“As everyone knows, Apple Computer has been on quite a tear in recent years. So how come this high-flying stock has lost some altitude? Just a few weeks ago, the much lionized maker of iPods and Macs eclipsed the $72 billion market cap of Dell. That was quite a feat since Dell’s sales dwarf Apple’s by four to one. Well, the giddiness didn’t last long. As of Feb. 8, Apple’s stock had fallen 20% from its Jan. 13 high of $85.59. Did the news that Apple had passed Dell tell investors that the stock was getting ahead of itself? That may be part of it. More likely, investors are bailing out over concerns of slower-than-expected demand for Apple’s new Intel-equipped Macintoshes. Factor in, too, the sense among Macolytes and investors that Steve Jobs’s next big product introduction may be several months away. Even lower-priced iPods, unveiled Feb. 7, failed to lift the stock north of $70,” Robin Ajello writes for BusinessWeek.
Full article here.
Steve Jobs’ leaked email probably didn’t help, either.
Nothing has changed. Apple’s guidance for the upcoming quarter remains as stated and as the second-best in company history. Apple remains strongly positioned for future growth. All that has changed are nebulous reports of “slower-than-expected” demand and other “concerns” – all backed up with no proof. Precisely as things were last July when “concerns” raged that iPod demand had peaked, until the actual earnings were reported which showed that Apple’s iPod shipments rose to a then-record 6.16 million. Do you really think that the “concerned” were “surprised” about that?
It’s a game. If you’re going to play, play it well.
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Related articles:
Analyst: Apple to unveil Intel-based iBooks, ‘real’ video iPod at special event in April – February 09, 2006
RUMOR: True Apple video iPod with 3.5-inch display, touch-screen click wheel coming soon – February 09, 2006
Analyst: Wall Street’s worries of slowing Apple Intel-based Mac demand are ‘absurd’ – February 06, 2006
Apple Mac is #1 in European education market, pushes Dell down into second place – February 03, 2006
BusinessWeek: How can Apple be worth more than Dell? – January 20, 2006
Steve Jobs emails Apple team: Michael Dell not the best prognosticator, Apple worth more than Dell – January 16, 2006
Apple now worth more than Dell – January 13, 2006
MDN: It’s a game. If you’re going to play, play it well.
True. True.
I think it’s called “Churning”.
Bastards.
First?…….A first for me. hehe.
Wait til summer and let’s see how much more Apple will be worth than Dell.
It’s also called the “pump and dump.” Once the stock hit $85, the asshats cashed in and started to poo-poo the stock. Now that it’s back down to $65, they’ll start buying it up again and pumping it back up. And the same cycle will occur again 6-8 months from now and so on…
I think this is to ensure we don’t get too cocky, which I think is what happened.
Same goes for OS X viruses too. MDN (and others) are far too cocky. Just “shurrup” and don’t let on!!
More seriously, it was likely the guidance which caused the drop, and a correction was needed, but $20… sheesh. Google’s not as high either, they’re down around $100 from their recent high too.
This pullback comes as no surprise. You need to learn to play the market Game. Company after company gets hammered when they don”t report inline with their previous guidance. Apple is known for playing it safe. They say they don’t expect to meet the earnings estimates, sales are slower than expectd, etc, etc, yet blow the numbers out of the water almost every time for the most part. Why? If fate takes a sudden turn for the worse, you can’t be sued if you’ve warned. Call it protection.
From a techincal analysis pov, the chart showed AAPL was due for a pullback, with a target of 65.00. I place a limit order for 65 a week ago. Guess what? It was hit today. For those interested in technical analysis software for the mac… look at Trendsoft.com and/or BeeSoft.net
I’ve been trading full time for almost 9 years now. There is no better way to make a living if you can control a traders worst enemies; GREEED, FEAR and HOPE.
As Steve would say, “it’s called a cycle”.
In stocks, the money goes wherever the best returns are. Investors don’t see great returns on Apple at the moment, so the money is going elsewhere. When the Intel transition is complete, and/or Steve pulls another “one more thing” surprise, we’ll see AAPL moving nicely again.
Remember, MS and Dell have no where to go but down. That other 90% of the market is Apple’s to take.
Good news for us who “just know” and have a few bucks to pick up some shares. Damn tax refunds never come at the right time [wating]sigh[/waiting].
I told you to sell
It’s just a normal stock adjustment, I was so sure I even shorted.
Now I can buy that Quad.
Whooo hooo whooo weee
Human behavior is predictable you see.
Sold when AAPL broke $70 on the way down. I’ll buy back in when (if ever) it hits a bottom. Am I crying? No, my basis was $7.50.
I’m waiting for the stock to drop to around $15 bucks. Then I’m spending up big.
Now is a good time to buy Apple stock.
http://musobs.blogspot.com/
Just as well Steve Jobs sold some of his stock before the fall… coincidence?
MDN: “It’s a game. If you’re going to play, play it well.”
Oh wise MDN how do you play the stock market well?
Tell us your tips, your wisdom on playing the stock market game.
How much have you invested in your own money in Apple and what did you buy the stock at?
It´s not a game – it´s serious business where one can lose lots of money.
———
Wise MDN why didn´t you tell us all to short the stock at $85 so we could all make lots of money since it has dropped?
MDN: “Nothing has changed.”
Sure, lots has changed.
Mactel notebooks delayed in delivery.
Apple brings out cheaper iPod (less profit).
People realizing iPod/iTunes model limited to a select group of consumers (dsl connection, own a computer, have credit card),
Adobe not shipping updated software until perhaps 2007,
lawsuits by AT&T and others,
very negative article about Apple, iPod, consumer service in last Sunday NY Times……am I missing anything???
Steve sold? I thought Steve’s shares had not yet vested.
Well, john, you made me look. There are no insider transactions for Steve that I could find. Steve has restricted shares that have not yet vested, so he can’t sell those. He also has a small amount of options that he got in 1997, as a board member that he has never exercised.
In my opinion, Steve never sells shares, so it’d be big news if he had sold. He’s owned Pixar shares since they went public just over 10 years ago, and he’s never sold a single share since then.
All I know is that pre-orders for the MacBook Pro laptop are higher than any other laptop within the UK.
And this is based on reseller figures.
I saw a demo of the machine in use yesterday and all I can say is WOW!
When people see the new MacBook Pro in use sales will go through the roof!
Queezie – you forgot the negative APPLE news about the Imacs and problems with videos and screens.
That would hold back buyers.
http://macdailynews.com/index.php/weblog/comments/8537/
KEn C: “He’s owned Pixar shares since they went public just over 10 years ago, and he’s never sold a single share since then.”
Steve sold every share of Pixar he owned to Disney….
New product announcements “some months away”. What rubbish.
We already had iPod announcements and more products are expected “weeks away”.
easy come, easy go. insider trades:
http://www.google.com/search?oi=stock&q=stocks:AAPL&prev;=/search?q=aapl&hl=en&hs=9BZ&lr=&safe=off&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official
TEVANIAN, AVADIS
Senior Vice President
SCHILLER, PHILIP
Senior Vice President
and more
Some big guns at Apple were dropping lots of shares in the past weeks.
What did they know that MDN, financial advisor, didn´t know?????
As a recient convert to Mac who did not know what he was missing until six months ago I have a different take. Almost everybody uses Windoz. A great many, even perhaps the vast majority, really like their system. After all a modern computer does wonderful things for us. I think the Apple add campaign has insulted most of the comupting world. It says to them “We may have the best chips, but, they way we use them is boring, stupid and destable.” If I am the typical user I say “FU” to that. I am no longer the typical user and I say “Apple, show them how well it all works.”
“Payback?”
Magic Word for today: Paranoia
or should that be iParanoia?