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"There will always be a market for small iPod devices for jogging, leave-in-the-car iPods..."
And don't forget: "My First iPod" for toddlers.

Jun 24, 08 - 09:01 am Comment from: qka

No.

Not when there is the recurring monthly cost of phone service.

Not when people will do battle on a bus over it because it costs so much - even @ $199, that's expensive.

Not when it does not work in the Great Republic of Vermont. (No ATT coverage.)

Hahahahaha!!

Kill off the iPod? With it's HUGE storage capacity?

Dream on.

Apple REALLY screwed up with the iPod on only one thing...

Not making a Firewire/USB combination like they did for optical/analog audio in/out.

USB is GOD AWEFULLY SLOW compared to the old Firewire iPods.

We Buy premium Mac's for their higher connection speed options and then can't use it to fill large capacity iPods.

WTF APPLE????

"God Dam America!" Vote for Obama!

Jun 24, 08 - 09:04 am Comment from: HMCIV

History has shown, the only thing capable of killing the iPod is another iPod. Kinda like the only person capable of beating up Chuck Norris is Chuck Norris... with an iPod.

Jun 24, 08 - 09:10 am Comment from: Jay-Z

"But it's likely that the iPhone may become the replacement for many people's iPod and mobile phone"

It's LIKELY?? Move over, Miss Cleo. Dan Warne is quite the oracle.

Jun 24, 08 - 09:10 am Comment from: Mr. Reeee

I don't think so…

When Apple cranks out an 80GB or 160GB iPhone, THEN the iPod will be dead. Even then, it's a big Maybe.

I like having a separate audio device. I'd rather have an iPhone with a charged battery, than one with a dead battery that I wore down listening to music.

How about a hard drive based iPod touch, Apple?

Jun 24, 08 - 09:12 am Comment from: Mr. Reeee

And another thing…

Why do people write such idiotic articles? Isn't there enough pointless drivel floating around without generating MORE?

why does there have to be a killer ? cant another device merely be an equally or more successful product ? (probably not no )

"An 8GB iPhone will, in fact, end up costing about the same amount as an iPod nano." Uh, hardly, The Nano doesn't incur monthly charges to be useful. The real question is how Apple will price the iPod Touch 2.0. (I'm holding out for a 16GB at $299.)

It doesn't matter how much storage they eventually put into the iPhone. There will always be a huge market that doesn't want to pay a monthly fee to listen to music, watch movies, etc. It would not matter if Apple opened up the iPhone to every cellular carrier.

Jun 24, 08 - 09:17 am Comment from: gzero

You people are assuming that high capacity iPods are Apple's best selling devices when in fact, it's the lower capacity nano and Shuffle that are the best selling iPods. You also can't dismiss the fact that the potential customer base for an iPhone is vastly greater than the one for the iPod. It's only a matter of time before the iPod is effectively "killed" - by the iPhone.

gzero: so let me get this straight. You want to listen to 16 gigs of music, so you have to buy a $300 iPhone and then $80 plus a month for service (assuming you have it in your area)? Don't see it happening. Then why not have rented music with your iPhone contract? There are plenty of people who do not want to be locked into a contract for iPod only features.

I've already dumped my iPods for my iPhone. Convenience wins. I've far too many songs to fit on any iPod so I'm used to making playlists. May not suit everybody but I think the article has a point.

I have my iPhone in my pocket with the tunes and films I want to watch, and my 60GB iPod classic in my car loaded with my music.

I also have a shuffle for cycling and jogging, and I bought a nano for no particular reason other than it looks cool, and I love iPods.

So I don't think the iPod is ready to die just yet.

If I had to choose one, it'd be my iPhone - best phone ever.

of course the ipod will disapeear because all functionality (5 MP camera, gps, mp3/video-player, handheld games) will end up in one convergence device soon. this convergence threat was the reason apple was developing the iphone in the first place. in a few years the iphone will have many form factors and price-points (like the ipod today) and you will be able to buy it unsubsidized (or much lower with a contract) and use it on any network prepaid. dont want the monthly fees? leave the phone-capability off and use it as an ipod (and wifi-ichat-games-itunes-video-player-whatever) device.

Jun 24, 08 - 10:01 am Comment from: ChaseWebb

Seems to me he's forgetting that the iPhone doesn't cost $199. The hardware does, but the now required service makes it cost far more than the base price and far more than any iPod. Sure, initially the iPhone is as cheap or cheaper but toss in a two-year agreement on that and we have a device that won't cannibalize the non-contract iPod.

Parents will certainly not by an iPhone instead a iPod to their kids!
There's certainly, yet, a large market for music-only devices.

No the iphone will not kill off the ipod.

Next story

Ever try to scrub through a song on an iPhone? It sucks! Until they fix that, my iPhone will never replace my iPod.

"dont want the monthly fees? leave the phone-capability off and use it as an ipod (and wifi-ichat-games-itunes-video-player-whatever) device." - ralph from berlin

Nice idea, very nice one. But this would be a very expensive iPod Touch since you would have to pay for the phone capabilities even if you don't use it. You should give the customers just what they need, not increasing the price to give them all just in case some day they might want to use this or that option.

iPod Touch is here to stay. It will simply evolve as a plateform of choice for who wants a very powerful and portable media/entertainment/game device. And like the article points out "There will always be a market for small iPod devices for jogging, leave-in-the-car iPods for car entertainment and so on."

Jun 24, 08 - 10:12 am Comment from: gzero

@Randy,

1. I live in Germany, where at least 90% of the country has 3G

2. I personally never need to carry more than 4 gigs of music with me at any given time, since I'm a big fan of smart playlists, and i will never listen to that much music anyway

3. The service plan with T-Mobile in Germany is indeed crap compared to plans in other European countries, but it's far better than the plans most US cell phone users get, since general all calls within the T-Mobile network are free, all incoming calls are free (unlike US where you have to pay for incoming and outgoing calls. That's just crazy!), access to over 8000 Wi-Fi hotspots is free.

4. I like the convenience of having mostly everything in one device, and since I - like most people - carry my cell phone and iPod with me at all times, the notion of killing two birds with one stone is appealing to me.

I've already dumped my iPods and Sony Ericsson mobile phone for an iPhone last summer. I had no need for a regular iPod or touch since the iPhone does the same things they do anyway. I do still have an iPod shuffle though for working out, doing yard work, etc.

Right now, I can pay $199 and no recurring monthly fee for an 8GB iPod nano. Or I can pay (well, in a couple weeks) $199 plus $75 a month for an 8GB iPhone 3G.

Given that my current cell phone is a $25 prepaid cell that I wind up paying about $7 a month for minutes for, because I use fewer than 10 minutes a month, how is the iPhone *ever* going to be a better deal?

"Kill" is the wrong word, "cannibalize" is more appropriate.

AAPL will sell more of the higher margin product and will consequently make more money for its shareholders.

Who cares which column in the ledger gets the $$$? Its all in the same company.

Jun 24, 08 - 10:26 am Comment from: Andy

Well, I think the article has an interesting perspective, but it's unlikely the iPod will disappear (ebay? Amazon? Resellers...). It's more likely that future iPods will take cues from the Touch, moving beyond the glossy white appearance and click wheel functionality.

However, Apple's 3G iPhone ad has the best line ever...

"The only phone that can beat the iPhone... the NEW iPhone 3G!"

I'm in the process of replacing my 60 gig ipod photo and there's no way I'd touch an iPhone because:

1. The monthly payments to a phone cxompany just don't justify the purchase
2. The capacity is way below my needs
3. I need a second ipod (a flash based unit) for cardio exercise.

Just for the record I won't be buying the latest ipod classic either. The interface (Cover Flow) isn't as easy to scroll through my music collection so I'll be getting refurbished ipods.

This user says maybe, but only when iP's capacity is upped to match high-end iPods.

And also of course, when those peripheral makers (B&W;Zeppelin anyone? Yum!) add an iP-friendly dock.

Who are these mysterious people that have iPods and no cell phone?

Even if I opted to buy an iPod touch instead of an iPhone, I'd still have the $50 monthly bill for my old Razr.

I'm surprised to see MDN users apply the "add two years of service" method to grossly inflate the price of an iPhone. I'm sure some of you are prepaid, but in the US prepaid makes up the minority of the mobile customer footprint. Most of us are getting screwed with a postpaid plan whether we pay AT&T;, Sprint or Verizon and the point of the iPhone is convergence. I NEED a cell phone and I WANT an iPod, and these devices are now combined.

There will still be a market for the nano and shuffle but as the iPhone storage capacity increases, sales of iPods altogether will decrease.

Many of you also can't see into the future too well (for Apple junkies that is). You know the iPhone will eventually end up on every American carrier at various sizes, pricepoints and price plans. Why do you speak as if this situation will remain the same years from now?

Jun 24, 08 - 10:38 am Comment from: Predrag

GZero has it right. In the current iPod stable, the Classic is on life support. According to most analysts' research into sales data (Apple doesn't break down iPod sales by model), iPod Classic is barely selling. By far the most popular model is the cheapest Nano. There was other research conducted on this, which concluded that the average iPod has about 3GB. The smallest (cheapest) Nano is suffiient practically for everyone. When we dig a deep further we find that the mean value is even lower - less than 2GB. In other words, for every one of you who has over 20GB of data, there are twenty who have 1.5GB.

IPod Classis is, at this point, so cheap to build that Apple has no reason to kill it, even if they sell 500 of them per year. They will probably continue to build it until perhaps solid-state drives become large enough. I do have a feeling, thought, that the Nano will always remain the most popular model, and that 4 - 8GB will always remain the sweet spot for vast majority of consumers.

IPod will not completely die any time soon, but it will definitely be significantly scaled down, as vast majority consumers end up getting a consolidated device (a phone and a music player). This is a typical no-brainer.

Jun 24, 08 - 10:42 am Comment from: Andy

@R2

Oh, I don't doubt that the iPhone will become as ubiquitous as the iPod in time. As I said earlier, it's possible that the iPod will transform with the times and become more iPhone-esque (the Touch).

I suppose the best way to tell if there's a market for the iPod still is if sales are maintaining, even with the iPhone around. Will the 3G make a difference? Wait and see.

I think the main hurdle for Apple will be the technology involved in expanding the HD capacity with SSDs whilst keeping prices in a margin where people will buy.

Making SSDs affordable may be a year or two off, at least.

Jun 24, 08 - 10:43 am Comment from: fastmemory

No way. The iPhone could have 500 GB storage, a 12 meg camera with flash and Comcast-like internet speeds and I would not buy one until there was a cheaper plan than a minimum of $70+ per month.

Jun 24, 08 - 10:49 am Comment from: Macintosh

@ Mad Mac Maniac:

I'm pretty sure they are using USB to keep the Windows users life simple. It's just easier to have one universal plug, without the Firewire part hanging around all the time when it's not in use.

Jun 24, 08 - 10:55 am Comment from: shen

"An 8GB iPhone will, in fact, end up costing about the same amount as an iPod nano -- a strategy that's clearly designed to attack other smartphone companies, but may, along the way, kill off sales of the iPod,"

and i thought *I* was bad at math......

You may not doubt the ubiquity of the iPhone, Andy, but there are people like fastmemory talking about the $70 priceplan as if the situation will remain stagnant on AT&T;for years to come. Like it will always be the two iPhones at $199 and $299. We've seen such drastic shifts over the past 12 months alone and I'm surprised there are those who can't see that Steve Jobs will eventually knock down every single roadblock they list.

Jun 24, 08 - 11:02 am Comment from: Predrag

It is always fascinating how the smaller the minority, the more vocal it is in its opinion. Logic, as well as numbers, seem to clearly point that iPod is on its way out, and iPhone will be taking over in the coming years. Yet, most adamant, ("... end of story. Next!...") types of statements seem to come from the fringe group that for some rather unique reasons doesn't like iPhone plans and has the need for a separate music device.

Over the next few quarters, we should see iPhone rapidly overtake iPod sales numbers. Ironically, the most likely candidate to suffer the most will be the most popular Nano. In the relative (percentage-wise) breakdown between iPods, it is likely that the Classic might regain increas its share, not on the account of more devices being sold, but due to general drop in total number, especially Nanos being sold.

The MP3 player market has been pretty much mature for the past few years. IPod is the only non-commodity device, all others falling into a more-or-less generic category. As consumers are learning (with the help of the iPhone) about the consolidated devices, as soon as their refresh time approaches for their existing hardware, the RAZRs and iPods will be replaced by iPhones. The vocal minority will continue to buy their iPods (but there was also a very vocal minority - - myself included - - that bought and loved the G4 Cube).

For Apple, this is probably even better, since the iPhone carries an obscene profit margin, compared to all other hardware.

Jun 24, 08 - 11:09 am Comment from: Bigwig

What is this?

Didn't Jobs say on stage in front of an audience at the WWDC on the 9th June 2008 that the iPhone would be the same price in every country as $199. Presumably as he nor any of his team made no mention about contracts at this time the iPhone will still cost $199 (£99 here in the UK), wether or not you have a contract.

The iPhone will not be sold under contract by O2 and It has been banded about on the net, that here in the UK the iPhone will cost between £350 and £600 under pay as you go, which is half the cost, at the low end and high end the lion share of a laptop.
If that is the case then I for one would not by an iPhone and would rather invest my money in a laptop which I could put to better use.

What i would like to see happen is for the touch to get added functions now that the iPhone is subsidized. They could add a camera, speakers and a mic. Then double the capacity. A 32gb Touch with these additions can give people a real option. If apple were to put a forward facing camera on it and charge $400 it could be what many are waiting for.

Yes, I'm reiterating many of the same thoughts, but no matter how much memory or battery life the iPhone has, until there is competition to AT&T;I'm not touching one.

I'm perfectly happy with my four year-old Motorola flip phone and 80GB 5th Gen iPod. Would consider an iTouch when the price comes down and the storage goes up. I'll second the wanting of FireWire. Let the PC users compromise for a change.

Apples MBA sales are embarrassing and its total Mac sales are meager. To quickly raise cash, Apple plans to kill the iPod and offer consumers two choices: iPhone or nothing else.

My iPod is staying in the car.

My iPhone will not replace my iPod.

Period.

As a matter of fact, I am going to buy a new iPod after I get the new iPhone.

Jun 24, 08 - 12:38 pm Comment from: KingMel

If Apple ditched the iPod touch and sold the iPhone without a phone contract as a replacement, then that would be one step towards phasing out the iPod. If Apple also radically boosted the memory on the iPhone, then it could also phase out the iPod classic.

But the tiny shuffle and nano are going to be around for a long time because they provide superior portability. Given higher memory capacity combined with advancements in display technology (e.g., flexible deployable displays, holographic projection, retinal projection, etc.), the shuffle form factor might eventually cover nano video functionality as well. Perhaps those technologies would also serve to finally completely converge the iPhone with the iPod.

R2,

It's all very well and good to talk about price plans in one country but Apple sells the iPhone in many other countries than the one you refer to. In Australia our mobile are just too expensive to interest me. Likewise even if I go prepaid with a way cool internet capable phone I'm going to spend money just so I can be online anywhere I go. I say again it's just not worth it.

Now as much I respect Apple it doesn't mean I have to own every Apple product. And until mobile internet use is deducted from a home internet account I'm just not interested. I've got more important things to spend my money on than owning a product that is going to continuously bleed money from me.

MDN magic word=cost. Go figure!

Jun 24, 08 - 05:33 pm Comment from: BiZarRo BaLlmEr

expensive monthly bill? No way.

Jun 24, 08 - 05:57 pm Comment from: shen

hi ho! i know, i know, you are off topic! but you wanna take this opportunity to prove your MBA sales claims or this just you running at the mouth again?

Wy live in an apartment and pay $1000/mth in rent, when I will give you a 3000 sq ft home for free!

All you have to do is pay me $5500/mth in user fees for 15 years.

The new iPod killer math...

Gman,

Right on dude! Exept we pay over $2500 per month in home rental and we have a mortgage on another house which the rent from that one is helping to pay off the banks. And then I'm going to pay more monthly payments so I can have constant internet access. Having my music collection is one thing but I can wait until I get home to access the net. Likewise GPS is a luxury and I can still make do with maps made from paper.

If Apple is thinking of replacing the ipod with the iPhone I'll be one unimpressed Apple user. I really don't feel like paying for an item where music isn't the most important feature. In other words I don't feel like buying an item where the cost is related to the features that I just won't be using because it's just too damn expensive. Putting it bluntly, I just don't need many of the iPhone's features so I'm not going to buy one.

So I accept the fact that there are people who don't are more wealthy, or don't have family home commitments, or don't have high rental and mortgage costs.

What I'm saying is that there are many people who are doing it tough and there are some people who think their lifestyle is going to change because of the iPhone, or their personal happiness is going to increase because they have the next new thing. In reality it just doesn't work like that.

When the iPod came along it meant I could listen to my music collection whenever I like. But the iPhone's main features don't affect me one iota because of the ongoing cost.

Only persons with zero analytical ability would suggest that the new iPhone is actually $199.

Oops that should be except. Sorry for my mistake.

Steve516,

You're right (aren't you??) it costs more because of the ongoing phone charges. And it cost more than $199 in Australia without the phone plans.