“When we do, eventually, look back—and a decade or so from now, we will—we’ll try to pinpoint the moment when Apple’s Macintosh and OS X began to pick up significant steam,” Lance Ulanoff writes for PC Magazine.
Ulanoff asks, “Was it when OS X first launched, or the arrival of the first all-in-one, flat-panel iMac? Perhaps it was the moment when Apple chose Intel (and maybe Intel chose Apple)? Maybe it was the lackluster launch and sales performance of the Microsoft Windows Vista operating system?”
“I’d say all of these elements share credit (some might say blame). In fact, it’s the confluence of these and other events that make this the perfect time for Apple’s market share to creep up past 10 percent to 15 and then 20 and then, well, beyond,” Ulanoff writes.
“The word of mouth for any Macintosh is remarkably good, and with the negative press that Vista is getting, the shine on Apple only gets better and better. To put it simply, Apple’s Macintosh is becoming the most logical choice for those looking to buy a new computer,” Ulanoff writes. “…The day when Apple owns a much, much bigger slice of the computer-market pie is now within view. Let’s mark our calendars, shall we? I say that by Q1 2012, Apple will own 12 percent of the market. Anyone want to guess where it’ll be by 2025?”
Full article here.
It seems that more and more people gain the ability to read the writing on the wall with each passing day.
It’s enjoyable to see postive Mac articles from the likes of PC Week, PC Magazine, Computerworld, etc. these days. Heck, even John Dvorak wrote some good stuff. Enderle and C|Net are the lone holdouts these days. Having used a Mac since 1984, I’ve seen all of the negative press. The positive press is really something to behold!
> I say that by Q1 2012, Apple will own 12 percent of the market.
I was thinking 10% by 2010, so 12% by 2012 sounds reasonable.
> Anyone want to guess where it’ll be by 2025?
That’s way too far into the future. Apple may have moved on to the next big thing by that time.
Well, looky looky here!!
Maybe the rest are finally starting to get it. I remember the original iMac announcement. That is where you should say it started. Sure, when they announced that they had bought NeXT people sat up, but those sitting up really didn’t start writing until that announcement on May 28???? 1998. And then the introduction later in the summer.
Yeah, I know the machine sucked , whatever, the point being that it got everyone doing what everyone always does, follow Steve.
Remember the colors, with in that year irons were six colors, phones, vacuums…. ect.. ect.. If Apple does it everyone else follows now….. Well, they use to. No one can make a computer, mp3 player, media center, phone (and whatever else those magicians have up their sleeves) that all work off of the same OS.
The only problem that we have here is this. With 5%-6% market share now, the stock price won’t reflect the share gains. Say Apple hits 15% the stock would be roughly $400?? I am not sure that will be the case. Maybe it will, Maybe we will look back and say WOW, splits adjusted this stock is $600.
I am not sure, but I am sure that slowly but surely people are starting to notice that they should short PC venders and MS especially.
First Mac; 6500/225mhz 1997
Current Mac; iMac G5 1.8Ghz
Future Mac; iMac 24″, 2.8Ghz, Terabyte, 2GB RAM
Personally, I’d rather not see the Mac’s market share get too big. The track record for companies that get too big is not very good and almost always leads to complacency. I’d hate to see Apple lose their “maneuverability” and penchant for always being at the forefront innovative technology.
I’m more interested in projected installed base numbers.
And more off-topic, how many people are still using OS 9 or earlier?
I wonder if the iPhone has had an impact yet on web browser stats?
@ken1w
That is almost verbatim of what I was gonna say here!
There’s no telling what could happen in the next 18 years.
What happens when Mr Jobs, forgets to live?
I posted this elsewhere, but the new iMacs use the ATI Radeon 2400 XT or 2600 Pro video cards, both of which have HDMI output. See:
http://ati.amd.com/products/radeonhd2600/radeonhd2600pro/index.html
So where is the HDMI out? Also, with native processing of HD-DVD and Blu-ray, does this mean HD media is on its way soon to the mac?
MW: Sure, I sure wish I had some answers
“Personally, I’d rather not see the Mac’s market share get too big. The track record for companies that get too big is not very good and almost always leads to complacency. I’d hate to see Apple lose their “maneuverability” and penchant for always being at the forefront innovative technology.”
I tend to agree with this, but a larger “awakening” of the masses (and a bigger piece of the pie) would be quite refreshing to watch, no?
The remarkable thing about yesterday’s launch was that it brought Apple a giant step closer towards total and insanely easy integration of a user’s computing and online worlds.
I think even more impressive than the new iMacs is the absolutely nifty new iLife suite. The Internet has, probably for the first time, become a smoothly continuous part of your desktop – and you get to carry it along with you wherever you go and still interact with the same direct simplicity.
The ease of interaction between your Mac (desktop and laptop), your .Mac web presence and your iPhone is simply breathtaking. iLife 08 is probably going to turn out to be as ingenious a software as iTunes turned out to be for managing your audio-visual media.
When the true power of iLife 08 becomes widely apparent, look for online businesses of all types to migrate over to the total Mac platform.
All that Apple needs to do now is to vastly increase the .Mac storage from 10 gigs to maybe 30 or 40 gigs, if possible without additional cost, or at minimal additional cost.
“…. Apple’s Macintosh is becoming the most logical choice for those looking to buy a new computer,” “
———————
What exactly is logical about buying a computer with a display that looks like this..
Glossy was a HUGE MISTAKE.
I have no idea how anyone can defend Apple’s decision to force glossy on us without giving us a matte option. It ruins the whole experience of an otherwise stellar machine.
Just look at this glare.
http://www.engadget.com/gallery/apples-new-imac-and-keyboard-first-hands-on/343533/
Macs are not low-end devices. That said, a large % of consumer and businesses alike hit a financial glass ceiling when looking at Macs.
For Apple to continue in this direction, and gaining key apps. devs onboard (Engineering – Solidworks, Pro, E: Gaming – latest and greatest, etc…), is a big part of this growth abilitiy, and it will come, it will just take time.
The best Apple can become is a 30% market share player. This leaves them in the position where devs. must develop for the platform – it simply cannot be ignored. Yet, it keeps Apple from trying to be all things to all people (low-end solutions, cheap systems, etc…).
Apple has about 10 years to get to this point. Once in that 30% range, it will have to look elsewhere for its long-term growth engine.
At that time, it may be some market that is just emerging – living-room, handheld, some market that is still developing at this point in time.
A more interesting question (IMHO): In 2012, how much of the cell phone market share will Apple hold? In 2025?
And more off-topic, how many people are still using OS 9 or earlier? —No Squirt for You
Any more off-topic and you’d be in outer space. Is there a good reason why anyone should care how many people are still using OS 9? Did you say </i>”earlier”</i>???
“…the shine on Apple only gets better and better. “
I couldn’t agree more.
http://www.engadget.com/gallery/apples-new-imac-and-keyboard-first-hands-on/343535/
realist? (That’s rich!)
The glossy vs matte debate is one you’ve lost, because the consumers PURCHASE MORE GLOSSY SCREENS when given a choice.
Got it? People disagree with your assessment, so quit stamping your feet like a petulant child, and realize that MOST PEOPLE disagree with you.
For what it’s worth, I OWN two 17′ ‘Books.
” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”tongue laugh” style=”border:0;” />
One is matte, the other glossy, and whenever I CHOOSE which laptop to use, I CHOOSE the glossy screen.
I happen to PREFER the GLOSSY screen…
Relax, alansky. It was just a thought. I remember reading that the Petronas Towers use a pair of Mac SEs to control lighting. The number of OS 9 (and earlier) users is probably as statistically significant as the number of Mac using hardcore gamers.
“Glossy was a HUGE MISTAKE.
I have no idea how anyone can defend Apple’s decision to force glossy on us without giving us a matte option. It ruins the whole experience of an otherwise stellar machine.”
The placement of the machine (with respect to lighting sources) will require a little more strategy, but the image quality ROCKS!
@BOB
Actually, you are quite wrong.
From ArsTechnica:
“Lenovo recently ran an online poll asking its customers their personal preference regarding matte vs. glossy, and the results are revealing.”
“An overwhelming 86 percent of respondents preferred the old-school anti-glare matte finish for their laptops, with only 8 percent voting for the glossy reflective finish. Only 5 percent were indifferent. Clearly, non-glossy won by a landslide.
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20061018-8022.html
realist: funny, I am sitting here and looking at the glossy monitor on my Macbook, and it just does not look like what your link shows!
THAT IS BECAUSE IF YOU TAKE A PICTURE FROM AN ANGLE SHOWING A REFLECTION OFF A SHINY OBJECT, THAT IS WHAT YOU WILL GET!
Sort like the old joke: Doc, it hurts when I do that!
The Doc says; Well, don’t do that!!!!
I look at my monitor from the front, which coincidentally happens to be roughly the length of my arms when I type?
Am I weird for doing that?
“…I look at my monitor from the front”
Okay, then look at this pic, FROM THE FRONT.
http://www.engadget.com/gallery/apples-new-imac-and-keyboard-first-hands-on/343535/
Or this one:
http://www.engadget.com/gallery/apples-new-imac-and-keyboard-first-hands-on/343534/
I agree that Apple may scoop up ten percent or so, but I doubt it will get much better than that. The reason is the same reason that BMW will never have high marketshare.
For home computers, I think they will reach 20 percent. However, when you have to compete against a company like Dell that will sell 100s of systems at a time to companies for $300 a seat, Apple can’t compete (and doesn’t want to).
Umm, “realist”… from your own quote:
“An overwhelming 86 percent of respondents preferred the old-school anti-glare matte finish for their LAPTOPS, with only 8 percent voting for the glossy reflective finish. Only 5 percent were indifferent. Clearly, non-glossy won by a landslide.”
Do you plan on lugging you iMac around with you? It isn’t a laptop, so what in the world does your quoted result even mean in regards to the iMac?
I posted this elsewhere, but the new iMacs use the ATI Radeon 2400 XT or 2600 Pro video cards, both of which have HDMI output. See:
http://ati.amd.com/products/radeonhd2600/radeonhd2600pro/index.html
So where is the HDMI out? Also, with native processing of HD-DVD and Blu-ray, does this mean HD media is on its way soon to the mac?
MW: Sure, I sure wish I had some answers
DUDE: read the link you left. It says you get HDMI with the included DVI to HDMI adaptor. Something I do with a MacBook and iMac right now.
Learn to read.
Well, actually, I’m going to defend the forced glossy screens:
(1) Most people prefer them, especially among consumers, and since the iMac is mainly a consumer machine, choosing only glossy would be better than choosing only matte.
(2) I know that you are so furious about this relatively minor detail, but I bet that practically everyone else (no, a few other geeks on MDN aren’t “everyone else”) who might have preferred a matte screen is still going to get an iMac.
(3) Therefore, the cost of creating a matte screen option (and setting up the factories to deal with two different types of screens as options, etc.) is greater than the profit gotten by one or two people like you that hate the glossy with a passion.
I mean, the MacBook is all-glossy, and we all know how well that’s doing.
@Edgy,
No, I don’t plan on lugging my iMac around with me. However, overhead lighting and windows are just as severe.
And if you clicked the link I provided you would see that the article goes on to say:
However, most of us don’t work on our laptops outdoors, but many people do use them in a work situation, where overhead lighting causes massive glare on glossy screens.
If you’ve got a glossy screen in a dark room, you’ll be fine. But I suspect (and you can call me crazy,) that most people will have an iMac in a room with a window and/or overhead lights.