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They will be lucky to get 100,000...

I calculate that within a few years, I will have Zuned over 1 million times.

Let's see...there's an sucker born every minute....sixty times 24....times 30...times 7...

yeah, it could happen.

Bigger screen and can share music. This makes it better than the overhyped ipod.

Does MS even HAVE a million employees? Who else is buying the "dogfooded" Zune?

In other news, Microsoft today announced a deal with Frito-Lay to provide one million in-box prizes for Cracker Jack® between now and the end of May, 2007.

Sorry, frakked up the estimate. By my figures, they'll still be 700,000 short.

"Nothing stops. Nothing... or you will do the hardest time there is."

"How long until they pull the plug on Zune?"

Don't you mean "How long until they flush the Zune?"

It would cost Bill Gates or Fester Ballmer only a quarter of a billion dollars to buy a million of those brown turds. That is a pittance to BG. He could buy them up cheaper at bulk, I bet. Then, he could donate them to third world countries so all the kids could have big bulky MP3 players. Too bad they would not have power to charge them, computers to load them, etc. OK, so maybe he could fertilize corn fields with all of those turds.

Translation for my boy....

"Bigger screen (at less resolution) and can share music (for three days before it's lost). This makes it better than the overhyped ipod (in no way whatsoever).

The halo effect of the Zune smells like a toilet that overflowed.

Don't pass the koolaid:
don't you mean bigger pixels?

Don't pass the Koolaid? More like don't look at the real specs. Yeah, you can share songs...kind of. Borrow my song for 3 days or 3 plays, but only if you can find the other guy in your state that has one. Bigger screen? Yeah, with the same amount of pixels, meaning that your picture will be grainier while viewing. Sorry Senor!

Yeah, the market has been clamoring for years for a larger, lower battery life device for the same price as the iPod.

The iPod clearly suffers from the fact that there is an established music/movie/TV/Audibook/Podcast store that is easy to use and uses a proprietary "currency" based upon the country you live in. What is Apple thinking?

Plus, I don't know about you, but I love the idea of sending a DRMed "ad" to my friends for music. It is so much easier then simply telling them about it or passing an ear bud. Definitely work the WiFi premium in battery life, weight, size, and cost.

Lastly, features such as low quality FM radio are HUGE! Why would you want to carry around your entire music library when you can't even listen to the same songs mixed by some other DJ in lower quality FM?

ignore the previous poster

@ Don't pass the Koolaid.

It's quite obvious that the only person suffering a coolaid addiction is you. It must be one helluva strong brew too.

You don't recognise it yet (you will) but it's time to put Microsoft into a box and six feet under.

mdn - your take on needing "leap year" was a nice touch

Apple is currently selling 1 million iPods every 4-5 days. Zune was released on Nov. 14, so Microsoft thinks it's "actually pretty awesome" to sell 1 million Zunes in around 200 days? Who believes that one?

Take the biased blinders off. Apple offers approximately 11 models of iPod for sale worldwide. Zune has one model and is offered in the US only. Comparing HD iPods sold in the US to Zune sales is far more accurately reflects the impact that the Zune is having.

Strip out international sales. Strip out flash sales. Divide HD sales by two, and you get the market that the Zune currently addresses.

Unlike MDN's childish attempts to dismiss the Zune, something a competent analyst would never do, the market seems to be embracing the Zune.

One million Zune players in 7 months is doing pretty well, considering that it started from zero and is going up against the world's leader and approximately 5 other established manufacturers.

Personally, I have no doubts that Microsoft will sell 1,000,000 Zunes by June. The practice is called Channel Stuffing. Basically, before your deadline, you send out tons and tons of product and claim victory. Of course, next quarter, they all end up coming back but that doesn't get mentioned.

Apple did this a few times in the 1990s in order to inflate it's sales numbers. In some cases, it can be considered illegal by the SEC.

I think they need to adopt an Icon. You know, like the Geico Caveman or the Aflac Duck. Or maybe a celebrity?

Kevin Federline!

So far I've heard sale ranks and such, but does anyone have any solid numbers on how many zunes have been sold so far?

BTW, I'm waiting till I can install Linux on a Zune before I buy one, as an MP3 player tied into MSh*t it's worthless to me (I love iPod) but as a general use gadget it would be fun to play with, expecially with WI-FI (and I bet with Linux there would be no limitations on it, I think all of that is MS's Zune OS).

Best Buy loses $35,000 worth of iPods

http://aapl.bloggingstocks.com/2006/12/06/best-buy-loses-35-000-worth-of-ipods/

Sounds like someone wants to push ZUNE at Besy Buy. Wonder who that could be.

OK, Greg Thurman, now let's add a bit of reality to what you are saying. We can really divide the iPod line into 3 distinct models. Regular iPod (hd based), Nano and Shuffle. The various sizes of iPod, along with the colors, should not really be divided into separate models. So, we should probably really compare the standard iPod w/video to the Zune. Do you have numbers on that?

And in reality, you have crossover sales too. Some folks that are looking at iPods or Zunes don't really want them for video - they want them for music. So in reality, the Zune IS competing against the Nano as well, and even the Shuffle, although to a lesser extent.

As for the market embracing Zune, that is the joke of the day. The sales are dismal. Amazon is a good benchmark for that. Go look over there.

If M$ started subsodising these things they would sell, but they KNOW they would NEVER regain their investment, so ergo it will die faster.

Ohhh, at least Universal will be happy since they get $1 for each Zune that Microsoft sell.....1 million in 8 months, jajajaja what a joke, with that kind of "smart" CEO, Universal gonna start to fall nicely.

Gregg, you can always manipulate the statistics. For example, Zune is #66 on Amazon's Top Sellers list for electronics. But it's the #20 best seller on the MP3 list and #5 in harddrive-based MP3 players.

Don't get me wrong--Apple does the same thing. Remember when Apple had the #1 "harddrive-based MP3 player" but they left themselves out of the whole "el-cheapo flash-based MP3 player" market--until they had an el-cheapo flash-based MP3 player.

That said, I'm not sure where you're getting the "market is embracing the Zune," though. At the moment, Creative has the hottest-selling non-iPod harddrive-based MP3 player, according to Amazon. It's #4 versus Zune's #5. And if you then expand it to include all MP3 players, the distance increases from 1 place to 7 (#13 versus #20). If you increase further to all electronics, you get a feel that Creative, at #21, is seriously outselling Microsoft's Zune.

It feels more like the "non-iPod" market is embracing the Creative Zen Vision:M over the Zune.

Let me guess... they picked June because it rhymes.

@Dont pass the koolaid


Um... ok bigger screen but same resolusion....which means distorted picture...and 'sharing' songs is really only sneak peaking songs before they die and you have to buy them yourself. so i think it is the zune that is overhyped ty for trying though.

The Wallflowers said it best:


Well some flowers they never bloom
But some flowers just bloom dead...

ummm, might want to check the math there on ipod sales...

One million by June is 5000 units a day. That's still pretty impressive if they pulled it off, with actual sales and not smoke and mirrors.

We love to trash the Zune and laugh...

But the current Zune is not the threat. It's future Zunes that might come much closer to cloning the look, feel, package, etc of ipods. Plus, they may heavliy discount them to be the lowest priced units, selling them at losses to grab the market...

It's far too early to relax.

Whenever M$ enters a market you need to be very, very wary. To be otherwise is foolish.

He who laughs first may not be laughing last.

There was a typo. They meant June, 2017....

I expect to receive $10,000,000 by June.

"first you hate them,
then you get used to them,
pretty soon, you come to depend on them."

still, they're bricks...

Anyone have the figures for ipod Gen 1 - 5GB sales in the first 12 months ?

This is M$ moving into an established market and not creating a new market as 1st Gen iPod had to do - but still it would be an interesting comparison.

No doubt somewhere there is a youtube copy of SJ declaring ipod sales

What kind of kool aid do they drink in Redmond?

Internet Explorer debuted with a small market share and is now the "market leader" (bye-bye Netscape).
Windows CE debuted with a small market share and is now a "market leader" (when was the last Palm OS update?). MS has the cash reserve to keep Zune afloat while bumbling through development for a few more years until they find a combination of hardware/software that the public will buy.

Apple's iPod is the better product (by far, IMO) right now but Jobs and company can not rest on their laurels.

How many ipods did apple sell in the first six months that it was offered?

http://www.zunescene.com/forums/index.php?board=36.0

The only way they'll sell that many is if they subsidise them and sell them at $100.

They should market the one advantage the Zune has over the iPod.

"Zune, no one will mug you for it"

Cheers,

Tim.

max asked:
> Anyone have the figures for ipod Gen 1 - 5GB sales in the first 12 months?

According to wikipedia, 376,000.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ipod

Apple didn't cross a million until the iPod's 8th quarter of being out.


ds. =)
Los Angeles, CA

It's taken Microsoft over 20 years since they first saw the Mac OS to get from a command line interface (MS-DOS) to a barely adequate GUI interface (XP Pro SP2). It will be another 5 years before they have a reasonable copy of OS X Tiger.

How can anybody be afraid of the Zune 3.0 that Microsoft will be releasing in 2008? It might just hold it's own with a G4 ipod by then.

By the time Microsoft catches up to the iPod, Apple will be releasing G3 of The Next Great Thing™.

One million suckers and counting!

I have an iPod 30Gb and I listen to FM radio via an attachment that also acts as a controller from Apple.

Plus I don't stop there I also stream my music to a nearby FM radio in my car or better still in my friends car! By Kensington.

To just wirelessly transfer a song over to another player is crazy, whose owner can either only play 3 times or has 3 days to listen to it before its gone. In my friends car or any car for that matter I can play music when we want and for how long we want.

Here is how for FM Radio:

http://store.apple.com/1-800-MY-APPLE/WebObjects/AppleStore.woa/wa/RSLID?mco=1807F4C3&nplm=MA070G/B

Car stereo:

http://store.apple.com/1-800-MY-APPLE/WebObjects/AppleStore.woa/wa/RSLID?mco=AED14632&nplm=TK885LL/A

If Microsoft was capable of producing a worthy iPod competitor, then why are they peddling this warmed-over Toshiba Gigabeat? Some "iPod killer!"

I just got to use a Zune first hand. One of my friends bought one...

All I can say is, stick with an iPod. The UI on the Zune sucks. It took like 5 menus just to play a song, not to mention the multiple clicks up and down through menus (they could have at least put a jog wheel on the things!). Granted on my iPod it may take 4 clicks, but it seems so natural on the iPod. On the Zune it's just... awkward. Bad design, Microsoft... It's not intuitive like the iPod...

I will say that the video looked pretty good but it seems like the refresh time on the iPod is better (higher quality displays?)

Unless Microsoft makes some major changes to their Zune, I highly doubt they will ever become a leader in the market...

I wonder how many of those tech-challenged consumers pondering their choices might stumble across this or many of the other arrogance-laden MDN pages and decide to try a Zune just to spite you.

People are like that and none more so than the MDN crowd.

Pride goeth before the fall and Microsoft has the ability to keep at this for years to come. Xbox is a perfect example and they're still not making money on them.

So maybe some other tactic might help you better accomplish your goal.

They say honey works better than vinegar at attracting bees.

Mike--

Remember that Microsoft *bought* Internet Explorer, they didn't develop it. So it's not exactly fair to say that they started with an install base of zero. All of the people who used Spyglass at the time had to go somewhere. When you can leverage your monopoly and give the product away you're bound to find a lot of takers. Of course, destroying your competition in this manner is considered predatory, and generally the government frowns upon such practices. Microsoft won't be able to do this with the Zune. Sure, they're selling it at a loss. (Remember, originally it was going to be $299, until they were undercut by the 5.5G iPod was priced at $249) But you don't get the same adoption factor when the product has to start from scratch and yet costs the same. If Netscape were free and came pre-installed with every copy of Windows things might have been different. (I'll worry more when Microsoft bundles a Zune with Vista)

Microsoft needs a lesson in humility. They don't need to be in every market, much less dominate every market. Hopefully the iPod and Apple will provide it.

In terms of current sales, yes it would be more realistic to breakout the sales of the various ipods to the marktets they target and compare the right model to the Zune. However, as it stands now all models of the ipod are out selling the Zune. Is it because the Zune really addresses one market, anti-ipod market. Nothing wrong with that if the Zune were overall an equivalent product in quality at this stage. It right now doesn't deliver the goods. In truth I hope they get just good enough to light a fire under Apple that pushes the successive ipods to greater heights. Right now they don't even do that.