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Jan 09, 08 - 02:36 pm Comment from: Sanctimonious Blowhard

Still looking for "the mel" to bite

Stop giving away all the surprises!

Very Cool - I can't Wait - Way to go Apple

Jan 09, 08 - 02:50 pm Comment from: Think

If true, and they actually add stuff from the old catalog of film and make it HD, then that will make this take off.
Would just love to rent "The Good, The Bad and The Ugly" in HD and see all the detail. Especially since most of us have only been able to see it on good old TV.
Truely the next best thing to seeing it in the theater.

Jan 09, 08 - 02:51 pm Comment from: ballonknot

I hope it's not 24 hours from time of download. Even the xbox live service let's you hold onto the movie for two weeks, and doesn't start the 24 hour countdown until you start watching it. Would really suck if xbox had a better deal than itunes.

Of course a 'watch as many times as you want to in a week' plan would be more to my liking. Guess we'll see on Tuesday.

"Stop giving away all the surprises!"

Actually, more surprises to come at Macworld

Certainly this will not be the big news at MacWorld... and if it will then, as a european, I won't be happy!

Enough with the software.. Give us some hardware!!

Jan 09, 08 - 02:54 pm Comment from: Zune Tang®

First, there is nothing to substantiate these rumors of studios striking deals with Apple for movie rentals. Second, these are highly questionable sources. Financial Times. Bloomberg. Whatever.

This notion is even more preposterous when you consider that Microsoft already has movie rentals on their Xbox Live platform. End of story. If the rumors are true—and that's a really big if—how does itty bitty 3% market share Apple think they can make this work?

Your potential. Our passion.™

"Stop giving away all the surprises!"

Actually, more surprises to come at Macworld.

Jan 09, 08 - 02:58 pm Comment from: ericdano

I for one will NOT rent if it is that expensive. Netflixs offers unlimited rentals for a month. So, I could easily get 15-20 movies in the amount of money I'd spend for 5 iTunes ones. Plus, I can view them whenever I want. Perhaps not that day, but next week.

They should do what Daniel Eran suggested in his article about iTunes rentals. Steve Jobs would be extremely stupid to have a pricing/time structure as reported.

This is cool and all, and the more customer options the better, but at $3.99, why is this any better than renting on demand from my existing cable box? AppleTV faces the same hurdles as Tivo, trying to convince customers to pay $300+ for something they can get the core features of from thier existing cable box. Yes, both Apple and Tivo offer a superior user experience, but money talks.

ZuneTang is right (perhaps a first) - these are just rumors. We'll have to wait until at least the 15th to see what really going to happen.

But ZuneTang is completely off base with this comment: "If the rumors are true—and that's a really big if—how does itty bitty 3% market share Apple think they can make this work?"

The market share of the Mac is irrelevant. The market share of iTunes is what counts first and foremost since it will be the distribution channel allowing movies to run on iPods, iTouch, iPhones and Apple TV. As you all know. iTunes is available on both the Mac and PCs.

It's a question of ease of use (convenience). People have all sorts of ways of downloading movie content right now. But it's clunky. If Apple can (and I believe the can) deliver on the promise of a pleasant selection, download and presentation process, then digital downloads of movies will become the new model for watching paid for movie content.

24hrs from start of viewing seems to go against Jobs' style. Something along the lines of 72hrs makes more sense, as that is what people are generally used to. However, it's more like Steve to do something a little better, like using the Netflix model but apply it to downloads, so that you can keep one movie, let's say up to a month, until you download the next. And, wouldn't it be great if you could just queue up 7 movies or so, and they don't get billed until you view them, if ever? That way you eliminate the download wait.

I suspect Steve's rental model will be more forward-thinking than anything rumored so far.

Jan 09, 08 - 03:14 pm Comment from: Dialtone

I've had the distinct feeling these last few weeks that these assorted leaks are part of a well-orchestrated campaign by Apple to fill the pre-MacWorld vacuum with just enough tantalizing news to neutralize the usual frenzy of crazy speculation. This way they can keep expectations from getting out of hand while carefully saving the best for last. Same thing for announcing the Quad towers and new X-Serves.

My hunch is also that the big surprises won't be as much new hardware as breathtaking integration, ease-of-use and standards at a time when almost every other phone, tv, computer, pda, audio device and online scheme is becoming more frustrating. I'd set forth some predictions, but that would just fuel the crazy speculation, no?

@ChrisM
This is cool and all, and the more customer options the better, but at $3.99, why is this any better than renting on demand from my existing cable box?

Roughly speaking, 60% of US Households with TV's have CATV, another 25% have Satellite, and the remaining 15-20% have neither, which means there's very roughly 25 million households using OTA (NTSC today, ATSC in 2009).

The average CATV monthly bill is $42.76 (as per ncta.com), which works out to a tad over $500/year. Satellite is about the same, whereas OTA is essentially free (you'll generally need to buy an antenna system every 5-10 years).

What your local CATV operator doesn't want to tell you is that OTA ATSC (HDTV) signal is pretty dang good, if you're within a coverage area (check yours at antennaweb.org).

I can envision going to OTA ATSC for the mainstream (non-premium) channels for free, then use my internet connection for downloading the premium stuff. It all depends on how much of what stuff you want to watch as to what makes the best economic sense, but if one is a fairly infrequent viewer of premium content (1x/week), the time until payback for an ATV box is still under two years.


-hh

Chris M asks a excellent question: "...but at $3.99, why is this any better than renting on demand from my existing cable box?"

Some, but not many will be attracted to watching movies on their iPods and iPhones. But most will want to watch on their big screen TV's.

There are two parts to answering Chris M's question. The second part: "How is Apple going to make the experience superior?" is an unknown and can't be answered until after Apple has announced it's actual plans for distribution.

The first question however is: "Why don't people use the currently available options more?" I have pay per view on my TV now and I never use it. I'm kind of a gadget freak and I'm not afraid to tinker with new things. But for some reason, pay per view does not inspire me to use it on a regular basis and it certainly doesn't inspire "impulse" buying.

Apple has to make movie selection and purchasing "cool". I actually enjoy "flicking" through my contact list in my iPhone. Apple is great at making the doing not just easy - but fun. I'll assume that Apple will succeed at this because they will make movie downloading an experience that people will actually enjoy doing. We'll just have to wait and see.

$3.99 per view is too expensive.

$3.99 for a single 24 hour rental seems to be too expensive....
Netflix charges $23.99 to keep 4 DVD's on your windows only computer for 24 hours. The same thing from Apple (assuming the 'leaked' leaked pricing is real) is only $15.96 - Apple is cheaper!
1 DVD from Netflix can be downloaded to your peecee and stored there for a whopping 5 hours for $4.99
Apple's deal is superior to that too! In fact, You'd have to take the 4 DVD deal from netflix to create a 24 hour window within which to watch all 4 dvd's. ... That does not sound all that appealing!

I'd love to see Apple deliver any number of DVD's "instantly" to my Mac or PeeCee, charge me $3.99 per DVD but let me watch at my leisure either on my computer or my TV (with Apple TV of course) but... no timer starts until I begin to watch and there are separate timers for each movie (of course). Once I watch the movie, start a 3 day timer that will either render it unwatchable or simply delete it.

This of course all assumes that the quality of the video is the same or better than I'd get on plastic DVD and I could begin watching the movie within 5 min of beginning the download on a 1.5 M broadband connection.

KenC said: "And, wouldn't it be great if you could just queue up 7 movies or so, and they don't get billed until you view them, if ever?"

I was thinking the same thing. If you could queue your movies and pay for them as you watched them, that would inspire impulse buying.

But I feel no need to speculate further. People had thousands of ideas on how an iPhone should be implemented and Apple did it very differently than expected. Trying to outguess Apple is a pretty fruitless enterprise. I'll look forward to upcoming announcements and pray that Apple, once again, exceeds my expectations.

So I can rent movies from my cable company (cox). I can get (many of) them in HD. I pay 3.99 to watch them for 24 hours. Why do i need (and so desperately want) an apple TV? I don't understand why the studios would not jump on board right away seeing that they already have the (almost) same deal going now with charter, cox, comcast, and brighthouse.

I'm still hoping that they announce a monthly rental service a la Netflix. Unlimited rentals whenever I want would be great for their movie service.

You can always tell the newbies...
Thanks Zune Tang.
You are loved.

The deal is not compelling.

I can, for the same price, get PPV on my Tivo and keep it indefinitely--no expiration date. I only do that half the time, though, because I can rent a DVD for the same price, for a whole week, and it comes with a gag reel, commentary, and other extras.

Can Apple offer something better than one of these choices? Cheaper than either? Easier or longer term than PPV/DVR? Not likely. If they offer HD and/or the whole DVD experience (with the extra stuff), then they would have something valuable to offer.

Jan 09, 08 - 03:48 pm Comment from: Dialtone

"Mac Has A New Office"

...see what I mean?

Jan 09, 08 - 03:49 pm Comment from: Snapper

This is only for America, the rest of us should just ignore this.

Jan 09, 08 - 03:49 pm Comment from: Dialtone

...a headline every day preceding MacWorld.

Jan 09, 08 - 03:50 pm Comment from: Dialtone

The "Burma Shave" strategy.

$3.99 for 24 hours?!? There are Red Boxes all over with $1/day rentals. With surround sound and extras, if I want them. I sure hope that price is way off, or Apple rentals will fail.

@hh,
I just think the solution you propose is messy. I don't see the average customer dropping cable and going OTA and AppleTV. BTW, I live on Long Island, far away enough from Manhattan to make OTA useless.

I think the AppleTV has alot of potential and does what it does well, but my ultimate endgame solution would be more streamlined. I don't want to have to switch boxes, inputs, etc to get live versus recorded media... I know theres very little chances of this, but the only way I'm going to ditch cable is with an AppleTV that offered IPTV with ala carte channel subscriptions, movie rentals/sales and did this all with instant gratification (i.e. whether its live TV or recorded, it starts instantly just like my cable box already does). Having to wait for a movie/TV show to download will eventually be unacceptable to the average customer.

Maybe even this idea is too limited to the traditional way of consuming video.

Jan 09, 08 - 04:08 pm Comment from: iWill

If these reports of movie rentals are in fact true, I sure would like to know what magic equation Apple came up with to woo the studios.

What ever it was, its got to be quite something to have engaged their participation.

Apple has very bright people who have probably already done the cost analysis/comparison to what's already being offered in order to bring the rumored movie rental inline with what's currently being offered through legitimate similar services (PPV, Netflix, brick and mortar retail). The pricing will also take into consideration current consumer trends in renting movies, most likely based more on B&M;and PPV than Netflix. Even Blockbuster is having a problem competing with Netflix's mail order service. Apple has probably also analyzed the movie rental industry's dvd rental time out, price per day of rental and base the iTunes pricing on these figures.

People will bitch, which they always do, but in the end the pricing will be fair and inline with what consumers are willing and able to pay for current services.

Re:"I hope it's not 24 hours from time of download. Even the xbox live service let's you hold onto the movie for two weeks, and doesn't start the 24 hour countdown until you start watching it. Would really suck if xbox had a better deal than itunes."

The problem with the X hours after you start watching model is - if I download the video, then load it on 3 iPODs, iTunes will not know when I started watching till I re synch.

The other problem is transfer speed, I was trying to shi my kids a 1 min 35 sec 720P trailer for the new Pixar file from the Apple site lat night and it took 15 min to down load on a high speed cable connection (5Mb Sec) so 20 Hrs or so for the hole movie?

Jan 09, 08 - 04:20 pm Comment from: Macmac

This is very good news for Apple and consumers but dose anyone think they will ever invite vivid (adult). Including an Adult entertainment company with parental controls in itunes could slam the doors on any new comers to this new market. Just watching the coverage at CES you know everyone is in this game now even T.V's with built in WiFi.
ChrisM is right Apple TV is not as streamed line as it need's to be switching your audio Video input is not good enough. I want to surf my Apple TV to see if the new Digg nation is out yet while watching my other shows.

I don't think Apple has the balls to talk with an adult entertainment co. They always say this is how VHS won the Bata war. Net Flicks has done well with out it but now they have a box too. I see it as a race to the Adult industry. Right now as I see it Apple has an upper hand but give it two years an who knows.

How do you see it?

Jan 09, 08 - 04:25 pm Comment from: Brau

"announce an update to Apple TV"

There had better be a big update with provisions to view personal video content *without* iTunes or the TV will continue to languish. If they only add video rentals then my response will be the same as it is now ... no sale!

I think $3.99 per rental is a bit high too. However, if this was $3.99/month subscription, where the downloaded files live for 24 hours after download, with unlimited (or even limited) number of downloads, I'd buy into that. I saw a promo for Blockbuster's monthly service on Facebook at the same rate. Coincidence? I think not.

Jan 09, 08 - 04:37 pm Comment from: MacMarc

'It becomes only a matter of minutes before the others come on board too.'

What are these analysts smoking? Any remaining studios are going to take weeks or months to join Apple because of the lawyers. Have you ever had lawyers agree on a contract in minutes?

Pricing is not in the hands of Apple - (yet)

Jan 09, 08 - 04:39 pm Comment from: effwerd

If it's only for 24 hours, it won't be as popular.

And will you fucking retards stop suggesting subscriptions. Why do you idiots want yet another bill. There are only about two to three movies worth watching in any given year. I don't want to spend $48 a year for that. No one should.

at ZT,

I enjoy your eloquent posts but 3 percent market share? This is not limited to Apple Inc. computers. Any computer that has iTunes on it. I think there are a couple more computers out there with iTunes.

Individual download movie rentals are great for those of us who
(1) only occasionally come across a movie that we want to watch,
(2) dislike feeling that we have to watch a minimum amount of entertainment because we have subscribed to it,
(3) don't want to clutter our shelves with rarely watched DVDs,
(4) don't want to clutter our hard drives with huge purchased movie files,
(5) would much rather select and download a movie in the comfort of our own homes than drive (perhaps with the kids) some distance through traffic to shop for a DVD in a brick-and-mortar store.

Jan 09, 08 - 05:41 pm Comment from: MacBill

Yeah, no thanks. I'll stick with Netflix.

Jan 09, 08 - 05:41 pm Comment from: LorD1776

Yeah, what Listmaker said.

Jan 09, 08 - 05:44 pm Comment from: misanthrope

All this iTunes movie rental talk has accomplished at least one thing -- I just signed up for Netflix. Redbox gets my impulse business.

I still haven't downloaded a TV show and these moguls are worried about DRM and think people will pay $3.99 for a 24hr download? I'll let you download movie for $2.99 and you can keep them forever.

Jan 09, 08 - 06:06 pm Comment from: coolfactor

Hey effword,

"Subscription", in this case, doesn't mean you pay a monthly bill. You'll subscribe to individual movies for a given period of time. Just means you pay for it, download it, but then it disappears after you watch it. Get a grip dude.

TOO EXPENSIVE! I might pay $3.99 to get it for, say, 2 weeks, but 24 hours!?!

What a bunch of whiney nitpicking babies.
The rumors don't match up to what you want or feel you are entitled to so you have to rend your clothing and scream to the heavens,"Why have you forsaken me Apple!"

Get a grip, take a valium and wait until Mac World to get the truth.

Jan 09, 08 - 07:11 pm Comment from: R

The first step would be to establish the new business model. The second would be to grow it. The third, change it and add value.

Pay per view on cable sits there like a bump on a log, relatively unknown by most people. Apple and iTMS is used daily by millions of people when they actively what they want. Just like people expected the music store to fail because downloading/paying for music didn't match current patterns of digital music behavior. iTMS changes that because it made it compelling to pay for content. Expect the same with a rental service.

Imagine in several years, once not only the kinks have been worked out, but when Apple is able to leverage the iTMS to provide daily content to users on demand, including network programming. Traditional tv, watch out. If I can dump my cable subscription and watch Lost or what-not whenever I feel like it on demand, I will be one satisfied customer.

Apple has become incrementalist in its approach to paradigm shifts. It used to be that Apple would offer new technology before people were ready for it, so it died on the vine, only to be resurrected by some other company years down the line. Now, Apple has a game plan to usher in a new paradigm on their own terms. Slow steps. Be sure that they have some pretty amazing ideas of what may come.

Next week will likely bring version 1.0 of a rental/on-demand service. In a year or two, it's going to have shaken the industry yet again if Apple gets its way.

Between iTunes and Blue Ray consider HD dead people.

Jan 09, 08 - 07:49 pm Comment from: LorD1776

cheapo,

I don't believe Apple is going to sell porn movies so you can play with your wanker for two weeks. Or maybe you have to watch a movie dozens of times, or reeeeally slow, due to your lack of comprehension skills.

@HH, OTA HD would be great. My bro-in-law and I setup a RadioShack antenna inside his garage and he can pick up a couple dozen HD channels in the Denver area. His neighbors and friends can't believe how great the picture is, but of course, people don't realize OTA HD is not as compressed as the HD channels you get from cable or satellite operators. I live in a rural area and only get PBS HD OTA, so I have to get cable, TW, in my area.

Interestingly, since I have two homes, which I go back and forth at least once a month, it doesn't make sense for me to turn off cable in one location and turn it on, later. I use a Slingbox, and it works great. I get 16 HD channels from TW in Maine, for $30, and use their $50 Turbo broadband service, 10MB/1MB, to sling the service to my other home, where I pay for cheap, slow 1.5MB/500KB DSL for $25. It actually works out great, since I have the same channels in both locations. Of course, I was in Quebec City over the holidays and watched the NBA in HD using my Slingbox. And, when I go to my home in Shanghai, China in April, I'll be able to do it as well.

So, free OTA HD would be great if I could get it, since I have a EyeTV 500 box, but I don't, so my $30 TW HD subscription is pretty darn good for my needs.

Someone brought up a good point. Since the 24hr rental makes no sense, perhaps, Apple released the rumor to set low expectations. When MWSF keynote hits, Steve announces something far better than the 24hr rental model.

As someone said, this helps stifle true wild n crazy rumors, which Apple can't possibly meet, while setting the bar really low so that we all get wowed by Steve's RDF.