MacDailyNews - Where Mac news comes first

Jan 24, 08 - 02:16 pm Comment from: Lurker_PC

Hmmm...it could be Apple has decided to bring out a newer version of the iPhone sooner.

I haven't yet picked up any more shares of APPL since it's fall the other day. Might be time to add some shares.

Peace.

Jan 24, 08 - 02:18 pm Comment from: Lurker_PC

Hey I haven't done that "First Post" nonsense in a while. Might be time to do that too. Nah. I won't. I'll be good.



Peace.

Jan 24, 08 - 02:21 pm Comment from: JadisOne

Apple just had its conference call and sounded confident that they will meet their stated goal. So why punish the stock over some sketchy media report as opposed to listening to what's coming from the horse's mouth and quarterly reports? Push the stock in the $125-$130 range and I'll definitely be adding more shares. Apples does sell more than just the iPhone, y'know.

Jan 24, 08 - 02:26 pm Comment from: Ampar

That's it. We're doomed. And somehow Karl Rove is to blame.

Jan 24, 08 - 02:29 pm Comment from: Demon

DigiTimes Is about as accurate as a Timex watch stuck to a 198,000,000 gauss magnet.
After all this is hear say from a Chinese publication about a Taiwanese Company.
That's like during the coldwar believing Ukrainian Writer that bases a story on a USSR publication that Ford was cutting production due to poor sells of it's F-150 Pick-up truck.
Are you going to believe Ford or the Story form a Know bad source.

Jan 24, 08 - 02:29 pm Comment from: MacDave

Dam, I just went outside, and you know what, the sky is falling.

Jan 24, 08 - 02:41 pm Comment from: mike_in_helsinki

Apple is susceptible to this kind of rumor now.

The rumor-mongering about being below projections in some of their European markets, plus the fact that they have not announced any new operator agreements when it is almost February, does not help the situation.

My belief is that a fair amount of operators in Europe have cut a deal with Apple, but have chosen to wait for the 3G version. This answers a few issues for them, namely,

1) They do not have to further build out their EDGE networks to accommodate the 2G iPhone, only then not getting their investment back when the 3G iPhone is introduced shortly thereafter and which will not use the EDGE infrastructure.

2) Valid or not, there are a lot of customers who know the 3G version is only a few months away, and may wait for that.

So, lets hope Apple announces either some immediate deals with other operators pronto, or moves up the timetable on the release of the 3G version.

What a joke - I highly doubt they only sell 1MM in the 2Q - they sold 300K in the first two weeks

Hey, I bought my iPhone so I'm doing my part.

Yet another attempt by f$@& stock brokers to scare naive people into selling and lowering AAPLs price.
They do that, sale early at highest price, scare people, price drops, then buy back after lunch.
See what has happened yesterday.
They should be jailed.

Jan 24, 08 - 02:49 pm Comment from: mike_in_helsinki

One other point.

Apple usually does not respond to rumors, which is exactly how it should be in the PR world ... up to a point.

This rumor, if indeed false, not only aggravates the stock situation, but plays against Apple in ongoing negotiations with operators.

It could be their advantage, in this special case, to deny the rumor. Understandable if they remain silent.

But as a shareholder, I hate it.

I agree, Helsinki. The lack of 3G is playing a big part.

I don't know what made Apple think they could take the iPhone around the world as a 2G device. Might work in America but it won't in many other places where 3G infrastructure is actually pretty good.

2.5G I should say.

Phones are fashion items - no matter who makes them.
Cool today, but fashion coolness becomes old news too soon.

------------
The Phone market is high turn over of something new and cool. Apple can´t bring out new fast enough.

I predict another price cut coming in Feb., early March.
Anybody in Europe seen any advertisements on TV for the iPhone lately?

Jan 24, 08 - 02:59 pm Comment from: madgunde

It's also possible that Apple had hoped to launch in another country but has had to postpone it, and so doesn't need as much inventory so soon.

Jan 24, 08 - 03:03 pm Comment from: mtngoatjoe

I think there's two big issues:

1) 3G. When Apple ships an iPhone with 3G, they won't be able to keep them in stock.

2) Limited Carriers. Some people can't use AT&T;, and some people hate them too much. If all carriers could sell them, I think the sales numbers would double.

Apple won't overcome the second issue for a number of years, but I don't think it matters as much as having a 3G iPhone.

Here in the UK they can't give the iPhone away and warehouses are full of the overpriced toys. As most tech stocks climb, including Microsoft's, Apple's goes down like the over-inflated balloon it is. And do you know what that stench is? It's Steve Jobs' stale breath leaking out - the hot air that pumped up the whole fragile thing in the first place through excessive spin and jealous fabrications about Windows for which he's paid a fortune in advertising. Viva Vista!

Jan 24, 08 - 03:15 pm Comment from: Ampar

Karl Rove: "Hey, I bought my iPhone so I'm doing my part."

I'll bet you're loving this too:
http://www.ilovekarlrove.com/

It asks the important question, "Are you a RoveHo, too?"

Jan 24, 08 - 03:19 pm Comment from: Zune Tang®

Apple should consider kicking that Steve Jobs bum out and replace him with Karl Rove—who happens to be my second choice. My first choice is Steve Ballmer but he is already taken.

Your potential. Our passion.™

No shit, it's not worth the money!

Jan 24, 08 - 03:21 pm Comment from: MCCFR

More evidence of the disconnected logic glands of the investor community.

Firstly, Apple hasn't offered any official guidance on iPhone shipments for the coming quarter: in fact – with the obvious exception of retrospective reporting where the iPhone is broken out as an individual product – it is practically impossible to ascertain how many of a given product Apple has shipped in a quarter and that impossibility increases by several orders of magnitude when predicting for future quarters.

Secondly, it could be that Apple has asked manufacturers to cut back production of the current model because it has adequate stock in hand; alternatively, maybe iPhone (G1) is going to superceded by the 3G iPhone (G2) at some time in the coming quarter, maybe at CeBIT (4-9 March).

However, even if one accepts this news at face-value, that's more iPhones than were shipped in the first full quarter of iPhone sales; However, if Apple has 750,000 units in stock (which is wholly possible) and adds those numbers to the 1.2 million, that would mean the quarterly earnings from iPhone will be around $360 mlllion. As a point of reference, it took iPod THREE WHOLE YEARS to deliver that kind of contribution to Apple.

Some people in the investment community really need to cut the amount of caffeine they're consuming by about half. Either that or get a sense of perspective.

This is all very speculative—Apple confirmed they are selling 20K iPhones a DAY in their conference call. Someone thinks they have an inside scoop with a supplier? Give me a break. Could be Apple is lining up a new supplier, new model, who knows besides Apple.

Think about these things and you'll realize the growth of the iPhone won't slow down for a couple more years:

1. SDK
2. Is it just me or is every business software maker is adapting their software for the iPhone? (except MS)
3. New countries coming online in the next year
4. New models & features coming out in the next year which will cover more price points—just like the iPod.

Jan 24, 08 - 03:27 pm Comment from: Buster

I would buy one in a heartbeat if Apple would sell them HERE IN CANADA!!!!

Someone at Rogers mentioned that Apple is in no hurry to deal with them because they cannot produce enough iPhones for the European market so that is why Apple is in no rush to finalize the deal here. Roger's wouldn't be able to get them anyway.

Goes contrary to this article unless the article DOESN"T mention that the lower prediction is because of production problems.

Poop!

Jan 24, 08 - 03:30 pm Comment from: doc

"Apple was going to $130 no matter what results they posted"

Apple should've split stock..... Long time ago!

Its the number at the end that scares peoples!

Slowly but surely.

Happy new year to Steve Jobs!. Health and Joy!

i'm waiting on new hardware -- i went from a 30gb ipod w/video to a 16gb touch -- that was painful enough. 8gb is not acceptable.

Jan 24, 08 - 03:35 pm Comment from: John

I saw this while working out at the gym this morning. While I couldn't hear them speaking, it was pretty ridiculous how much they were drooling over/fetishizing the machine. I actually cracked up at one point!

Jan 24, 08 - 03:36 pm Comment from: John

Aw crap--that last post was supposed to go on the NBC TV article. Don't know how it ended up here!

:(

Latest news in from CBS: "Microsoft is expected to feature healthy results from across the technology giant’s various businesses when it posts second-quarter earnings after Thursday’s closing bell."

First poster Lurker_PC has it right I think. Order fewer of the current model iPhone and clear remaining stock and then introduce the 3G iPhone model or iPhone with larger storage capacity... 16GB would be nice.

Take a 3 week break. Come back, and hopefully you will be funny again. Sorry man, it is getting old.

Jan 24, 08 - 03:43 pm Comment from: MCCFR

Bargain Basement…

Actually, your interpretation is a little off!

The problem is that Apple's iPhone is competing against phone WHICH ARE BEING AWAY and where the manufacturers and opposing networks are desperately throwing money to counter the possibility of people switching handset and network.

That'll work for as long as it takes Apple to introduce a 3G model with 16 or 32GB of storage, proper MMS support, full Bluetooth functionality and – arguably most importantly – an extensible platform via the iPhone/iPT SDK.

As each of these dominoes fall and the iPhone's ease of use is compared to– for example – the Nokia N95 or the Blackberry (with that god-awful scroll-ball), iPhone will deliver another 10-20,000 sales per week.

And then there's the elephant in the room that nobody at Vodafone or Orange want to acknowledge…what happens when Apple introduces the iPhone nano?

Apple spent $250 million developing the iPhone and it's already recovered that cash. This quarter will pay for the marketing costs of the launch programme. After that, it's a profitable program without even acknowledging the deferred income and the network operator commissions.

I am in the UK and I agree with many of the comments.

People I know are waiting for a £199 price point with 16Gb or RAM and 3G.

O2 are also not really pushing the device and are giving away the Nokia N95 free with a better contract.

£35 per month for 200 minutes and 200 texts is terrible!!!!

http://www.thefreemac.com

@MCCFR:
"Apple spent $250 million developing the iPhone and it's already recovered that cash. "

Luv to see your math on that one...

Simon, I followed the link to your page and it doesn't seem to render properly in Internet Explorer - bits of text hidden behind other text. I checked the source code and saw that you had created it in iWeb which is fine if you are aiming at an audience who will all be using Safari, but if you want your site to work in all browsers you might like to consider a WYSIWYG editor like Expressions Web or something similar.

RUMOR: Laura Goldman, is generating all this negative news about AAPL to redeem reputation as a great investment guru.

"I am putting a sell on Apple, the company that created the iPhone," Laura Goldman, investment advisor, LSG Capital, May 21, 2007. AAPL closed at $111.98 that day.

Jan 24, 08 - 04:34 pm Comment from: MCCFR

JLB

IIRC, that was the figure quoted in the recent Wired article. Of course, it may be completely speculative, but - given the concealed complexity and the "secret squirrel" skunkworks way in which the whole thing was done (hardware team not seeing the software and vice-versa) – it sounds credible as a figure for a multi-year project to deliver a high-quality multi-function phone with a completely new human user interface.

without knowing the particulars nor attesting to the accuracy of the numbers....

$250M to develop
4M sold

$62.50 pure profit per iphone.... with margins at 30% and ATT service plan kickbacks...that seems plausible, doesn't it?

So, MCCFR, just hot air you are blowing.
C´mon quit the FUD and making up stuff.

MCCFR: "what happens when Apple introduces the iPhone nano"
You got proof of this product, too?

Jan 24, 08 - 05:17 pm Comment from: dd

Whatever. I'll be buying the next revision, so add me to the future count.

Jan 24, 08 - 05:41 pm Comment from: MCCFR

caddisfly,

Not sure about that line of reasoning, but Apple's R&D;item in the unaudited statements at the end of each financial year are as follows…

2003: $471 million
2004: $489
2005: $534
2006: $712 (bit of a hike)
2007: $782

I'd argue that the steady-state of Apple's OS & hardware development R&D;is probably around $550 million at today's prices, so my interpretation of those figures is that Apple coughed up about $400 million of extra R&D;between 01/10/05 and 30/09/07.

Some of that will be the move to Intel, and some of that will be the development of the ultra-mobile OS X and the iPhone. So it's possibly somewhere between $150M and $250M, depending on which you think is the more complex.

Interestingly, Apple has already blown $246 million on R&D;this year in the quarter just reported which suggests that there is still a whole load of stuff going on at Area 95014.

Jan 24, 08 - 05:57 pm Comment from: MCCFR

JLB,

What is your problem?? Is the figure to high or too low?

Quoting an article which quotes an insider is hardly FUD (although I apologise for getting the figure wrong, it's actually $150 million in the article). Nor is the speculation that there will be a family of iPhones to meet the needs of various market segments.

I also can't prove the existence of the so-called Aurora spy-plane, but something makes those pretty doughnuts on a rope above Southern California as well as all those sonic booms and it certainly isn't an SR-71 Blackbird, but presumably you'd need photos of the pilot standing next to the plane and then some video of it taking off. If I get some time to go to that weird airbase in Scotland where it allegedly refuels, I'll try and help you out.

IMHO European prospective iPhone buyers may be holding off till roaming charges accross Europe have stabilized, such that one doesn't run into unexpected charges when crossing national borders. After all European countries are relatively small.

As soon as this is realized, watch iPhone sales in Europe go through the roof!

Apple lowers iPhone shipment projection for fiscal 2Q08

Over predicted the market, slashed the price, couldn't sell remaining inventory

THUS

no new iPhone announcement at MacWorld.

*cries*

Jan 24, 08 - 07:27 pm Comment from: Mr. Peabody

Perspective perspective perspective... And while I'm thinking in triplets here's something to think about:
There's three places you'll never get a useful perspective: 1. A politician; 2. A preacher; 3. A financial news reporter with an agenda.

On the math thing: If Apple has sold 2 million phones by now (haven't they sold more than that globally by now?), at [rounding] $400 bucks a pop, that comes out to something like $800,000,000. So yeah, if Apple spent $250,000,000 on development, and if they've sold at least 2,000,000 phones then I think they've covered there costs minus advertising, delivery and some other significant expenses.

3G is pointless.

i'd rather have another 2-3 hours extra battery life on my iPhone than 3g. in the future, we'll all be on wifi, i think they should add wireless N instead because of better reception/range otherwise this phone is perfect.

soon in a few years wifi hotspots will grow so big that everyone will be able to just walk anywhere sit-down, and be able to access full broadband internet, not crappy 3g or 4g or whatever comes along.

Simple:

1) The limit of 2 units per buyer has put a crimp in the gray "export" market [prices are up 30-50% in 3rd world countries];

2) As the release date in those markets nears, buyers are adopting a wait and see-the-plan attitude;

3) Expectations of an update with larger storage increasing;

4) A dose of reality: Look! The plen...the plen!

5) Touch.