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Mon, Mar 22, 2010 - 11:16 AM EDT  —  AAPL: 224.35 (+2.1001, +0.94%)  |  NASDAQ: 2387.46 (+13.05, +0.55%)

Research in Motion shares fall on lower than expected Blackberry sales and subscribers
Thursday, June 18, 2009 - 05:34 PM EDT

"So you gotta wonder whether Research in Motion's lighter than expected Blackberry sales and subscription sign-ups are a sign of sluggishness in the smart phone sector? Or whether this could be a sign that Apple's iPhone is starting to chip away at RIM's success in the marketplace," Jim Goldman reports for CNBC.

"RIM reported a better-than-expected 98 cents a share versus the 94 cents that analysts were expecting. That news came on in-line revenue of $3.42 billion," Goldman reports. "But the problem is that RIM shipped only 7.8 million BlackBerrys during its first quarter against the 8.3 million expected; and the company reported 3.8 million new subscribers versus the 4.2 million anticipated. Both numbers being lighter than expected is a real surprise."

"Guidance is also a little disappointing, and that too is a surprise. RIM now offers a new EPS range of 94 cents to $1.03. Consensus was at 96 cents. Revenue will be light as well, expected now between $3.45 billion and $3.7 billion," Goldman reports. "Wall Street was looking for something closer to $3.6 billion. And new subscriptions are a real disappointment, with the company anticipating 3.8 million to 4.1 million against the 4.2 million analysts projected."

"The more important item for investors to digest, and we'll know part of the answer when Apple and AT&T and market research offer up sales figures for the first weekend of iPhone 3G S sales on Monday, is whether more consumers are migrating to iPhone and away from Blackberry," Goldman reports. "We'll have to wait for unit sales from Apple when the company reports its earnings later in July."

Goldman reports, "If Apple can beat sales expectations for iPhone, amid a unit and subscription disappointments from Research in Motion, the fall-out could be seismic: great for Apple, troubling for RIM."

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Note: RIMM shares are currently off 4.65% in after-hours NASDAQ trading.

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Jun 18, 09 - 05:48 pm Comment from: Gabriel

Well I guess luring U2 away from Apple didn't help RIM.

Jun 18, 09 - 05:50 pm Comment from: ken1w

I guess they are not doing the BUY ONE GET ONE FREE promo anymore, just to boost the numbers.

Jun 18, 09 - 05:54 pm Comment from: Jersey_Trader

"But the problem is that RIM shipped only 7.8 million BlackBerrys during its first quarter ..." and many were in a 2 for 1 deal. HOW MANY ON THE 7.8 MILLION WERE PAID FOR?

Apple could take over the smart phone market if they start shipping buy 1 get 4 free. But, why would Apple give away something that people are lining up in the rain to get!

Jun 18, 09 - 05:56 pm Comment from: occams razor

My eldest daughter signed up for two years on a storm, man that's one clicky turd. (all my other kids on iPhones, the youngest shortly to replace my 1st gen hand down with a 3G hand down)

Jun 18, 09 - 05:59 pm Comment from: Gordon Horne

I don't like using analysts' numbers because they often have market driven agendas, but the original article doesn't include a full set of RIM's estimates. So, analysts expected 8.3 million units shipped and 4.2 million new subscribers which leaves 4.1 million replacement units shipped. RIM reported 7.8 million units shipped with 3.8 million new subscribers leaving 4.0 million replacement units. 3.8 million new subscribers was the lower end of RIM's projections of 3.8 to 4.1 million new subscribers. The problem looks to be more analysts' expectations than RIM's estimates.

Jun 18, 09 - 06:00 pm Comment from: monkeynutsmcgee

The stock has come back to even. Trading 76.30 as I write. MDN, please stay away from stock analysis. You look foolish. The above piece is filled with so many inaccuracies. If the numbers were really off as much as stated above, then this stock would be down 10 points. Yet here it is at just below break even.

why can't this rag just focus on apple and get away from the pissing on everything else parade? what a bunch of pikers who run this site.

Jun 18, 09 - 06:14 pm Comment from: ralph from berlin

the numbers look good to me. 7.8 million devices? not bad in these times. as much as i hope that apple will rule the smartphone market i don't see any weakness for rim. good quarter.

Jun 18, 09 - 06:28 pm Comment from: Jubei

If you take the numbers of the Storm sales vs iPhone, the Storm was a massive flop!!!

Jun 18, 09 - 06:30 pm Comment from: G4Dualie

@monkeynuts (how do we take anyone named monkeynutsmcgee serious?)

There is far more at stake here besides share price. Daily fluctuations don't mean jack-squat. The question is, after the 2-fer sale, what else does RIM have in mind? Another Storm?

Perhaps you should just go away! Save yourself the hate and discontent of visiting an Apple-centric news aggregator site.

Jun 18, 09 - 06:39 pm Comment from: uh oh

Not sure why anyone would want to gloat about RIMM being down in after hours--which they no longer are. If they had had a bad earnings report it would tank the whole Naz tomorrow and take Apple with it.

Jun 18, 09 - 06:46 pm Comment from: R. U. Shoor

Rim Earnings Beat Expectations.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/rim-earnings-beat-expectations/article1187862/

Beleaguered MDN continues the one-sided biased approach.

Give it up. The "reporting" is so amateurish that there's little credibility left.

Jun 18, 09 - 07:08 pm Comment from: G4Dualie

@RU

What do you expect from a biased paper? Toronto is the home of RIM. So naturally they're going to fluff it up a bit.

The question that needs to be answered is, will Canadians pass the Modernization of Investigative Techniques Act.

You know the legislation where your police will be allowed to snoop through your Blackberrys?

So much for privacy, huh Shoor?

Jun 18, 09 - 07:16 pm Comment from: mark

Except for one quarter, RIM had exceeded 12.8% quarter-over-quarter growth in device sales every quarter since 1Q2007. And RIM had exceeded 71% year-over-year growth in device sales every quarter since 3Q07. Until this one.

The expectations were high that RIM would continue its growth despite the recession, especially as it held up well during the previous quarter. But alas, it did not happen. 0% q-o-q and 44% y-o-y.

I think the 5m analyst target for Apple iPhone sales is low, especially as Apple deferred all iPhone sales after mid-March into this quarter (or 1/6th or about 750k), Apple counts shipments to carriers, not sales to customers (like everyone else does), and Apple continued to ship iPhone 3G throughout the quarter (which they didn't do last year). So I think Apple should reach 6m this quarter.

Jun 18, 09 - 07:22 pm Comment from: @G4 dualie

How is anyone supposed to take this site seriously when stories are so far from reality? I guess you got my point on the stupid name. It's one thing to be apple centric - it's an entirely different thing to spew the negative crap about other companies (especially when untrue!)

Jun 18, 09 - 07:31 pm Comment from: Sky

@Gabriel:

"Well I guess luring U2 away from Apple didn't help RIM."

Metaphorically, U2 has left the land of Rock & Roll for the land of Dilbert. The initial payoff must have been substantial, but what's the long-term cost of that decision at a time when mass exposure to one's intended audience is so important?

Jun 18, 09 - 08:01 pm Comment from: @mark

how much did device sales grow from 2 quarters ago to last quarter? (remember last quarter includes the holiday selling season - Dec 1 - Feb 28)

perhaps seasonality factors explain it? oh, wait, that's way too rational for a site like this.

Jun 18, 09 - 08:51 pm Comment from: Reality's Check

A sure sign that RIM is hurting is that Best Buy this week is offering the Blackberry Storm for FREE with a 2 year Verizon commitment. The instant I saw that, I knew RIM was already running scared of the massive iPhone 3G S launch coming up at the end of this week.

Jun 18, 09 - 09:53 pm Comment from: Apple Cider

Maybe CEO Ball-sillie is spending too much time trying to be the next Mark Cuban on bringing the NHL's Phoenix Coyotes to Hamilton, Ontario.

Jun 18, 09 - 09:56 pm Comment from: DIRECT: from rim's last quarter report

"Revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2010 ending May 30, 2009 is expected to be in the range of $3.3-$3.5 billion. Gross margin for Q1 is expected to be approximately 43-44%. Net subscriber account additions in the first quarter are expected to be between 3.7 – 3.9 million. Earnings per share for the first quarter are expected to be in the range of $0.88-$0.97 per share diluted. "

Jun 18, 09 - 10:19 pm Comment from: Another IT Guy...

I still can't believe they released something as horrible as the Storm. It's just terrible. The Bold is great--but I can't figure out why they felt compelled to release the Storm when it's so clear it doesn't work correctly.

Jun 18, 09 - 11:29 pm Comment from: macaholic

RIM is not hq'd in Toronto. It is based in Kitchener, Ontario.
Dickhead rants lose what credibility they have when using erroneous info.

Jun 19, 09 - 12:14 am Comment from: John E

like ken1w noted up top, THEY ARE GIVING BLACKBERRIES AWAY! the buy one get one free promotion is still going, i saw it on TV last night.

how many of those 7.8 million "shipped" blackberries were the freebies, huh? where is that stat??

now RIM does get revenue from the service contract for each free phone they give away, and the telcos maybe get extra revenue if it doesn't replace an older cellphone (but i bet 90+% do). so it's not really "free."

but still, it is a huge de facto price cut for the Storm. which otherwise would be a real flop.

they ain't tellin' like it is.

Jun 19, 09 - 02:19 am Comment from: Predrag

Macaholic:

Isn't Kitchener a suburb of Toronto...? And Isn't RIM headquartered in Waterloo, Ontario (which is a suburb of Kitchener...)?

Don't you hate it when dickhead rants use erroneous info... They lose what credibility they have...

Jun 19, 09 - 06:11 am Comment from: RyanC

I started out with a Blackberry in 2007, instead of an iPhone. All of the people I knew that had them were in a business that fully supported the platform and ran about 150 to 200 devices. I thought that I could use mine like they did, but could not. That would have cost a lot more than I wanted to spend.

It took a year of frustration for me to end my contract early, and get the first gen iPhone in March 08. When the 3g came out in June, I got one of those as well. The iPhone did and does more than I could ever want or need to do. With MobileMe and now 3.0, I am able to do for $99 a year, what a Blackberry would cost a lot more.

Businesses that still use Blackberrys are the ones with so much invested that they can not change or are waiting for their contracts to expire. Consumers or individuals that use Blackberrys or RIM products are either uninformed or live in an area that has poor AT&T;service.

RIM's only hope is to give away their product and hope that AT&T;does not improve their service. Given the opportunity, and shown the difference, the iPhone wins every time.

Jun 19, 09 - 09:55 am Comment from: macaholic

Ooops my bad. Yes it is Waterloo, but since the cities are one big blob, with no discernible space between them, other than a sign here and there....
Locally it is all just thought of as Kitchener.
Kitchener is a more lunchbucket town than Waterloo. Perhaps it was a subconscious dig on my part. I have had occasion to deal with some of RIM's cocky employees in the past (back when stock options were worth something) so pehaps i have an axe to grind

Jun 19, 09 - 11:45 am Comment from: Spock

Hooray! Burn, baby, burn!

Jun 21, 09 - 09:23 am Comment from: iTruth

"HOW MANY ON THE 7.8 MILLION WERE PAID FOR?"

Every last one of them, even the "free" ones "given away" by the carrier.

When will people here understand that the cellphone market is built around offering you a low up front or free price for the phone then making that money back on the 24 month contract you sign?

Quite simply it doesn't matter to RIM what the carrier retails the phone for, they don't care if the carrier gives the phone away. They wouldn't even care if the carrier paid you to take it as long as they get paid their asking price by the carrier.

Jun 21, 09 - 03:26 pm Comment from: ping

iTruth: "HOW MANY ON THE 7.8 MILLION WERE PAID FOR?"

Every last one of them, even the "free" ones "given away" by the carrier.


Not quite.

In a buy-on-get-one-free scheme the "free" phone must get subsidized by someone if the plan it's being used on provides only a subsidy for one of the two. So either the carrier or (more likely) RIM will have to foot the bill for the other.

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