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May 15, 08 - 04:53 pm Comment from: Jim - TIV

it never ceases to amaze me what some people will believe

May 15, 08 - 04:56 pm Comment from: macoverdose_dot_com

someone better send MS a memo letting them know that the FUD tactics of yesteryear dont work anymore. People can now smell what MS shovels .. and it aint roses.

May 15, 08 - 04:56 pm Comment from: Mr. Reeee

Ridiculous.
Sounds like the marketing people at MS are spinning some tall tales again. Wait until the full-tilt iPhone SDK and iPhone 2.0 are released into the wild.

How long has Win Mobile been available? It's at version 6 and still sucks. Palm is better and it's pretty bad.

The day Win Mobile has 40% market share is the day everyone carries a Microsoft Big-Ass Table® around in their pocket…

Are you happy to see me? Or is that just a Big-Ass Table?

Excellent. While we are making definitive statements some 4+ years out, please tell us who will be elected president, who will win the Super Bowl, and who will lose the World Series in how many games.

Can you honestly imagine what it must be like to work as a product person in the poisonous culture of the MSFT sales-centric environment?

a slow, agonizing death - every day.

May 15, 08 - 04:57 pm Comment from: JAYGEE

With the iPhone, and Googles Android come out this year, it will be difficult for them to get 40% market share.

May 15, 08 - 04:59 pm Comment from: HMCIV

Re: MDN Take

Nah, they'll just use the same statistics cookbook they're using to prop up Vista sales.

Or they're start shipping Windoes Mobile on half their PCs.

May 15, 08 - 05:00 pm Comment from: Jay-Z

Wow... Microsoft really can't see its own fading relevance...

Any chance we could see a video of Ballmer saying that? Please iCal this, MDN!! Perhaps they added a zero by accident.

May 15, 08 - 05:05 pm Comment from: iamdj

Dumbphones. Where can I get a real nice Dumbphone?

May 15, 08 - 05:06 pm Comment from: Predrag

MDN, your take is extremely optimistic for MS WinMobile. Even completely without Apple, there are Symbian and Palm out there. While iPhone has, in its 10-month existence, carved out one out of every five devices already, majority are still Symbian. Your take implies that MS will be so successful against Symbian that it would overtake it with their wobbly platform.

I would say, you'd need to take out both Apple and Symbian out of the 'smartphone' definition in order for MS to make 40%.

Good luck, Mr. Wu (Eddie, not Shaw). It's just like Mr. Muhammed Saeed al-Sahaf, Iraqi pre-war minister of information, proclaiming that 'There are no American infidels in Baghdad. Never!'; you probably feel and sleep better believing in what you are saying will come true...

Wow, I wish I could be paid bucketfuls of money to make naively optimistic, blatantly inaccurate and rationally unsupportable market share predicitons.

This Eddie Wu sounds like he's been under the tutelage of one Rob Enderle, reality-mangler extraordinaire.

May 15, 08 - 05:14 pm Comment from: DLMeyer

Sorry, I seem to have missed something. Windows is one of several platforms in the Smart-Phone market today ... and has been there for a couple of years. Linux and Apple are both gaining market share there and can be expected to continue to grow for a year, maybe two or three (or four or five). If revs one through six can't get them the traction they need in the weaker market, how will ver seven or eight manage with iPhone 2(+), Google, a new Linux, and who knows WHAT all to compete against?
I don't see it. Even if they position themselves at the bottom, with the 'semi-Smart' phones ... I don't see it.

sorry but how long has windows mobile been around for smart phones? who are they going to take 40% from and with what? the basic formula hasn't changed since version dot and now their going to start developing again?

40% is a joke

Microsoft is on a different wave length with the belief that Windows Mobile licenses sold account for market share. So anything is possible in their world.

Come on, people - these are marketing and development people! They HAVE to say that or they would be out of jobs.

With the "global smartphone market" defined as being all phones running Windows ME + all phones with a full qwerty keyboard, excluding any phones by manufacturers that don't use Windows ME on any of their handsets [namely RIM and Apple].

May 15, 08 - 05:28 pm Comment from: Tommy Boy

Microsoft will be lucky if Windows Mobile achieves 40% market share amongst Microsoft employees.

Absolutely!
The Zune halo effect alone should provide 40%!

Don't you guys get it? This is clearly a glimpse into Microsoft's corporate strategy!

By the end 0f 2010, the iPhone will have 80% of the smartphone market. Microsoft executes a hostile takeover of Apple and rebrands the iPhone as the iZunePhone-.net-MSN-HotMail-WindowMediaPlayer. Microsoft will resurrect Bob as the graphical UI and give users a choice of a command line interface as well (DOS). Since this will break the touch screen interface, all units will ship with a full size (but ergonomic, of course) Microsoft keyboard. The new device will include three new buttons (CNTRL-Alt-Delete).

These innovations will cause half of the devices to simply stop working. Voila, 40% marketshare!

May 15, 08 - 05:33 pm Comment from: Thorin

Look! Ours has more buttons, you want more buttons don't you? How can you be productive without a ****load of buttons? Oh, and look we'll have Flash too! We are willing to compromise on our standards for the sake of expediency, but no worries. Adobe's release works just fine for us!

May 15, 08 - 05:37 pm Comment from: ken1w

Well, of course a Microsoft exec will say that...

It's the same people who actually thought Zune had a chance as the "iPod killer."

May 15, 08 - 05:42 pm Comment from: Macromancer

"With the iPhone, and Googles Android come out this year, it will be difficult for them to get 40% market share."

THIS

May 15, 08 - 05:45 pm Comment from: Demon

If you believe MS 40% claim, you certainly think Shrek is real.

in light of that bold statement, i should probably get a head of the curve and get me a Windows Mobile phone . . .

2012 . . . 4 years from now . . . does anyone remember what the smartphone market was like in 2004?? Does anyone believe that the smartphone market will resemble anything like it is today??

May 15, 08 - 05:50 pm Comment from: Demon

Or maybe Ballmer's been passing out Rohypnol laced with Lysergic Acid Diethylamide again.

May 15, 08 - 05:57 pm Comment from: gadfly

It's called chutzpah!

May 15, 08 - 06:04 pm Comment from: HolyMackerel

MS can't even get their browser to shrink or rotate. Sell apps for Zune points? No multi-touch = no chance. Google's Android will be given away, so MS have no chance to make actual money here.

No way....

20% maybe...

If you own stock start giving it way...

May 15, 08 - 06:04 pm Comment from: Olmecmystic

I agree with the observation that in a year or two if you're not on an iPhone or Google's Android, you're gonna be ass-out cell-phone-wise.

We always suspected that M$ was delusional (we KNEW they were megalomaniacal), but now they've opened their mouths and removed all doubt.

Peace.
Olmecmystic

Microsoft will have 40% market share!

I think he was predicting Desktop OS figures not mobile... at least that might be more accurate than claiming 40% of the mobile market.

Unless they re-define "mobile market" as any device that has been tossed by a frustrated user.

May 15, 08 - 06:08 pm Comment from: MrScrith

aren't they at somewhere around 7% now? and have never risen higher then that?

So long as Ballmer is head of Microsoft, this is their creed:

"We don't need good products, we just need good marketing!"

The longer Ballmer stays atop Microsoft, the faster Apple will gain market share.

i think Microsoft is announcing this to be in headlines. this website says that for Microsoft to reach 40% market share, every year it will have to almost double the number of Windows Mobile licenses it sells. http://techztalk.com/techwebsite/node/674

Ballmer looks pretty pleased with himself though, judging from the picture of him

i will own 2 ferraris, and 3 redheads in 2012.
or not.
mark my words.

May 15, 08 - 06:31 pm Comment from: Mr. Peabody

We'll see...

May 15, 08 - 06:39 pm Comment from: LateRegistrant

"Windows Mobile platform products will account for 40% of the global smartphone market" must really mean:

40% of the global market for platforms that are made out of discarded smartphones will be made up of hardware that used to run Windows Mobile.

Well, maybe that's not right either. 40% is way too low.

Since Microsoft's definition of the "smartphone market" consists of only those phones that run Windows Mobile.

By that definition, they just might reach 40% market saturation...

May 15, 08 - 06:47 pm Comment from: shen

"i will own 2 ferraris, and 3 redheads in 2012"

no offense, but i married a redhead, and they own you!

(mind you i am happy being owned by her, but i wanted to make that clear....)

(well some quotes from nokia so there will be some bias)

the world smartphone market is about 73% symbian, which includes s60,uiq,foma,etc. s60 alone with about 50%

then there is windows mobile with 23%.

and the iphone pushing 2% at the time.

imo it is possiple for ms to increase their percentage but would be unlikely with the dominance of symbian and immerging of the andriod and iphone platforms.

May 15, 08 - 06:57 pm Comment from: ericdano

I miss Zune Tang with his clear, concise takes on everything.

the only way is if they decide to make Windows Mobile free, and then buy Vodafone and ATT.

http://phobeo.com/blog/2007/12/17/smartphone-market-evolution/

link of the stats of world smartphone market

"... and they shall rule the Earth, nay, the Universe."
Or better yet;
" ... and they shall rule the multidimentional Universes and lay to waste all alien computing competition for they are M$."
This has the makings of another cheap B-movie.

There must be someone at Microsoft who is paid to bend over 24 hours a day so that when Microsoft needs numbers like 40%, they can just pull them out of this guys butt.

OMG! They are such a BSmachine tm

I think they mean they'll only be able to grab 40% of their current market share.

May 15, 08 - 07:37 pm Comment from: Predrag

Looking at those stats (which are for all of 2007), iPhone took 20% of the market in only six months. With version 1. On EDGE. At the same time, MS WinMobile actually lost (compared to previous year) market share, from somewhere near 40% in the US, to about 20%. Obviously, these are US stats, since iPhone was not available globally until the final weeks of 2007. Even globally, MS's market share stayed negligible in 2007. While MS has been selling its mobile OS throughout the world for about ten years, Apple only came as a player in the end of 2007 (globally). Yet, the 2007 global data shows that for every two smartphone sold with MS WinMobile, one iPhone was sold.

With all these agreements Apple was supposed to have signed over the past few weeks for global distribution of the new iPhone, it should take no more than next six months for iPhone to comfortably eclipse MS market share.

Delusional, Mr. Wu...

Does anyone really think there will be a Smartphone market in 2012. With the 4G networks fully rolled out by then I see a whole new class of device...more Smart then Phone... a device that does everything video, music, data, communications, etc etc....a device that hold your digital world in one neat package..or a "Pod" if you will