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Sat, Jul 04, 2009 - 11:30 PM EDT  —  AAPL: 140.02 (-2.81, -1.97%)  |  NASDAQ: 1796.52 (-49.20, -2.67%)

MarketWatch: BlackBerry-maker Research In Motion looks vulnerable to Apple iPhone 3G
Tuesday, July 29, 2008 - 08:39 AM EDT

BlackBerry-maker Research In Motion's (RIM) "investors seem worried," Therese Poletti reports for MarketWatch. "RIM's high-flying shares have sold off more than 20% since peaking above $148 in mid-June. The stock took a sharp dip on the week that Apple launched its much-more competitive, lower-cost 3G iPhone on July 11."

"Adding more pressure to the stock are reports from the blogosphere about problems with a new touch-screen BlackBerry -- a product that the Waterloo, Ontario-based company has never even officially announced. But the touch-screen BlackBerry is real enough to RIM's shareholders and to Wall Street, where many analysts already have baked the release of the product into the company's outlook. On Monday, a RIM spokeswoman declined to comment on rumors," Poletti reports.

"In short, rumors about a product the company has never even claimed to have are contributing to a sell-off that's wiped out about $14 billion of its market value," Poletti reports. "'RIM's counting on new iPhone look-alikes to stem the tide,' wrote Charlie Wolf, a Needham & Co. analyst who downgraded RIM to a sell rating two weeks ago. 'While these models should enjoy some success, they have no hope of matching the secret sauce of the iPhone -- the tight integration of hardware and software that creates a unique user experience.'"

Poletti reports, "RIM and Apple appear to be on a collision course. Apple's new 3G iPhone now presents an even greater threat to RIM and its hard-core corporate users... The latest version of the iPhone software has more corporate-friendly functions in a sleeker package.... Apple Chief Executive Steve Jobs has taken pains to single out the BlackBerry directly -- and publicly -- as his main target in the push to expand the user base of the iPhone."

"It is not a coincidence that one sharp drop in Research In Motion's stock came a few days after news that Apple sold 1 million units in the first weekend of 3G iPhone sales," Poletti reports. "The device continues to sell like hotcakes. Stores are still drawing long lines, with many selling out on a daily basis."

More in the full article here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader "Brawndo Drinker" for the heads up.]

MacDailyNews Take: The two guys running RIM, Mike Lazaridis and Jim Balsillie, did a fine job when all they had to compete against was a market mired in mediocrity (at best). They won't fare nearly as well against a leader of Steve Jobs' caliber and a company that's relentlessly out-innovating, remaking, and, frankly, shaming, the entire mobile device industry.

What Apple is doing to the likes of RIM is sad in a way, but it's also exhilarating, as it's necessary for real progress. This is what happens when the paradigm is forcibly shifted by an individual entity. The rest are left frozen, like deer in the headlights. Eventually they scamper away and begin to churn out weak iPhone lookalikes-not-workalikes.

Desperate moves like that are only going to lead the likes of RIM to failure (see: iPod also-rans). The best for which these newly-derivative (thanks to Apple) companies like RIM can hope is to end up with a nonsustaining user base that is firmly entrenched on the left side of the bell curve. Note to RIM et al.: Those who are unable to distinguish between a real iPhone and a pretend one are much more likely to have far less disposable income than those who can.

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Jul 29, 08 - 08:47 am Comment from: MacNScott

What the street does to companies on rumors is stupid. This crap happens to Apple all the time.

Jul 29, 08 - 08:49 am Comment from: Missy Pants

"(RIM's) stock took a sharp dip on the week that Apple launched its much-more competitive, lower-cost 3G iPhone"

Gee, when was the last time an Apple product was described that way?

Beleaguered RIM?

Jul 29, 08 - 08:54 am Comment from: Missy Pants

"'RIM's counting on new iPhone look-alikes to stem the tide,' ..."

That's RIM's competitive strategy?!!

Looking more beleaguered by the minute...

Jul 29, 08 - 09:05 am Comment from: Mr. Reeee

Having actually used a Blackberry a bit over the weekend, RIM's one-two punch of ugly hardware and a dreadful interface, SHOULD have them VERY worried.

I certainly wouldn't count RIM out at this point, but unless their mythical iPhone wannabe works somewhat like an iPhone, it's not going to make much difference. Not only has the Blackberry managed to lose it's techie cachet rather quickly, but their marketshare will dwindle as well.

Apple seems to have managed to out-design and out-maneuver the entire phone making industry. Too bad we users are stuck with AT&T;...

Jul 29, 08 - 09:19 am Comment from: boulderfrog

I'm with Missy Pants, if RIM's going to use the zune business plan, they're going to have the same success as the zune.

Jul 29, 08 - 09:25 am Comment from: iWill

"...the Waterloo based company..."
Hello R.I.M.? A Mr. Napoleon calling...

Jul 29, 08 - 09:34 am Comment from: grognard

Reality Check
As cool and compelling as the I phone is, there are many that just need a phone and e-mail -because that's how the boss can get in touch and expect a response pretty much anytime (can you say condition of employment?) Anything else isn't necessary.

Blackberry has meet this need for millions and they are available with many different carriers that offer commercial plans. The firms and organizations are not likely to switch just because you can have Google, Itunes, games and surf the web on your phone.

I think the Iphone is very cool, and I can't wait to see how Apple extrapolates some of the concepts into the Mac line - But I still have no compelling reason to buy an I-phone, as cool as it is. And no, I don't have a Blackberry - Used one for a while, and yes it is cumbersome but it does work......

Jul 29, 08 - 09:39 am Comment from: iWill

@grognard

Spell check - "iPhone"

Jul 29, 08 - 09:40 am Comment from: CTO

grognard,

You really need to have a serious look around the App Store. Even at this early stage, it's obvious that Apple's iPhone can offer so much more than any device that corporations which refuse to equip their employees with iPhones are severely handicapping themselves.

Jul 29, 08 - 09:47 am Comment from: Alec

I think Blackberry will decline, but it will take some time. iPhone is by far the best mobile phone ever made, but it is shackled to the worst cel phone network we have here in Phoenix. Dropped calls are a daily irritant in the 5th largest city in the USA. I really hope the AT&T;exclusive isn't for 5 long years. I hope it's only 2 and next year I can switch to T-Mobile.

Jul 29, 08 - 09:47 am Comment from: the money quote

MDN take "...Note to RIM et al.: Those who are unable to distinguish between a real iPhone and a pretend one are much more likely to have far less disposable income than those who can."

This sums it up nicely, and explains why basically all of the "look alike" manufacturers going to have their asses handed to them - they are all bottom-feeding. There's nothing wrong with catering to the low end of the market, but that's a viable strategy only when your competitors are beating each other up at the high end. With smartphones, there's Apple at the high end, and everybody else slugging it out with each other for the leftovers.

Jul 29, 08 - 09:51 am Comment from: blucaso

You know what else is embarassing for the mobile phone industry is that in a short span they have managed to start introducing competent, more user-friendly phones like the instinct. The fact is, the technology was there and the phone manufacturers and designers were just ignorant of human interface and use needs. Now that they've been shown up by the rookie, they have to play catch-up. Apple is also changing the predatory rate plans, and while they're still too high, they're at least giving you real functionality for the money. Good job, boys.

Jul 29, 08 - 09:58 am Comment from: Zune Tang®

I would expect you smug MAC sheep to call some of the other phones out there 'wannabes' or 'look-alikes' but in your blind devotion to all things Crapple you're missing the point. Many of these phones run Windows Mobile, and soon many phones will run Windows Mobile 7. That's the game changer. Not some dopey toy I-Phone. Two great things to keep in mind are:

1) Consumers will have have a choice. Windows Mobile on a Samsung, or Windows Mobile on an L&G;phone? Consumers benefit when there's choice. Once they see that, they won't want to be locked into Apple's proprietary system.

2) IT Departments will approve Windows Mobile devices. My company is courageously resisting the I-Phone. Thank goodness. They always know what's best.

Your potential. Our passion.™

Jul 29, 08 - 10:11 am Comment from: Synthmeister

RIM will probably keep most of its addicted subscribers and continue to make a nice profit for a while. But growth? Fugetaboutit.
RIM only has about 15 million subscribers after 10 years in the market!

Apple will probably sell 30 to 40 million iPhones next year alone. In one year RIM will look like Palm as far as future growth prospects.

This is the opposite of the computer revolution. In that revolution, IT departments made Microsoft the winner. This time, in the mobile computing revolution, the average consumer will make the decisions, not IT departments.

Jul 29, 08 - 10:25 am Comment from: Crazylegs

This article is myopic. Forget iPhone vs. Bold. Think Kickstart, Javelin vs. Moto, Samsung, LG.

As I've said before, iPhone will help RIM dramatically. Economic principles matter and one of the most important one out there is the elasticity of demand. There is huge elasticity in data pricing. Anyone who buys a mobile knows there is a cost of voice, so that is accepted. A data plan is not a must, yet, but if you can offer a premium service for a small incremental fee, you can really drive sales. Apple has no plans to try to have carriers cut data pricing, RIM works with carriers to offer cheap email plans - because every carrier that has done this has seen a huge uptick in sales. Hence they get a higher avg revenue per customer and make more money by adding a customer who previously would not have purchased the data. Carriers want to sell any device that gets the data upsell. There will be many, many people who will balk at an extra $30-40 per month for the full data plan, BUT will accept an extra $5-10 for, say, a great email service. This is the true reason why RIM will do so well even as the iPhone kills it too. Open your eyes and look at the larger picture...

Jul 29, 08 - 10:53 am Comment from: Gunboat Smith

If you need your e-mail in realtime, Apple is not there yet. IN my own testing, an e-mail sent to my BlackBerry arrives in 15 seconds. An e-mail sent to my iPod Touch can take up to 15 minutes, even after the recent cleanup of MobileMe.

Jul 29, 08 - 12:02 pm Comment from: zaxxon4

@Zune Tang® "Consumers will have have a choice. Windows Mobile on a Samsung, or Windows Mobile on an L&G;phone? Consumers benefit when there's choice. Once they see that, they won't want to be locked into Apple's proprietary system."

I'll admit that choice is nice, but those companies are all making basically the same phone. I've used Windows Mobile for years, and they aren't offering more choice in form factors and features. When I used a Motorola MPX220 I loved the phone, but the massive Cingular 8125 was it's replacement when it failed. Flip phones are an extremely rare Windows Mobile flavor. Almost all of the rest put fragile touchscreen on the outside of an oversized underpowerd peice of crap.

The apps on Windows Mobile look like they belong on Windows 3.0, and are poorly designed. At least iPhone apps look like something made in this decade.

Jul 29, 08 - 12:23 pm Comment from: twilightmoon

Gunboat Smith: "an e-mail sent to my BlackBerry arrives in 15 seconds. An e-mail sent to my iPod Touch can take up to 15 minutes, even after the recent cleanup of MobileMe."

No one will disagree with you that MobileMe is having problems atm. The clumsy launch has been a sore spot and a black eye for Apple, but if you expect RIM to be able to depend on a long term strategy of expecting Apple not to get it's shit together and continue to suck, well that's not a bet I'd want to make.

RIM to stay competitive needs to focus on what the do well, email. They won't be able to catch Apple on overall user interface, software platform (App Store) or web browser, but they can stay ahead on email.

From what I've read they still have a more sophisticated email platform (handling multiple email accounts simultaneously better for example).

My Mom's friend Patty is another example. She planned to get an iPhone and wasn't able to comfortably use the touch screen with long fingernails. She tried one out at the store, then ended up buying a BB.

I agree with Synthmeister, BB is going to continue to sell to their current subscriber base, and even maybe see modest growth. But the iPhone will eat up most of their potential new customers base, and slowly erode their 15 million subscribers over time.

Jul 29, 08 - 12:45 pm Comment from: @Crazylegs

"Apple has no plans to try to have carriers cut data pricing... "

Wrong!

Apple threatened to pull the release of the iPhone in Canada because of Roger's exorbitant data pricing. Roger's blinked, Apple won.

Jul 29, 08 - 01:07 pm Comment from: therepguy

You think

Jul 29, 08 - 01:18 pm Comment from: appaulmac

But I thought the reason Execs were using a Blackberry (push email aside) was because it had a 'real' keyboard. How will a touch-screen, non-keyboard Blackberry meet the need of the Exec then? Might as well get an iPhone in that case.

Jul 29, 08 - 02:43 pm Comment from: marco

i dont think RIM needs to be worried...
Apple is doing an amazing job @ poor QC.
go to Apple.com and look at the discussion board... Im on my 5th unit in 2 weeks!

At this rate, apple will need to make more iPhones for exchanges.

Jul 29, 08 - 03:53 pm Comment from: Reality Check

Everyone has missed the boat on RIM's strengths. Their strength is that they have played to corporate IT. My company won't embrace the iPhone because they think it is a security risk and because it has "toy" capability in that it plays music and can load games. Also they can just purchase the package from RIM and RIM will make it work. For the iPhone IT has to do some work to make their systems able to work with the iPhone, often an unlikely proposition. I know the BB can load games, but it is not a serious platform for games while the iPhone is. Corporate IT sees the RIM platform as business oriented and the iPhone as consumer/entertainment oriented. That is why RIM will continue for a while as very prominent in business, but they will eventually fall if they don't come up with real answers to the internet/application strengths of the iPhone.

Jul 29, 08 - 04:52 pm Comment from: MikeK

If you need your e-mail in realtime, Apple is not there yet. IN my own testing, an e-mail sent to my BlackBerry arrives in 15 seconds. An e-mail sent to my iPod Touch can take up to 15 minutes, even after the recent cleanup of MobileMe.

---------------------

If you use Exchange on the iPhone it is delivered in seconds, just like the Blackberry.

MobileMe is an entirely different service.

Jul 29, 08 - 06:05 pm Comment from: Crazylegs

@ @Crazylegs - yeah, that was because the carrier was trying to charge an arm and a leg - but by no means is this their strategy. you've completely missed the point. that was a one-off.

Jul 30, 08 - 05:20 pm Comment from: MobileAdmin

The majority of people on here are CONSUMERS and yeah for you the iphone is likely the best choice for your needs. I'd be interested what model Blackberry those of you have used and if it's fully intergrated with BES 4.1 or some old 7290 from 4 years ago. The new OS 4.5 against the latest BES 4.1.6 is heads above anything Iphone is doing in the enterprise intergration space. Forget push email, that is 5 years ago. Remote email lookup, calendar free / busy lookup, attachment DOWNLOAD and EDIT (to the device) .. let's not even mention the BES intergration with voice PBX.

Apple can have all the entertainment apps they want .. when companies like Chalk, Pyxis and Bloomberg develop for Iphone I'll think differently but for now it's a bunch of widgets that total to have a handful that I would consider business applications. (and no the Bloomberg widget is not the same as Bloomberg Anywhere that BB offers)

Iphone for now is a cool device that can do email .. just like every other Palm and Windows Mobile device I've used the past 6 years. Yeah it's got a slick MUI and the App store is neat for a CONSUMER but me .. having to support thousands of mobile devices Apple is offering the bare minimum with password and remote wipe. Wow .. where is device management, device encryption, device policy to say lock out the loading of Super Monkey ball etc. it's not there and WON'T be there as Apple doesn't care / has no way to provide that! So the vast majority of the corporate world will say nice but we'll wait and see. Apple needs a server similar to BES or a 3rd party that provides these tools. If not it's going to be a niche and those with pull get one - period. Not to mention the requirement to load Itunes on the user pc .. HR and Information Security groups love that one.

Those thinking RIM is just sitting around are delussional. There are a group of devices coming, across every carrier with various price points that Apple has no response too. Hell they can't even stock 2 models and keep them working.

Don't get fooled by a market analyst who has no clue other then driving profit of a stock.

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