“The launch of Microsoft Corp.’s Windows Vista operating system will have a negative effect on Apple’s share of the personal computer market over the next several months, according to checks performed by research and investment firm PiperJaffray,” Slash Lane reports for AppleInsider.
Lane reports, “In a research note released to clients on Wednesday, Sr. Analyst Gene Munster said that while a survey of 50 Best Buy retail stores around the country found that Vista sales have not met expectations, PC sales have still risen as a result of the software roll-out. ‘Of the 50 stores we surveyed, 80 percent of Best Buy stores indicated that they have sold less copies of Vista than they had expected,’ the analyst wrote. But at the same time, he said, 72 percent of the stores saw an increase in Windows PC sales since the software launched.”
Lane reports, “Munster, who attributes the surge to pent-up demand for PCs with Vista pre-installed, is forecasting for a spike in Windows PC sales during the March calendar quarter, which ‘could put downward pressure on Mac market share.’ More specifically, the analyst expects Mac market share to decline from 2.5 percent in December to 2.3 percent in March.
Lane reports, “Still, Munster said he remains confident that Apple in 2007 will gain share overall, helped from the industrywide shift toward portables where it currently excels. The analyst also sees potential for Apple to seize the opportunity presented by the launch of Vista to gain mind share with consumers. ‘Although many features of Vista are already available on Apple’s current operating system, 10.4 Tiger, Apple is preparing 10.5 Leopard for a Spring release,” Munster told clients. “With the release of Leopard, Mac market share will benefit from upward pressure from slight pent-up demand.'”
“The analyst said the release of Leopard will also mark a turning point for investors, who will shift their focus back on the Mac chapter of the Apple story. The launch of Tiger in April 2005 added $100m in revenue to the company’s June quarter, he said, with 2 million copies shipping in the first month of availability,” Lane reports. “Since Tiger’s release, which went on to sell 7 million copies in its first year on the market, the Mac OS X installed base has grown 25 percent from 16 million users to about 20 million users, Munster said. Similarly, he expects that 40 percent of Mac users to upgrade to Leopard in the first year of availability.”
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: No surprises here. Obviously, if Vista causes enough more PCs to be sold due to pent-up demand, Mac market share could drop even if Mac units sales rise. As always, what should be most important to developers, investors, reporters, and other interested parties is that Apple Mac OS X’s installed base continues to grow, now 20 million strong, and tends to be more affluent than PC users on average.
On June 3, 2005, Wizzard Software explained why they believe the Macintosh market is important as they prepared the release AT&T Natural Voices for Apple’s Mac OS X:
According to a statement released earlier this year, Apple Computer reported their 2005 first quarterly revenue and net income as the highest in the history of their company, with 74% revenue growth. Apple shipped 1,046,000 Macintosh units during this quarter, representing a 26% increase in CPU units over the year-ago quarter. According to US News and World Report, Macintosh owners buy 30% more software than their Windows counterparts. Further, Macintosh software comprises over 18% of all software sold, according to the Software and Information Industry Association.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Dan” for the heads up.]
Related articles:
Net Applications: Apple’s Mac market share continues rise, hits 6.22% in January 2007 – February 01, 2007
Gartner: Apple’s U.S. Mac shipments up 30.6% year over year – January 18, 2007
Net Applications: Apple’s Mac market share continues rise, now at 5.39%, up 31% year-over-year – December 01, 2006
Apple’s Mac market share surges, up 35-percent year-over-year as growth accelerates – November 01, 2006
Analyst: Apple has ‘real shot at dramatically expanding Macintosh market share’ – October 31, 2006
Analyst: Apple Mac gains market share, the reason why is significant – October 26, 2006
IDC: Apple Mac attained 5.8% of U.S. market share in Q3 06 – October 18, 2006
Gartner: Apple Mac grabbed 6.1% of U.S. market share in Q3 06 – October 18, 2006
Gartner: Apple Mac grabbed 4.6% U.S. market share in Q2 06 – July 19, 2006
IDC: Apple Mac attained 4.8% U.S. market share in Q2 06 – July 19, 2006
We’ll see…. there is probably pent up demand, but from what I’m seeing in the news and hearing from friends, they are staying away from Vista in droves. Most of my pc devoted friends are sticking with XP and waiting for the first service pack release.
There’s pent-up demand, I’ll grant, but pent-up demand for Vista? Not likely.
Seriously, the only way I could care less would be if the entire coterie of Victoria’s Secret models were dancing naked in front of me.
If Apple sells another 1.6 million CPUs this quarter and they take in another (profitable) $2 billion, why does it matter if WinDell sells a lot of soulless, unprofitable beige boxes to the undiscerning.
I agree completely. Lines of Windows users have snarled traffic here for days.
I’m buying a new iMac next week, so I’m doing my part. Who’s with me?
-c
I’m with ya ChrissyOne… just got my refurb core2duo macbook last week. SWEET!
Just switched both my neighbours last night, one bought a 17 inch iMac and the other a Powerbook.
We’ll see how the numbers pan out….but from my personal perspective, I am seeing WAY more people contemplating Mac’s than ever before.
Installed base numbers are interesting. I’m not sure where these numbers come from, but I do know that in 1997, Steve Jobs claimed the Mac install base was 25 million. 10 years on, in the midst of a resurgence, it’s lower?
Calling Zune Tang…
There’s pent-up demand. It doesn’t matter if Vista is a turd. People have been waiting for Vista to come out to replace their PCs. Mind you, after hearing the reviews, some of them may buy XP machines. And quite a few will buy Macs.
But whatever the case, these people will finally buy their new computers, and the vast majority will (sadly) buy PCs. So yes, that could push Mac market share down.
An interesting thing I heard on the Buzz-Out-Loud podcast. Someone was mentioning that the stores like Best Buy were emptying their inventory of computers before the rollout of Vista. Then, with Vista, they refilled their inventory of computers.
From Microsoft’s point of view, a lot of copies of Vista were sold. In reality, it’s just channel filling.
With all the (bad) press that Vista has been having lately, I think there will be (only) a few people that will try it. Most others will wait and see, or switch to the Mac.
“Jobs’ pancreas” — I think the 1997 figure was Macintosh installed base. The 20 million number is OS X installed base. OS X, of course, wasn’t around in 1997.
I’m waiting for Leopard and then I’m getting another iMac. I’m also getting Windows XP installed (shudder), I wonder if this will come out in the figures? It’s only for one or two apps and the gross majority of the time I’ll be using 10.5.
People buying Vista will have the experience to advise everyone to go Apple Mac…
I’m doing my part Chrissy – I recently bought a Macbook then decided it wasn’t enough power so I got a Mac Pro and a 30 inch display this week.
Buying a macbook pro for my wife who is in graduate school. This will be her first computer. She needs her own computer. With her doing school work, I cannot play BF 1942 on my own copmuter! Sure I could have bought something less, but why. just doing my part to help my stock go up
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Also know many folk who are becoming very interested in OSX
When Leopard comes…along with Adobe CS3 suite at about the same time…I think everyone will be shocked by the volume of sales over the summer.
For many of those early adopters, one can expect a certain amount of buyers remorse when those “cheaper than Apple” desktops and notebooks are found to include only the “Home Basic” version of Vista, without the fancy-schmancy eye candy, without the media functionality, without many other so-called “features”. In other words, warmed over XP SP3.
Apple does it simpler. One version of OS X client (single user or family pack), one version of server (10-user or unlimited). Vista is offered in *ten* different versions, not counting the OEM releases.
With Leopard not far off, it’s likely there are those waiting to buy new Macs…the cost of the server version, for example is significant, and if one wants to buy a Mac Pro with it installed, one might end up buying the updated OS in a month or so…so there is for sure a pent up demand for Macs while buyers hold off for Leopard installed. Not only that, but what Tiger user is not going to salivate over Leopard? As the article points out, Mac users tend to have higher incomes than Windows people, so their take-up of the new OS is going to dazzle. As for market share, clearly in the short term people are buying computers with Vista versus trying to fit it on their existing machines; also they can have no assurance in advance that they can in fact do so. Moreover there are no evident advantages other than keeping up with the hype as in Wow.
What we don’t know yet is how Apple is going to sell Leopard into the Vista-centred marketplace. The opportunity for making a big splash is there; it’s a question of whether or not they want to go all out and not pull their punches, which is what their current strategy seems to be. iChatAV anyone? What’s that?
I just set up a 77 year old accountant on the Mac because I told him we didn’t have viruses, and he asked to buy my MacBook. I did and got a new one plus a new Airport. So now for the first time in his life, he can not only surf the internet, he can do it wirelessly. I will be training him remotely using iChatAV.
And I know others who have PCs and won’t connect them to the Internet for reasons of pure fright. Of course Apple can’t advertise that their OS is completely secure, because that could expose them to potential litigation.
I’ve never owned a mac, but have used them for years at work, along with pc’s. I have the money to buy one now (getting a macbook pro), but I’m waiting for leopard and adobe CS3, and I think that this is the growing trend.
Expect to see sales fall until both of these are released, and then expect to see a MASSIVE rise in sales.
Yeah…you wish.
Let them hope it declines.
I’m typing this from a new MacBook Pro I’m configuring for another one of my numerous switcher friends. And of course I put the MDN widget on all the User sides! Around 20 Switchers at this point.
If we all switch our friends, we can give the momentum an extra push!
I just overheard someone here in the office saying he bought a new PC with Vista from Gateway, and it came packaged with a printer or something that doesn’t have Vista compatible drivers!
So he had to downgrade it to XP to get the printer to work.
” Macintosh software comprises over 18% of all software sold”
Now thats a WOW.
“According to US News and World Report, Macintosh owners buy 30% more software than their Windows counterparts.”
Probably because Windoze users are terrified of what will happen if they upset their PC’s delicate constitution by installing another application. No slight burp of indigestion here, but the full disaster — acid reflux, vomit, et al.
MW: terms. Coming to terms with the Windoze nightmare.
Well, it might help if Apple started updating the Mac mini, iMac and Mac Pro! Way to go Steve!
Chrissy, if you’re buying, then I’m with you too! I’ll take a 24″ iMac, please.
Oh… that’s NOT what you meant?
Nevermind
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The Vista launch was always going to swamp anything else in the IT market. Apple will have decided some time ago to sit on their hands until the hubbub died down. And they have a lot on their hands right now with Leopard, iPhone and the release of new iPods which use the new interface technology that they have developed. They are rolling out Apple stores in Europe and Asia for the first time and they are rumoured to be about to launch the video component of iTunes in Europe.
If you look at what Apple have been doing vis-a-vis product releases, they seems to always wait until the market is really hanging out for something new and then they meet the market’s expectations, or perhaps exceed it.
The video iPod is getting long in the tooth, so expect an announcement here soon. It is possible the Mac will get only minor tweaks, with new processors. But of course Leopard is around the corner and Apple may release new Macs at the same time, but they also may decide to give Leopard total focus to ensure maximum coverage.
Apple’s business is growing at a fantastic pace, across every segment in which they compete. Just managing that growth is a headache in itself so they will be in no hurry to over-extend themselves and risk dropping the ball.
Brilliant execution of a strategy is just as important as the development of a brilliant strategy in the first place. Don’t be too impatient with Apple – it is important to maintain a perspective. This is a business. And it must be run like one. So far so good… And at this rate Apple will dominate every market segment in which they play within a few years.
I wish I had some $$ to buy Apple shares…
Okay, now that I got out of that job and bought my new Mac, I can finaly admit the truth publicly…
Vista is trash, and people who buy it deserve it…
The weeks before the Vista launch were immediately after the holiday shopping season. It is expected that PC sales during those week would be among the lowest of a typical year. Then, sales would naturally pick up. I think some “expert” is confusing seasonal demand for “pent-up” demand. Pent-up demand for getting Vista? Really? If anything, I’d expect the real PC-using gurus to be buying the last available PCs with XP installed, to AVOID getting one with Vista. Maybe that’s why sales were up, as resellers cleared out their XP-using inventory at sales prices.
Just because a movie’s a blockbuster dosn’t mean it’s any good. People pay to see it, they walk out disapointed, they don’t get there money back. But hey 100 million people saw it according to the figures so it must be good. Once people realise they can’t do the most basic of tasks (I hear you can’t watch a HD movie, it downgrades quality? WTF is this for real) they’ll switch back to XP. But how long can a Windows user survive with XP. It would be like still using 0S 9.2 today.
Hey guys turned down a job today in PC world.
Still no job though doh. I was fired from last job. At Apple. :K
I had to answer stupid calls from people: You know APP. hated it.
So Yeah guess what: Vista is a threat.
Dell, could move to Linux, I don’t care anymore.
I am applying for a job in User Interface R&D which would be cool but I don’t think I will get it, failed University.
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Hard being a mac user.
PS: any USA Girls want a husband.
PSS: any jobs in USA???
The next thing BMW could do is hire Apple to re-do that infernal iDrive. iDrive MY ASS!
If Apple hits a year-over-year growth rate for the March quarter of roughly 25% – 30%, will Vista sales push PC sales to these growth rates?…
That is the question, and the answer is probably yes – but only for a quarter. After this, sales growth of PC’s will drop into the mid-teens.
Remember, Apple will launch Leopard in the June quarter (very likely), and thus give Mac sales a huge boost, countering any shot in the PC arm from Vista.
By summer ’07, all things will be back to what they were. With Apple continuing to at least double PC sales rates.
Macintosh owners buy 30% more software than their Windows counterparts.
I have to say since I switched to the Mac I’ve bought way more software than I ever did when I was a PC user. I think the reason is that a lot of home PC users are people just surfing the internet and emailing. People on Macs are actually working. And it’s not just running their business, it’s creative work and personal interest work. THAT’S the great thing about Macs, they’re natural extensions that allow you to do things you never thought of before. I’m constantly amazed at what I can do with my Mac and, more importantly, the quality of my output.
STOP PRESS
Ballmer says Vista forecasts too aggressive. Microsoft stock drops 1%.
Ummm… Maybe Mac market share will actually continue to rise. And rise… And rise…