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Oh Microsoft must be having a great day with that news.

Wait for 2008....! For 10% is just the beginning.

$500!!! And its not a smartphone!

2 Million? I bet they've already sold that many.

What are Neil smoking? Odds are, come tomorrow Apple will issue a PR stating 1 million iPhones have been sold to-date. Only 2 million by years end? Please.

Try 5 - 6 million by years end, which will put Apple and iPhone in the 25% - 30% smart phone market share range.

Neil and his team are not accounting for market dynamics, and the market, due to iPhone is going to shift to iPhone in and of itself. Consumers are now going to want a device that truly does the web, cool navigation and full iPod capabilities. iPhone meets this new expection Apple created, which pushes the entire market to the iPhone solution.

Apple will have another million by the end of September (that would be 2 million there Neil...), and during the Christmas months another 3 - 4 million iPhones will be sold (thats 5 - 6 million iPhones Neil).

I really believe that estimate is much too low.

Christmas is coming and Apple's goose is getting fat.

Didn't I see a report about Wednesday of last week that AT&T;had announced
1 million activations already?

yea, 1 million has already been confirmed, so its a given that they'll easily get 2 million buy the end of the year.
i would say at least 10 million +

If you're uncool, use a pocket protector, carry a big wad of keys on your belt, throw chairs, believe logic is the ultimate determiner of outcomes, then you can't figure out the iPhone. These guys use PC's. Bet on it.

"it needs to deliver on the product. Competitive pricing, of course, will be critical, as will the device's usability and reliability."

Done, done and DONE!!!!

He's making the mistake many analysts make when it comes to Apple's products.
He uses the 'projected' size of the smartphone market as it stands now, and doesn't realize that Apple will create a much bigger market with this device.

In short, a lot of people will be buying an iPhone who would otherwise never have considered a smartphone.

An iWhat?

Charko -- exactly. Apple is "growing the pie" to use an old economics expression. I'm one of those who had no use for a cellphone (basically because of the butteating UIs I've seen and the whole featuritis bs). I am now considering an iPhone. As soon as it has voice recording capability, I'm there.

"yea, 1 million has already been confirmed"

Confirmed by who and/or what?

You're right Charko. If the smartphone market is at 10 million and Apple sells 5 million, then the market could become 15 million and Apple will have 33.3% of the market (assuming the 10 million folks still go and purchase Curves or whatever, but they probably won't- so Apple could have 40-50% of the market.)

Active user base of iPhone will be over 3mil by 1Jan08.

Again, I want the iPhone sans phone. I understand there's a hack and a jump I can do to enable the phone and then select pay-as-I-go service for the phone part.

On topic, I would not be at all surprised to see a 15%+ market share by end of December. I'm sorry I waited as long as I did to buy aapl stock, but I'm really glad I didn't wait any longer.

@ R2

Not so much "confirmed" but maybe "strongly suggested". AT&T;said they'd had over 1 million 'activations', so that's a pretty good indicator. Actually, I like that more than the "20 million copies of Vista crammed into the channel" line. I'd love to know how many copies of Vista were actually activated and in use, but I don't think Ballmer would be so proud of that number.

-c

@Jim Balsillie & Jack Plating
That was great! Thank you.

@R2
That was the famous anonymous source at AT$T.

R2.........D2!

Let's see: 1 million sold in 5 days, that's 200,000 a day.

If I do the math, Strategy Analytics style, they are predicting around 5,650 to be sold daily on average for the rest of the year.

Now there are about 165 Apple stores in the US, and over 1800 AT&T;stores.

That means these morons are predicting just under 3 iPhones/outlet sold daily on average for the rest of the year.

"As soon as it has voice recording capability, I'm there."

We'll as long as we are asking for features that perhaps everyone doesn't want, as soon as they make the end of the iPhone capable of opening a bottle of beer, I'm in.

"1 million sold in 5 days, that's 200,000 a day. If I do the math...."

Youd be wrong. You aren't accounting for a huge initial spike from pent up demand, not to mention weekend sales. No way they sell 200K per day from here on out. Not going to happen.

I have diabetes and I want an iPhone that will test my blood sugar.

Moo, he didn't say that Apple would be selling 200k a day. He merely said that the estimate of selling 5650 per day is too low. And it is. Will they sell 200k from here on out? Of course not. But I'll guarantee they're going to sell a lot more than just 5650 per day.

Unless you think iPhone sells will level off at just 3% of that initial spike.

You should try to read what people actually write.

"As soon as it has voice recording capability, I'm there."

Short term solution. Call your answering machine. Retrieve notes with your PIN. Just a thought.

"We'll as long as we are asking for features that perhaps everyone doesn't want, as soon as they make the end of the iPhone capable of opening a bottle of beer, I'm in."

Check MAKE Magazine. There's probably a DIY hack for that already.

"You should try to read what people actually write."

Sorry some of us are trying to keep up while we work and dont read every little shred of drivel posted on this board.

Don't all beer bottles have twist off caps?

Which brewery is still stuck in the last century?

Too Hot:

Not all of those AT&T;stores will carry the iPhone, only the major stores, so chop that number of AT&T;stores down to about 1/3 of the number (roughly 200). That breaks down to a little over 7 phones per day per outlet. The math still is ludicrous. I'd still double that easily.

"Too Hot:

Not all of those AT&T;stores will carry the iPhone, only the major stores, so chop that number of AT&T;stores down to about 1/3 of the number (roughly 200). That breaks down to a little over 7 phones per day per outlet. The math still is ludicrous. I'd still double that easily."


Woops! Meant to write 600 instead of 200, which would make the total # of outlets to be about 765. Etc.

"Don't all beer bottles have twist off caps?"

Not Rolling Rock, Corona and quite a few others. Most higher priced beers have regular caps.

"every little shred of drivel"

Which is exactly why I strive to make my drivel as intact as possible.

@DavidEGo

from what I have read, all "Company owned" AT$T stores, do and will carry the iPhone

" "We forecast 20 million smartphones to be sold in the USA during 2007"

That was before the iPhone, my family and I (total of 4) never had any interest in a "Smart Phone" but we are buying late this month, (4 total) . I really think, the iPhone is going to increase the "smart phone" market. I realistically (thank God for spell checker) think we will see 5 million sales, and 2/3rds of the buyers were not in the "smart phone" mix

It has already sold 2M.
What was the question?

MDN magic word: why? Why these heteros can´t understand that Apple can do these iPhones Millions in one month and they also sell every single unit.

Apple will sell these GeniusPhones 20 Million pieces this year alone.

MDN Magic Word: simply: Because they can.

Moo wrote: "Sorry some of us are trying to keep up while we work and dont read every little shred of drivel posted on this board."
_________

Moo, that's a strawman. Reading "every shred of drivel" has nothing to do with the fact that you completely missed the point of the post you were responding to.

And now you turn around and completely miss what I was saying as well. Are you stupid?

Very interesting.

Let's look at their numbers: 20 Million smart phones sold in 2007.
So, let's look ahead to 2008. let's say, that the market for smart phones increases to 30 Million, with the increase coming from people buying iPhones where they wouldn't have bought a smart phone before.

Analysts are talking about Apple doing 20 Million iPhones by the end of 2008. We could be looking at Apple owning 50-60% of the total smart phone market by the end of 2008.

With that trend, the iPhone becomes the iPod of the smart phone by 2010, owning 70% of the market.

There will be some chairs flying for sure.

keep in mind, that the total user base for the Blackberry is 9 Million.

uhm........no way.

If this trend continues...

Ayyyyyyyyyyy....

Apple will not kill Blackberry.

Apple is creating a market not destroying someone elses.

Look at iPod use now versus Walkman use 6 years ago.

Apple will generate an entirely new range of people who will want a smart phone in their pocket. The business text nutters are not the target here so comparing iPhone with all the features of any Blackberry is missing the entire point.