“Steve Jobs, founder of Apple Computer, first unveiled the iPod to great fanfare in October 2001. Since then there’s been little doubt that the top-selling MP3 player revolutionized the portable music world, reignited Apple’s business and allowed it to tap into lucrative young markets that other companies can only dream of,” Nicole Ridgway writes for SmartMoney.
Ridgway writes, “But now there’s a fear — one I believe to be greatly exaggerated — that the iPod growth machine is sputtering. In late June, one analyst speculated Apple will delay the release of its next-generation of iPod nanos until the end of 2006, months later than originally hoped. Causing further worry are reports that Microsoft will unveil an “iPod killer” MP3 player just in time for the holiday season.”
“Apple controls 75% of the digital-music-player market, according to market research firm NPD Group. That leaves less than a quarter share to a slew of other competitors that has tried and failed to usurp control from Apple. Among them are such behemoths as Dell and Sony, the latter of which controlled the portable music market for decades with its Walkman and later Discman products before Apple came around. ‘There’s just no competitive landscape right now,’ says Needham & Co. analyst Charles Wolf,” Ridgway writes. “Microsoft’s rumored entrance into the market with an MP3 player that’s believed to include 30 gigabytes of storage capacity and WiFi wireless Internet capabilities could be yet another nonevent…”
“‘Microsoft copies really well,’ says Needham’s Wolf, who owns both Apple’s and Microsoft’s shares,” Ridgway reports. “Wolf believes that while Microsoft could offer a quality player it would have an incredibly hard time keeping up with the innovative pace that Apple has set. In fact, Apple is thought to already be working on a WiFi capable player of its own. ‘Apple isn’t a sitting target. It’s a moving target,’ says Wolf. “‘So I’m not concerned at all about the iPod trajectory.'”
Full article here.
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I wouldn’t even say that Microsoft is a great copier. Microsoft is a mediocre copier, but plays fast and loose and busts skulls to get its way. The government uses Microsoft products because of a deep affinity in tactics and goals.
I agree that Microsoft will probably not even make a dent in the iPods dominance.
iPod growth is going to stall, its the natural product growth cycle. It cant go up at the pace it was growing forever. besides, christmas doesnt happen every month.
Doesnt mean its still not going to be a money maker for Apple for the foreseeable future.
M$ wants to own EVERYTHING. And, they think they can. That is the pride that will cause them great harm as time goes on.
Pretty soon, M$ toothpaste and hair gel. The first few revisions will cause your teeth and hair to fall out, but hey, what can expect, right? Now… for an extra $50 bucks a year, they’ll give you false teeth and a wig!
Microsoft could wield it’s monopoly and make some headway but I thing Microsoft’s iPod loving customers would raise hell if Microsoft was responsible for their iPods no longer working properly.
Microsoft should make a Mac only MP3 player first. That seems to be the only way to world MP3 player domination.
“Sometimes when I feel like killing someone, I do a little trick to calm myself down. I’ll go over to the persons house and ring the doorbell. When the person comes to the door, I’m gone, but you know what I’ve left on the porch? A jack-o-lantern with a knife stuck in the side of its head with a note that says “You.” After that I usually feel a lot better, and no harm done.”
The Zune will fail.
Why?
Because its running Windows (mobile edition)
which will be plagued with virii that downloads itself over the WiFi, then gets into peoples vista computers.
and with this thing, people wont buy it like they bought windows en masse because they can see there is competition that is better. Since theyre buying the hardware its not like Mac OS not being able to run on their generic x86 pcs. People just dont see any alternative in the OS market, without having to buy a new computer, they see linux as too difficult, or think its illegal because its free (honestly!). But everyone has an iPod already and they aren’t gonna pay the same price for something thats open to viruses and has only half the storage space. Also I think iPods are gonna get a bit cheaper just to annoy MS
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“unveiled the iPod to great fanfare”
Not really. It was low key by His Steveness’s standards. And by M$ standards, not even on the radar. Of course M$ big new thing then was the impending release of Longhorn….
Now… for an extra $50 bucks a year, they’ll give you false teeth and a wig!
LOL
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It’s the age-old hellish talent of human torture. Apple has fed you a long time on a diet of luxurious foods, very quickly, each one better than the last. Now, they suddenly stop. You stave.. nay, you CRAVE what has been withheld. YOu beg and plead for more. Apple has you exactly where they want you, on your knees begging. Then as if a miracle has opened the heavens above you, after agonizing months (?!) of waiting, Apple produces an all new generation of iPod and you lust after them, not knowing why.
It’s all elementary “Innate Animal Psychology 101” and you’re all the stupid lemmings dumb enough to fall for it. Geeesh!
Now take many products from many sectors such as computer and software, too, and use the same lame psychology and you get an overgyped event DESIGNED to cause the very frenzy that you have been suckered into. F-ckin’ brainless twits!!! You deserve all you get, the superficial drug fix for your superficial addiction by your superficial drug dealer. You’re all nothin’ but binary stoners trying to hide under the cloak of intellectualism. But, y’all are nothing but mindless and weak drones of the capitalist God of ubersuperficiality.
The strong will see it for what it is and the weak (99.99% of you) will give an empty rationalization to it. Live on in your hollow world; it is your right.
God, I need another planet to live on. This one has been thoroughly infected by stupidity, and it takes all of my strength to merely repel its flood from overtaking me. I am surrounded by its stupidity and heartless callousness. People mindlessly stepping over the starving homeless to stand in line for their new iPod.
Perhaps, I have already died and been dragged into Hell and I do not know it. Humans on Earth, the ones created in your own image, cannot be this soulless and wicked. Can they?
Mac users are so deluded. The iPod killer is the end of Apple computer. This is the only thing that Apple makes money on so when everyone who is sick of a crappy MP3 player that only plays stolen music switches it will be the end.
Analysts already are pushing down the stock price and we can see how well it is doing.
It will be so nice to have an excellent MP3 player with choice — users can go to virtually any music store and purchase music. No one is stuck paying the Steve Jobs tax at iTunes.
I’m still trying to figure out if Mac Realist is being ironic in a Douglas Coupland kind of way, or if he is in fact just a total git. Mac Realist?
I think he’s being ironic. No-one can possibly have their reality that distorted, not even Mac zealots!
As for the Zune, if history is any guide, calling it an iPod killer equates to the kiss of death.
I’m more interested in the next iPod refresh than this so-called iPod killer.
LOL 😀
iPod Killer = kiss of death
iPod Partner = kiss of life
“It will be so nice to have an excellent MP3 player with choice — users can go to virtually any music store and purchase music. No one is stuck paying the Steve Jobs tax at iTunes.”
You mean like an iRiver?
… a Sony Bean?
… a Creative Zen?
… a Virgin Player?
… etc
“so nice to have an excellent MP3 player with choice “
The fallacy is that for Apple to hurt, a single competitor would have to emerge and make a big splash, and take a lot of Apple’s share.
All those other players have roughly a third of the market (HD and flash players combined) today. While I’m sure they’re not pleased with that share, it’s still, when combined, significant.
After all Apple has 2% of the worldwide market for PCs and most people here don’t think they’re dead yet.
If on the back of this, Microsoft and Microsoft compatible players take even 20% of the market from Apple, that would mean a 30% reduction in Apple’s market share.
Over time, other players (Most of which are more fully featured than the iPod) could gain additional traction.
It’s the Sony Walkman scenario all over again. Day one Sony is the only significant manufacturer, then others come out, but everyone still wants a “real” Sony, but slowly that brand preference goes away, and finally Walkmans are $9.95-$19.95 in the Best Buy bargain bin.
There’s no question that over time the likes of Sandisk can take the pricing to that level.
By 20% of the market, I mean 20% more of the market.
GmJm = Mac Realist = dorks with no friends and a crummy life. Go troll somewhere else or do you REALLY have nothing better to do other than play ‘choke the chicken’ and cruise MDN hidden in your bedrooms?