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At this point, Dilger is speculating and has no proof but it really is weird that there weren't more Android phones around. I expected at least a dozen Android phones announced at this point, even if they weren't quite in production yet.

Meanwhile, WinMo 6.5 was being hyped like mad and it's not gonna be ready till the end of the year?!

Feb 18, 09 - 11:44 am Comment from: Demon

"The only thing Windows Mobile is good for is distracting IT shops already tied to Windows from discovering a functional mobile web platform that could be saving them time and money.

That’s not going to keep Microsoft alive in the consumer market, where users expect things to work, not just give a flashy demo or keep them busy browsing through TechNet. And that’s why Microsoft’s mobile efforts are dying in a far more lethal sense than its temporary blows to keep Android out of the spotlight."

I'd say, that about sums it up!

Microsoft knows that they still making Windows Mobile version for not swallow they pride. WinMo has been dead for so many years, they just didn't realize that until Barcelona Conference.

Microsoft expected to get some of the market "lefts" of the iPod with the zune, but they couldn't. Now, they wanted to grab a piece of market that iPhone is going to left before it is too late, but there is already so many brands fighting for a piece of that "Smart Phones'.

Feb 18, 09 - 12:06 pm Comment from: DogGone

The recession is slowly down R&D;for some companies. It's a big mistake but they think they can save money by limiting development of new tech. Android is still a work in progress and I bet none of the mobiles want to invest money to get it up to speed in a short turnaround time.

Of course Apple are doing the opposite and coming out with new stuff that will continue to drive its market share. They'll continue to make money during this tough period and will be able to capitalize when the upturn starts.

Say after me -
Windows Mobile outsold iPhone in Q4

Say it again -
In the holiday season more Windows Mobile devices shipped than iPhones.

How about this - in 2008 more Windows Mobile devices were sold than iPhones.

Or how about this -
Apple saw a steep drop in iPhones sales from Q3 to Q4 of around 40%, while Windows Mobile sales grew, bolstered by great full-featured hardware and software.

Or lastly - iPhones sales are dropping again, and is set to do poorly in the recession.

Feb 18, 09 - 12:13 pm Comment from: Big Als MBP

@ Viktor,

I think your English is getting better.

I understood that last post.

Try using 'left overs' instead of 'lefts' next time.

Good post.

Microsoft is going to play just as dirty as it always has..

Have you heard Ballmer jumping on the 'open' and accessible bandwagon?

It's so pathetic, so transparent, it makes you want to stick him in the eye with a blunt Zune.

Feb 18, 09 - 12:20 pm Comment from: CYxodus

@Surur

Booop! Booop! Windows troll alert! Windows troll alert! Sycophant distortion field detected.

@Cyxodus
Actually the article is a troll, written by a notorious troll, and is full of speculation.

I just stated the facts. 40% drop in sales. Wow.

Feb 18, 09 - 12:27 pm Comment from: Zune Tang®

OMFG. This guy can't be serious. There are two reasons why you didn't see Google’s Android at the GSMA Mobile World Congress:

1) MAC, not Microsoft, pressured mobile phone manufacturers to stay away from Android. It’s a threat to the crappy, keyboard-challenged I-Phone. Microsoft doesn't play games. They just make great products. What MAC didn't see coming is…

2) Microsoft Windows Mobile 6.5 is a delight and will be a huge winner in the market place. Mobile phone manufacturers know great interfaces and I'm sure when they saw Windows Mobile 6.5 they couldn't wait to partner with the creative geniuses in Redmond.

And it’s a pleasant bonus for IT shops that they will easily and cost effectively adapt wonderfully productive Windows Mobile to their infrastructure. I'm happy for them and I salute their good works. I asked the IT guys here at work and they said Android or the dumpy I-Phone would be too hard.

Your potential. Our passion.™

@Big Als MBP

Thanks a lot! knowing more that 3 languages is kind of difficult for us. But necessary if you want to have a work. Thanks for the tip.

Feb 18, 09 - 01:10 pm Comment from: MrScrith

@Surur

Where exactly are you getting your information, link please. From what I can tell from some quick searching iPhone sales reports are all over the place, I haven't been able to find one source that has good figures for both Q3 and Q4, even just looking at Q3 I'm getting numbers from 4.7mil units to 7.9mil units, also there is confusion between Apple's fiscal quarter and the Calendar quarter (Apple is off by one, Apple Q4 is Calendar Q3)

So, until you give us what you are basing your information on you are statement caries no weight and is only opinion.

@Surur

What 40% drop in sales? It was a strong 4Q for Apple. I googled for iPhone 4Q sales and the only big drop I saw was in Canada. I'm pretty used to US-centric net (which sucks) but Canadian?

And DED is a damn good Mac evangelist! While I have read a few articles which are embarrassing bull, those were outside his core competency. This article, while speculative, is within that competency. And he makes an interesting and reasoned case.

Surur = the regular, boring, repetitive Redmond paid, attacker of anything Dilger.

Ignore it.

Lets see
Calender Q3 2008 sales 6.9 million according to APPLE.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/100980-apple-f4q08-qtr-end-9-27-08-earnings-call-transcript?page=-1

Calendar Q4 2008 4.4 million sold according to APPLE.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/115797-apple-inc-f1q09-qtr-end-12-27-08-earnings-call-transcript?page=-1

I thought sales were supposed to go up in the festive season?

Windows Mobile Q4 2008 5 million sold
http://www.intomobile.com/2009/01/22/windows-mobile-smartphone-sales-trump-iphone-in-q4-2008.html

It seems they do. For Windows Mobile that is.

You wrote, "Comment from: Surur
Say after me -
Windows Mobile outsold iPhone in Q4

Say it again -
In the holiday season more Windows Mobile devices shipped than iPhones.

How about this - in 2008 more Windows Mobile devices were sold than iPhones.

Or how about this -
Apple saw a steep drop in iPhones sales from Q3 to Q4 of around 40%, while Windows Mobile sales grew, bolstered by great full-featured hardware and software.

Or lastly - iPhones sales are dropping again, and is set to do poorly in the recession."

In Q3, Apple shipped 6.9M iPhones, of those, 4.9M were sold, and 2M were to fill channel inventory, since the inventory started at zero, due to the change to a new model.

In Q4, Apple shipped 4.4M iPhones, and dropped channel inventory by 250k. In other words, they actually sold 4.65M iPhones.

So, the drop in SOLD iPhones was from 4.9M to 4.65M, a 5% drop, sequentially, NOT 40%.

MS does not sell phones, they ship licenses. They shipped 18M licenses in 2008, even though they had told analysts they were projecting 20M. This missed their target by 10%.

Apple shipped over 13M iPhones in 2008. They had projected more than 10M, exceeding their projection by 30%.

The bottom line is who is scrambling in the cellphone business?

MS makes about $15 per license, for about $270M in 2008 in revenues. Apple makes about $600 per iPhone for about $8B in 2008 revenue, close to 30x more than MS.

Feb 18, 09 - 02:36 pm Comment from: MrScrith

@Surur

Thank you, very informative.

btw, out of curiosity, what was Win Mobile sales for Q3? I've tried searching a bit but all I seem to find for Q3 windows mobile numbers are from Gartner and they are saying 4.7mil for the iPhone so I can't trust those numbers to be accurate.

@Surur

Ballmer... is that you?

Nice spin but no cigar. The Q3 numbers for iPhone reflected the fact that the much-anticipated 3G iPhone was rolled out that quarter so naturally there was a sales spike. And since 6.9 million people had already just bought the phone, it's not surprising that there was a leveling off during the next sales quarter. But it still represents 11.3 million sales in 6 months.

What were the Q3 sale figures for Windows Mobile? Why didn't you include that info? Maybe because of things like this:

http://www.lammersonline.nl/2008/12/27/Q3GartnerSmartphoneSalesCijfersQ32008.aspx

The key info from that link being:

"The success of iPhone 3G sales in the third quarter of 2008 propelled the Mac OS X to the No. 3 position in the global OS provider rankings. For the first time, iPhone sales exceeded sales of Microsoft Windows Mobile devices worldwide and in North America."

Why not tell the whole story...hmm?

@ken

In fact, for calender 2008, Windows Mobile sold 20 million smartphones. They missed their target in FY 2008, ending in June.

Secondly, where is your reference for sell in and through numbers? I provided a link, where's yours.

Thirdly, funny how you always only hear the 6.9 million number touted, when sell though was actually much lower. Does this mean the iPhone was NEVER actually the second biggest platform in the world?

As I dont invest in Apple, I could not care less how much profit they make. Pity Apple did not use any of those cents to buy cut and paste.

And if you ask who is scrambling the phone industry - if you look at Mobile World Congres is certainly looks like Windows Mobile is winning.

@doce

According to Ken, Apple stuffed the channel. Thats helps in the short term, but leads exactly to these kinds of shipment drops Apple saw in Q4.

Of course Apple fans only look at the headline numbers, not the real numbers

@Surur

How can Apple "stuff the channel" when the channel never had the 3G phone in the first place? And with the 3G Apple was moving beyond just the U.S. for the first time. They were starting up the worldwide market.

Windows Mobile is an OS, not a phone so they didn't sell any phones at all in 2008; MS does not make a phone.

This comment:

"And if you ask who is scrambling the phone industry - if you look at Mobile World Congres is certainly looks like Windows Mobile is winning."

tells me you must definitely work for MS. And as I've noticed, MS fans just manipulate facts and numbers until they can make themselves feel better rather than deal with reality. Keep doing EXACTLY what you're doing now Ballmer...er uh Surur. It's making Apple's job much easier and therefore making my stock investment much more profitable.

Doce

Ask ken.

Either Apple had a near 40% drop, or they shipped many more than they could sell, and over-estimated demand.

Which one do you think?

1. Say what you want, MS has basically gone nowhere in the last 10 years. 18 million licenses vs Apple's 14 million iPhones last year and Apple is still expanding into new markets.
2. And while marketshare is important, revenue is even more important, so while Apple is breathing down MS's neck in marketshare, Apple has totally blown past them in revenue. MS can't seem to make up in volume what it's lacking in margins in this market.
3. The App Store is on an exponential trajectory. Neither MS or anyone else has come up with an answer to the AppStore. Sure there are other mobile app stores around, just let me know when a solo developer makes $200,000 in a couple months all by himself on Skymarket or Ovi.
4. WinMobile 6.5 is late and it's purely a stopgap solution to keep everyone happy until WinCe 7 which was already supposed to be here now. All the 6.5 goodness isn't even available yet, and why does it have to be covered by each handset maker's own eye candy?

1) Like everyone, Microsoft started from nothing and helped build the smartphone market. Your faith that Windows Mobile sales growth will start going backwards is misplaced.
2) Does this also apply to the desktop OS, or is it suddenly different then?
3) The app store is filled with toy apps, and have no special features which could not easily be copied (just like the iPhone)
4) Doesn't matter too much, because it does not seem to be impeding WM sales. When is cut and paste coming to the iPhone again (or turn by turn navigation?)

<<Comment from: Surur
@ken

In fact, for calender 2008, Windows Mobile sold 20 million smartphones. They missed their target in FY 2008, ending in June.

Secondly, where is your reference for sell in and through numbers? I provided a link, where's yours.

Thirdly, funny how you always only hear the 6.9 million number touted, when sell though was actually much lower. Does this mean the iPhone was NEVER actually the second biggest platform in the world?

As I dont invest in Apple, I could not care less how much profit they make. Pity Apple did not use any of those cents to buy cut and paste.

And if you ask who is scrambling the phone industry - if you look at Mobile World Congres is certainly looks like Windows Mobile is winning.>>

Delude yourself all you want.

Dude, read the transcripts from the last two conference calls at Seekingalpha.com. It's all there in the transcripts. Doesn't take a rocket scientist to look it up.

I never said the iPhone was the "second biggest platform in the world". You are creating a strawman argument.

LOL, if you think that WinMo is winning, I've got a bridge to sell you.

This is too easy, like shooting fish in a barrel!

<<Comment from: Surur
@doce

According to Ken, Apple stuffed the channel. Thats helps in the short term, but leads exactly to these kinds of shipment drops Apple saw in Q4.

Of course Apple fans only look at the headline numbers, not the real nu>>

Wow, you must have sawdust for brains. I NEVER said Apple stuffed the channel. Stuffing the channel is what MS does.

Filling the channel is different. There were no iPhones in the channel at the start of Q3. Apple had to fill the channel to NORMAL inventory levels of 5 to 6 weeks. It's a one time bump, but everyone has to do it. How else do you fill the channel?

Stuffing is when you build up channel inventory BEYOND normal levels. For example, MS stuffed the channel back in Q4 of 07 in order to meet their Xbox360 target. Then it took 6 months to clear out that inventory.

MS fanboys know how to throw dirt, and spin words, but cannot face the facts themselves. Do you get paid by Ballmer? Are you an astroturfer?

<<Comment from: Surur
Doce

Ask ken.

Either Apple had a near 40% drop, or they shipped many more than they could sell, and over-estimated demand.

Which one do you think?>>

More crap. They filled the channel in Q3. Normal inventory of 5 to 6 weeks was 2M units. Think about it.

Actually, with crap for brains, I shouldn't expect you to get it. There were 13 weeks in a quarter, you take your 5M sold, divide by 13 weeks and then multiply by 5 to 6 for your 5 to 6 week channel inventory. That's 1.9M to 2.3M. Got it? 2M is right in that normal range.

Now, Apple ran down inventory by 250k in Q4 . They stated in the conference call that inventories were brought a little lower than normal. Actual sell-thru was 250k higher than the number shipped of 4.4M. That means 4.65M were sold, or 5% less than in Q3 of 4.9M.

Are you that daft?

Wow- Apple fans get abusive very quickly. Is your real name iEye per chance?

Stuff/fill, the difference is minimal. The fact is Apple shipped way more than it sold, so the 6.9 million number widely posted is not a real measure of demand or marketshare. The lower 4.4 million number however, is, and therefore this implied there is bigger demand for Windows Mobile than iPhone.

Dude, there is NO DEMAND for WinMo. People buy cellphones, not WinMo. The iPhone is a cellphone, people can buy it. WinMo is NOT a cellphone. People don't buy it, nor do they "demand" it.

KenC
Of course you are very wrong. There are many phones, a small proportion run Windows Mobile, and some people chose those over the other ones for the OS. In fact, on most carriers Windows Mobile phones cost more than the iPhone. You dont buy a Windows phone by accident.

This is not the desktop where Windows is the default - going Windows Mobile is a conscious choice - for an OS where you are free to do what you want, be it install any application, use it to control a robot, do turn by turn navigation or just change the background of the today screen, all things Apple wont let you do.

I heard jailbreaking is now illegal also...

1) Like everyone, Microsoft started from nothing and helped build the smartphone market. Your faith that Windows Mobile sales growth will start going backwards is misplaced.

I didn't say they would go backwards, they are just going to stay in the low teens in spite of helping to create the market and thinking that their desktop strategy would work in the mobile market.

2) Does this also apply to the desktop OS, or is it suddenly different then?

Nope, it's the same, MS has volume and revenue in the Desktop market but Apple still has significant revenue in spite of a 10% marketshare. Dell for example has huge volume but makes comparatively paltry revenue. All I'm saying is that MS has neither large volume nor large revenue in the mobile market. Apple has close to the same volume but exponentially more revenue. That's a problem for MS because the mobile division can't sustain itself as easily as Apple's iPhone division.


3) The app store is filled with toy apps, and have no special features which could not easily be copied (just like the iPhone)

Just plain wrong and developers are flocking to the App store because there's gobs of money to be made, toy apps or no. And according to P. Thurott, " Microsoft can talk up 20,000 apps all it wants. Virtually none of them are any good. Plus the disparity of Windows Mobile hardware types means that these things won't work consistently across devices."

4) Doesn't matter too much, because it does not seem to be impeding WM sales. When is cut and paste coming to the iPhone again (or turn by turn navigation?)

It does matter because Palm, SonyEricsson, Nokia, HTC, LG, Samsung, etc. have other options and have no compelling reason to wait on MS.

WinCE failed to meet projections last calendar year, not Apple iPhone. Microsoft's share of the smartphone business has fallen from to 36% from 45% in the past two years, according to Nielsen Mobile.

When the best comment from the Barcelona conference is that 99.5% of the mobile market is trying to copy the iphone and app store, that clearly indicates that the majority are NOT clamoring after Windows Mobile. It's presence is declining while Apple's is increasing. That will continue.

Everybody is trying with their hardware to copy where Apple was 2 years ago. They're also trying to create an app store which Apple already has in place and growing like the iTunes store. But Apple isn't there; they left that spot in the road and are moving forward to advance the state-of-the-art while everyone else scrambles to attend the party Apple already left.

When Snow Leopard rolls out with even more refinement to support the Apple ecosystem, the party will be on the move again and just as everybody else thinks they've arrived with their me-too iphone/app store-alikes, they'll see the spotlights light up down the road and realize they're still behind. That will continue too.

Unless Apple does something unbelievably stupid, and there's no indication they have anyone in management like that, I don't think anyone can catch them legally.

Majority like Toshiba, LG, Samsung, Asus, Acer etcetera?

I don't know which MWC you were keeping an eye on, but the one which is happening in Barcelona has Windows Mobile all over it.