army retreats from one front the people who were National grardsmen will start to reassimilate throughout the population and unless we start making a bigger pie. The mental and physically wounded will cost the country for years to come. Aside from the dollar being weak that is the only thing we have in common wiht Japan's realestate bust of 15 years ago. We prepay it they dragged it out. The markets will worry and fret about who will become president and you will see a full fledged recovery by March 2009. Til then I think we have hit bottom but we will see a lot of ups and downs between now and then.

Jan 27, 08 - 11:52 pm Comment from: doc

What I wrote earlier just changed, for the worse. No rise in aapl stock price this year.

http://entertainment.timesonline.co.uk/tol/arts_and_entertainment/music/article3261591.ece

You know sometime ago, 8 years to be precise, the world, including myself, thought that Steve Jobs was mad to announce the ipod. The economy was tanking, Amzn traded under $10, we had just come off the worst disaster in American history since Pearl Harbor and it was gloom and doom everywhere. Sell everything was the mantra.

Apple exploded to the upside. Year after year, no slow down. Then iTunes, another explosion. Simple, baby steps leading up to a huge run-up.

It seems to me that last year the stock dropped almost 33% based on an "ipod slowdown." The same thing happened the year before that one too. So much so, that now, I am resigned to ignore these nuances, even the current 33% drop is almost like a coiled spring. Yes, I know about the economy! But it isn't any different from 2001. Housing stunk! Rates stunk! Yet people were still buying iPods and Macs.

I am an investor and not an Apple Fanboy and I think that there will be a massive rebound. Stocks are fragile and the runups in tech stocks can happen in the space of 3 days when short covering and technicals come into play.

If you are looking for points, look at the Apple low 120-130 and high of 200. Then take 25%, 33% of the distance ~70-80 points and look for a rise to 140-150 by next earnings. If the market is more bullish, I would look to 155-160...Not 200! That would be reserved for Christmas.

And I would look at the historical data to support this idea. Yahoo has excellent reflectoscopes which you can tie to news and earnings stories back to 2000. History does repeat itself.


Rick.

I sure as heck HOPE Apple pops soon due to oversold conditions, but I sure as heck ain't gonna BET on it.

http://tinyurl.com/28auhg

Below average FUD aimed at Apple. What about the very healthy market share of Sony's PS2?

History in this case is not a predictor of the future. The iPod's days of high growth in sales are over. Intel Macs have exhausted the replacement cycle where people ditched now obsolete PowerPC Macs, or switched because they could now run Windows natively. Mac sales volumes have moved to a new plateau. iPhone sales are nothing to get excited about.

People are now realizing that Apple is not quite the growth stock they thought it was, and the price is changing accordingly.

The US doesn't need a president or congress anymore. The world hates em all anyway. Let the people take care of their own problems in their states thru their votes. Stop making the rest of the world conform to your views. Fix your own country before your economy collapses and screws up the rest of the world even more than it already is.