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There is a reason why the word analyst has anal in it.

first post...

Jan 28, 08 - 03:53 pm Comment from: feral

in greek his name is a breakfast egg dish with feta cheese...

That so much time is spent on discussing so much of nothing - like this stupid story. Obsession obsession obsession.

Sounds like someody leaned on him to change his story. The phones are still missing, we just have a new theory for where they might be.

Toni Sacconaghi - Sanford Bernstein

Okay, can you comment on the number of unlocked phones that you believe were sold in the quarter? You had mentioned that on your last call.

Timothy D. Cook

We believe that the number of phones bought with the intention of unlocking was SIGNIFICANT in the quarter but we are unsure how to reliably estimate the number. In the DECEMBER quarter particularly, we saw sales increase across the quarter similar to what you would expect with the holiday gift-buying pattern.

But as we’re new in the business, we’re unsure when all the RECIPIENTS will ACTIVATE. Some people wait until their existing CONTRACTS EXPIRE, some may initially use the non-phone features only, others activate in the future, and so at this point we don’t have a precise estimate for you.

We see this phenomenon as being an expression of very strong interest in iPhone globally and in that way, it’s a good problem to have.

Toni Sacconaghi - Sanford Bernstein

Can you comment qualitatively -- you’ve given the number last quarter -- qualitatively, do you believe the percentage would actually be higher or lower this quarter, or is it too early to tell based on your experience?

Timothy D. Cook

It’s too early to tell. I would just say I think it is significant.

Toni Sacconaghi - Sanford Bernstein

Okay, and then final question; I think you had mentioned initially at the end of the first quarter of iPhone sales that you didn’t want to talk about iPhone channel inventory, that it was still a relatively small and insignificant product. Given that it has over $1 billion in deferred revenue, why are you choosing not to disclose that number?

Peter Oppenheimer

Toni, that’s not the reason we gave. We said that since we only have one channel partner in each of our first four countries, we’re not going to report the inventory but we are going to employ our proven systems and processes to manage the iPhone differently, or effectively.

Toni Sacconaghi - Sanford Bernstein

Thank you.

The answer here is simple. Apple should put its cash to work by purchasing some of the spectrum being auctioned off and build out its own wireless network for cellular and ISP services.

Jan 28, 08 - 04:09 pm Comment from: Ampar

". . . but were siphoned off into the gray market for unlocked iPhones . . ."

That's what happens when people get old. They get bored and resort to smuggling electronics. And they know no TSA agent is going to suggest a cavity search. Those aren't sagging boobs. It's two hundred iPhones.

Jan 28, 08 - 04:19 pm Comment from: The Other Steve

If your looking for missing iPhones, don't forget the one that was "blended."

Whoa. Is this MacDailyNews or MacDailyAxeGrinding?

Whether there are over a million iphones sitting in warehouses or not being used as intended, either way it is a significant problem for Apple. The analyst is right to ask questions and try and get to the bottome of it.

Just for the record, what exactly is the "official" goal, 10 million sold in the year 2008 or 10 million sold all-in-all by the end of 2008?

Jan 28, 08 - 04:31 pm Comment from: Fred Mertz

Alex,

How about if Sacconaghi gets to the bottom of it without yapping about his incorrect theories to the press?

When he has definitive proof, he can offer his analysis.

In the meantime, he should keep his half-baked fantasies to himself.

Jan 28, 08 - 04:37 pm Comment from: Ampar

MacDailyAxeGrinding. Hmmm. Catchy.



And to RonJeremy: 10 million sold all-in-all by the end of 2008.

missing in action: Toni Sacconaghi's credibility...

@ RonJeremy:

Jobs said in his January 2007 Macworld keynote that Apple's goal was to sell 10 million iPhones (1% global market share) by the end of 2008.

I find it rather amusing that these analysts are getting their panties in a bunch over "missing" iPhones, etc. Have they not seen the sales results thus far? Can they not see how the iPhone is already taking a large percentage of all smart phones sold? And that's within the first 9 months of its release! Find me one other phone that did what the iPhone has done – there isn't one.

Fred,

That would be preferable, of course, but we live in an internet age, where we need all our information RIGHT NOW, right or wrong.

Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!

Heh.

MDN, you noted. ""Apple specialist" Sacconaghi will no doubt come up with new theories as to how Apple will not achieve their goal of selling 10 million iPhones in 2008."

YEP, I am already seeing it. MS tools keep commenting that Apple will be unable to meet its target of 10 million iPhones by July 2008.

Yep, its that simple. Lie, cheat, mis-state facts, what ever it takes to make the ANALyst sound bite. After all, its really about web hits now truth or accuracy.

en

Well, maybe Tony Sacconaghi is reely good looking . . . . .

Jan 28, 08 - 05:02 pm Comment from: smackman

@Gman

What makes you think they are NOT doing that?

From the conference call transcript, it seems to imply that Sacconaghi thinks the deferred revenues somehow mean inventories are high, when in fact, it means Apple is recognizing, $394 of each $450 sale over time. The $450 represents the wholesale revenue plus any carrier revenues.

Jan 28, 08 - 05:58 pm Comment from: Ampar

They're always in the last place you look.

> There are no "missing" iPhones: Apple got paid for each and every one.

Not strictly true; they gave a number of them away for promotional purposes.

How ignorant of an analyst could you be? iPhones in a warehouse......What "probable" theory will he throw at us next? Its not to hard to figure out how massive of a hacked iPhone market there is --- especially in countries where it is not officially sold. The "missing" iPhones are not a problem for Apple in any aspect. Yes they do receive a percentage of the revenue from cell phone providers if they are properly activated, however, that was really just another way for Apple to rake in the profit. Take into account that they've sold over 140 million iPods while bringing in record-breaking profit strictly on hardware sales. They're still receiving money from the iPhone hardware sales. If that alone is not enough take a look at the future months for 2008. Apple will be sealing deal after deal with many Asian countries including Japan, India, and China (largest cell phone provider with over 500 million customers).

I believe I called this (that the phones are in the gray market) in comments both to this guy and to Munster (who said it was just normal inventory).

I think I'm really tired of having a real job... how do I get to be an apple analyst?

And yes, for Apple, this is a NICE problem to have.

Jan 28, 08 - 06:23 pm Comment from: Cubert

At least he admitted it.

When did old Sackopotatoes start analysing Apple?

December 2007??

All this guy had to do was watch the local news when this first came out. The newscaster would ask people who bought their iPhones who they bought them for. Half of them bought two and was going to sell the second one on ebay.

What I don't get is how 4 million iPhones that have been sold would have any portion in inventory. I always thought that a product in inventory has not yet been sold. Am I missing something?

When I read this and a couple of the "articles" on The Street, multiple hit pieces by bafoons writing uninformed, compiled rumors to justify themselves. These clowns that are playing this stock, completely have no clue about Apple or any of their products. These F-tards have obviously never spent 5 minutes in an Apple store. As long as these shortsighted, half-assed "writers" and the day traders have an outlet to publish their crap, this stuff will continue. They still view Apple as a luxury brand or a hobby. They just can't accept the fact that people have had enough with MicroSuck. They don't understand this because they are typing their "articles" on a crappy Dell POS. They just love to try to bring Apple down. Another record quarter and more dribble from these assclowns.
............Tools

Jan 28, 08 - 08:08 pm Comment from: silverhawk

larry,
No, you're not missing anything. Toni Saskatchuwan used to be a Micro$oft analyst. If they produce a product they conclude it has to have been sold.

Jan 28, 08 - 09:17 pm Comment from: Steveeee

"... right now, we sell millions millions and millions of phone and Apple sell zero, in six months time, we get the most expensive phone in the world, let's see how it goes...." Steve Ballmer, circa January 2007.
I wonder why nobody icaled this!

..."proven is wrong"...