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I stand by my predictions of 10m in '07 and 25m in '08.

Does anyone know if the iPod works with Vista yet? I know it had problems when Vista first came out and I know vista fried iPods, but I haven't seen a fix yet from Apple. Does anyone know if it is fixed yet? (not that I would buy vista, I'm only thinking of friends and family)

I hate to be the barer of bad news, but I don't think Apple can possibly sell what they are suggesting. I think there will be huge demand at first, and it will climb. I think the iPhone will do very well. But do we really think that Apple can sell 10,000,000 iPhones in 2007? That is a huge number. That would be one out of every 6 people on Cingular updating their contract and buying the highest priced phone before they even see one on the street. That seems hard for me to believe. I think demand will more likely mirror the iPod. Slow at first, then take off with awareness.

Dallas, I thought APPL's goals/forcast were to sell 10 Million iPhone's WORLD WIDE in 2008 and about 2 Million in North America (US & Canada) in 2007... Those forcast seem much more reasonable.

"That seems hard for me to believe. I think demand will more likely mirror the iPod. Slow at first, then take off with awareness."

There's a lot of buzz surrounding the iPhone and I suspect there's more "awareness" of the product than you are giving Apple credit for. For one thing, the iPod is already a woldwide phenominon, a success story that iPhone can capitalize upon. Something the iPod did not have going for it at the time it started.

Also, the iPhone is a highly refined product based upon years of manufacturing iPods. Apple has a lot of experience in this field now that they didn't necessarily have before.

I think the sales of this thing will blow the lid off any expectations, and drive Apple's stock through the roof (based on the fact the stock has not factored in heavy demand for the iPhone).

Just my 2c.

We'll see.

I've gotta say, that this is where analysts can properly move the market. There's no public information out there about this issue, so the market could truly be lagging behind -- unlike existing devices where the channels/sales people/suppliers provide real information.

If I were the brokerages, I would go long on Apple, pump up the iPhone hype, and then go short when the first numbers start rolling out and start bagging on those numbers. Even with adequate iPhone sales, the noise from the analysts would make it appear that it was a failure.

Remember, the iPhone not only appears to be the most advanced cell phone ever made, but the most advanced iPod and internet tablet to boot.

I would love to be wrong on this since I own a good bit of Apple stock but the predictions are assuming that other phone manufactures will sit on their hands and let Apple take that 1% it claims it can take.

10 million sold would be great but there are very big and experienced phone makers out there that have been given a 5 month lead.

The market seems to be happy today, up over $2.50, 25mn shares as of noon eastern. If the FUD well has finally run dry we may finally see some good momentum.

@ zerO

I would agree with you, if I thought any of the other handset makers could build anything like an iPhone in 5 months. They can't. I doubt if they could do it in 2 years. The thing is, they're stuck - stuck with their own little crappy OSes, or worse yet, Microsofts dreadful one. Anybody can make a touch-screen phone, but one that runs on a UNIX variant..? With the graphical capabilities that Apple can create? They're not even close.
I saw a commercial for the Product(RED) RAZR last night, and they want like 60 bucks for it. That's how desperate they're getting. Does Moto have a super-sweet phone on deck? I'm sure they *did*, but even they must realize that whatever it is looks like an antique next to the iPhone. Do you think they can drop everything and redesign a phone to answer Apple in the next 5 months? No friggin' way. Not a company that size, with that little design talent.

Wait until people start showing up at the office with their iPhones. The wow factor will make demand go thru the roof!

@ off topic -

Apple has stated that operability with Vista will be completed with the next iTunes release - not "fixed" with a patch. I'm sure it takes a little time to match up iTunes to the slop-bucket of code that is Vista - and make it work on, at least, a majority of the editions, versions, and slapped-together hacks out there.

Also, don't take this wrong, but if you really care about friends and family, you won't let them drive drunk or use Windows.

"Mac sales surge over 100 percent in January, says Pacific Crest Securities"

So much for the naysayers re: the new advertising campaign! (I hear that Justin Long now has his own team of paparazzi now!)

AAPL coming back up from the Tuesday dip. Now at $87+, up $2.50+ from yesterday's close.

kinda silly to hear analyst says in the same sentence that Apple will not sell many Iphones yet it will cannabalize iPods sales - can't have both at the same time now can we??

Sounds like good news to me. Who could ask for anything more than underestimation of your potential success? Better than them overblowing it, predicting that 10 million is too little and therefore they believe it to be 15-20m.

It's silly to talk about iPhone cannibalizing iPod sales no matter what. Cannibalization is a POSITIVE development when the contribution margin of the new product is greater than that of the old product, which is almost definitely the case with iPhone. Plus, the each iPhone will generate a recurring revenue stream, in addition to the iTunes Store revenue stream that follows each iPod.

Silly, I tells ya.

I think the pent up demand for this thing is huge.

My wife so one and said i want it. She's as big an incompetent technophobe as there is.

I've seen other discussions of the thing on generic, no tech related internet messages boards from very non technical types Ii was surprised even knew it was coming, let alone seemed excited about it.

This is all anecdotal of course but I can see why analysts may be underestimating demand where Apple, with almost no advertising to date, knows what's out there.

@ChrissyOne
I agree tha the big companies are not ninble enough to regroup in 5 months, the real worry is the home hacker working in linux and cranking out a beautiful applicaion. I a, running Linux on my iPod and I love it

http://www.ipodlinux.org/index.php/Main_Page

And let's don't forget the 200+ patents Steve said they already have in place for the iPhone! It's going to be VERY difficult for competitors to copy the Apple device without treading on a few (all?) of them.

I wouldn't be surprised if Samsung had a comparable device (the F700 "iPhone killer" doesn't count) on the market by the end of the year.

Fortunately, like that piece of shit Meizu player, the first wave of copycats won't have Multi-touch.

@ zerO

You're right. I think the next big breakthrough in phones won't come until someone else does indeed craft a mobile Linux/*nix OS, or, and this is a long shot, MS makes one that doesn't blow. But still, the interface will be the problem, as it has *always* been the problem for Linux in the mass market. If anything, that will be the factor that keeps Apple in the lead, unless another company can take hold of the UI and refine and standardize it to the point that Apple has. I'm just not seeing this happen any time soon. But you're right, it's possible and exactly what Apple should be on the look out for.

Oh yeah, +$3.50, bichezzzz!!!!
^_^

-c

MW: 'six' (figures? child's play)

Wasn't the Morgan Stanley analyst the one that almost predicted the iPhone, spot-on?