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As long as they count computers sold as terminals for department stores Apple's market share isn't going to go up all that much.

simply sweet

If there is any reason to wait, I think they may be waiting for Tiger. Why advertise Panther now, only to be replaced by Tiger within a short timeframe?

If Macs really took off, could Apple keep up? Recent delays with hot products (Dual 2.5 G5, iPod Mini, etc) shows that maybe they don't have the capacity.

Maybe their strategy is slow, but steady growth - something managable.

Because if you advertise what panther does now and wow them, then show tiger and wow them more, they'll see a company that not only makes claims about the future of it's OS but delivers on them too.

Market share is one of those "figures lie & liars figure" topics.

Firstly, we know that Apple's market share of the newly purchased laptop market is skyrocketing. I hesitate to give the figure, but I do know that on university campuses Apple has better than a 50% share of newly purchased laptops.

Which leads us to the issues of market share determination that tend to skew the figures.

1/ Windows marketshare figures include every box sold to operate as point of sale terminals, video recorders, alarm systems, heavy equipment controllers etc. etc. etc. All these "not being used as a desktop computer" sales are real and can't be discounted - but neither should the Windows community be able to claim that they represent some sort of end-user consumer choice.

2/ Mac users tend to use their computers for much longer periods without replacement. Again, this skews the numbers. How many Windows users purchase a new PC every 2 years and simply throw the old one into the closet?... Answer... Lots.... I've a closet full of old machines from my Windows days.... a new machine every year. I've had my iMac for 2.5 years and it will do nicely for the forseeable future.... 4 or 5 more years.

Yes, I purchased a new Powerbook laptop to have that capability, but the original flat 15 iMac will still be cooking 5 years from now. How many Windows users can say that?

So... bottom line:

1/ Apples market share is not as insignificant as Windows supporters would claim.

2/ Windows is self-destructing on viruses and stability issues. As a public issue, this is increasing exponentially.

3/ Longhorn is a dream within a dream and will reamin so for years. Indications are that Longhorn will not work on old Windows machines - its so RAM and processor hungry.

4/ The next few years will be a time of growth for Apple, but when Longhorn is introduced Windows users will have to decide to a/ Stick with their old equipment and XP, 2000 etc. or b/ Purchase a new computer...... THEN the choice will be Longhorn or OSx with that new computer.

Just watch Apple's market share then!

teh marketplace always migrates to the better products eventually...

moo.

If you stop and think of all the Best Buys, Circuit Citys, CompUSAs, etc. around the country with store shelves filled with multiple-branded PCs at rock-bottom prices; along with the in-your-face TV advertising bombarding consumers with low price computer deals; it's a wonder that Apple stil has a market share.

As long as PCs are sold on the cheap, like toasters, the Macintosh is going to have a hard time gaining market share; even with stepped-up sales on Apple's part.

Consumers are going to have to see the quality of computing difference when using a Mac. Apple is going to have to keep inventing great digital hub applications and appliances to penetrate the home market.

Another thing also is demand can easily outstrip supply with Mac's. Just look at the iPod.

Apple doesn't want to be the dull computer in every department store and office.

Mac's are appliance computers, they look good, they work good and they are reliable as all hell.

Microsoft is a dull boring corporation, just like all other dull boring corporations for dull boring people.

Apple is cool, exciting and fun!

Mac users are happy users, and yes we do get a bit cultish because we want others to be happy too.

It's not like worshiping a fake entity or belonging to Rev Jim Jones or being a Branch Davidian, where our minds are taken over.

Apple, especially under Steve Jobs, has made us satisified with our computing experience.

I have PC users pawing my Mac all the time.

I don't see and Mac users pawing a PC, it's like WTF is this sh*t?

So fuck the buisness world, they are out to fuck us. We slave for them for years like drones and they take our pension funds in a scam.

They outsource our jobs overseas and make us wear these dull expensive clothes that break our wallets every week to keep clean, just for minimum wage.

Screw them, screw Microsoft, you'll never get rich slaving for them, the secret is to take a chance and learn a lot about how different things work, so you can decide in any moment, how to make money flow into your hands.

Of course half of our lives we spend in ignorance anyway, easilly duped and controlled.

Religion, politics, jobs etc. They got you and they fuck you.

I think advertising directly about the benefits of OSX would do it, but I also think from 15 years as an Apple user that there is a sort of a passive-agressive mindset within the company that says: I am superior, therefore you must come to ME and beg to buy my product.

So to advertise in a very direct way to the "great unwashed" is not likely to happen.

What advertising there will be is more of a
"Mac users are cool people, therefore you should buy one in order to be cool." mindset.

My belief is that, if you have to try to be cool,(which is what 99% of pop culture adherents try to be) you can't possibly BE cool.

And so those us us who use Macs as the best practical computer tool get ignored, and I think we are the market that has the most potential for growth. But they just don't advertise to us.

Too bad.

More:

You can't blame people for seeing Macs as " a pretty computer that looks cool on my desk",

and therefore sees them as a toy when that is the way they are advertised, ie based upon their looks rather than how they work.

You get what you ask for whether you like it or not.

With my Powerbook, I connect to several different client networks over Ethernet or Wi-Fi, manage and upgrade network devices, sniff traffic, ssh into Linux and Solaris servers, and both TS and SMB into Windows boxes from the same computer that carries round my music library, my photo collection, invoice records for the last five years, personal and business email correspondence for the same period, my address book (synchronised with my Bluetooth phone) and even my latest video project. It burns CDs/DVDs, connects to LCD projectors for presentations, wakes from sleep in a couple of seconds every time, and never, ever infects anyone with a virus.

When a computer does all of this, and more importantly does it effortlessly, why anyone would want to buy Windows is beyond me. If you want to get anything done on your computer, rather than just play games, the Mac is simply the best tool for the job.

Apple simply need to get that message across to back up what people are reading in their newspapers, and the Mac will be selling nearly two million a quarter.

According to International Data Corp., Apple’s piece of the U.S computer pie slid from 3.5 percent in 2002 to 3.2 percent in 2003. That’s certainly not good news. However, the fact is that the number of Mac users isn’t declining. It’s rising – but it’s not rising enough to gain a bigger slice of the percentage number of computer users. That’s a problem, but not as serious a problem as some reports would have you believe.

Fact is the IT market is growing fast and it is growing fast in the corporate sector. New businesses getting online for the most go cheap PC with Windows pre-installed. Also machine not used as PCs (cash registers, time-scheduler, you name it) count as PC sales. If you compare single sectors you will easily see that Apple presence there is skyrocketing and Apple is selling many more units each quarter, still its global market share floats around 3%. In a fast growing market that means Apple - which does not compete in all sectors - is still capable to grow as fast as the overall market. In laymen terms: Apple is growing quite substantially and its revenues do actually show that: +30% in the Q3 2004. If you do not see that as a growing business you have some issues with your brain.

Squash the+Beatles:

Feeling a little colic in the tummy today?

(I'm just teasing; truth is: I sympathize with your cynicism.)

The home market, where Apple is competing, is relatively a puny slice of the pie. Even if Apple were to get double presence there it would translate into a small decimal percentage for its global market share.

In high educational market Apple registers some 54% increase in sales, and it shows. Just walk around some of those campuses and all you see is iBooks and Powerbooks. Is that +54% increase translating into anything visible in the global market share? Are you kidding?

Concerning Apple lasting longer: Kelli McNeil in a column for OSViews put things into perspective: "Let’s say two people comprise 100 percent of all computer users on the planet. Each of these individuals bought a new computer for themselves at the same time; one a Macintosh and the other a Windows PC. Market share and installed base dynamics would indicate 50/50 percentages. But if after two years time, the Windows user decides to replace his computer, ‘market share’ dynamics will show that Windows occupies 50 percent more of the market than that of Macintosh users… even though there are still only two individuals using a computer.”

In fact, Al Fasoldt, writing for the Syracuse Post-Standard estimates that 8-12 percent of the personal computers used in homes today are Macs. He even thinks that Apple’s own figures for the number of Mac users worldwide (25 million) is low; Fasoldt thinks it’s closer to 35 million once you “add in the number of new users in the last few months.”

And in a Forbes article last June, Arik Hesseldahl estimates that Apple has 10 percent of the world’s computer users, while its sales usually account for about 3-5 percent of the world global personal computer market.

The hardware lasts longer, and since Mac users don’t replace their computers as frequently, that translates to decreased “market share” even though the installed base may grow. And for installed base, who knows how many “dumb” terminals and render-farm machines tally in the final computer
head-count?

But in the long run, all this may be somewhat moot. Perception is everything and if you look around Apple portable are everywhere, much more than before. In the long run Apple will be able to grow faster then the overall PC market - rather than at same rate - and its global market share will increase. How much? Maybe a 1% in a couple years and Macs will be everywhere to see because Apple sells to people, not to corporations. And people will start to wonder: "How comes Apple with a puny 4~5% market shares is all I can see around me?"

But pundits will keep bashing Apple for the insignificant presence in the market share...

Ive just ordered a new 40gb ipod from the Apple Store online and they are saying delivery will be by the 10th November!!

Looks like everyone wants a mac product these days!!

I was also in a John Lewis Store (UK) on friday looking at all the macs and a college kid was looking at the G5 dual PowerMacs and new displays with his parents.

His parents said to him that they "did NOT want him to have a windows pc because windows is insecure and that that they wanted him to buy a mac because it was an investment in his future".

I was stunned by this (having used macs for 12 years) - that windows users now know that macs are so much more secure than windows!

I smiled and as I left the store the college kid ended up buying a G5 dual 2ghz Mac and a new 23" Apple Cinema Display!

Welcome the the world of the Mac - you lucky guy!

It should be clear by now that Apple has more commercial products than Microsoft and PC manufactureres have as conceptualized ideas. In other words, Apple is on the cutting edge while Microsoft and most other PC manufacturers remain on the trailing edge.

People who continue to chose or remain with Windows deserve what they get.

As long as Apple continues to innovate and draw a profit, I will be content, regardless of marketshare.

I myself have 2 macs at home (a 15" Titanium G4 Powerbook and a Dual 800mhz Silver G4 Powermac) with a wireless broadband network, and will be replacing both macs with a 17" G5 Powerbook and a 15" G5 Powerbook when they are released!

I also have a 30gb ipod and my wife has a pink ipod mini.

I probably will also get one of the new 20" Apple Displays too when the G5 laptops are released too!

"It should be clear by now that Apple has more commercial products than Microsoft and PC manufactureres have as conceptualized ideas. In other words, Apple is on the cutting edge while Microsoft and most other PC manufacturers remain on the trailing edge.

People who continue to chose or remain with Windows deserve what they get.

As long as Apple continues to innovate and draw a profit, I will be content, regardless of marketshare."


I totally agree with you MEAT OF THE MOOSE!

As long as Apple remains innovative and they don't become a 'Dell' I will stay with them through good and bad times!

Bloody hell, a dual G5 AND a 23" Apple Cinema Display for college: Some people really are lucky!

But yes, I might be dreaming but it all seems - with the distinguo of course - as for smoke habits. Everyone were smoking, it was cool, not smoking was... unthinkable. Who ever would have thought that a cigarette one day would have been so uncool and smokers looked at as poor bastards with an addiction.

Let enough water under the bridges and Windows users will be the IT smoke addicts of 2010.

Apple user expect more and get more (G5 iMac, Spotlight, 64-bit processing, etc.).

Windows users want more and get less (Internet Explorer, no 64-bit processing, emasculated Longhorn, etc.).

It's not about market share- it's about market. The Macintosh has 15+ million OS X users and about another 10 or so million on OS 9 and previous versions. The majority of these computers are in the hands of people with a very different demographic than the average Windoze PC user. They are more educated, early adopters of technological innovations, buy more software, are less likely to steal software and generally more affluent. If you are a software developer, you ignore this market at the risk of your own profit potential.

I think smokers are sexy.

Don't insult them by comparing them to pears.

Glick7 and Seahawk,

Thanks for your insightful posts; I've been trying to make the same points for years with my Windows die-hard friends who trumpet marketshare numbers as if they really mean something. The numbers are even more meaningless when you consider that many of the single-purpose computers you mentioned (you forgot ATM's by the way) don't run Windows; they run DOS, but they're still counted as PC's.

Many of my Windroid friends seem to take as much bizarre comfort in the marketshare myth as they did the megahertz myth. It's almost as if they feel threatened when I show them the things that I can do on my PowerBook.

Start getting businesses to switch and the home market is not far behind. Guy Kawasaki, where are you?

"Bloody hell, a dual G5 AND a 23" Apple Cinema Display for college: Some people really are lucky!"

Too bloody right! He's damned lucky to have parents who not only expressed such concern for his future, but put their money on the line for it. I'm also impressed that they were so in tune with the whole Mac/PC thing.

ATM's, cash registers, etc. are classified as PC's and this skews the data. Fine, understood, OK.

But who collects the data for at home, education, and business computers (Macs and PC's) used for word procesing, e-mail, internet, and all the other real stuff real people do with their personal computers?

And, where are these data posted?

Viridian,

[It's almost as if they feel threatened when I show them the things that I can do on my PowerBook.]

My wife was chatting with some neighbors in the foyer of our building. Next thing I know, she's invited one of them into our place - he's a die-hard WinDroid.

She invites him to have a look at my computer, she tells me. Okay?

I've got iTunes in the forground when he sits down with me. He asks me what 'programs' I've got running to make Windows look like a Mac!!!

He absolutely CAN'T/WON'T reconcile the fact that a Mac can actually do stuff. I show him some other things, then he throws the old 'games' hairball. This guy is baiting me in my own home.

I mentioned that he must have noticed the GameCube and the GBA SP in the livingroom. He says he didn't. I go along with 'this' for another 30 seconds before I inform him that I've got some work that I've got to finish.

Forgot to mention that I pointed out the logo on the front of my Mac.

As long as Apple remains a frontrunner, as it is today, do not worry about marketshare.
Apple has delivering problems already.
HP helps to sell the iPod.
One day and HP helps to sell Mactintosh running computers, who knows...

Mac Buddy:

Windows supports Internet Explorer (world's worst browser), XP (world's most lame OS, except all the other non-Microsoft supported windows OS's), produces the greatest quantity of ill written Security Patches, has no clear direction for a 64-bit OS, has emasculated and gutted Longhorn, and generates more rumors and excuses than product.

I get the impression that most Windows users are like the poor woman who is beaten routinely, continuously, and mercilessly by her unrepentant boyfriend or unremorseful husband, but won’t leave him or have him arrested because “I can make him change.” or “I know he really, really loves me.” This degree of self-loathing, detachment from reality, and powerlessness is truly pathetic and pitiable.

The question is not should people switch from Windows, but “When?”. I guess when the pain and scars becomes too unbearable. Some folks haven't reach that threshold of misery - yet.

Be content with Apple, that's all that is important.

IMHO, the best advertising campaign (Mac's working on common and daily tasks), that Apple should do, is on CINEMAS, BEFORE THE MOVIE.

Please, let Steve know this idea...

Regards from
Porto
Portugal

PowerBook G4 12" and Macintosh SE/30

My 78 year old Mom, and my Mother in Law are now both Mac Zealots. They listen to their friends bemoan how little they figure out how to do with their computers or the fact that it is infected with another virus and they are just sick of it. They tell them that there is a better way and that they can figure out how to do LOTS with their computers cuz it is so easy and they NEVER have to worry about viruses. Many of their friends have said now that they will buy a Mac next time around but it will take time because of the buying cycle being at least 2 years long especially for older users.

My two little sisters have been inspired by all the things that Mom has started doing since she got her eMac and are both slated to get Macs in the near future. One a G5 iMac and the other a 14 inch ibook with a superdrive. My brother in law (formerly a die hard windozer) has gotten one virus too many and says that the next computer he buys will be a Mac too. A good friend who used to be a Mac User and went to the dark side for a while has come back into the fold and got a flat panel iMac after I told him how much better OS X is than the old classic system. One of the big sells for him was iphoto cuz he is into photography. Another friend was looking to get a computer and was lucky enough to have a 15 inch 500 mHz Tibook given to him by an english student of his so now he has joined the Mac world too (even though he will not count as a computer sale).

Little by little it is happening folks. The switch campaign was a success in that it planted the idea in Windozers heads. The buying cycle is long so it takes a while but the seeds have been sown and it is now up to Apple to advertise the hell out of OS X and the iLife Suite to provide the sunshine needed to bear fruit.

Macs are the best computers in the world and easy and fun to use. Apple is a cool company, profitable, and innovates the pants off everyone else. The time is ripe for market share to grow and I think it is happening even as we speak.

just a reminder to whoever wants to post Long messages:

please, please, please. be careful with your spelling, grammar, punctuation and run-on sentences. it's painful to read.

you're ruining mac users' reputation as a smarter and more educated lot.

To add to the posts above, the trend from desktop to laptop for all computer users is helping Apple no end. It used to be that computer buyers assumed everyone else had Windows, but now you can see just how many Mac users there actually are. So that whole "Don't buy a Mac, no-one else has them" argument that used to drive people to Windows is dead and gone, simply by existing Mac users being more visible.

Apple doesn´t want much more demand, they could not meet it.

Re: Mac Zealot

Mac Buddy:

Windows supports Internet Explorer (world's worst browser), XP (world's most lame OS, except all the other non-Microsoft supported windows OS's), produces the greatest quantity of ill written Security Patches, has no clear direction for a 64-bit OS, has emasculated and gutted Longhorn, and generates more rumors and excuses than product.

I get the impression that most Windows users are like the poor woman who is beaten routinely, continuously, and mercilessly by her unrepentant boyfriend or unremorseful husband, but won’t leave him or have him arrested because “I can make him change.” or “I know he really, really loves me.” This degree of self-loathing, detachment from reality, and powerlessness is truly pathetic and pitiable.

The question is not should people switch from Windows, but “When?”. I guess when the pain and scars becomes too unbearable. Some folks haven't reach that threshold of misery - yet.

Be content with Apple, that's all that is important.


----------

I totally agree - wait till they have lost 5 years of family photos on their windows pc hard drive due to the latest virus - they will then buy a Mac!

Production Manager:

I suppose with such brilliant insight into tech business that you're the lead designer for 64-bit Longhorn with WinFS, too? Would you care to elaborate your statement?

Microsoft cannot meet it's own production predictions for Longhorn, but you seem unconcerned that it has taken Bill Gates 10 years to issue another round of rumors, excuses, and lame XP Service Packs instead.

Apple may rely on third party manufacturers for it's computer components, but what is Gate's excuse for Microsoft not being able to write code? Microsoft is inept, incompentent, obsolete, uninspired, derivative, and bloated to the core. Pathetic.

AAPL will Explode to $100
I really don´t mind about market share

1) Apple doesn´t want much more demand, they could not meet it.

2) Apple doesn't want much more demand, they could not meet it.

That subtle difference in the apostrope, is that a Windows thing? A browser thing? Or a font thing?

Mac Zealot,

'has emasculated and gutted Longhorn'

You are whinning because vaporware has been emasculated and gutted? That is like kicking a dead horse or in this case a dead cow. Say, isn't dead cow called beef?

Where's the beef?

the reason is that for all the amazing leaps in Mac OS X.. no windows user would bother looking at it...

it's kinda like someone who doesn't watch what they eat until their doctor tells them they are going to die at the age of 40 if don't cut out the McDonalds and Smoking Crack.

With all the Windows Hell, PLUS.. the iPod's amazing pervasive ubiquity in the music market, the Windows users, who were never really faithful in the first place.. are now seriously considering a Mac...

and why not?.. they're not that expensive.. and they're able to use tons of software..

even the worst case scenario can be remedied by Virtual PC (not games...)

if apple scores a bunch of converts, excluding hardcore gamers.. their marketshare could easily rise to about 6%... which would actually be a doubling of share..

the Mac ecology would be just dandy at a modest 10% marketshare

Maybe they have. I've been seeing shorter versions of this: http://www.apple.com/imac/video/

as a TV commercial lately. It's great, shows Macs actually doing something etc. They need to show it MORE!

I'd like to see Apple pushing into new markets in other countries. You think you have to wait a long time for new product in America?! - try being in another country ... products come through in dribs and drabs ... Lack of supply is a problem that needs addressing if the numbers are going to change - in saying that, analysts quoting misleading "marketshare" statistics need to be corrected at every opportunity.

I agree marketshare is measured only in terms of computer sales (think about the millions of Cash registers, ATM, video recorders, etc...)

A good way of measuring real marketshare, in terms of numbers of computers ACTUALLY IN USE is to look at your website's statistics. You'd be surprised !

Our website is not related to computers and 15% of our visitors use Mac OS (81.5% use Windows).
Interstingly, 4.2% visitors browse with Safari (85% use IE).

However, I'd be curious to know what's the marketshare per sector (home, business, education, etc...)

Al:

I apologize; Microsoft has announced so many varieties of Longhorn I have lost track which “Longhorn” is promised for release.

The first commercial release of Longhorn will lack so many of the features initially promised 10 years ago I think that, in all fairness, Microsoft should give it a new name. Otherwise, Microsoft may be held guilty of false advertising.

Most of the PCs I see are pieces of junk. The OS looks junky and the quality of construction is not so great.

And after awhile there is the terrible WinRot where just everything on the machines slow down unless you lock them down and keep the desktop frozen. I don't know what Apple do to make their machines look better and last longer (they're solid) but I'm glad they do it.

My Mac just works and that's just fine by me.